260824_ASIC展望_gfhk_asic-outlook-wrapup

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ASIC Outlook Wrap-up - MTK, MRVL, Intel Firming

Jeff Pu, CFA

SFC CE No. BNO719

jeffpu@gfgroup.com.hk

Henry Huang

SFC CE No. BYA749

henryhuang@gfgroup.com.hk

What's New?

Following our recent earnings notes and supply chain research, we provide our view on major ASIC's volume and progress. We continue to like MRVL, MTK and Intel for the positive/intact outlook.

Comments

Nvidia vs. ASIC: Contrary to general perception, we still believe that Nvidia's share will remain stable in 2027, on CoWoS consumption basis at TSMC; together with AMD, we expect GPU share is on an increasing trend (figure 1). As said in our recent Nvidia Preview note on Aug 18 , we believe that Nvidia' Vera Rubin Platform is much ahead of its competitors in performance/TCO/supply chain and is gaining shares in major CSPs such as AWS/GOOG which even have their own ASICs.

TPU dynamics-prefer MTK (2454 TT Buy): We cut Broadcom's Sunfish volumes for 2026/27 on June 16 (our report of June Edition ) due to packaging re -design, and set 460k CoWoS (ASIC) in 2027. Shipments of Sunfish should begin in late -2026 with volume in 1Q27. For 2027, we keep Broadcom's 50k CoWoS estimate to Meta for Iris+ and ARKE, but highlight the difficulty in 2H27 of reallocating capacity back to TPU as MTK's Humufish ramps on N2 advantage. On the other hand, we keep MTK's Zebrafish volumes unchanged at 25k/180k CoWoS for 2026/27. However, investor feedback suggests MTK is more like a funding -short stock amid concerns over Humufish tape -out, Google's slower AI model progress and worries over AMD/MRVL. However, we expect the engineering tape -out to be around Nov-2026, with Google/MTK committing meaningful resources and a manageable pass -rate bar. We continue to prefer MTK over Broadcom.

Google attach silicon-prefer MRVL (Buy): As said in our MRVL report on Aug 20 , we continue to see meaningful contribution from Google's silicon-CXL, DPU, and MPU. We expect ~$3bn each from CXL and DPU by 2028. For MPU, optimized for token generation, we model a 2Q28 start on TSMC N2 and conservatively estimate ~$3bn CY28 revenue. We also view Google's equity partnership as increasing MRVL's chances of securing TPU v10 (Merope) in 2H28. This won't impact MTK, in our view, given that the Icefish engagement already confirmed.

AWS T3/T4-prefer MRVL (Buy) and SMTC (Buy): We continue to expect Marvell to participate in Trainium 3, contributing roughly $1bn/$2bn in CY26/27. For Trainium 4, given the design of NPO scale -up for UALink/NVLink, we believe that Marvell's strengthened scale -up optical networking position post -Celestial AI will lead to an enhanced allocation share, vs. its competitors. Together with a much higher ASP, we expect >$3bn revenue contribution of T4 to MRVL in CY28. For NPO, we expect 6.4T OE to be the primary specs for T4. We forecast AWS will consume 5m/12m OE units for Trainium 4 in 2H27E/2028E. We forecast global OE units to be 11m/40m at optical component's level and like SMT (Buy) for its 2 nd supplier position.

ASIC packaging-prefer Intel (Buy) and ABF substrate names: Per our Intel note on Aug 14 , we raised our back -end revenue forecast to $1.1bn/$7bn in FY27/FY28, supported by better visibility on AWS T3 for EMIB -T in 2027 and major Google Humufish/Triggerfish volumes through 2H27-2028. Looking ahead, we see a path with high likelihood to win back-end business from U.S. fabless including MSFT, QCOM, MRVL, with products across ASIC, CPU and CPO. On supply, we expect ABF substrate to greatly benefit from EMIB.

Risks: 1) AI demand slowdown, 2) infrastructure deployment, 3) supply constraints, 4) competition.

Focus Charts

Figure 1: GPU, vs. ASIC's CoWoS share at TSMC

Nvidia GPU AMD GPU ASIC

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Figure 2: Google TPU volume estimates (units mn)

Old gen v7 (Ghostfish) v8AX (Sunfish/Hellcat) v8x (Zebrafish/Maddog)

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Figure 3: Meta ASIC volume estimates (units mn)

Old gen

v1 (Athena)

v1.5 (Iris)

ARKE

Total

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Figure 4: Google TPU Roadmap

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Please be sure to read the disclosures at the end of this report carefully.

Figure 5: Meta ASIC Roadmap

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Figure 6: NPO OE shipment forecast

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Please be sure to read the disclosures at the end of this report carefully.

Figure 7: Intel's backend revenue forecast (USD bn)

Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage

Risks

• 1) AI demand slowdown, 2) infrastructure deployment, 3) supply constraints, 4) competition.

Rating definitions

Benchmark: Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong)

Company ratings Buy

Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10 %

Hold

Expected stock relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%

Underperform

Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%

Sector ratings

Positive

Sector expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%

Neutral

Expected sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%

Cautious

Sector expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%

Hong Kong Company

GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage Limited

Address

27/F, GF Tower, 81 Lockhart Road, Wan Chai, Hong Kong

Telephone

(852) 37191111

Email

evanlee @gfgroup.com.hk