報告_MS_TPCA2026觀展_20261026

PDF 原檔：報告_MS_TPCA2026觀展_20261026_original.pdf

原始內容

M Idea October 26, 2026 01:42 PM GMT

Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific 2026 TPCA Show Takeaways

In our PCB supply chain coverage, our order of preference is TUC, EMC, Co-Tech, UMTC, NYPCB, and GCE, based on upside to our price targets.

Key Takeaways

• PTFE offers the est SI ut is harder to process; TW CCL makers are less ullish on PTFE and are also exploring HC, HC+PTFE hy rid & BCB. ■
• Thin E-glass cloth shortages and price hikes to last through 1H27, at least, as looms stay scarce and lines shift to LDK/T-glass. ■
• EPM's ABF laminators (95%+ glo al share) are a key ottleneck to ABF su strate expansion, with 2+ year lead times and no new greenfield capacity until 2029. ■
• Glass core su strate is likely not commercially via le in the next 2-3 years, with crack inspection after ABF lamination currently eing pro lematic. ■

Implications to our coverage: If next-gen AI server racks do not adopt PTFE- ased CCL, we think the outcome would skew positive for EMC and TUC ut slightly negative for Shengyi. We expect the material choice to e confirmed y mid-2027 at the latest. Additionally, with EMC expecting its su strate CCL capacity to more than dou le y end-2028, Unimicron and other su strate makers gain an alternative supply source, which we view as positive. Su strate CCL carries higher gross margins than PCB CCL, so a higher contri ution from this usiness should improve EMC's profita ility as S572T ramps from 4Q26. On ABF su strate, lead times of at least two years for key equipment such as EPM's ABF laminators imply that new greenfield ABF su strate capacity can only ramp from 2029 onwards. This aligns with our view that ABF su strate undersupply will deepen in 2027-28. Su strate sizes going to 230mm x 230mm y 2028, implying only 4 su strates per panel, is also supportive of our positive view on demand. This would make it very difficult to control yield, as one area of defect on the panel would imply 25% yield loss.

PTFE CCL: Adoption of glass cloth-free PTFE CCLs in next-gen AI server systems was the topic investors asked a out most at the ooths. As we have written previously (here and here), pure PTFE CCLs could deliver the est signal integrity (SI), making them the preferred solution for midplane/switch PCBs for some customers. However, their processa ility at PCB makers remains a challenge for now, particularly for high-layer-count oards. In addition, multilayer oards (MLBs) using PTFE require special high-temperature presses capa le of reaching close to 400°C, as standard vacuum presses are insufficient. In response, Taiwanese CCL suppliers are also exploring other materials that could deliver M10-and- eyond performance, including hydrocar on (HC)- ased, HC+PTFE hy rid and enzocyclo utene (BCB)- ased CCLs. We expect the CCL material for the next-gen AI server rack to e confirmed y mid-2027 at the latest.

Other key takeaways can be found on the following page.

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+

Howard Kao

Equity Analyst

H ward.Ka @m rganstanley.c m

+886 2 2730-2989

Irene Yen

Equity Analyst Irene.Yen@m rganstanley.c m

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Andy Meng, CFA

Equity Analyst Andy.Meng@m rganstanley.c m

+886 2 2730-2869

+852 2239-7689

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Greater China Technology Hardware

Asia Pacific Industry View In-Line

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Substrate CCL: S572T, the most advanced su strate CCL on display at EMC's ooth, enters mass production in 4Q26, with volumes expected to increase sequentially throughout 2027. EMC expects its su strate CCL capacity to more than dou le from current levels y end-2028 and said it will have multiple major ABF su strate customers. It added that it has qualified additional low-CTE glass sources to ensure sufficient supply.

Glass cloth shortage: Several CCL suppliers still cite thin E-glass cloth as the key material ottleneck. They generally expect the shortage to persist through 1H27 with continued price hikes, and one supplier elieves it could last through late 2027. In their view, the tightness in electronic-grade glass cloth stems from insufficient supply of Japanese-made looms, as well as from existing glass cloth suppliers either prioritizing in-house demand or converting production lines to LDK1/2 and T-glass cloth to meet strong AI demand. One glass cloth supplier noted it remains reluctant to adopt non-Toyota looms given the higher defect rates and repair costs.

BF laminator: We also visited the ooth of Eternal Materials (1717.TW, Not Covered), whose su sidiary Eternal Precision Mechanics (EPM, 7795.TW, Not Covered) holds 95%+ glo al market share in vacuum laminators used to laminate ABF onto su strate cores. EPM's ABF laminators are now one of the key ottlenecks in ABF su strate capacity expansion. Our checks with EPM suggest equipment lead times have stretched to at least two years and EPM's new greenfield capacity will not come online until 2029; until then, EPM can only de ottleneck y optimizing existing capacity and leasing idle capacity from third parties. For context, a new ABF su strate plant may require at least 10 sets of EPM's most advanced three-stage vacuum laminator and pre-track machine, depending on factory layout.

Glass core substrate: Microcracks and the resulting package relia ility issues are currently the two key technical ottlenecks for glass core su strates. Existing automated optical inspection (AOI) tools struggle to detect and identify microcracks in the glass core, and laminating multiple layers of Ajinomoto Build-up Film (ABF) onto it makes inspection impossi le, according to Shinko. One equipment supplier also flagged metallization of high-aspect-ratio through-glass vias (TGVs) as very challenging. We understand this supplier is not involved in copper pillar mass transfer, an alternative approach to TGV metallization.

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