PDF 原檔：報告_GS_摺疊iPhone供應鏈_20260910_original.pdf
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GC Tech: Foldable and A ff ordable
As we had previously expected (see our Aug 2024 report link), Apple has launched its fi rst foldable iPhone: the iPhone Duo, with: (1) Design for a wide audience : 5.4' / 7.6' folded / unfolded size, which can be held in one hand, fi ts in a pocket, and is the thinnest iPhone ever, meaning it is easy to carry, and can penetrate to a wider population. The phone also supports Apple pencil, which could also attract pencil users. (2) The latest technology with new form factor : hinges with more than 100 tiny precision components (read more: SZS), an under-display front camera (read more: Largan), and the next generation of Vapor Chamber (read more: AVC, AAC). The new form factor will also bring new use cases, which should also help to attract consumers. (3) A ff ordable price: starting from US$1,999, despite high memory costs and strong speci fi cation (for context, the Samsung Galaxy Z Fold8 Ultra launched in the US starting from US$2,099.99). We have seen consumers upgrade toward premium models in foldable phones: Huawei enjoyed 50% global market share in 2Q26 with blended ASP at US$1,600 (vs. an average of US$1,452 for global foldable phones). We are positive on the Apple supply chain (Exhibit 2) and continue to expect foldable iPhones shipments at 14m / 35m in 2026E in our base / bull case. Buy: Hon Hai (on CL), SZS, AVC, Lingyi, Luxshare, VPEC, FII, Largan, NYPCB (on CL), EMC, ZDT, Kinsus, Delta, and TSMC.
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Verena Jeng
+852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Michael Ng, CFA
+1(212)902-8618 | michael.ng@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
Chao Wang
+886(2)2730-4195 | kuan- chao.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch
Evelyn Yu
+886(2)2730-4187 | evelyn.yu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch
Ting Song
+852-2978-6466 | ting.song@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Yifan Hu
+852-2978-0996 | yifan.hu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
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Goldman Research sachs
Initiation
Taiwan Technology
EQUITY RESEARCH | August 22, 2024 | 11:25PM HKT
Exhibit 1: Our report on foldable iPhone from Aug 2024
Foldable, Al server and satellite early-stage product cycles - initiate SZS, Chenbro, WNC at Buy
We Turthier expano our coverage into 3 areas where we are positive and see the product cycle at an early stade, ses)
(foldable), Chenbro (Al server), and WNC (satellite) are well positioned with leading technologies and customer bases. in opportunities. Our Al server BOM analysis points to 7x more dollar value per rack for the components supply chain vs.
we introduce new global research on Ai server value breakdown and foldable phones bull case market neneral servers, while our bull case for foldable phones shows up to 96% additional shioment alobally once Apole join*
the camp in 2026-27E.
Looking ahead, we identify Foldable, Al, and Satellite as product and infrastructure cycles that are set to drive the value
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Key debates: Valuation and market outlook coutd be key debates. 525, Chenbro and WNC currently trade at 24x, 11x,
12x 2025E PE, attractive considering strong earnings growth ahead. We see additional 87%/120% upside to SZS NI in
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respectively), showing the market has yet to appreciate the new technology- alwan Technology, Buy: (1) Al servers ODMs / Brands: Hon Hai, Quanta, Wiwynn, Wistron, Gigabyte, ASUS; (2) Al server
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Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max: (1) Cooling: the new iPhone is embedded with a more powerful SoC (A20 Pro) and Apple Intelligence, making thermal management essential to the device. The next generation of Vapor Chamber is used in the new iPhones, which we see as positive for the cooling suppliers. Read more: AVC, AAC; (2) Camera: variable aperture is adopted in rear cameras, in which lens aperture changes based on the focal length, allowing easier user control of DoF (depth of fi eld), taking pictures in low lighting, or having a more natural broken gradient background when in portrait mode. Read more: Largan. Selling price is higher by US$100 (or high single-digit %) compared to iPhone 17 Pro series, with the same delivery time.
Apple Watch and Airpods: Airpods 5 feature active noise cancellation, and are designed to allow more natural interaction (e.g. transparency mode, better conversation awareness). The wireless charging case models are US$30 cheaper compared to Airpods 4. Apple Watch 12 and Ultra 4 are priced the same as the previous generation with better speci fi cations: health sensing system with the most accurate heart rate sensing in a wearable, Siri recap, audio intelligence, etc.
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Exhibit 2: Greater China Tech supply chain's revenue exposure to Apple by company
| Total Apple | exposure in 2026E | Revenue | Revenue | Revenue | Revenue | Revenue | Revenue | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Company | Ticker | Analyst | Sales exposure | OP exposure | Products/services | iPhone | iPad | Watch exposure | Macbook by end | Air Pod products in 2026E | MR | Others |
| Camera / IR filters | Camera / IR filters | Camera / IR filters | Camera / IR filters | Camera / IR filters | Camera / IR filters | |||||||
| Sunny Optical 2382.HK | Sunny Optical 2382.HK | Allen Chang | 4% | 5% | Handset lens | 4% | <1% | 0% | <1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Largan 3008.TW | Largan 3008.TW | Verena Jeng | 45-50% | 45-50% | Handset lens | 40-45% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | <5% | 0% |
| Semiconductors | Semiconductors | Semiconductors | Semiconductors | Semiconductors | Semiconductors | |||||||
| Win Semi | 3105.TWO | Chao Wang | 35-40% | 35-40% | PA, VCSEL | 35% | 1-2% | 0% | 1% | 0% | <1% | 0% |
| TSMC | 2330.TW | Evelyn Yu | 20-25% | 18-22% | Logic foundry | 15-18% | <3% | <1% | <3% | <1% | <1% | 0% |
| JCET | 600584.SS | Allen Chang | 25-30% | 25-30% | IC packaging, SiP | 10-15% | 5-10% | <5% | 0% | <5% | 0% | 0% |
| VPEC | 2455.TW | Verena Jeng | 10-20% | 10-15% | PA epi-wafer | 10-15% | <1% | <1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Acoustics | Acoustics | Acoustics | Acoustics | Acoustics | Acoustics | |||||||
| AAC | 2018.HK | Allen Chang | 30-35% | 35-40% | Acoustics, haptics, Notebook casing | 20% | 1-2% | <1% | <5% | 1-2% | 0% | <5% |
| Panel / Touch panel / backlight module | Panel / Touch panel / backlight module | Panel / Touch panel / backlight module | Panel / Touch panel / backlight module | Panel / Touch panel / backlight module | Panel / Touch panel / backlight module | Panel / Touch panel / backlight module | Panel / Touch panel / backlight module | Panel / Touch panel / backlight module | Panel / Touch panel / backlight module | Panel / Touch panel / backlight module | Panel / Touch panel / backlight module | Panel / Touch panel / backlight module |
| BOE | 000725.SZ | Verena Jeng | 10-20% | 10-20% | Panels | 5-15% | <5% | 0% | <5% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Metal precision parts | Metal precision parts | Metal precision parts | Metal precision parts | Metal precision parts | Metal precision parts | |||||||
| Lingyi | 002600.SZ | Allen Chang | 25-35% | 45-55% | Precision components and modules | 25-30% | <5% | <5% | <5% | <5% | <5% | 3% |
| SZS | 3376.TW | Allen Chang | 75-85% | 80-85% | Hinges | 40-45% | 5-10% | <5% | <5% | 25-30% | <5% | <5% |
| PCB | PCB | PCB | PCB | PCB | PCB | PCB | PCB | PCB | PCB | PCB | PCB | PCB |
| EMC | 2383.TW | Chao Wang | <5% | 5-10% | CCL | 3% | <1% | 0% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Unimicron | 3037.TW | Chao Wang | 20-25% | 20-25% | PCB / BT (AiP) / ABF | 5-10% | <5% | <5% | 5-10% | <3% | <3% | <3% |
| NYPCB | 8046.TW | Chao Wang | 15-20% | 15-20% | PCB / BT (SiP) | 5-10% | <5% | 5-10% | <5% | 5-10% | <3% | 0% |
| ZDT | 4958.TW | Chao Wang | 60-65% | 60-65% | PCB | 40-45% | 5-10% | <5% | 5-10% | <5% | <3% | 1-3% |
| Kinsus | 3189.TW | Chao Wang | 20-25% | 25-30% | BT (AiP) | 10-15% | 5-10% | <5% | <5% | 1% | <3% | 1% |
| Casing | Casing | Casing | Casing | Casing | Casing | Casing | Casing | Casing | Casing | Casing | Casing | Casing |
| FII | 601138.SS | Verena Jeng | 0-5% | 5-10% | Metal middle frame | 0-5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Battery / thermal modules / cable | Battery / thermal modules / cable | Battery / thermal modules / cable | Battery / thermal modules / cable | Battery / thermal modules / cable | Battery / thermal modules / cable | Battery / thermal modules / cable | Battery / thermal modules / cable | Battery / thermal modules / cable | Battery / thermal modules / cable | Battery / thermal modules / cable | Battery / thermal modules / cable | Battery / thermal modules / cable |
| Delta | 2308.TW | Chao Wang | 10-15% | 10-15% | Power supplies, Inductor | 5-10% | <3% | 0% | <5% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| AVC | 3017.TW | Allen Chang | 5% | 5% | Thermal modules | 5% | <1% | 0% | <1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| ODM / EMS | ODM / EMS | ODM / EMS | ODM / EMS | ODM / EMS | ODM / EMS | ODM / EMS | ODM / EMS | ODM / EMS | ODM / EMS | ODM / EMS | ODM / EMS | ODM / EMS |
| Hon Hai | 2317.TW | Allen Chang | 30-35% | 35-40% | EMS/ODM, metal middle frame | 20-25% | 5% | 1% | 5% | <5% | <5% | <5% |
| BYDE | 0285.HK | Verena Jeng | 40-45% | 40-45% | ODM, casing | 15-20% | 15-20% | <5% | - | - | 0% | - |
| Quanta | 2382.TW | Allen Chang | 5-10% | 5-10% | EMS/ODM | - | - | - | 5-10% | - | - | - |
| Pegatron | 4938.TW | Verena Jeng | 57% | 50% | ODM | 57% | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Luxshare | 2475.HK | Verena Jeng | 50-55% | 40-45% | ODM, connectors, acoustics/haptics | 20-35% | <5% | 10-15% | 10-15% | 5-10% | 0% | <5% |
| Equipment | Equipment | Equipment | Equipment | Equipment | Equipment | Equipment | Equipment | Equipment | Equipment | Equipment | Equipment | Equipment |
| ASMPT | 0522.HK | Allen Chang | <5% | <5% | SMT equipment | <5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
Exhibit 3: Recent smartphone launches (late Aug - Sep 2026)
Data for Vivo X500 Pro and Huawei Mate 90 Pro Max is based on news; For OPPO Find X10, Xiaomi 18 Pro Max and HONOR Magic9 Pro, used last generation's price for reference.
Source: Company data, news reports, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
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Exhibit 4: Smartphone models pipeline
As of Sep 10, 2026.
Source: Company data
Exhibit 5: Prices and ratings of mentioned companies
| Company name | Ticker | Rating | Currency | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Company name | Ticker | Rating | Currency | 9-Sep-26 |
| Largan | 3008.TW | Buy | TWD | 6,870.0 |
| TSMC | 2330.TW | Buy | TWD | 2,465.0 |
| VPEC | 2455.TW | Buy | TWD | 533.0 |
| Lingyi | 002600.SZ | Buy | CNY | 12.4 |
| SZS | 3376.TW | Buy | TWD | 206.0 |
| EMC | 2383.TW | Buy | TWD | 5,375.0 |
| NYPCB | 8046.TW | *Buy | TWD | 1,110.0 |
| ZDT | 4958.TW | Buy | TWD | 502.0 |
| Kinsus | 3189.TW | Buy | TWD | 812.0 |
| FII | 601138.SS | Buy | CNY | 65.2 |
| Delta | 2308.TW | Buy | TWD | 1,795.0 |
| AVC | 3017.TW | Buy | TWD | 3,380.0 |
| Hon Hai | 2317.TW | *Buy | TWD | 252.0 |
| Luxshare | 002475.SZ | Buy | CNY | 55.9 |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
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