報告_MS_AI供應鏈CoWoS分配_20260708

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M July 8, 2026 06:45 AM GMT

Asia-Pacific Technology | Asia Pacific

AI Supply Chain: Further Updates on 2027 CoWoS Allocation and ASIC Dynamics

AMD's 2027 CoWoS allocation remains at 240k for now, with combined MI455/MI450 shipments at 1.5mn. TPU MP timing skews toward 4Q. Blackwell chip "inventory" turned out to be a supply chain buffer and will be fully consumed by 2026. We expect ~7mn Rubin chips and 90k NVL72 racks in 2027.

Further updates on our AMD CoWoS allocation: We published our preliminary 2027 CoWoS allocation last week and received many investor queries on AMD's (covered by Joe Moore) CoWoS number. Some MI300 series and upcoming MI500 production will still run in 2027. However, the MI400 series will come in two versions: (1) MI455: the standard version with 2 compute dies and 12 HBM4 12hi, paired with the Helios rack (18 CPUs and 72 GPUs), with Microsoft, AWS, and Oracle as key customers; (2) MI450: a Meta-customized, half-size chip paired with 1 compute die and 6 HBM4 12hi (9 CPUs and 36 GPUs). We still expect AMD's 2027 CoWoS at 240k, but do not rule out execution risk, given its prior record of trimming CoWoS bookings in 2026. 2027 chip shipments: MI455 1mn and MI450 500k. For CPU, Venice is AMD's first CPU adopting CoWoS, and we see CoW production concentrated in OSATs-ASE/SPIL, Amkor, and Powertech. Total CPU chip shipments could reach 5.7-6mn units in 2027 vs. 1mn in 2026.

Google TPU progress update: Our industry checks suggest KYEC's 3Q26 revenue could grow close to 10% Q/Q, below our initial 15% Q/Q expectation, mainly due to slight Rubin and Sunfish delays and MediaTek's smartphone SoC order trim. We do see Sunfish shipments largely in 4Q, with full-year volume at 960k units. With Sunfish and Rubin pushed out, we believe more revenue will concentrate in 4Q26 or 1Q27 without order cuts. Many investors asked about Zebrafish delays; we still see its 4Q26 volume ramp unchanged.

Comparing the Blackwell chip/rack shipment and Rubin chip/rack shipment: We

provided a chip vs. rack shipment comparison for Blackwell in last June's AI tracker. We now include HGX (8-GPU per server) in our chip consumption model, and treat 9 HGX servers as equivalent to one NVL72 rack. We expect 5.4mn Blackwell units in 2026, and chip volume could meet Grace Blackwell NVL72 demand by 2H26. Our latest checks also suggest close to 7mn Rubin and Rubin Ultra units in 2027, while total Rubin NVL72 server racks could reach 90k in 2027 ( Exhibit 12 ). All Blackwell chip "inventory" turned out to be a supply-chain buffer and will be fully consumed by 2026, so we see no need to worry about inventory issues. We think Rubin will follow a similar pattern.

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Meta ASIC progress update: On the other hand, Meta cancelled its original 2nm ASIC Olympus earlier this year; a new 2nm chip, code-named Apollo, succeeds it. Broadcom (covered by Joe Moore) will continue design services, with mass production in 1Q28. For GUC, we think it is likely to win one of the Meta ASIC projects led by the Rivos team, possibly a side project from the usual MTIA product line. The AI ASIC targets tape-out in 1H27, with potential CoWoS out by 2027 year-end or 1H28.

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Introducing Our 2027 Global CoWoS Capacity Update And Comparing Chip Shipments vs. Racks

We published our preliminary 2027 CoWoS allocation last week and received lots of investor queries around AMD's (covered by Joe Moore) CoWoS number. There will still be some production of the MI300 series and the upcoming MI500 in 2027.

However, for the MI400 series, there will be two versions coming: 1) MI455: the standard version, including 2 compute dies and 12 HBM4 12hi, pairing with the Helios rack (18 CPUs and 72 GPUs), with key customers being Microsoft, AWS and Oracle; 2) MI450: customized version for Meta, with the chip being half size pairing with 1 compute die and 6 HBM4 12hi (9 CPUs and 36 GPUs) (see Exhibit 1 ). We still expect AMD's CoWoS to be 240k in 2027, but do not rule out execution risk, given its prior record of trimming CoWoS bookings in 2026. We estimate chip shipments in 2027 will be 1mn for MI455 and 500k for MI450.

For CPU, Venice is AMD's first CPU to adopt CoWoS, and we see CoW production concentrating in OSATs, including ASE/SPIL, Amkor and Powertech. We expect total chip shipments of 5.7-6mn units in 2027 vs. 1mn units in 2026.

Exhibit 1: AI HBM consumption: up to 50bn Gb in 2027

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates. Note: Estimates are compiled using our Asian supply chain checks.

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Exhibit 2: AI wafer consumption: at least US$47bn in 2027

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates. Note: Estimates are compiled using our Asian supply chain checks.

Exhibit 3: CoWoS allocation breakdown by CoW vendor

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates. Note: Estimates are compiled using our Asian supply chain checks.

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Exhibit 4: Global CoWoS demand breakdown: 2026e vs. 2027e

Global CoWoS capacity demand by key customer

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates; note: estimates are complied using our supply chain checks

Exhibit 5: Global CoWoS demand Y/Y growth profile

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates; note: estimates are complied using our supply chain checks

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Exhibit 6: Global CoWoS capacity expansion by year end and by vendor

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates

Exhibit 8:

AI HBM consumption: up to 30bn Gb in 2026

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates. Note: Estimates are compiled using our Asian supply chain checks.

Exhibit 9: AI wafer consumption: at least US$26bn in 2026

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates. Note: Estimates are compiled using our Asian supply chain checks.

Exhibit 7: Global CoWoS consumption, by customer

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates; note: estimates are compiled using our supply chain checks

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Aligning Blackwell and Rubin chip to HGX/Rack Shipments

We did an analysis of Blackwell chip shipments vs. racks in our last June AI tracker. We think TSMC's Blackwell chip output (calculated by CoWoS-L capacity) aligns more closely with strong demand (as measured by AI capex). We now include HGX (8-GPU per server) in our chip consumption model and treat 9 HGX servers as equivalent to one NVL72 rack. We expect 5.4mn Blackwell units in 2026, and chip volume could meet Grace Blackwell NVL72 demand by 2H26. Our latest checks also suggest close to 7mn Rubin and Rubin Ultra units in 2027, while total Rubin NVL72 server racks could reach 90k in 2027 ( Exhibit 12 ). All Blackwell chip "inventory" turned out to be a supply-chain buffer and will be fully consumed by 2026, so we see no need to worry about inventory issues. We think Rubin will follow a similar pattern. Rubin will start ramping in 3Q26, with rack shipments starting in 4Q26.

Exhibit 10: (old) Blackwell chip vs. GB NVL72 rack shipment

Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Exhibit 11: (new) Blackwell chip vs. GB NVL72 and HGX equivalent rack shipment

Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Exhibit 12: Rubin chip shipments vs. VR NVL72 rack shipments

Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Quarterly shipment (mn units)

3k NVL72

4Q26e

1Q27e

• Rubin chip volume (LHS)

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AI semis - stock implications, P/E multiples, revenue exposure

Exhibit 13: P/E multiple trend of AI semis

Note: Alternative AI semis group: AMD, Alchip, Andes, Marvell, Broadcom. AI semi enablers group: TSMC, Synopsys, Cadence, ASML, BESI, Ibiden, KYEC, Advantest. Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research.

Exhibit 14: We still expect AI chip revenue to rise QoQ

Source: Company data, Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley US Research (e) estimates.

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Exhibit 15: TSMC's AI-related revenue 2024-29e CAGR could reach 60%

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates

AI GPU and ASIC rental price tracker

Exhibit 16: AI GPU H100 per GPU per hour as of end-March

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Exhibit 17: AI ASIC equivalent computing power - 16x Inferentia 2 per hour

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

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Exhibit 18: NVIDIA 5090 graphic cards pricing has rebounded recently, mainly in response to market expectations for price hikes and strong AI inference demand from China

Source: TaoBao, Morgan Stanley Research, various media (e.g., Vice, Jan. 3, 2026)

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Key Featured Reports on the AI Supply Chain

Asia-Pacific Technology: AI Supply Chain: Preliminary 2027 TSMC CoWoS Allocation (23 Jun 2026)

Asia-Pacific Technology: AI Supply Chain: Cloud Capex Strength; More CoWoS Allocation for TPU (7 May 2026)

Asia-Pacific Technology: AI Supply Chain: Addressing Questions on Nvidia GPU/LPU and Google TPU (9 Apr 2026)

Greater China Semiconductors: AI Supply Chain Tracker: Key Investor Feedback from GTC/ OFC (23 Mar 2026)

Asia Technology: AI Supply Chain: CPO and ASIC Dynamic Update (3 Mar 2026)

Asia-Pacific Technology: AI Supply Chain: CES implications, ASIC production, China AI chips (6 Jan 2026)

Foundation

Technology: Rise of the AI Agent - Global Implications (19 Apr 2026)

Global Technology: Supply-chain Reorientation (24 Jul 2025)

Global Technology: China - AI: The Sleeping Giant Awakens (13 May 2025)

Global Technology: AI Cloud Capex in the Spotlight (26 Feb 2025)

Global Semiconductors: AI ASIC 2.0: Potential winners (15 Dec 2024)

Global Technology: Global Technology - Dawn of the AI Smartphone Era: Edge AI - Apple Intelligence Fuels Innovation - More Charts, Fewer Words (17 Jul 2024)

Global Technology: AI PCs To Usher In The Next Leg Of PC Market Growth (21 May, 2024)

Key upstream AI supply chain companies

WinWay Technology Co Ltd: AI/HPC Continue to Drive Stronger 3Q Revenue; OW (6 Jul 2026)

ASMPT Ltd: 2Q26 Preview: OSAT and PCB - Dual Growth Engines (6 Jul 2026)

Asia-Pacific Technology: Connecting Dots in Tech Supply Chain: CoPoS, T-Glass/TPU, Glassbridge/FAU (6 Jul 2026)

Greater China Semiconductors: CPO Supply Chain Updates; More on GlassBridge (5 Jul 2026)

Hygon Information Technology Co., Ltd.: Integrated CPU+GPU Compute Platform; Initiate at OW (2 Jul 2026)

Greater China Semiconductors: Old memory: Near-term outlook remains positive (1 Jul 2026)

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Idea

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