報告_Macquarie_TPCA2026_20261026

PDF 原檔：報告_Macquarie_TPCA2026_20261026_original.pdf

圖片清單（已驗證 2026-10-28）

原始內容

PCB / Substrates

TPCA takeaways - PTFE and expanding supply tightness

What's new

• We attended the TPCA show during Oct 20-22 and hosted meetings with industry experts. Product readiness/adoption between PTFE and M9-M11 CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) was the most discussed topic. Investors also tried to find new stock ideas under expanding industry shortages from production equipment, raw materials, to PCB products.

Why it matters

• PTFE - PCB yield the main bottleneck while alternative solutions catch up: Nvidia showcasing PTFE (Polytetrafluoroethylene) NVLink board at OCP (Oct 14) revived the discussion about PTFE CCL used in Nvidia switch trays. While PTFE posses exceptionally low Dk (latency) and Df (signal loss) for a CCL material, PCB processability and production yield remain the biggest hurdles due to its softness and high CTE (Coefficient of Thermal Expansion) that leads to misregistration, warpage and difficulty of drilling/ lamination. Our checks with some Nvidia PCB partners suggest <10% yield rate currently. ESG risk is another issue for wide adoption. Meanwhile, traditional CCL is migrating to M9/10/11, with or without Qglass/glass fibre, improving electrical performance with relatively better PCB processability. We believe PTFE is more of a transitional/niche alternative before the traditional CCL solution further improves.
• Copper foil and substrate's CCL could be the next bottleneck: We continue to see tightness or shortages across the PCB supply chain, and end customers are making prepayment/capex sponsorships (for substrates) or signing LTAs to secure the supply. We expect continued price hikes for ABF substrates in 2027-28, and likely the same for PCB's CCL, due to supply tightness and fast migrations. During our exchanges with PCB experts, highend copper foil (HVLP4 or above) is getting tighter as adoption increases on new AI server launches, which could lead to price hike towards end of the year. And after Tglass shortage eases on Nittobo (3110 JP, NR)'s expansion in 2027, substrate's CCL could become the next bottleneck. This aligns with EMC's strategy to expand its substrate's CCL business from 2027.

What now

• We believe EMC's recent correction on PTFE is overdone as the technology is still far from mature and company also has PTFE-hybrid solutions under development alongside M9/10 upgrades. Its substrate's CCL business also looks well-positioned under increasing industry tightness and needs for diversification. For the CCL supply chain, we also like Doosan as the main Nvidia compute tray CCL supplier.
• For substrates, we prefer leading players like Unimicron and Ibiden on higher AI exposure to benefit more from the spec upgrades and industry shortages.

Technology Hardware & Equipment Taiwan

James Lee

Figure 1 - Valuation table

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, Oct 2026 (closing price as of Oct 22 for TW stocks and as of Oct 23 for JP, KS stocks)

Analysts

Kaylin Tsai

8862 2734 7523

kaylin.tsai@macquarie.com

Macquarie Capital Limited, Taiwan Securities Branch