PDF 原檔：報告_GS_台灣ODM品牌_營收前瞻_20261028_original.pdf
原始內容
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
Taiwan ODM/Brands: 3-month preview: new AI server racks and smartphone models to drive growth in coming months
We preview 3-month revenues for 8 companies under our coverage in the AI server/PC supply chain, and update our estimates for Asus, Compal, Inventec and Pegatron. Across the supply chain, we are positive on: (1) Apple's supply chain on the back of a ramp-up of new models with form factor changes (i.e. foldable phones in 2026, and the iPhone 20 in 2027) to support end demand; (2) AI server components to ride on specification upgrades; and (3) ASIC AI servers' rising penetration rate. Buy: Hon Hai, Wiwynn, Wistron; Neutral: Quanta, Inventec, Compal, ASUS; Sell: Pegatron.
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Verena Jeng
+852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Chao Wang
+886(2)2730-4195 | kuanchao.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch
Al Wang
+886(2)2730-4081 | al.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch
On a MoM basis, we expect the average revenue growth of the 8 companies to come in at -2%/ 0%/ 1% in Oct / Nov/ Dec 2026 (Exhibit 1). We expect largely unchanged revenue in the coming months, mainly on the AI server model transition and the modest consumer electronic products demand under high memory costs and consumption pull-in.
On a YoY basis, we expect the average revenue growth of the 8 companies to come in at +68%/ +60%/ +44% in Oct / Nov / Dec 2026 (Exhibit 2), driven by the continuous ramp-up of AI servers, along with a PC product mix upgrade, new smartphone models, and high memory costs driving up the selling price.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
Exhibit 1: Sep 2026E revenue MoM
Exhibit 2: Sep 2026E revenue YoY
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Jul 2026 to Dec 2026 revenue trends for Taiwan server / PC names
Exhibit 3: Taiwan PC/server names monthly revenue summary
| Rev YoY - Jul-26 | Rev YoY - Aug-26 | Rev YoY - Sep-26 | Rev YoY - Oct-26(E) | Rev YoY - Nov-26(E) | Rev YoY - Dec-26(E) | Rev MoM - Jul-26 | Rev MoM - Aug-26 | Rev MoM - Sep-26 | Rev MoM - Oct-26(E) | Rev MoM - Nov-26(E) | Rev MoM - Dec-26(E) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wiwynn | 39% | 50% | 100% | 74% | 56% | 51% | 6% | 23% | 20% | -8% | -5% | 5% |
| Quanta | 131% | 177% | 77% | 88% | 70% | 51% | -5% | 16% | -23% | 0% | 1% | 25% |
| Wistron | 61% | 166% | 87% | 116% | 54% | 87% | -4% | 49% | -17% | 5% | 8% | 10% |
| Inventec | 66% | 36% | 63% | 58% | 50% | 36% | -12% | -8% | 18% | -12% | -10% | 12% |
| Asus | 53% | 51% | 18% | 36% | 28% | 18% | -21% | 13% | 2% | -7% | -5% | -4% |
| Compal | 38% | 15% | 35% | 49% | 46% | 43% | -15% | -17% | 40% | -2% | -1% | 3% |
| Hon Hai | 54% | 52% | 38% | 40% | 62% | 84% | 15% | -3% | 26% | 8% | 9% | 16% |
| Pegatron | 12% | 34% | 87% | 83% | 113% | -15% | -6% | 3% | 143% | 0% | 0% | -61% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 4: Taiwan ODM notebook monthly shipment
| Sep-25 | Oct-25 | Nov-25 | Dec-25 | Jan-26 | Feb-26 | Mar-26 | Apr-26 | May-26 | Jun-26 | Jul-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notebook shipments (m units) | 12.0 | 10.1 | 10.4 | 11.8 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 13.8 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 12.0 | 8.2 | 7.3 | 9.7 |
| Quanta | 4.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 4.2 |
| Compal | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Inventec | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Wistron | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Pegatron | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| YoY | |||||||||||||
| Quanta | -6% | 9% | -3% | -9% | -4% | -35% | 8% | 6% | -8% | -10% | -30% | -37% | -9% |
| Compal | -14% | -25% | -15% | 4% | -30% | -29% | -3% | -18% | -17% | -4% | -22% | -39% | -32% |
| Inventec | 6% | -6% | 0% | 0% | 13% | -6% | 16% | -12% | -17% | 14% | -6% | -17% | -5% |
| Wistron | 16% | 17% | 29% | 44% | 13% | 7% | 47% | 6% | -6% | -17% | -20% | -36% | -32% |
| Pegatron | 0% | 41% | 12% | 23% | 15% | -26% | -4% | -14% | -26% | -34% | -47% | -48% | -44% |
| MoM / QoQ | |||||||||||||
| Quanta | 12% | -24% | 0% | 11% | -31% | -26% | 165% | -34% | 0% | 29% | -38% | -7% | 62% |
| Compal | 9% | -16% | 10% | 4% | -33% | -6% | 87% | -36% | 11% | 20% | -25% | -22% | 21% |
| Inventec | 6% | -16% | 6% | 18% | -15% | -12% | 47% | -32% | 0% | 60% | -33% | -6% | 20% |
| Wistron | 0% | -5% | 5% | 18% | -35% | -6% | 75% | -36% | -6% | 18% | -20% | -13% | 7% |
| Pegatron | 0% | -6% | -10% | 32% | -24% | -39% | 59% | -22% | 10% | 13% | -38% | 6% | 8% |
Source: Company data
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
Hon Hai (2317.TW; Buy, on CL): New AI server racks and Foldable phones to drive 4Q26E
We expect Hon Hai's monthly revenues to continue sequential growth through Dec 2026, leading 4Q26 revenues to grow at +39% QoQ, driven by: (1) AI data center: The next-generation AI server racks and CPO switches ramp-up, with higher ASP and early delivery. We expect Hon Hai to be the first to deliver the latest model, around 2-3 months ahead of peers, driving its Oct and onward revenue growth. Followed by GPU-powered AI server racks, the LPU-powered AI server racks should fuel the growth in Dec and onward, supporting the YoY increase in 1Q27. As our Global Server TAM update shows, we expect the AI server rack global value TAM to grow at 163% CAGR in 2025-28E to US$1tn, or 63% of the global server value TAM by 2028E. And (2) Smartphone: riding on the major brand customer's latest model launches along with the new form factor to attract more end users. As we highlighted in September (report link), we reduced our global smartphone volume estimates by 1m/ 8m/ 0.2m units to 1.1bn / 1.2bn/ 1.2bn in 2026-28E, or -10% / +2%/ +2% YoY on high memory costs; however, we remain positive on the potential for global leading brands to outperform the market given their strong brand awareness, large procurement power, and customers' stronger consumption power. We remain positive on foldable phones and expect premium models to continue to gain market share, which should be positive to Hon Hai. Maintain Buy (on CL).
Source: Company data
3-month revenues preview: We expect the company's 4Q26E revenues to be +61% YoY/ +39% QoQ to NT$4.2 trillion. 3Q26 delivered strong revenues YoY growth of 47%, or 5% / 7% ahead of our / Bloomberg consensus, and we expect to see both YoY and MoM growth throughout Oct-Dec, driven by new AI server racks, new smartphone models, and CPO switches. Management noted that AI-related products remain on track to maintain solid growth momentum through 4Q26, while ICT products continue to benefit from typical 2H seasonal tailwinds, which should support overall operational performance in line with current consensus expectations.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
Exhibit 6: Hon Hai monthly revenues since Jan 2025
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 7: We model Hon Hai's Oct 2026 revenue to be +40% YoY or +8% MoM
Hon Hai's monthly/quarterly revenue
| Jul-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Oct-26E | Nov-26E | Dec-26E | 3Q26 | 4Q26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues (NT$m) | 946,513 | 921,766 | 1,158,633 | 1,251,324 | 1,363,943 | 1,586,330 | 3,026,912 | 4,201,597 |
| YoY | 54% | 52% | 38% | 40% | 62% | 84% | 47% | 61% |
| MoM/QoQ | 15% | -3% | 26% | 8% | 9% | 16% | 20% | 39% |
| GS estimates (NT$m) | 928,592 | 1,050,629 | 1,009,185 | 2,877,464 | ||||
| Actual vs. GS | 2% | -12% | 15% | 5% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price Target Risks and Methodology - Hon Hai
Valuation methodology: We are Buy rated on Hon Hai. Our 12-month target price of NT$400 is based on an 17.9x 2027E P/E multiple, which is set in line with peers' PEG&M ratio (i.e., P/E vs. forward-year earnings growth and OPM).
Key downside risks: (1) slower-than-expected ramp-up of the AI server business; (2) weaker-than-expected EV total solution performance across EV assembly, design, software, and semis; (3) slower-than-expected ramp-up of capacity globally; and (4) fiercer-than-expected competition in the consumer electronics EMS business.
Quanta (2382.TW, Neutral): AI servers ramp-up to drive growth ahead; model transition and PC shipment slowdown could weigh on 4Q26
Quanta Sep revenues declined by 23% MoM, which we attributed to AI servers model transition, while PC entered quarter-end at a strong MoM of +62% MoM. Looking forward, we expect monthly revenues to resume sequential growth in Oct to Dec, riding on a reducing impact of AI servers model transition as new racks ramp up, along with growing general servers on agentic AI, and ASP increase on better specification and high raw material costs. We expect 4Q26E revenues to decline by 4% QoQ, considering the high base in 3Q26 and the gradual ramp-up of new AI server racks. As we highlighted in Oct (Global Server TAM updates), we expect global AI server racks (powered by NVIDIA and AMD) shipment at 63k / 110k / 164k in 2026E-28E along with the specification upgrade to drive the ASP; we raised leading US CSPs aggregate capex by 4% / 17% / 22% in 2026E-28E to US$1,397bn by 2028E, reflecting our positive view on AI spending.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
Maintain Neutral on fair valuation.
Exhibit 8: Quanta monthly revenues in 2025-26E
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 9: Quanta monthly revenues preview
| Jul-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Oct-26(E) | Nov-26(E) | Dec-26(E) | 3Q26 | 4Q26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rev (NT$m) | 366,274 | 423,971 | 325,300 | 325,300 | 328,553 | 411,898 | 1,115,545 | 1,065,750 |
| YoY | 131% | 177% | 77% | 88% | 70% | 51% | 125% | 67% |
| MoM/QoQ | -5% | 16% | -23% | 0% | 1% | 25% | 8% | -4% |
| GS (NT$m) | 301,464 | 293,019 | 272,034 | 1,062,279 | ||||
| Actual vs. GS | 21% | 45% | 20% | 5% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price Target Risks and Methodology - Quanta
We are Neutral rated on Quanta. Our 12-month target price of NT$300 is based on a 10.7x 2027E P/E, which references PC/server peers' EPS growth vs. P/E multiple correlation. We see EPS growth as a major factor for the stock's performance. Key upside/downside risks include: 1) stronger-/weaker-than-expected PC market recovery; 2) faster-/slower-than-expected AI server ramp-up; and 3) stronger-/weaker-than-expected demand for general servers.
Wiwynn (6669.TW, Buy): New ASIC and GPU AI server racks in expansion
Wiwynn delivered strong Sep revenues, which were 19% ahead of our estimates, reflecting strong general server demand from US leading CSPs, and its major customers' new ASIC AI server ramping up. We expect revenue YoY growth to remain strong at mid double-digit through Dec 2026, leading 4Q26 revenues to grow at +60 YoY / +8% QoQ, driven by (1) major customers' new ASIC AI servers ramping up, across air-cooled and liquid-cooled, (2) general servers end demand remaining solid on agentic AI, (3) new GPU-powered AI server racks entering mass production in 4Q26 across NVIDIA and AMD platforms, and (4) potential new customers in ASIC AI servers. As we highlighted in Oct (Global Server TAM update), we raised AI servers implied AI chips shipment by 9% / 19% in 2027 / 28E with ASIC penetration rate increasing to 58% by 2028E, and our US internet team forecasts that leading US cloud service providers (CSPs) in aggregate will grow their capex budgets by 84%/ 52%/ 13% YoY in 2026-28E, with our US CSP capex estimates raised by 4% / 17% / 22% in 2026-28E to US$1,397bn by 2028E, supporting our positive view on Wiwynn. Maintain Buy with an unchanged 12m TP of NT$4,000
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
(20.3x 2027E P/E vs. +37% EPS YoY in 2027-28E).
Exhibit 10: Wiwynn monthly revenues and YoY trend
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 11: Wiwynn monthly revenues preview
| Jul-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26Oct-26(E)Nov-26(E) | Dec-26(E) | 3Q26 | 4Q26E | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rev (NT$m) | 117,686 | 144,312 | 172,620 | 158,811 | 150,870 | 157,840 | 434,618 | 467,521 |
| YoY | 39% | 50% | 100% | 74% | 56% | 51% | 63% | 60% |
| MoM/ QoQ | 6% | 23% | 20% | -8% | -5% | 5% | 56% | 8% |
| GS estimates (NT$m) | 114,056 | 113,567 | 145,369 | 407,266 | ||||
| Act vs. GS | 3% | 27% | 19% | 7% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price Target Risks and Methodology - Wiwynn
We are Buy-rated on Wiwynn with a 12-month TP of NT$4,000. Our target price is based on 20.3x 2027E P/E, which is derived from PC/server peers' EPS growth vs. P/E multiple correlation. We see EPS growth as a major factor for the stock's performance.
Key downside risks: 1) weaker-than-expected AI server demand growth; 2) slower-than-expected recovery in general server demand; and 3) more severe competition in the server ODM market.
Wistron (3231.TW, Buy): AI server racks to see strong ramp-up with customer expansion and specification upgrades
Wistron's Sep revenue was up 87% YoY to NT$381bn, or 18% lower than our estimate, which we attribute to the impact of shipment timing volatility in higher-ASP AI products. We expect sequential revenue growth ahead through Dec 2026, driven by new GPU AI server racks ramp-up in 4Q26, which should drive up the ASP, along with strong AI spending and expansion of the company's customer base. The new GPU AI server racks have various racks across GPU, CPU, and LPU, supporting ODM growth in coming quarters. Sep PC shipment was up 7% MoM but down 32% YoY to 1.5m units, reflecting the slow PC demand amid the consumption pull-in under the high memory cost. Despite PC shipments growth likely being negative HoH considering the strong pull-in since late 2025, we expect the strong AI server rack ramp-up to offset the impact, driving 2H26 revenue up +41% HoH. Maintain Buy with an unchanged TP of NT$291 (12.6x 2027E P/E vs. 30.4% NI YoY in 2027-28E).
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
Exhibit 12: Wistron monthly revenues
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 13: Wistron 3-month revenue preview
| 26-Jul | 26-Aug | 26-Sep | Oct-26 (E) | Nov-26 (E) | Dec-26 (E) | 3Q26 | 4Q26 (E) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rev (NT$m) | 308,219 | 460,065 | 380,806 | 399,846 | 431,834 | 476,950 | 1,149,090 | 1,308,630 |
| Rev YoY | 61% | 166% | 87% | 116% | 54% | 87% | 102% | 82% |
| Rev MoM / QoQ | -4% | 49% | -17% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 28% | 14% |
| GS estimates | 237,902 | 311,301 | 463,004 | 1,231,289 | ||||
| Act. Vs. GS | 30% | 48% | -18% | -7% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price Target Risks and Methodology - Wistron
Our 12-month target price of NT$291 is based on a 12.6x 2027E P/E, which is derived from PC/server peer EPS growth vs. P/E multiple correlation. We see EPS growth as a major factor for the stock's share price performance.
Key downside risks: 1) weaker-than-expected PC market recovery, 2) slower-than-expected AI server demand ramp-up, and 3) weaker-than-expected demand on general servers.
ASUS (2357.TW, Neutral): AI server racks in expansion along with PC product mix upgrade
3-month revenues preview: We expect sequential revenues decline in 4Q26 at 6% qoq, considering the PC consumption pull-in under high memory costs along with AI servers model transition. We remain positive on the company's expansion toward AI servers and expect the upcoming new models carrying higher ASP to further drive its growth in late 2026 / early 2027. We continue to expect double-digit revenues YoY in 4Q26E at 27% YoY driven by PC product mix upgrade and AI server racks ramp-up. The company retains strong commitments on capacity expansion and diversification, with issuance of US$0.5bn of convertible bonds and US$1bn of exchangeable bonds, supporting the expansion. Maintain Neutral on fair valuation.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
Exhibit 14: ASUS 2025-26 monthly revenues and YoY change
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 15: We expect ASUS Oct revenue to change +36% YoY/-7% MoM to NT$90bn
| Jul-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Oct-26E | Nov-26E | Dec-26E | 3Q26 | 4Q26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rev (NT$m) | 84,131 | 94,956 | 97,243 | 90,436 | 85,914 | 82,310 | 276,330 | 258,660 |
| Rev YoY | 53% | 51% | 18% | 36% | 28% | 18% | 38% | 27% |
| Rev MoM / QoQ | -21% | 13% | 2% | -7% | -5% | -4% | 7% | -6% |
| GS estimates (NT$m) | 72,325 | 88,338 | 98,385 | 277,472 | ||||
| Act vs. GS | 16% | 7% | -1% | 0% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings revision: We factor in ASUS' Sep revenue and keep our 2026-28E financial estimates largely unchanged.
Exhibit 16: Earnings revision
| NT m | 2026E - Old | 2026E - New | 2026E - Chg | 2027E - Old | 2027E - New | 2027E - Chg | 2028E - Old | 2028E - New | 2028E - Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,002,234 | 1,001,092 | 0% | 1,090,445 | 1,090,442 | 0% | 1,193,871 | 1,193,867 | 0% |
| GP | 155,650 | 155,496 | 0% | 166,867 | 166,867 | 0% | 183,600 | 183,599 | 0% |
| OP | 62,987 | 62,935 | 0% | 66,437 | 66,437 | 0% | 76,748 | 76,748 | 0% |
| Net income | 56,787 | 56,743 | 0% | 56,202 | 56,222 | 0% | 64,563 | 64,580 | 0% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 15.5% | 15.5% | 15.3% | 15.3% | 15.4% | 15.4% | |||
| OPM | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.4% | |||
| NM | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation: We continue to use near-term P/E to derive our 12M TP. Our target P/E is 14.8x 2027E EPS (unchanged), still derived from peers' avg. ratio of 2027E PE to 2028E NI YoY and OPM. With the updated earnings estimates and unchanged target P/E, our 12M TP is unchanged at NT$1,115. Maintain Neutral.
Exhibit 17: Target P/E is derived from peers' avg. ratio of 2027E P/E to 2028E NI YoY and OPM
| Company Ticker Rating | ASUS 2357.TW Neutral | Lenovo 0992.HK Buy | Gigabyte 2376.TW Neutral | Dell DELL Buy | Quanta 2382.TW Neutral | HP HPQ Sell | Apple AAPL Buy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027E PE | 14.8 | 20.0 | 10.0 | 17.6 | 11.5 | 10.1 | 36.1 |
| 2028E NI YoY | 15% | 34% | 14% | 12% | 13% | 9% | 5% |
| 2028E OPM | 6.4% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 11.2% | 3.3% | 6.9% | 31% |
| Ratio | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Avg. | 0.7 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
Exhibit 18: ASUS 12m forward P/E
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 19: Asus P&L summary
| (NT$ m) | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 147,693 | 188,006 | 200,281 | 202,924 | 208,370 | 257,732 | 276,330 | 258,660 | 537,192 | 482,314 | 587,087 | 738,905 | 1,001,092 | 1,090,442 | 1,193,867 |
| Gross profit | 24,600 | 25,963 | 28,706 | 32,346 | 30,969 | 44,243 | 41,433 | 38,851 | 74,145 | 72,405 | 103,474 | 111,614 | 155,496 | 166,867 | 183,599 |
| Operating income | 12,580 | 7,835 | 9,839 | 9,403 | 11,896 | 20,974 | 16,563 | 13,502 | 12,982 | 11,164 | 29,595 | 39,656 | 62,935 | 66,437 | 76,748 |
| Net income | 12,791 | 9,806 | 10,556 | 11,405 | 9,797 | 19,048 | 15,213 | 12,685 | 14,691 | 15,928 | 31,394 | 44,558 | 56,743 | 56,222 | 64,580 |
| EPS (NT$) | 17.22 | 13.20 | 14.21 | 15.36 | 13.19 | 25.64 | 20.48 | 17.08 | 19.78 | 21.44 | 42.27 | 59.99 | 76.39 | 75.69 | 86.71 |
| Margins / ratio | |||||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 16.7% | 13.8% | 14.3% | 15.9% | 14.9% | 17.2% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 13.8% | 15.0% | 17.6% | 15.1% | 15.5% | 15.3% | 15.4% |
| Operating margin | 8.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% |
| Net margin | 8.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% |
| QoQ | |||||||||||||||
| Revenue | -4% | 27% | 7% | 1% | 3% | 24% | 7% | -6% | |||||||
| Gross profit | -6% | 6% | 11% | 13% | -4% | 43% | -6% | -6% | |||||||
| Operating income | 699% | -38% | 26% | -4% | 27% | 76% | -21% | -18% | |||||||
| Net income | 681% | -23% | 8% | 8% | -14% | 94% | -20% | -17% | |||||||
| EPS | 681% | -23% | 8% | 8% | -14% | 94% | -20% | -17% | |||||||
| YoY | |||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 21% | 30% | 20% | 32% | 41% | 37% | 38% | 27% | 0% | -10% | 22% | 26% | 35% | 9% | 9% |
| Gross profit | 26% | -7% | -4% | 24% | 26% | 70% | 44% | 20% | -33% | -2% | 43% | 8% | 39% | 7% | 10% |
| Operating income | 160% | -32% | -16% | 497% | -5% | 168% | 68% | 44% | -74% | -14% | 165% | 34% | 59% | 6% | 16% |
| Net income | 135% | -17% | -16% | 596% | -23% | 94% | 44% | 11% | -67% | 8% | 97% | 42% | 27% | -1% | 15% |
| EPS | 135% | -17% | -16% | 596% | -23% | 94% | 44% | 11% | -67% | 8% | 97% | 42% | 27% | -1% | 15% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price Target Risks and Methodology - Asus
We are Neutral-rated on ASUS with a 12-month target price of NT$1,115. Our target price is based on 14.8x 2027E P/E, which is derived from brand makers' average ratio of 2027E P/E to 2028E NI YoY and OPM. We see EPS growth and OPM as major factors for the stock's share performance.
Key upside/downside risks include: 1) stronger / weaker-than-expected PC market growth; 2) faster / slower-than-expected AI and gaming PC growth; and 3) faster / slower-than-expected AI server ramp-up.
Compal (2324.TW, Neutral): AI servers to fuel 4Q26E/1Q27E growth
3-month revenues preview: We expect sequential revenues growth in 4Q26, considering the company's rising AI server shipments, AI server capacity expansion, and PC product mix upgrade towards high-end model (e.g. AI PC). Overall, we expect Compal's 4Q26E revenues to grow at 46% yoy/ 15% qoq, riding on AI server racks ramp-up and the company's expansion from motherboard (L6) to system (L10 / L11). We remain positive on Compal's business diversification, supported by global capacity expansion in the US, Taiwan, Vietnam and China, while consumer electronics still e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
accounts for the majority of the company's total revenue, for which demand could be capped by rising raw material costs (e.g., memory, CPU). Maintain Neutral on fair valuation.
Exhibit 20: Compal monthly revenues and YoY change
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Compal's Sep revenue was up 35% YoY / 40% MoM to NT$94bn, or 3% higher than our estimate, reflecting strong AI server racks shipment ramp-up. Sep PC shipments were up 21% MoM but down 32% YoY to 1.7m units, reflecting the sluggish demand amid the rising memory cost and weak consumer electronics demand.
Exhibit 21: Compal 3-month revenue preview
| Jul-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26Oct-26(E)Nov-26(E)Dec-26(E) | 3Q26 | 4Q26E | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rev (NT$m) | 81,006 | 67,337 | 94,434 | 92,545 | 91,620 | 94,275 | 242,777 | 278,440 |
| Rev YoY | 38% | 15% | 35% | 49% | 46% | 43% | 30% | 46% |
| Rev Mom / QoQ | -15% | -17% | 40% | -2% | -1% | 3% | 2% | 15% |
| GS estimates(NT$m) | 73,467 | 84,246 | 91,271 | 239,614 | ||||
| Act vs. GS | 10% | -20% | 3% | 1% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings revision: We factor in Compal's Sep revenue and lower FY26E net income by 3% mainly on slightly rising R&D expenses. Our 2027-28E financial estimates are largely unchanged.
Exhibit 22: Earnings revision
| NT m | 2026E - Old | 2026E - New | 2026E - Chg | 2027E - Old | 2027E - New | 2027E - Chg | 2028E - Old | 2028E - New | 2028E - Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 957,979 | 960,816 | 0% | 1,109,578 | 1,098,183 | -1% | 1,205,082 | 1,193,499 | -1% |
| GP | 46,274 | 45,932 | -1% | 52,958 | 52,005 | -2% | 58,706 | 57,740 | -2% |
| OP | 12,797 | 12,382 | -3% | 17,739 | 17,837 | 1% | 21,179 | 20,980 | -1% |
| Net income | 10,667 | 10,356 | -3% | 13,610 | 13,656 | 0% | 15,622 | 15,578 | 0% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | |||
| OPM | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | |||
| NM | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation: We continue to derive our 12-month TP based on near-term P/E. Our 2027E target P/E is unchanged at 14.7x, which is derived from the refreshed peers' correlation of forward trading P/E and EPS growth. With our updated earnings estimates and unchanged target multiple, our 12-month TP is unchanged at NT$46.1. The target P/E of 14.7x is within the company's historical avg. and avg.+1std forward trading P/E. Maintain Neutral.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
Exhibit 23: Compal peers' 2027E P/E vs. 2027-28E avg. EPS YoY
Exhibit 24: Compal 12m forward P/E
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 25: Compal P&L summary
| (NT$ m) | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 199,098 | 180,443 | 187,120 | 190,852 | 201,304 | 238,295 | 242,777 | 278,440 | 910,253 | 757,513 | 960,816 | 1,098,183 | 1,193,499 |
| Gross profit | 10,443 | 10,585 | 10,610 | 11,108 | 10,597 | 11,021 | 11,004 | 13,309 | 45,371 | 42,747 | 45,932 | 52,005 | 57,740 |
| Operating income | 2,706 | 2,624 | 2,672 | 2,634 | 2,644 | 2,855 | 2,892 | 3,991 | 14,842 | 10,636 | 12,382 | 17,837 | 20,980 |
| Net income | 2,191 | 482 | 1,947 | 1,409 | 1,967 | 3,133 | 2,207 | 3,049 | 10,042 | 6,030 | 10,356 | 13,656 | 15,578 |
| EPS, diluted (NT$) | 0.50 | 0.11 | 0.45 | 0.32 | 0.45 | 0.72 | 0.51 | 0.70 | 2.28 | 1.37 | 2.38 | 3.15 | 3.59 |
| Margins / ratio | |||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% |
| Operating margin | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.8% |
| Net margin | 1.1% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% |
| QoQ | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | -13% | -9% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 18% | 2% | 15% | |||||
| Gross profit | -10% | 1% | 0% | 5% | -5% | 4% | 0% | 21% | |||||
| Operating income | -17% | -3% | 2% | -1% | 0% | 8% | 1% | 38% | |||||
| Net income | 13% | -78% | 304% | -28% | 40% | 59% | -30% | 38% | |||||
| YoY | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | 0% | -24% | -23% | -17% | 1% | 32% | 30% | 46% | -4% | -17% | 27% | 14% | 9% |
| Gross profit | 7% | -10% | -13% | -4% | 1% | 4% | 4% | 20% | 7% | -6% | 7% | 13% | 11% |
| Operating income | -5% | -35% | -43% | -19% | -2% | 9% | 8% | 52% | 23% | -28% | 16% | 44% | 18% |
| Net income | 16% | -83% | -42% | -27% | -10% | 549% | 13% | 116% | 31% | -40% | 72% | 32% | 14% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price Target Risks and Methodology - Compal
We are Neutral-rated on Compal with a 12-month target price of NT$46.1. Our target price is based on 14.7x 2027E P/E, which is derived from PC/server peers' EPS growth vs. P/E multiple correlation. We see EPS growth and market re-rating for ODM companies as major factors for the stock's performance.
Key upside/downside risks: 1) stronger-/weaker-than-expected PC market recovery; 2) faster-/slower-than-expected AI server ramp-up; and 3) stronger/weaker-than-expected demand for tablets.
Inventec (2356.TW, Neutral): Components tight supply weighing on growth
Inventec's Sep revenue was up 63% YoY / 18% MoM, or 20% higher than our estimate, and we attribute the MoM growth to the strong AI server growth momentum. We model sequential revenue decline in Oct, considering the impact of the high base, components short supply and sluggish PC end demand post the demand pull-in in 1H26, leading our 4Q26E revenues up 47% YoY. We remain positive on Inventec's AI server business
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
expansion, while the component short supply may weigh on the near-term growth. Maintain Neutral.
Exhibit 26: Inventec monthly revenue preview
| Jul-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Oct-26 (E) | Nov-26 (E) | Dec-26 (E) | 3Q26 | 4Q26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rev (NT$m) | 90,190 | 83,268 | 98,636 | 86,799 | 78,120 | 87,269 | 272,094 | 252,188 |
| YoY | 66% | 36% | 63% | 58% | 50% | 36% | 54% | 47% |
| MoM/QoQ | -12% | -8% | 18% | -12% | -10% | 12% | 1% | -7% |
| GS (NT$m) | 68,533 | 79,367 | 82,083 | 255,541 | ||||
| Actual vs. GS | 32% | 5% | 20% | 6% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 27: Inventec Sep revenues up 63% YoY
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings revision: We factor in Inventec's Sep revenue and raise our 2026-28E net income by 9% / 6% / 14%, mainly on higher revenues and lower opex ratio to reflect lower R&D investments. We raise our 2026-28E revenues by 2% / 3% / 9%, considering the rising AI server ASP on the rising component costs. Our 2026-28E GMs are largely unchanged.
Exhibit 28: Earnings revision
| NT m | 2026E - Old | 2026E - New | 2026E - Chg | 2027E - Old | 2027E - New | 2027E - Chg | 2028E - Old | 2028E - New | 2028E - Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 977,897 | 994,450 | 2% | 1,106,709 | 1,143,384 | 3% | 1,135,229 | 1,234,656 | 9% |
| GP | 43,871 | 45,116 | 3% | 52,895 | 55,062 | 4% | 56,407 | 62,553 | 11% |
| OP | 15,910 | 17,421 | 9% | 22,460 | 23,619 | 5% | 23,599 | 26,871 | 14% |
| Net income | 11,325 | 12,313 | 9% | 14,381 | 15,267 | 6% | 16,295 | 18,566 | 14% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | |||
| OPM | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | |||
| NM | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation: We continue to use near-term P/E to derive our 12M TP, and our target P/E is updated to 14.2x 2027E P/E (vs. 15.3x previously), still derived from PC/server peers' correlation between forward year trading P/E and earnings growth. With our updated target P/E and earnings estimates, our 12M TP is unchanged at NT$61. Maintain Neutral.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
Exhibit 29: Inventec: Correlation of earnings growth and P/E of its local and global peers
Exhibit 30: Inventec 12M forward P/E ratio
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 31: Inventec P&L summary
| (NT$ m) | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 157,034 | 186,577 | 176,286 | 171,293 | 200,311 | 269,857 | 272,094 | 252,188 | 646,262 | 691,190 | 994,450 | 1,143,384 | 1,234,656 |
| Gross profit | 9,413 | 9,503 | 8,876 | 8,923 | 10,177 | 11,416 | 11,873 | 11,650 | 33,337 | 36,715 | 45,116 | 55,062 | 62,553 |
| Operating income | 3,473 | 3,635 | 3,067 | 2,538 | 3,615 | 4,741 | 4,526 | 4,538 | 11,817 | 12,713 | 17,421 | 23,619 | 26,871 |
| Net income | 1,703 | 2,190 | 2,729 | 2,073 | 2,428 | 3,895 | 2,995 | 2,994 | 7,267 | 8,696 | 12,313 | 15,267 | 18,566 |
| EPS, diluted (NTD) | 0.47 | 0.61 | 0.76 | 0.57 | 0.67 | 1.08 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 2.02 | 2.41 | 3.42 | 4.25 | 5.17 |
| Margins / ratio | |||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% |
| Opex ratio | -3.8% | -3.1% | -3.3% | -3.7% | -3.3% | -2.5% | -2.7% | -2.8% | -3.3% | -3.5% | -2.8% | -2.8% | -2.9% |
| Operating margin | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% |
| Net margin | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% |
| QoQ | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | -21% | 19% | -6% | -3% | 17% | 35% | 1% | -7% | |||||
| Gross profit | -7% | 1% | -7% | 1% | 14% | 12% | 4% | -2% | |||||
| Operating income | -11% | 5% | -16% | -17% | 42% | 31% | -5% | 0% | |||||
| Net income | -28% | 29% | 25% | -24% | 17% | 60% | -23% | 0% | |||||
| EPS, diluted | -28% | 29% | 25% | -24% | 17% | 61% | -23% | 0% | |||||
| YoY | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | 20% | 21% | 8% | -13% | 28% | 45% | 54% | 47% | 26% | 7% | 44% | 15% | 8% |
| Gross profit | 37% | 23% | 3% | -11% | 8% | 20% | 34% | 31% | 27% | 10% | 23% | 22% | 14% |
| Operating income | 62% | 40% | -3% | -35% | 4% | 30% | 48% | 79% | 58% | 8% | 37% | 36% | 14% |
| Net income | 56% | 21% | 37% | -13% | 43% | 78% | 10% | 44% | 14% | 20% | 42% | 24% | 22% |
| EPS, diluted | 56% | 21% | 36% | -12% | 42% | 78% | 10% | 45% | 14% | 20% | 42% | 24% | 22% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price Target Risks and Methodology - Inventec
We are Neutral-rated on Inventec with a 12-month target price of NT$61.0. Our target price is based on 14.2x 2027E P/E, which is derived from PC/server peers' EPS growth vs. P/E multiple correlation. We see EPS growth as a major factor for the stock's performance.
Key upside/downside risks: 1) stronger-/weaker-than-expected PC market recovery; 2) faster-/slower-than-expected AI server ramp-up; and 3) stronger-/weaker-than-expected demand for general servers.
Pegatron (4938.TW, Sell): AI servers in expansion; IoT and Broadband entering peak season
3-month revenues preview: Overall, we project Pegatron's 4Q26E revenues to grow +62% YoY, driven by: (1) a continuing ramp-up in AI server shipments, across rack-level and baseboard-based, riding on the growing demand in Neocloud and enterprises, and
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
(2) broadband, IoT, and game console entering peak season. We are positive on Pegatron's expansion from consumer electronics to AI servers and automotive electronics, while the high memory costs could cap PC and smartphone market growth. Maintain Sell on stretched valuation.
Exhibit 32: Pegatron monthly revenues and YoY change
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Pegatron's Sep revenue was up 87% YoY / 143% MoM to NT$215bn, or 64% higher than our estimate. This reflects a strong ramp-up in AI servers in Sep. Sep PC shipments were up c.8% MoM but down 44% YoY to 0.46m, reflecting the weak PC demand under the high memory costs. Prior to September, the company suffered from model transition (i.e. declining demand for older models while new models were in a slow shipment ramp-up phase).
Exhibit 33: Pegatron monthly/quarterly revenue summary
| Jul-26 | Aug-26 | Sep-26 | Oct-26 (E) | Nov-26 (E) | Dec-26 (E) | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rev (NT$m) | 86,015 | 88,305 | 214,753 | 215,827 | 216,906 | 84,536 | 389,073 | 517,268 |
| Rev YoY | 12% | 34% | 87% | 83% | 113% | -15% | 51% | 62% |
| Rev MoM / QoQ | -6% | 3% | 143% | 0% | 0% | -61% | 42% | 33% |
| GS estimates (NT$m) | 100,638 | 131,069 | 305,389 | |||||
| Act vs. GS | -12% | 64% | 27% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings revision: We factor in Pegatron's Sep revenue and raise our 2026-28E net income by 4% / 6% / 4%, mainly on higher revenues and lower opex ratio. We raise our 2026-28E revenues by 16% / 28% / 27%, considering the AI server shipment ramp-up and higher ASP on better specification. Given the much lower GM of AI server racks compared to Pegatron's other products, our changes in gross profits narrow to 9% / 12% / 15% in 2026E-28E. The opex ratio for 2026-28E is cut by 0.1 ppt/ 0.2 ppt/ 0.1 ppt to reflect the improved operational efficiency.
Exhibit 34: Earnings revision
| NT m | 2026E - Old | 2026E - New | 2026E - Chg | 2027E - Old | 2027E - New | 2027E - Chg | 2028E - Old | 2028E - New | 2028E - Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,224,178 | 1,424,894 | 16% | 1,407,188 | 1,796,560 | 28% | 1,560,953 | 1,981,143 | 27% |
| GP | 51,451 | 56,205 | 9% | 57,059 | 63,966 | 12% | 61,853 | 71,393 | 15% |
| OP | 17,055 | 17,875 | 5% | 19,909 | 20,826 | 5% | 21,736 | 22,855 | 5% |
| Net income | 17,357 | 18,033 | 4% | 19,218 | 20,407 | 6% | 20,861 | 21,633 | 4% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| GM | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.6% | |||
| OPM | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | |||
| NM | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation: We continue to derive our 12M TP based on near-term P/E, and our target
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
P/E is updated to 9.7x 2027E EPS (vs. 10.8x previously), derived from the refreshed peers' correlation of forward year earnings growth and P/E. With the updated earnings and target multiple, our 12M TP is revised down to NT$73.3 (vs. NT$76.9 previously). The target P/E of 9.7x is within the company's historical avg. and avg.-1std forward trading P/E. Maintain Sell.
Exhibit 35: Pegatron: Correlation of earnings growth and P/E of its peers
Exhibit 36: Pegatron 12M forward P/E ratio
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 37: Pegatron P&L summary
| (NT$ m) | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 272,433 | 267,336 | 257,863 | 319,528 | 244,105 | 274,448 | 389,073 | 517,268 | 1,125,349 | 1,117,160 | 1,424,894 | 1,796,560 | 1,981,143 |
| Gross profit | 10,165 | 8,377 | 10,902 | 13,057 | 10,801 | 12,156 | 14,511 | 18,736 | 46,033 | 42,501 | 56,205 | 63,966 | 71,393 |
| Operating income | 2,483 | 1,471 | 3,218 | 4,437 | 2,829 | 4,198 | 4,784 | 6,063 | 12,501 | 11,609 | 17,875 | 20,826 | 22,855 |
| Net income | 4,303 | 287 | 4,545 | 5,267 | 1,561 | 4,488 | 5,464 | 6,520 | 16,877 | 14,403 | 18,033 | 20,407 | 21,633 |
| EPS, diluted (NT$) | 1.61 | 0.11 | 1.69 | 1.95 | 0.58 | 1.66 | 2.02 | 2.42 | 6.28 | 5.35 | 6.68 | 7.56 | 8.01 |
| Margins / ratio | |||||||||||||
| Gross margin | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| Operating margin | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
| Net margin | 1.6% | 0.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| QoQ | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | -17% | -2% | -4% | 24% | -24% | 12% | 42% | 33% | |||||
| Gross profit | -14% | -18% | 30% | 20% | -17% | 13% | 19% | 29% | |||||
| Operating income | -14% | -41% | 119% | 38% | -36% | 48% | 14% | 27% | |||||
| Net income | 15% | -93% | 1481% | 16% | -70% | 187% | 22% | 19% | |||||
| YoY | |||||||||||||
| Revenue | 9% | 5% | -12% | -2% | -10% | 3% | 51% | 62% | -10% | -1% | 28% | 26% | 10% |
| Gross profit | -4% | -28% | -9% | 11% | 6% | 45% | 33% | 44% | 0% | -8% | 32% | 14% | 12% |
| Operating income | -18% | -50% | -12% | 53% | 14% | 185% | 49% | 37% | -16% | -7% | 54% | 17% | 10% |
| Net income | 32% | -95% | 6% | 41% | -64% | 1461% | 20% | 24% | 7% | -15% | 25% | 13% | 6% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Price Target Risks and Methodology - Pegatron
We are Sell rated on Pegatron with a 12-month target price of NT$73.3. Our TP is based on a 9.7x 2027E P/E, which is derived from PC/server peers' EPS growth vs. P/E multiple correlation. We see EPS growth as a major factor for the stock's share performance.
Key risks: 1) stronger-than-expected smartphone market recovery, 2) faster-than-expected AI server ramp-up, and 3) stronger-than-expected demand on consumer electronics.
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
For the exclusive use of [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-10-29）
訂閱者浮水印（頁首／頁尾「For the exclusive use of …」之 email）已遮蔽為「[讀者資訊已遮蔽]」；分析師姓名保留。本報告 18 張抽圖皆為 GS 長條／折線圖，>=40KB 者逐張已讀，其餘小圖已抽讀 001、002。圖題與數字均照所見；無財務圖嵌入 lib（公司頁不放財務圖）。
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
報告_GS_台灣ODM品牌_營收前瞻_20261028_001.png |
14KB | 真資料圖 | 8 家 Sep 月營收 MoM 長條（報告 Exhibit 1，本文標題誤寫「Sep 2026E」，數值為 9 月實績）：和碩 143%、仁寶 40%、鴻海 26%、緯穎 20%、英業達 18%、華碩 2%、緯創 -17%、廣達 -23%（財務類） |
報告_GS_台灣ODM品牌_營收前瞻_20261028_002.png |
9KB | 真資料圖 | 8 家 Sep 月營收 YoY 長條（Exhibit 2，同上標題誤寫）：緯穎約 100%、緯創／和碩約 87%、廣達約 77%、英業達約 63%、鴻海約 38%、仁寶約 35%、華碩約 18%（財務類） |
報告_GS_台灣ODM品牌_營收前瞻_20261028_003.png |
56KB | 真資料圖 | 「Exhibit 5: Hon Hai's Sep revenues +38% YoY, or +26% MoM」：鴻海月營收 YoY 折線 Jan-11 至 2026，2012 年初高點約 97%、2021 年初約 85%、近期約 50%（財務類） |
報告_GS_台灣ODM品牌_營收前瞻_20261028_004.png |
38KB | 真資料圖 | 鴻海月營收（Exhibit 6，財務類；未逐張細讀，<40KB 預設小圖表） |
報告_GS_台灣ODM品牌_營收前瞻_20261028_005.png ～ _018.png |
9-57KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 8、10、12、14、20、27、32 各公司月營收長條＋YoY 折線，Exhibit 18、24、30、36 遠期 P/E band，Exhibit 23、29、35 P/E 對 EPS 成長相關圖（財務估值類；除 007 外 <40KB 未逐張讀，僅憑圖題登錄，不嵌 lib） |
報告_GS_台灣ODM品牌_營收前瞻_20261028_007.png |
41KB | 真資料圖 | 「2025-26 Monthly Revenues」緯創月營收長條（藍，Jan-25 至 Sep-26 實績、Oct-Dec-26E 淺藍）疊 YoY 黃線（右軸）：Aug-26 約 460,000 為高點，Sep-26 約 380,000；YoY 峰值約 165%（Exhibit 12，財務類） |