PDF 原檔：報告_MS_半導體生產設備月報_20260723_original.pdf
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288KB | 真資料圖 | 日股半導體設備同業股價相對表現雙圖（TOPIX/Tekscend/DISCO/Ebara/Advantest/Lasertec/JEOL/Ushio/Nikon/SCREEN/Tokyo Electron/KOKUSAI/ULVAC，2025/07/20=100 與 2026/05/01=100 兩期間） |
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68KB | 真資料圖 | DDR5 price 折線圖（DDR5 4800/5600 16Gb 2Gx8 Average Spot USD，2021/12-2026 急升） |
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75KB | 真資料圖 | TLC Flash price 折線圖（512Gb Average Spot/Contract USD，2021/12-2026 急升） |
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112KB | 真資料圖 | DRAM Sales YoY contribution breakdown（bit volume / bit ASP / others 堆疊柱狀 + Sales 折線，2012-2026） |
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120KB | 真資料圖 | Bit volume YoY and ASP YoY 折線圖（2012-2026） |
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69KB | 真資料圖 | Taiwan import from Malaysia（半導體晶圓/元件量測檢測設備）柱狀 + YoY 折線圖，2022-2026 |
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112KB | 真資料圖 | China SPE import 總額柱狀 + 3MMA YoY 折線圖（2015-2026，YoY -7%） |
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281KB | 真資料圖 | China SPE import 總額柱狀 + 3MMA YoY 折線圖（2015-2026，另一期間版本） |
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95KB | 真資料圖 | China SPE import 細項三合一圖：Lithography／Deposition tools／Etchers 三張分類柱狀+YoY 折線（2015-2026） |
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87KB | 真資料圖 | China SPE import 細項：Mask making tools／Dicers & Grinders／CMP 三張分類柱狀+YoY 折線（2015-2026） |
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87KB | 真資料圖 | China SPE import CMP 細項柱狀+YoY 折線圖（2015-2026，單圖放大版） |
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101KB | 真資料圖 | China SPE imports from Japan 總額柱狀 + 3MMA YoY 折線圖（2020-2026，YoY -15%） |
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77KB | 真資料圖 | China SPE imports from Japan：Lithography 細項柱狀 + YoY 折線圖（2020-2026） |
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167KB | 真資料圖 | China SPE imports from Japan：Deposition tools／Etchers 雙圖柱狀 + YoY 折線（2020-2026） |
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247KB | 真資料圖 | China SPE imports from Japan：Mask making tools／Dicers & Grinders／CMP 三合一柱狀 + YoY 折線（2020-2026） |
本份報告主體為日股/北美半導體設備股評等目標價表（Tokyo Electron、SCREEN、Kokusai Electric、DISCO、Advantest、Ebara、Lasertec、JEOL、Ushio、ULVAC、Nikon、Tekscend、AMAT、Lam Research、KLA、Teradyne、Kioxia、NVIDIA）+ 1Q 財報前瞻速覽 + 記憶體現貨價格與中國/台灣半導體設備進口海關數據，未點名任何台股個股（僅總經性 Taiwan import from Malaysia 圖表）。
原始內容
M July 23, 2026 08:38 AM GMT
Investor Presentation | Japan
Semiconductor Production Equipment: Tech Monthly Jul 2026
Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+
Suzune Tamura, CFA
Equity Analyst
Suzune.Tamura@morganstanleymufg.com
+81 3 6836-8891
Kazuo Yoshikawa, CFA
Equity Analyst Kazuo.Yoshikawa@morganstanleymufg.com
+81 3 6836-8408
Semiconductor Production Equipment
Japan
Industry View
Attractive
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
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Stock Price Performance
Source: FactSet data, Morgan Stanley Research
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Stock performance and valuations
| Rating Share price | Rating Share price | Rating Share price | Rating Share price | Rating Share price | Rating Share price | Valuation | Valuation | Valuation | Valuation | Valuation | Valuation | Valuation | Valuation | Valuation | Valuation | Valuation | Valuation | Valuation | Valuation | Valuation | Valuation | Valuation | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (LC) (LC) Performance | (LC) (LC) Performance | (LC) (LC) Performance | (LC) (LC) Performance | (LC) (LC) Performance | Cons | Cons | Cons | (x) Cons | (x) Cons | (x) Cons | EV/EBITDA (x) Cons PBR | EV/EBITDA (x) Cons PBR | EV/EBITDA (x) Cons PBR | Cons Div. yield | Cons Div. yield | Cons Div. yield | Cons Div. yield | Cons Div. yield | Cons Div. yield | Cons Div. yield | Cons Div. yield | |||
| MS | Last close | MS PT | YTD | 3m | 1m | 11/20 ~ | F1 | F2 | F3 | F1 | F2 | F3 | F1 | F2 | F3 F1 | F2 | F3 | F3 | F3 | F3 | F3 | |||
| Semiconductor Production Equipment (Japan) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8035 JP | Tokyo Electron | OW | 65,960 | 65,000 | 92.2% | 45.0% | -15.2% | 103.0% | 41.1 | 30.8 | 25.3 | 29.3 | 22.3 | 18.9 | 12.6 | 10.5 | 8.7 | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| 7735 JP | SCREEN Holdings | OW | 16,500 | 17,000 | 116.5% | 58.1% | -3.0% | 154.6% | 26.9 | 21.6 | 18.8 | 17.2 | 14.1 | 12.6 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| 6525 JP | Kokusai Electric | OW | 8,741 | 8,300 | 59.1% | 31.7% | -15.1% | 107.1% | 41.4 | 29.9 | 23.8 | 25.5 | 19.7 | 16.3 | 8.5 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| 6146 JP | DISCO | OW | 68,590 | 78,000 | 42.4% | -8.3% | -22.5% | 45.1% | 40.8 | 33.7 | 29.1 | 28.6 | 24.1 | 21.3 | 11.1 | 9.2 | 8.0 | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| 6857 JP | Advantest | OW | 29,585 | 36,000 | 50.7% | 6.0% | -8.0% | 42.0% | 41.7 | 32.8 | 27.7 | 30.8 | 24.5 | 20.9 | 20.0 | 14.2 | 10.5 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| 6361 JP | Ebara | OW | 5,593 | 7,100 | 51.8% | 2.2% | -17.4% | 44.8% | 24.3 | 21.7 | 18.4 | 15.7 | 13.0 | 11.3 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% |
| 6920 JP | Lasertec | UW | 42,990 | 36,000 | 45.0% | -4.0% | -25.2% | 53.8% | 49.4 | 38.9 | 30.0 | 39.3 | 28.3 | 22.7 | 16.2 | 12.8 | 10.1 | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| 6951 JP | JEOL | EW | 8,351 | 7,100 | 66.0% | 29.2% | 13.7% | 79.9% | 19.4 | 16.2 | 14.6 | 12.5 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% |
| 6925 JP | Ushio | OW EW | 4,104 | 4,900 9,800 | 63.8% | 29.6% | -13.9% | 76.6% | 31.3 | 21.9 | 17.7 | 14.4 | 11.4 | 9.4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% |
| 6728 JP | ULVAC | NA | 9,800 | NA | 38.4% | -0.7% | -4.8% | 46.7% | 25.0 | 20.1 | 17.2 | 14.0 | 9.9 | 8.6 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| 7731 JP | Nikon | UW | 2,213 | 1,100 | 26.9% | 17.0% | 2.8% | 27.4% | 66.9 | 33.0 | 24.6 | 15.5 | 12.3 | 10.5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| 429A JP | Tekscend | EW | 3,760 | 4,600 | 24.1% | 0.1% | -17.2% | 20.1% | 14.5 | 13.4 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| PLAB US | Photronics (Not covered) | NA | 31 | NA | -2.4% | -37.6% | -8.3% | 54.0% | 16.8 | 15.5 | 14.3 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Semiconductor Capital Equipment (North America) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AMAT US | Applied Materials | EW | 554 | 647 | 115.5% | 37.3% | -13.5% | 151.5% | 45.1 | 32.8 | 25.8 | 38.6 | 27.6 | 22.3 | 16.6 | 13.2 | 11.0 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| LRCX US | Lam Research | OW | 319 | 404 | 86.5% | 20.2% | -22.0% | 128.7% | 56.1 | 39.5 | 32.5 | 63.1 | 32.6 | 27.6 | 35.0 | 23.2 | 17.0 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| KLAC US | KLA | OW | 215 | 274 | 76.7% | 18.5% | -20.2% | 94.7% | 57.9 | 41.3 | 33.4 | 64.9 | 34.0 | 28.0 | 48.3 | 37.4 | 29.5 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| TER US | Teradyne | EW | 369 | 387 | 90.9% | -4.1% | -19.2% | 137.0% | 48.6 | 35.4 | 25.5 | 36.3 | 27.6 | 21.0 | 15.5 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Mid Small Cap/Manufacturer (Japan): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7729 JP | Tokyo Seimitsu | OW | 18,255 | 22,000 | 64.4% | 9.6% | -9.4% | 68.5% | 23.6 | 20.4 | 17.8 | 14.3 | 12.5 | 11.0 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| 6315 JP | Towa | EW | 2,860 | 3,200 | 33.0% | 10.1% | -19.2% | 13.5% | 25.3 | 20.2 | 16.9 | 14.9 | 11.9 | 10.2 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| Semiconductors (Japan) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 285A JP | Kioxia Holdings | OW | 64,270 | 110,000 | 515.9% | 84.7% | -40.9% | 467.0% | 6.5 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| Semiconductors (North America) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NVDA US | NVIDIA Corp | OW | 212 | 288 | 13.7% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 17.4% | 23.6 | 16.6 | 13.9 | 19.2 | 13.4 | 11.0 | 16.9 | 10.0 | 6.6 | 0.3% 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
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Note: Data as of July 22 market close. Prices and price targets are in Japanese yen except for Teradyne, Applied Materials, Lam Research, KLA, NVIDIA, and Photronics, which are in US dollars. Tokyo Seimitsu and Towa are covered by Yoshihito Hasegawa. Koixia Holdings is covered by Kazuo Yoshikawa. Teradyne, Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLA are covered by Shane Brett. NVIDIA is covered by Joseph Moore; NA = No data found on FactSet/Morgan Stanley Research. Photronics is not covered; Japan Semiconductors: In-Line Mid Small Cap/Manufacturer (Japan): In-Line, Semiconductor Capital Equipment (North America): In-Line, Semiconductors (North America): Attractive Source: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; Cons = based on FactSet Consensus; MSe = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
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Company / Focus KPI
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Focus KPI Surprise
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• Focus is on the magnitude of any upward revision to 2H company guidance.
• We feel the market has already priced in an upward revision toward our F3/27 forecast (sales ·320bn, OP ·73bn).
1Q results
AlphaSignals Earnings Preview (1)
1 Modest revision higher
• We expect 1Q results to compare unfavorably with peers benefiting from investment by the largest DRAM maker.
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could materially affect 1Q optics.
- Watch whether management comments on portfolio reform in connection with the new medium term plan starting in
F3/28.
Advantest (6857.T)
Degree of upward revision to guidance
— In-line
1 Modest revision higher
• We expect an upward revision to full-year guidance.
• However, as only 1Q, we expect the magnitude of any upward revision to be modest.
- We believe market expectations for the size of any guidance hike are not particularly high.
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*Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS; Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
Likely impact to consensus EPS*
- Largely unchanged
^
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Company / Focus KPI
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Focus KPI Surprise
M
• Expectations for F6/27 guidance are low, and even weak guidance would likely be largely within market expectations.
• Watch closely for any changes to the medium term plan outlook.
AlphaSignals Earnings Preview (2)
- Largely unchanged
• We expect positive commentary on PKG substrates and EMIB-T related demand.
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1Q results
Likely downside surprise
- We expect weak 1Q progress versus company guidance.
DISCO (6146.T)
Guidance on consolidated 2Q shipments
Likely downside surprise
- We forecast 2Q consolidated shipment guidance of more than ·140bn.
• In our view, a positive surprise would require guidance of around ·150bn.
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Likely impact to consensus EPS*
- Largely unchanged
— Largely unchanged
- Largely unchanged
^
^
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Company / Focus KPI
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Focus KPI Surprise
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• We expect 1Q results to be in line.
• While we see downside risk to full-year guidance, the company tends not to make forward-looking revisions, so we do not expect this risk to surface in 1Q.
AlphaSignals Earnings Preview (3)
Lasertec (6920.T)
F6/27 order guidance ontent
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- We believe buy side expectations are at a similar level.
JEOL (6951.T)
Orders for multibeam mask writers
- Likely downside surprise - Largely unchanged
• Market expectations appear to have risen following ASML's strong earnings.
• However, JEOL has a backlog of 16 multibeam lithography systems, suggesting backlog execution takes priority over new orders.
- We do not expect a major improvement in 1Q orders.
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- In-line
— Largely unchanged
*Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS; Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
Likely impact to consensus EPS*
Modest revision lower
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Company / Focus KPI
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Focus KPI Surprise
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• We expect solid progress versus the company's 1H plan, but not a major beat given lead time constraints.
Ebara (6361.T)
Precision machinery full-year order plan
1 Very likely upside surprise
AlphaSignals Earnings Preview (4)
• Given management's conservative stance, we expect the order plan to be raised from ·405bn (+33% YoY) to around
·450bn (+50% YoY).
1 Meaningful revision higher ontent
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*Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS; Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
Likely impact to consensus EPS*
1 Modest revision higher
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Our forecasts for Ebara
| (¥mn) Order intake bysegment Order intake and net sales | F12/24 | F12/25 | F12/26 MSe | F12/27 MSe | F12/28 MSe | F12/26 Ce |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orders received | 860,579 | 949,683 | 1,158,400 | 1,253,500 | 1,393,500 | 1,070,000 |
| Precision Machinery | 260,059 | 303,447 | 492,400 | 546,500 | 651,000 | 405,000 |
| Energy | 222,743 | 194,777 | 210,000 | 242,000 | 267,000 | 210,000 |
| Building Service & Industrial | 244,401 | 249,285 | 265,000 | 274,000 | 284,500 | 265,000 |
| Infrastructure | 60,559 | 62,973 | 60,000 | 60,000 | 60,000 | 60,000 |
| Environmental Solutions | 71,594 | 135,392 | 130,000 | 130,000 | 130,000 | 130,000 |
| Others | 1,220 | 3,808 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | - |
| y-y | 5% | 10% | 22% | 8% | 11% | 13% |
| Precision Machinery | 19% | 17% | 62% | 11% | 19% | 33% |
| Energy | -0% | -13% | 8% | 15% | 10% | 8% |
| Building Service & Industrial | 10% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 6% |
| Infrastructure | 7% | 4% | -5% | 0% | 0% | -5% |
| Environmental Solutions | -29% | 89% | -4% | 0% | 0% | -4% |
| Others | 5% | 212% | -74% | 0% | 0% | -100% |
| Net sales | 866,668 | 958,285 | 1,073,000 | 1,208,200 | 1,284,200 | 1,020,000 |
| Precision Machinery | 278,378 | 342,267 | 448,300 | 538,500 | 587,000 | 400,000 |
| Energy | 210,434 | 217,845 | 208,700 | 236,700 | 256,700 | 205,000 |
| Building Service & Industrial | 238,182 | 241,938 | 260,000 | 274,000 | 284,500 | 260,000 |
| Infrastructure | 51,118 | 57,143 | 60,000 | 63,000 | 60,000 | 60,000 |
| Environmental Solutions | 87,438 | 97,864 | 95,000 | 95,000 | 95,000 | 95,000 |
| Others | 1,115 | 1,225 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | - |
| y-y | 14% | 11% | 12% | 13% | 6% | 6% |
| Precision Machinery | 13% | 23% | 31% | 20% | 9% | 17% |
| Energy | 26% | 4% | -4% | 13% | 8% | -6% |
| Building Service & Industrial | 7% | 2% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 7% |
| Infrastructure | 2% | 12% | 5% | 5% | -5% | 5% |
| Environmental Solutions | 22% | 12% | -3% | 0% | 0% | -3% |
| Others | -7% | 10% | -18% | 0% | 0% | -100% |
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research; Ce= Company estimates, MSe= Morgan Stanley Research estimates
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Memory price trends
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Source: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research
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DRAM YoY growth
Source: WSTS, Morgan Stanley Research
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DRAM bit shipment and ASP YoY growth
Source: WSTS, Morgan Stanley Research
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Taiwan test-related equipment imports from Malaysia
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Source: Ministry of Economic Affairs, R.O.C., Morgan Stanley Research
($mn)
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2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
-500
Mar-22
Jun-22
Taiwan tester import breakdown by company
Advantest
Teradyne
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Mar-24
Jun-24
Sep-24
Others
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China monthly SPE import data: Jun -7% YoY, 3MMA
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Note: Data excludes handling equipment and components
Source: General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, Morgan Stanley Research
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China monthly SPE import data
Source: General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, Morgan Stanley Research
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China monthly SPE import data
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Source: General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, Morgan Stanley Research
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China monthly SPE imports from Japan: Jun -15% YoY, 3MMA
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Note: Data excludes handling equipment and components
Source: General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, Morgan Stanley Research
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China monthly SPE imports from Japan
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Source: General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, Morgan Stanley Research
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China monthly SPE imports from Japan
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Disclosure Section
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