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報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807

更新 2026-08-10
#來源/券商報告#產業/記憶體#技術/HBM#技術/DRAM#技術/NAND

PDF 原檔：報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_original.pdf

圖片清單（已驗證 2026-08-10）

ingest 時建立的「眼見為憑」圖片索引，是 lib/ 嵌圖的唯一真相來源；嵌入時只從這裡挑分類為「真資料圖」的。<40KB 未 Read 者未列（預設 logo／裝飾）。

檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_001.png 42KB 真資料圖 Figure 4：柱狀圖，HBM bit shipment（供給）vs bit end-consumption（需求，紅框標示 inventories 差額），分 2025／2026E／2027E 三組，需求柱逐年顯著高於供給柱
報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_011.png 55KB 真資料圖 Figure 15：DDR 價格循環走勢線圖（1Q16-4Q28E），標註各段漲跌百分比（-59%／+89%／-12%／+11%／+36%／-54%／+45%／-6%／+621%），末端標示未來上行段長度「13Qs」箭頭
報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_014.png 62KB 真資料圖 Figure 16：NAND 價格循環走勢線圖，同樣式（1Q16-4Q28E），標註各段漲跌百分比與「10Qs」箭頭
報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_017.png 41KB 真資料圖 Figure 21：柱狀+折線圖，Memory Cost（$）與 Memory as % of BOM（智慧型手機 flagship/premium），1Q22-4Q27E，折線由約 20% 升至約 35%
報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_018.png 46KB 真資料圖 Figure 23：三星／SK 海力士記憶體成品晶圓與晶粒庫存週數線圖（4Q17-2Q26），紅色虛線標示「Normal level」約 4 週，右側標註「1Q26: 3.5」「2Q26: 2.5」
報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_021.png 50KB 真資料圖 Figure 24：三星／SK 海力士記憶體成品晶圓與晶粒庫存週數線圖，樣式與內容標註（含 1Q26: 3.5、2Q26: 2.5）與 018 相同，無法從圖面本身確認與 018 的 DRAM／NAND 分項差異
報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_022.png 45KB 真資料圖 Figure 25：DRAM 客戶端庫存週數折線圖，分 Server（Hyperscalers）／Smartphone OEMs／PCs 三條線（1Q22-2Q26），近期落在約 7-10 週區間
報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_023.png 48KB 真資料圖 Figure 27：DRAM 產業晶圓投片量（k wpm，柱狀）與 YoY 成長率（折線），1Q14-3Q27E，柱狀由約 1,000 升至逾 2,000
報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_026.png 52KB 真資料圖 Figure 28：NAND 產業晶圓投片量（k wpm，柱狀）與 YoY 成長率（折線），1Q14-3Q27E，柱狀約 1,000-1,700 區間震盪
報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_030.png 88KB 真資料圖 個股目標價／股價／評等歷史圖，貨幣為 US$，2023-06 至 2026-08，Price Target 由約 80 逐步階梯上調至約 1,600，Stock Price 同步走高至約 800-1,200，下方評等軸全程 Buy；圖面未標公司名，依貨幣（US$）與本報告涵蓋券商評等清單（Samsung／CXMT／Kioxia／MU／Nanya Tech／SK Hynix）推斷極可能為 MU.US(micron)（美光為報告內唯一美元計價個股）
報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_031.png 100KB 真資料圖 個股目標價／股價／評等歷史圖，貨幣為 NT$，2023-06 至 2026-08，Price Target 由約 90 階梯上調至約 540-580，Stock Price 同步走高至約 400-480；下方評等軸顯示 No Rating（2023 上半）→ Buy（2023 底起）→ 短暫 Neutral（2025 底）→ 恢復 Buy；圖面未標公司名，依貨幣（NT$）推斷極可能為 2408_南亞科技（市）（報告內唯一新台幣計價個股，價格區間與 vault 既有 TP/股價紀錄一致）
報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_032.png 98KB 真資料圖 個股目標價／股價／評等歷史圖，貨幣為 Won，2023-06 至 2026-08，Price Target 階梯上調至約 540,000，Stock Price 同步走高至約 240,000-350,000；評等軸顯示 Buy 為主、中間有一段 Neutral（約 2025Q3-Q4）；圖面未標公司名，為報告內兩張韓元計價個股圖之一，無法從圖面本身確認是三星或 SK 海力士
報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_033.png 92KB 真資料圖 個股目標價／股價／評等歷史圖，貨幣為 Won，2023-06 至 2026-08，Price Target 階梯上調至約 3,200,000，Stock Price 同步走高至約 1,300,000-2,800,000；評等軸全程 Buy 無中斷；圖面未標公司名，為報告內兩張韓元計價個股圖之一，無法從圖面本身確認是三星或 SK 海力士（連續無中斷的 Buy 軸與文字段落「Samsung Key Call Buy」語氣較吻合，但不足以視為確認）
報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_034.png 84KB 真資料圖 個股目標價／股價／評等歷史圖，貨幣為 ¥（日圓），股價線自 2024-12 附近才開始出現（此前為空白），階梯上升至約 140,000；評等軸顯示 No Rating（大部分期間）→ 僅圖表末段（約 2026Q3）轉為 Buy；圖面未標公司名，依貨幣（¥）與「股價線 2024 年底才出現＋近期才轉 Buy」的模式，推斷極可能為 285A.JP(kioxia)（鎧俠 2024-12 於東京證交所掛牌，報告內唯一日圓計價個股）

原始內容

Memory Semis Monthly

August '26 Edition: Addressing investors' three key concerns

HBM de-specing for Rubin Ultra but overall demand holding up

Our industry checks suggest Nvidia will likely initially use HBM4 8-Hi for Rubin Ultra followed by a switch to HBM4E 8-Hi. This is compared to our prior expectation of Rubin Ultra using HBM4E 12-Hi. We believe this is in response to persistent tight supply. This implies that the initial version of the VR300 will use 384GB of HBM4 per GPU (8-Hi x 24Gb x 8 x2), then moving to 512GB HBM4E (8-Hi x 32Gb x8 x2) vs. our 768GB prior estimate. Despite this, our forecast for '27E Nvidia HBM end-consumption increases slightly to 25.1bn Gb (was 24.0bn) as GPU units implied go up to 12.6mil from 11.0mil. We also increase our HBM forecast for Google TPUs to 19.2bn Gb in '27 (was 17.4bn) on unit upside. All in all, our HBM industry end-consumption estimate moves to 61.5bn Gb in 2027 (was 58.7bn) or up 91% YoY. On pricing, we now estimate HBM4E could reach US$3.9 per Gb in '27 (+75% YoY vs HBM4 in '26); HBM4 US$3.5 (+60% YoY). We forecast industry HBM blended ASPs up 79% YoY (was 66%) in '27. We see further upside to server DDR demand and hence forecast DRAM industry bit end-demand up 40% YoY in '27 (was +36%) after +21% in '26.

NAND flash contract pricing more dispersed but positive trend remains

Our checks on NAND flash (ex LTA) contract pricing negotiations suggest a wider range of QoQ NAND flash contract price increases for 3Q26E from +20% to >30% QoQ, still ahead of some of the recent market expectations of high teens up. On average, we now forecast ex LTA NAND ASPs up +23% QoQ (was +30%), +12% in 4Q (u/c), and with LTAs, closer to +20%/+8% QoQ respectively. Demand weakness for smartphones (22% of total '26E industry bit demand) and client/PC SSD (10% of total) continues. On the other hand, we see further strength in server/storage SSD demand (43% of total) and now forecast 62% YoY bit demand growth combined in '26 (was 54%) and 51% in '27 (was 45%). All in all, we forecast total NAND industry bit end demand up 23% YoY in '26 and 26% in '27 (was 20/26%) and total NAND industry revs US$301bn/492bn, close enough to SNDK's forecast (US$300bn/500bn).

CXMT not a threat to overall DRAM supply / demand

We initiate coverage of CXMT with a Buy rating (link). We forecast CXMT to reach 9% bit supply share in '27 vs. 7% in '25, with wafer capacity moving to 382k wpm by 4Q27 from 292k in 4Q26 and 240k wpm in 4Q25. We note that some of the market expectations are probably more aligned with equipment delivery vs actual installation/ validation and actual production capacity - and hence too high. CXMT is moving to G5 process tech late '26 (sub 15 nm) vs. Samsung / SK Hynix / MU moving to 1d nm (sub 11 nm) in 2H27. Furthermore, in part due to manufacturing equipment exports control, production yields for CXMT are not at par with the top 3 industry leaders.

Buy the pullback on a more sustainable cycle: Prefer DRAM, Samsung top pick

On average memory stocks have pulled back 36% from late June peak and now discount pre-AI through-cycle ROEs (eg. Samsung: 13.9% vs '12-22 average 15.2%). The main fundamental risk is memory spending sustainability for customers, notably hyperscalers. LTAs are reigning in some of the pricing upside into the upcycle and hence, we bring down our '27E memory industry revs forecasts to US$1.61tn ('26E: US $0.94tn), or 9% below prior. LTAs are OPM/ROE accretive through the cycle (link) and in essence, for memory FCF and ultimately, shareholder returns. We continue to forecast the DRAM upcycle to continue for longer than NAND (2Q28E vs. 4Q27E). We rate Samsung Key Call Buy (link); CXMT, Kioxia, MU, Nanya Tech and SK Hynix Buy.

Equities

Global

Semiconductors

Nicolas Gaudois

Analyst nicolas.gaudois@ubs.com +65-6495 5148

Timothy Arcuri

Analyst timothy.arcuri@ubs.com +1-415-352 5676

Kenji Yasui

Analyst kenji.yasui@ubs.com +81-3-5208 6211

Jimmy Yu

Analyst

S1460517080002 jimmy.yu@ubs.com +86-21-3866 8880

Jimmy Yoon

Analyst jimmy.yoon@ubs.com +65-6495 4617

Luke Yoo

Analyst luke.yoo@ubs.com +82-2-3702 8132

Gianmarco Vella

Associate Analyst gianmarco.vella@ubs.com +1-415-352 4555

Atsuhiro Kinoshita

Analyst atsuhiro.kinoshita@ubs.com +81-3-5208 6768

Sunny Lin

Analyst sunny.lin@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7346

Francois-Xavier Bouvignies

Analyst francois.bouvignies@ubs.com +44-20-7568 7105

Randy Abrams

Analyst randy.abrams@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7338

KEY Charts

Figure 1: AI server GPU/accelerator unit forecasts ('000 units)

HBM Gen. HBM Content (GB) 2025 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26E 4Q26E 2026E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2027E
NVIDIA L40S GDDR6 2025E 48 2026E 2027E 38
H200 H20 / H20E HBM3E HBM3 / 3E 141 96 593 441
B200 (8Hi) GB200 (2x GPU - 8Hi) HBM3E 192 384 1,441 103 103
B300 (12Hi) HBM3E HBM3E 384 288 288 288 1,080 587 267 300 200 100 867 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
GB300 (2x GPU - 12Hi) R200 (12Hi) HBM3E HBM4 576 576 576 778 658 670 20 580 450 320 2,358 540 360 360 270 400 180 320 90 240 900 1,320 900 1,320 900 1,320 900 1,320 900 1,320 900 1,320 900 1,320
RV200 (2x GPU - 12Hi) HBM4 288 576 288 576 40 200 250 450 740 600 720 690 630 2,640 2,640 2,640 2,640 2,640 2,640 2,640
R300 (8Hi) R300 (8Hi) HBM4 HBM4E 192 250 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400
RV300 (2x GPU - 8Hi) HBM4 HBM4E 256 384 512 250 250 250 250 250 550 550 250
RV300 (2x GPU - 8Hi) *Other GPU/Accel HBM3 / 3E 288 384 576 107 60 80 80 80 1,400 300 4,908 70 1,440 70 1,460 80 1,770 80 1,990 300 6,660 300 6,660 300 6,660 300 6,660 300 6,660 300 6,660 300 6,660
Total Units %YoY 5,066 3% 1,088 -17% 1,110 0% 1,310 3% 3% -3% 32% 32% 35% 42% 36% 36% 36% 36% 36% 36% 36%
%QoQ Total SiPs 6,924 -20% 1,849 2% 1,820 18% 2,140 7% 2,300 8,109 3% 2,400 1% 2,450 21% 2,890 12% 3,260 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000
%YoY 38% 27% 23% 15% 8% 17% 30% 35% 35% 42% 36% 36% 36% 36% 36% 36% 36%
%QoQ Total GPUs -13% -2% 18% 7% 2,300 8,109 4% 2% 18% 13% 4,360
%YoY 6,924 38% 1,849 1,820 2,140 8% 17% 2,400 2,450 12,600 55% 12,600 55% 12,600 55% 12,600 55% 12,600 55% 12,600 55% 12,600 55%
15%
%QoQ 38%
AMD 4% 2%
27% 58% 90%
23% 30% 35% 3,390
MI300 MI325X (12Hi) MI355X (12Hi) MI308X MI450 (12Hi) HBM3 HBM3E HBM3E HBM3 HBM4 192 256 288 192 256 288 432 71 224 221 96 -13% 18 170 29 -2% 150 28 18% 80 5 45 7% 70 230 18 470 62 275 350 2 450 29% 470 1,650 1,650 1,650 1,650 1,650 1,650 1,650
MI5XX (16Hi) *Other GPU/Accel Total Units HBM4E HBM3 192 192 432 192 1024 288 4 616 1 218 1 179 1 131 1 301 6 352 2 452 2 532 60 2 542 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
%YoY 831 1,878 1,878 1,878 1,878 1,878 1,878 1,878
%QoQ 86% -26% 37% 35% 61% 80% 126% 126% 126% 126% 126% 126% 126%
41% -18% 129% 152% 305%
Google TPU v5e 81% -1% 224 720 -27% 17% 28% 18% 2%
TPU v5p TPU v6e TPU v7 TPU v8i (Dual die AX) HBM2E HBM2E HBM3E 32 96 32 32 192 288 192 288 134 1,916 426 90 205 520 141 800 25 70 750 225 640 2,790 250 600 700 450 1,500 300 1,000 1,000 4,400 4,400 4,400 4,400 4,400 4,400 4,400
TPU v8t (Single *Other Total Units HBM3E HBM3E 192 216 144 216 144 1,046 37 25 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
die X) TPU/Accel %YoY HBM3E 96 77 7 9 70 10 380 10 450 700 1,200 25 25
HBM3 2,643 1,435 25 3,125
19% 732 953 66% 82% 68% 4,167 58% 2,025 177% 2,675 199% 2,175 52% 10,000 140% 10,000 140% 10,000 140% 17% -30% 10,000 140% 10,000 140%
%QoQ Amazon Inferentia 2 14% -14% 30% 10% 37% 590 96 1,780 41% 50 181% 32% 10 7
Trainium 2 / 2.5 Inferentia 3 HBM2E HBM3E 32 96 144 144 96 88 496 130 30 220 28 320 140 20 100 18 28 15 10 7 280 30 280 30 280 30 280 30 280 30 280 30 280 30
Trainium 3 Trainium 4 HBM3 HBM3E 96 144 256 162 620 840 840 780 640 540 240 2,800 2,800 2,800 2,800 2,800 2,800 2,800
*Other Accel HBM4 96 144 40
HBM3 144 144 144 37 783 5 6 8 10 8 8
Total Units %YoY 165 574 788 968 2,494 218% 913 454% 808 41% 687 787 3,195 3,195 3,195 3,195 3,195 3,195 3,195
%QoQ Intel / Habana -8% -17% -11% 180% 248% 302% 37% 424% 23% -6% -12% -13% -15% -19% 15% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28%
Gaudi 3 Gaudi 4 HBM2 / 3E HBM3E 288 288 288 288 188 30 18 8 10 25 56 35 25 20 15 10 70 70 70 70 70 70 70
*Others Total Units HBM2 / 3E 192 192 192 25 213 6 36 4 22 4 5 18 4 4 4 16 86 16 86 16 86 16 86 16 86 16 86 16 86
%YoY %QoQ -32% 22 30 -46% 109 -49% 29 -19% 24 11% 19 -12% -21% 4 14 -53% -26% -21% -21% -21% -21% -21% -21% -21%
Microsoft Maia 100 HBM3 -20% -36% 3 -60% -40% 1 -63% 0% 39% 4 -3% -17% 35 35 35 35 35 35 35
Maia 200 Maia 300 HBM3E HBM4 120 120 288 288 34 2 6 2 10 10 7 8 2 4 14 4 14 4 14 4 14 4 14 4 14 4 14
*Others HBM3 120 192 288 192 8 42 9 14 33 14
Total Units %YoY 2 7 2 12 2 16 8 45 7% 2 16 2 2 20 22 65 22 65 22 65 22 65 22 65 22 65 22 65
%QoQ Meta 22% 22% 4% 40% 84% 29% 119% 0% 12 17 36% 42% 24% 18%
-27% -17% -19% 35% -25% 45% 45% 45% 45%
MTIA v1 LPDDR5 64 20 5 2 25
MTIA v2 MTIA v3 MTIA v4 LPDDR5 HBM3E 128 64 128 421 30 20 15 8 20 35 30 110 40 30 20 15 120 40 105 340 105 340
HBM4 192 64 192 192 432 5 6 40 5 80 5 100 20 20 20 20 20 20
*Others Total Units LPDDR5 128 128 28 484 3 58 1 34 1 38 1 41 171 -65% 85 47% 115 235% 5 125 228% 9% 5 140 35% 240% 12% 465 171%
%YoY %QoQ Tesla 19% -43% -71% -71% 11% -68% 8% 106%
Dojo 64 62 -56% 17 -41% 18 15 14 15 15 18 15 5 20 63 22 63 22
*Others Total Units %YoY HBM3 HBM3 64 64 64 64 64 44 106 7 24 7 25 -9% 6% 6 21 -24% 6 20 64 26 90 6 21 -12% -17% 10% 5 23 2% 6 85 85
%QoQ Others -39% -12% 2% -17% -16% -7% -15% 7% 21 0% 10% -5%
170 -13% 725 254 725 254 725 254 725 254 725 254
Startups Others Total Units HBM3 HBM2E /3 192 192 288 288 288 288 657 361 150 30 150 30 180 155 39 194 155 39 194 610 180 138 63 60 243 185 65 250 67 190 257
%YoY %QoQ 1,019 59% 180 -28% -26% -32% 0% -26% 8% -20% 0% 748 -27% 230 28% 18% 35% 6% 29% 3% 32% 3% 979 31% 979 31% 979 31% 979 31% 979 31%
Total GPU / Accelerator Units ('000) ('000) ('000) 12,829 3,269 3,797 4,412 5,455 16,933 6,231 ('000) ('000) ('000) ('000) 6,970 ('000) 7,848 7,445 28,493 ('000)

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 2: HBM demand forecasts by GPU/accelerator

HBM Gen. HBM Content (GB) 2025 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26E 4Q26E 2026E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2027E
NVIDIA H200 2025E 2026E 2027E
H20 / H20E HBM3E HBM3 / 3E 141 96 83,571 42,336
B200 (8Hi) GB200 (2x GPU - HBM3E 192 384 276,649
8Hi) HBM3E 414,872
384 39,504 39,504
B300 (12Hi) HBM3E 288 288 288 169,176 76,896 86,400 57,600 28,800 249,696 14,400 14,400 14,400 14,400 14,400 14,400 14,400 14,400 14,400 14,400
GB300 (2x GPU - 12Hi) HBM3E 576 576 576 448,259 379,008 385,920 334,080 259,200 1,358,208 207,360 155,520 103,680 51,840 518,400 518,400 518,400 518,400 518,400 518,400 518,400 518,400 518,400
R200 (12Hi) HBM4 288 288 5,760 57,600 92,160 155,520 103,680 115,200 92,160 69,120 380,160 380,160 380,160 380,160 380,160 380,160 380,160 380,160 380,160
RV200 (2x GPU - 12Hi) HBM4 576 576 23,040 144,000 259,200 426,240 345,600 414,720 397,440 362,880 1,520,640 1,520,640 1,520,640 1,520,640 1,520,640 1,520,640 1,520,640 1,520,640 1,520,640
R300 (12Hi) HBM4 192 48,000 102,400 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000
R300 (12Hi) RV300 (4x GPU - 12Hi) HBM4E 256 96,000 102,400 96,000 102,400 96,000 102,400 96,000 102,400 96,000 102,400 96,000 102,400 96,000 102,400 96,000 102,400 96,000 102,400 96,000
RV300 (4x GPU - 12Hi) HBM4 HBM4E 384 512 281,600 281,600 281,600 281,600 281,600 281,600 281,600 281,600 281,600 281,600
*Other GPU/Accel HBM3 / 3E 288 384 576 30,787 23,040 30,720 30,720 30,720 115,200 40,320 40,320 46,080 46,080 172,800 172,800 172,800 172,800 172,800 172,800 172,800 172,800 172,800
Total ('000 GB) 1,465,650 531,840 624,000 2,344,368 3,134,400 3,134,400 3,134,400 3,134,400 3,134,400 3,134,400 3,134,400 3,134,400 3,134,400
Total (bn Gb) 11.73 518,448 4.15 4.25 4.99 670,080 5.36 18.75 711,360 5.69 725,760 5.81 783,360 6.27 913,920 7.31 913,920 7.31 913,920 7.31 913,920 7.31 913,920 7.31 913,920 7.31 913,920 7.31 25.08 913,920 7.31
AMD
MI300 HBM3 192 13,685
MI325X (12Hi) HBM3E 256 256 57,294 4,608 4,608
MI355X (12Hi) 135,360
HBM3E 288 288 63,569 48,960 43,200 23,040 20,160 11,904
MI308X HBM3 192 192 432 18,394 5,568 5,376 960 712,800
MI450 (12Hi) MI5XX (16Hi) HBM4 432 19,440 99,360 118,800 151,200 194,400 203,040 61,440 164,160 164,160 164,160 164,160 164,160 164,160 164,160 164,160 164,160
*Other GPU/Accel HBM4E 812 274 285 163,840 225,280 225,280 225,280 225,280 225,280 225,280 225,280 225,280 225,280
Total ('000 GB) HBM3 192 192 1,024 288 282 281 1,123 576 576 576 576 2,304 2,304 2,304 2,304 2,304 2,304 2,304 2,304 2,304
153,754 59,410 48,861 43,722 119,801 271,795 151,776 194,976 265,056 328,576 940,384 940,384 940,384 940,384 940,384 940,384 940,384 940,384 940,384
Total (bn Gb) 7.52 7.52 7.52 7.52 7.52 7.52 7.52 7.52 7.52
Google 1.23 0.48 0.39 0.35 0.96 2.17 1.21 1.56 2.12 2.63 2.63 2.63 2.63 2.63 2.63 2.63 2.63 2.63
TPU v5e HBM2E 4,282
TPU v5p TPU v6e HBM2E HBM3E 32 96 32 32 183,913 2,253 20,480
TPU v7 HBM3E 192 192 192 13,632 17,280 6,554 99,840 7,168 138,240 4,506 153,600 144,000 535,680 115,200 86,400 57,600 28,800 288,000 288,000 288,000 288,000 288,000 288,000 288,000 288,000 288,000
TPU v8i (Dual die AX) HBM3E 7,200 64,800 288,000 1,152,000 1,152,000 1,152,000 1,152,000 1,152,000 1,152,000 1,152,000 1,152,000 1,152,000
TPU v8t (Single die X) HBM3E 288 288 15,120 82,080 72,000 97,200 201,600 288,000 374,400
*Other TPU/Accel HBM3 216 144 216 144 1,359 1,492 1,440 5,335 151,200 3,600 259,200 3,600 324,000 3,600 216,000 950,400 14,400 950,400 14,400 950,400 14,400 950,400 14,400 950,400 14,400 950,400 14,400 2,404,800 950,400 14,400
Total ('000 GB) Total (bn Gb) Amazon Inferentia 2 HBM2E 96 32 7,389 226,495 1,044 107,437 0.86 146,767 1.17 181,917 1.46 294,573 2.36 730,695 5.85 3.77 471,600 637,200 5.10 3,600 759,600 6.08 536,400 4.29 77,760 403,200 71,680 403,200 71,680 403,200 71,680 403,200 71,680 403,200 71,680 403,200 71,680 403,200 71,680 403,200 71,680
Trainium 2 / 2.5 Inferentia 3 Trainium 3 Trainium 4 HBM3E HBM3 HBM3E HBM4 96 96 144 96 144 144 96 144 1.81 2,823 47,574 15,563 18,720 2,880 31,680 2,688 46,080 20,160 1,920 89,280 1,123 14,400 1,728 120,960 1,380 84,960 7,200 9,216 1,440 256,320 120,960 112,320 1,440 10,240 92,160 61,440 960 4,320 960 4,320 960 4,320 960 4,320 960 4,320 960 4,320 960 4,320
*Other Accel HBM3 144 691 818 1,152 1,152 1,008
144 256 144 5,375 4,012 1,008
Total ('000 GB) 81,266 103,408
Total (bn Gb) 71,336 22,291 112,483 138,468 354,508 130,752 140,208 490,240 490,240 490,240 490,240 490,240 490,240 490,240
Intel 0.57 0.18 0.90 1.11 2.84 1.05 115,872 0.93 0.83 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 3.92 1.12
Gaudi 3 Gaudi 4 *Others HBM2 / 3E HBM3E HBM2 / 3E 288 288 288 288 54,212 4,789 8,640 0.65 5,184 2,304 2,880 691 7,200 960 8,160 16,128 10,080 7,200 3,494 768 7,968 5,760 2,880 20,160 3,072 20,160 3,072 20,160 3,072 20,160 3,072 20,160 3,072 20,160 3,072 20,160 3,072 20,160 3,072
Total ('000 GB) Total (bn Gb) 192 192 192 59,001 1,152 691 5,875 768 4,320 768 0.03
9,792 5,875 0.05 0.07 29,702 0.24 0.06 768 3,648 23,232 23,232 23,232 23,232 23,232 23,232 0.19 23,232
Microsoft Maia 100 Maia 200 HBM3 HBM3E 120 120 288 288 0.47 4,050 0.08 360 660 0.05 120 1,696 3,016 4,052 480 9,424 4,032 2,880 6,528 0.05 5,088 0.04 1,152 4,032 384 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14
*Others Total ('000 GB) HBM4 HBM3 120 5,010 384 384 384 1,536 11,440 384 384 3,264 2,016 384 4,704 0.04 6,336 1,536 17,952 6,336 1,536 17,952 6,336 1,536 17,952 6,336 1,536 17,952 6,336 1,536 17,952 6,336 1,536 17,952 6,336 1,536 17,952
192 0.04 384 2,304
Maia 300 192 288 192 960 3,400 5,568
0.03 4,436 4,416
Total (bn Gb) 1,404 0.01 2,200 0.02 0.04 0.09 0.04 0.03 0.04 20,160 146,880 167,040 20,160 146,880 167,040 20,160 146,880 167,040 20,160 146,880 167,040 20,160 146,880 167,040 20,160 146,880 167,040 20,160 146,880 167,040 20,160 146,880 167,040
Meta MTIA v3 MTIA v4 HBM3E HBM4 192 960 2,880 2,880 3,840 3,840 6,720 7,680 21,120 5,760 34,560 3,840 43,200 7,680 17,280 2,880 51,840 54,720
Total ('000 GB) Total (bn Gb) 192 432 960 0.01 0.02 1,523 0.03 1,613 6,720 0.05 1,344 7,680 0.06 1,255 21,120 0.17 24,960 0.20 0.32 1,344 47,040 0.38 0.44 40,320 1,472 1.34 1.34 1.34
Others Tesla Startups / Etc. Total ('000 GB) HBM3 HBM2E / 3 64 192 288 51,840 53,453 55,800 57,144 5,735 215,280 71,928 73,400 1,344 66,096 67,440 1,280 0.60 73,872 75,152
64 6,780 5,440 281,880 5,440 281,880 5,440 281,880 5,440 281,880 5,440 281,880
Total (bn Gb) 195,559 202,339 51,840 55,800 69,984 71,328 287,320 287,320 287,320 287,320 287,320 287,320 287,320 287,320
0.43 0.46 57,055 0.46 221,015 1.77 0.54 0.57 0.59 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30
1.62 53,363 0.43 874,103 6.99 1,332,654 10.66 77% 4,021,364 32.17 1,604,832 12.84 1,831,968 14.66 2,098,536 16.79 102% 2,154,672 17.24 7,690,008 61.52 91% 7,690,008 61.52 91% 7,690,008 61.52 91% 7,690,008 61.52 91% 7,690,008 61.52 91% 7,690,008 61.52 91% 7,690,008 61.52 91% 7,690,008 61.52 91% 7,690,008 61.52 91% 7,690,008 61.52 91%
Total HBM Demand Total HBM Demand %YoY ('000 GB) (bn Gb) 2,184,545 17.48 103% 775,025 6.20 97% 103% 8.32 72% 84% 107% 1,039,582 110% 62%

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 3: HBM vendors' bit shipments

(M 1Gb) 2025 Q126 Q226 Q326E Q426E 2026E Q127E Q227E Q327E Q427E 2027E
SK Hynix 12,628 3,803 3,804 4,559 5,072 17,237 4,915 5,118 5,466 5,796 21,295
%YoY 86% 31% 20% 41% 53% 36% 29% 35% 20% 14% 24%
%QoQ 15% 0% 20% 11% -3% 4% 7% 6%
Samsung 4,327 1,519 2,061 3,384 4,436 11,400 4,879 5,266 5,801 6,242 22,189
%YoY -15% 161% 170% 140% 182% 163% 221% 156% 71% 41% 95%
%QoQ -3% 36% 64% 31% 10% 8% 10% 8%
Micron 4,584 1,612 1,821 2,040 2,305 7,778 2,536 2,840 3,152 3,436 11,964
%YoY 417% 106% 60% 62% 64% 70% 57% 56% 55% 49% 54%
%QoQ 15% 13% 12% 13% 10% 12% 11% 9%
Total Supply 21,539 6,934 7,686 9,983 11,812 36,415 12,330 13,223 14,419 15,475 55,447
%YoY 69% 62% 52% 69% 88% 69% 78% 72% 44% 31% 52%
%QoQ 10% 11% 30% 18% 4% 7% 9% 7%

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 4: Adjusted HBM supply vs demand

報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_001

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 5: HBM as % of total DRAM revenues

報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_002

Source: UBS estimates

Figure 6: HBM as % of total DRAM bits

報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_003

Source: UBS estimates

Figure 7: HBM ASP forecasts (US$/1Gb)

報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_004

Source: UBS estimates

Figure 9: DRAM industry capacity (k wpm) breakdown between DDR and HBM

報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_005

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 11: HBM demand by type (2026E)

報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_006

Source: UBS estimates

Figure 8: HBM bit share by vendor

報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_007

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 10: DRAM capacity (k wpm) breakdown between DDR and HBM by supplier

報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_008

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 12: HBM demand by type (2027E)

報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_009

Source: UBS estimates

052$

00'2$

OS I$

00'1$

OS'O$

00'0$

%68+

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SOEL

Figure 13: HBM demand by customer (2026E)

%65-

報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_010

Source: UBS estimates

Figure 15: DDR cycles in context

報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_011

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 17: DRAM bit demand per application (2026E)

報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_012

Source: Gartner, UBS estimates

Ot'O$

SEO$

OE'O$

SZO$

SL'O$

OL'O$

SO'O$

00'0$

1Q16

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Figure 14: HBM demand by customer (2027E)

% 09-

%EL+

4Q16

報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_013

Source: UBS estimates

Figure 16: NAND cycles in context

報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_014

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 18: DRAM bit demand per application (2027E)

報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_015

Source: Gartner, UBS estimates

4028E

Figure 19: NAND bit demand per application (2026E)

報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_016

5,500

Source: Gartner, UBS estimates

Figure 21: Memory as % of flagship/premium smartphone BOM costs, 1Q22-4Q27E

報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_017

Source: Counterpoint, Fomalhaut, UBS estimates

Figure 23: Samsung and SK Hynix - DRAM finished wafers and dies inventories

報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_018

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 20: NAND bit demand per application (2027E)

報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_019

Source: Gartner, UBS estimates

Figure 22: Memory as % of mid-range/lower-end smartphones, 1Q22-4Q27E

報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_020

Source: UBS estimates

Figure 24: Samsung and SK Hynix - NAND finished wafers and dies inventories

報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_021

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 25: DRAM customer inventories (weeks)

報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_022

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 27: DRAM industry wafer starts and YoY growth

報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_023

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 29: DRAM industry bit supply and YoY growth

報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_024

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 26: NAND customer inventories (weeks)

報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_025

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 28: NAND industry wafer starts and YoY growth

報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_026

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 30: NAND industry bit supply and YoY growth

報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_027

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 31: CXMT wafer capacity and as % of DRAM industry

報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_028

Source: UBS estimates

Figure 32: CXMT bit shipments and as % of DRAM industry

報告_UBS_記憶體月報_20260807_029

Source: UBS estimates

Figure 33: UBS DRAM supply/demand summary

Q125 Q225 Q325 Q425 2025 Q126 Q226 Q326E Q426E 2026E Q127E Q227E Q327E Q427E 2027E
Revenues ($ mil) 26,415 31,776 39,234 52,958 150,384 98,109 146,320 185,464 212,130 642,023 241,172 268,773 294,065 313,825 1,117,835
%QoQ -7.3% 20.3% 23.5% 35.0% 85.3% 49.1% 26.8% 14.4% 13.7% 11.4% 9.4% 6.7%
%YoY 46.4% 39.0% 54.3% 85.8% 58.6% 271.4% 360.5% 372.7% 300.6% 326.9% 145.8% 83.7% 58.6% 47.9% 74.1%
Supply (Shipments Based) (M 1Gb) Supply (Shipments Based) (M 1Gb) 64,317 75,938 85,576 87,400 313,229 89,789 96,744 102,723 107,178 396,433 109,881 116,451 123,213 128,510 478,055
%QoQ -2.6% 18.1% 12.7% 2.1% 2.7% 7.7% 6.2% 4.3% 2.5% 6.0% 5.8% 4.3%
%YoY 3.4% 14.2% 28.9% 32.3% 19.9% 39.6% 27.4% 20.0% 22.6% 26.6% 22.4% 20.4% 19.9% 19.9% 20.6%
Demand (End Consumption) (M 1Gb) Demand (End Consumption) (M 1Gb) 69,879 73,066 87,229 94,120 324,295 89,603 91,394 100,943 109,547 391,487 112,620 125,154 144,918 165,927 548,619
%QoQ 0.2% 4.6% 19.4% 7.9% -4.8% 2.0% 10.4% 8.5% 2.8% 11.1% 15.8% 14.5%
%YoY 17.5% 21.0% 35.1% 34.9% 27.6% 28.2% 25.1% 15.7% 16.4% 20.7% 25.7% 36.9% 43.6% 51.5% 40.1%
DDR Demand (M 1Gb) 306,809 359,316 487,099
%YoY 24.9% 17.1% 35.6%
Inventory adjustment -6,150 3,250 200 -700 -3,400 17,300 13,850 6,900 -750 37,300 -1,200 -8,300 -21,400 -36,600 -67,500
Inventory Adj. Demand (M 1Gb) 63,729 76,316 87,429 93,420 320,895 106,903 105,244 107,843 108,797 428,787 111,420 116,854 123,518 129,327 481,119
%QoQ -5.8% 19.8% 14.6% 6.9% 14.4% -1.6% 2.5% 0.9% 2.4% 4.9% 5.7% 4.7%
%YoY 1.6% 10.5% 28.7% 38.1% 20.0% 67.7% 37.9% 23.3% 16.5% 33.6% 4.2% 11.0% 14.5% 18.9% 12.2%
Wafer out (k wpm, 12" equi.) 1,716 1,764 1,804 1,854 1,784 1,889 1,907 1,929 1,961 1,921 2,009 2,066 2,134 2,203 2,103
%QoQ 2.5% 2.8% 2.3% 2.8% 1.9% 1.0% 1.2% 1.7% 2.4% 2.9% 3.3% 3.2%
%YoY 17.9% 16.5% 13.4% 10.8% 14.5% 10.1% 8.1% 7.0% 5.8% 7.7% 6.3% 8.4% 10.6% 12.3% 9.4%
%Sufficiency Ratio 0.9% -0.5% -2.1% -6.4% -2.4% -16.0% -8.1% -4.7% -1.5% -7.5% -1.4% -0.3% -0.2% -0.6% -0.6%
Blended ASP incl. HBM ($/Gb) Blended ASP incl. HBM ($/Gb) 0.41 0.42 0.46 0.61 0.48 1.09 1.51 1.81 1.98 1.62 2.19 2.31 2.39 2.44 2.34
%QoQ -4.8% 1.9% 9.6% 32.2% 80.3% 38.4% 19.4% 9.6% 10.9% 5.2% 3.4% 2.3%
%YoY 41.5% 21.8% 19.7% 40.4% 32.2% 166.0% 261.4% 293.8% 226.6% 237.3% 100.9% 52.6% 32.2% 23.4% 44.4%
DDR ASP ($/Gb) 0.33 0.35 0.38 0.53 0.40 1.05 1.51 1.81 1.99 1.61 2.11 2.21 2.28 2.32 2.24
%QoQ -6.2% 7.0% 7.0% 42.0% 97.0% 43.0% 20.0% 10.0% 6.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0%
%YoY 20.3% 10.6% 11.8% 52.5% 26.4% 220.3% 328.0% 380.0% 271.9% 297.2% 100.1% 46.9% 26.1% 16.9% 39.1%
HBM ASP ($/Gb) 1.42 1.55 1.56 1.52 1.52 1.57 1.59 1.79 1.91 1.74 2.89 3.06 3.20 3.31 3.13
%QoQ 2.7% 9.4% 0.4% -2.5% 3.0% 1.4% 12.7% 6.7% 51.4% 5.7% 4.8% 3.2%
%YoY 25.6% 28.3% 16.9% 10.0% 15.6% 10.3% 2.3% 14.8% 25.6% 14.8% 84.6% 92.5% 79.0% 73.2% 79.4%

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 34: DRAM vendors' market share in bit shipments

Q125 Q225 Q325 Q425 2025 Q126 Q226 Q326E Q426E 2026E Q127E Q227E Q327E Q427E 2027E
Samsung 39.7% 37.5% 38.3% 38.2% 38.4% 37.6% 38.7% 38.3% 36.0% 37.6% 37.0% 37.7% 37.7% 37.4% 37.4%
SK Hynix 29.1% 30.9% 29.6% 29.2% 29.7% 28.3% 28.3% 29.4% 31.5% 29.5% 29.8% 29.3% 29.2% 29.1% 29.3%
Micron 23.0% 23.4% 23.9% 23.5% 23.5% 24.1% 23.0% 22.4% 22.4% 22.9% 22.7% 22.5% 22.3% 22.2% 22.4%
Nanya Tech 1.0% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 1.5% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.1% 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 1.3% 1.4% 1.2%
CXMT 6.8% 6.5% 6.4% 7.0% 6.7% 8.2% 8.3% 8.4% 8.8% 8.4% 9.2% 9.2% 9.4% 9.7% 9.4%
Others 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Total Supply 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Source: Gartner, Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 35: DRAM vendors' bit shipments QoQ and YoY growth

Q125 QoQ Q225 QoQ Q325 QoQ Q425 QoQ 2025 YoY Q126 QoQ Q226 QoQ Q326E QoQ Q426E QoQ 2026E YoY Q127E QoQ Q226E QoQ Q327E QoQ Q427E QoQ 2027E YoY
Samsung 1.5% 11.5% 15.0% 2.0% 9.7% 1.0% 11.0% 5.0% -2.0% 24.0% 5.4% 7.9% 5.8% 3.5% 20.0%
SK Hynix -7.0% 25.0% 8.0% 0.8% 24.3% -0.3% 7.5% 10.3% 12.0% 25.6% -3.1% 4.1% 5.4% 4.0% 20.0%
Micron -8.0% 20.3% 15.0% 0.5% 21.8% 5.1% 3.2% 3.4% 4.0% 23.5% 4.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.0% 17.9%
Nanya Tech 8.4% 68.0% 26.4% 11.9% 54.3% -6.2% -3.0% -6.7% -6.9% 15.3% 2.5% 5.6% 17.6% 14.9% 9.7%
CXMT 14.0% 12.5% 10.8% 12.8% 67.5% 19.2% 9.4% 7.6% 9.1% 59.7% 7.2% 6.8% 7.9% 7.9% 34.8%
Others -4.8% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 3.1% -2.3% 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 2.4% -2.3% 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Bit supply Growth -2.6% 18.1% 12.7% 2.1% 19.9% 2.7% 7.7% 6.2% 4.3% 26.6% 2.5% 6.0% 5.8% 4.3% 20.6%

Source: Gartner, Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 36: DRAM vendors' wafers out (k wpm, 12" equivalent)

Q125 Q225 Q325 Q425 2025 Q126 Q226 Q326E Q426E 2026E Q127E Q227E Q327E Q427E 2027E
Samsung 663 667 668 674 668 676 678 685 689 682 695 707 719 731 713
SK Hynix 475 499 519 544 509 564 572 583 600 580 618 636 654 672 645
Micron 315 313 311 309 312 307 307 307 307 307 317 327 337 347 332
Nanya Tech 49 53 59 60 57 60 60 60 60 60 60 63 70 78 70
CXMT 164 182 198 217 190 232 240 244 256 243 269 284 304 325 295
Other 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Total 1,716 1,764 1,804 1,854 1,784 1,889 1,907 1,929 1,961 1,921 2,009 2,066 2,134 2,203 2,103
%YoY 17.9% 16.5% 13.4% 10.8% 14.5% 10.1% 8.1% 7.0% 5.8% 7.7% 6.3% 8.4% 10.6% 12.3% 9.4%

Source: Gartner, Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 37: DRAM bit demand growth by application

Q125 QoQ Q225 QoQ Q325 QoQ Q425 QoQ 2025 YoY Q126 QoQ Q226 QoQ Q326E QoQ Q426E QoQ 2026E YoY Q127E QoQ Q226E QoQ Q327E QoQ Q427E QoQ 2027E YoY
Total PC DRAM -6.1% 13.8% 18.5% 3.0% 20.2% -15.2% -2.0% 1.2% -1.4% -4.6% -10.3% 8.8% 17.1% 7.1% 5.0%
Desktops 0.4% 10.8% 9.3% 5.6% 22.8% -12.9% -5.4% -6.1% 0.2% -9.7% -3.9% 8.4% 15.2% 10.7% 8.3%
Notebooks -8.1% 14.6% 20.7% 2.2% 24.3% -15.3% -0.2% 2.5% -1.1% -2.3% -10.3% 9.6% 18.3% 7.7% 7.9%
Upgrade Modules -8.1% 17.3% 27.5% 1.9% -10.9% -20.0% -8.3% 12.1% -8.3% -8.7% -30.0% 0.0% 10.0% -18.6% -32.2%
Servers 5.4% 7.2% 35.8% 11.1% 57.3% 0.9% 7.1% 18.6% 9.1% 49.9% 16.8% 19.7% 21.3% 16.8% 83.1%
Graphics 13.2% 13.4% 17.5% -1.0% 26.8% -9.7% 5.3% 13.4% 0.0% 10.5% -8.4% 4.9% 13.1% -0.2% 8.8%
Game Consoles 22.7% 4.2% 4.0% 1.9% 18.3% 0.3% 2.3% 4.2% -8.5% 6.5% 2.3% 2.7% 4.3% -3.4% 1.5%
HDTVs -17.5% 1.8% 21.2% 5.8% 9.7% -21.5% 1.3% 16.2% 14.5% 2.0% -21.1% 3.4% 15.7% 12.2% 7.2%
Total Mobile DRAM -5.6% -1.0% 14.1% 10.2% 15.6% -13.2% -6.3% 4.4% 12.6% -0.6% -7.5% -2.9% 8.1% 16.0% 7.5%
Smartphones -4.8% -1.4% 14.6% 10.1% 16.7% -13.2% -7.1% 4.4% 12.8% -1.2% -6.8% -3.5% 8.1% 16.6% 7.8%
Apple -31.8% -5.6% 29.4% 80.5% 31.3% -32.6% -5.8% 4.7% 74.7% 28.6% -32.1% -5.8% 1.1% 87.0% 17.5%
Samsung 26.2% -7.0% 11.5% -2.8% 17.6% 8.3% 4.5% 6.9% -10.0% 14.5% 16.0% -8.1% 9.5% -9.5% -15.9%
Non-Apple/Samsung -3.0% 1.7% 11.8% -6.1% 12.0% -9.7% -12.4% 3.0% -3.8% -16.7% 3.2% 0.2% 11.1% -3.6% 13.8%
Tablet PCs -16.0% 5.0% 8.9% 10.2% 3.2% -13.1% 4.1% 5.3% 10.2% 6.9% -16.3% 5.3% 8.4% 8.9% 3.2%
Others 4.3% 4.0% 2.8% 2.9% 12.2% 3.0% 2.6% 1.8% 7.3% 12.8% -11.2% 2.7% 3.6% 8.8% 0.8%
Total Bit Demand 0.2% 4.6% 19.4% 7.9% 27.6% -4.8% 2.0% 10.4% 8.5% 20.7% 2.8% 11.1% 15.8% 14.5% 40.1%

Source: Gartner, Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 38: DRAM content assumptions (MB/unit) by application

Q125 Q225 Q325 Q425 2025 Q126 Q226 Q326E Q426E 2026E Q127E Q227E Q327E Q427E 2027E
Total PC 12,038 12,569 12,982 13,302 12,766 13,312 13,548 13,745 13,965 13,637 14,008 14,214 14,697 15,231 14,579
%YoY 9% 12% 15% 16% 13% 11% 8% 6% 5% 7% 5% 5% 7% 9% 7%
Desktops 11,860 12,370 12,422 12,422 12,283 12,422 12,622 12,822 13,022 12,708 13,022 13,222 13,722 14,222 13,589
Notebooks 12,401 13,001 13,601 14,081 13,328 14,081 14,281 14,481 14,681 14,379 14,681 14,881 15,381 15,881 15,252
Upgrade Modules 9,900 10,100 10,300 10,500 10,232 10,500 10,700 10,900 11,100 10,794 11,100 11,100 11,100 11,300 11,144
Servers 667,847 707,847 770,462 836,694 752,827 871,694 916,694 966,694 1,026,434 949,280 1,176,434 1,376,434 1,576,434 1,792,029 1,490,002
%YoY 17% 20% 26% 34% 26% 31% 30% 25% 23% 26% 35% 50% 63% 75% 57%
Smartphones 7,739 7,829 8,255 8,611 8,126 8,664 8,692 8,988 9,333 8,924 9,240 9,104 9,321 10,014 9,438
%YoY 11% 11% 13% 15% 13% 12% 11% 9% 8% 10% 7% 5% 4% 7% 12,800 6%
Apple 7,600 7,700 8,940 9,590 8,652 9,690 9,690 10,400 10,800 10,227 11,000 11,000 11,400 11,711
Samsung 8,619 8,359 8,866 8,764 8,655 9,573 9,202 9,643 9,577 9,496 9,989 9,538 10,126 9,917 7,749

Source: Gartner, Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 39: UBS server DRAM bottom-up model

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E
Total Server shipments (K unit) 13,550 13,967 14,943 14,087 16,025 20,078 23,874 27,844
%YoY 7.5% 3.1% 7.0% -5.7% 13.8% 25.3% 18.9% 16.6%
Traditional enterprise 5,403 5,147 5,028 4,217 4,283 4,214 4,298 4,384
%YoY -5.9% -4.7% -2.3% -16.1% 1.6% -1.6% 2.0% 2.0%
%of total 39.9% 36.8% 33.6% 29.9% 26.7% 21.0% 18.0% 15.7%
Hyperscalers 8,147 8,822 9,915 9,883 11,102 15,864 19,576 23,460
%YoY 25.2% 8.3% 12.4% -0.3% 12.3% 42.9% 23.4% 19.8%
%of total 60.1% 63.2% 66.4% 70.2% 69.3% 79.0% 82.0% 84.3%
Standard servers 7,355 7,914 8,916 8,841 9,265 14,363 18,164 21,427
%of %YoY 23.8% 7.6% 12.7% -0.8% 4.8% 55.0% 90.5% 26.5% 18.0% 91.3%
total hyperscalers %of total servers 90.3% 89.7% 89.9% 89.5% 83.5% 92.8%
54.3% 56.7% 59.7% 62.8% 57.8% 71.5% 76.1% 77.0%
AI Servers %YoY 520 630 730 783 1,591 1,243 1,146 1,759
%of hyperscalers 73.3% 21.2% 15.9% 7.3% 103.1% -21.8% -7.8% 53.5%
total %of total servers 6.4% 3.8% 7.1% 4.5% 7.4% 4.9% 7.9% 5.6% 14.3% 9.9% 7.8% 5.9% 4.8% 7.5% 6.3%
Database servers 272 270 259 246 6.2% 258 266 274
%YoY 278 5.0% 3.0%
%of total hyperscalers 2.0% 2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% 3.0%
%of total servers 3.3% 3.1% 2.7% 2.6% 2.2% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2%
Avg. DRAM content (GB) 392 457 461 524 576 735 927 1,455
%YoY 32.5% 16.7% 0.9% 13.5% 9.9% 27.7% 26.1% 57.0%
Traditional enterprise 356 417 420 464 470 480 500 520
%YoY 27.4% 17.3% 0.7% 10.3% 1.4% 2.1% 4.2% 4.0%
Hyperscalers Blended 416 480 482 549 650 803 1,021 1,630
%YoY 27.3% 15.5% 0.4% 13.8% 18.4% 23.5% 27.1% 59.7%
Standard servers %YoY 28.3% 7.3%
11.7% 0.5% 6.3% 1.1% 3.4% 7.8%
AI servers 600 840 860 1,348 1,647 4,435 8,961 14,754
%YoY 7.1% 40.0% 2.4% 56.8% 22.1% 169.3% 102.1% 64.7%
Database Servers %YoY 900 1,100 1,120 1.8% 1,200 7.1% 1,210 0.8% 1,280 5.8% 1,340 4.7% 1,420
Total DRAM Demand (mn Gb) 36.4% 42,491 22.2% 51,095 55,158 59,039 73,831 118,088 177,057 6.0% 324,124
%YoY 42.3% 20.2% 8.0% 7.0% 25.1% 59.9% 49.9% 83.1%
Total DDR Demand (mn Gb) 42,491 51,095 55,158 56,355 65,224 100,602 144,886 262,604
Traditional enterprise %YoY 42.3% 20.2% 8.0% 2.2% 15.7% 54.2% 44.0% 81.2%
%YoY 15,382 17,191 11.8% 16,908 -1.6% 15,641 -7.5% 16,106 3.0% 16,181 0.5% 17,193 6.3% 18,238
Hyperscalers 19.8% 27,110 33,904 38,250 43,398 57,725 101,907 159,864 6.1% 305,886
Standard %YoY 59.3% 25.1% 13.5% 76.5% 91.3%
servers 22,652 27,225 12.8% 30,813 32,465 33.0% 34,393 55,152 56.9% 74,835 95,136
%YoY 58.9% 20.2% 13.2% 5.4% 5.9% 60.4% 35.7% 27.1%
servers 2,496 4,234 5,022 8,448 20,952 44,111 82,179 207,639
AI %YoY 69.6%
HBM DRAM 85.7% 152.7%
18.6% 86.3%
110.5%
Demand 68.2% 148.0% 17,486 32,171 61,520
2,684 8,607 220.7% 103.2% 26,625 84.0% 50,009 91.2% 146,119
DDR DRAM Demand %YoY 12,345 87.8% 192.2%
LPDDR / SOCAMM %YoY 6,081 103.0% 115.7% 14,626 38,001
Demand 468 7,613 159.8%
%YoY 1,962 2,445 2,415 -1.2% 1527.9% 2,643 92.1% 2,850 3,111
Database Servers %YoY 39.1% 24.7% 2,484 2,380 11.1% 7.8% 9.1%
2.9%
-4.2%

Source: Dell'Oro Group, Gartner, Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 40: UBS bottom-up server procurement model (k units)

(K Units) 2022 2023 2024 2025 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26E 4Q26E 2026E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E 2027E
Quarterly
Alphabet 1,039 1,085 1,247 1,845 530 600 580 640 2,350 720 720 760 750 2,950
AWS 2,237 2,131 2,276 3,087 940 960 1,020 1,000 3,920 1,150 1,180 1,250 1,240 4,820
Microsoft 1,056 1,274 1,468 2,457 680 760 830 820 3,090 850 920 1,000 970 3,740
Meta 2,192 2,027 2,188 3,409 950 1,080 1,100 1,050 4,180 1,200 1,280 1,250 1,260 4,990
Baidu 71 70 37 30 10 10 11 10 41 13 14 13 12 52
Alibaba 376 188 305 456 135 145 155 160 595 158 167 175 180 680
Tencent 118 149 303 268 75 82 88 82 327 82 92 100 95 369
ByteDance 358 550 770 1,306 360 420 430 440 1,650 450 480 520 490 1,940
Total Top 8 7,448 7,473 8,594 12,858 3,680 4,057 4,214 4,202 16,153 4,623 4,853 5,068 4,997 19,541
%YoY 13.5% 0.3% 15.0% 49.6% 28.2% 31.7% 25.0% 18.8% 25.6% 25.6% 19.6% 20.3% 18.9% 21.0%
%QoQ 4.1% 10.2% 3.9% -0.3% 10.0% 5.0% 4.4% -1.4%
Others 2,468 2,410 2,901 1,879 787 839 889 908 3,423 922 999 1,021 977 3,919
Total hyperscale 9,915 9,883 11,494 14,737 4,467 4,896 5,103 5,110 19,576 5,545 5,852 6,089 5,974 23,460
%YoY 12.4% -0.3% 16.3% 28.2% 38.8% 51.2% 26.5% 20.3% 32.8% 24.1% 19.5% 19.3% 16.9% 19.8%
%QoQ 5.2% 9.6% 4.2% 0.1% 8.5% 5.5% 4.0% -1.9%
YoY (%)
Alphabet 24.0% 4.4% 15.0% 48.0% 51.8% 6.8% 26.9% 34.1% 27.3% 35.8% 20.0% 31.0% 17.2% 25.5%
AWS 24.5% -4.7% 6.8% 35.6% 40.0% 63.4% 20.0% 2.3% 27.0% 22.3% 22.9% 22.5% 24.0% 23.0%
Microsoft -2.9% 20.6% 15.3% 67.4% 17.9% 29.3% 20.4% 35.9% 25.7% 25.0% 21.1% 20.5% 18.3% 21.0%
Meta 20.7% -7.5% 8.0% 55.8% 23.0% 21.3% 23.9% 22.4% 22.6% 26.3% 18.5% 13.6% 20.0% 19.4%
Baidu -34.0% -1.6% -47.9% -16.5% 44.8% 42.5% 3.4% 68.6% 34.5% 30.0% 40.0% 18.2% 20.0% 26.8%
Alibaba -10.6% -50.2% 62.5% 49.6% 81.9% 10.3% 41.3% 13.8% 30.5% 17.0% 15.2% 12.9% 12.5% 14.3%
Tencent -56.1% 25.9% 103.3% -11.6% 2.3% 42.6% 103.2% -12.2% 22.2% 9.3% 12.2% 13.6% 15.9% 12.8%
ByteDance 60.6% 53.8% 39.9% 69.7% 4.0% 63.3% 32.9% 16.0% 26.3% 25.0% 14.3% 20.9% 11.4% 17.6%

Source: Dell'Oro Group, company data, UBS estimates

Figure 41: UBS NAND Flash supply/demand summary

Q125 Q225 Q325 Q425 2025 Q126 Q226 Q326E Q426E 2026E Q127E Q227E Q327E Q427E 2027E
Revenues ($ mil) 12,302 14,726 16,969 21,320 65,317 39,006 70,368 89,070 102,157 300,602 109,320 118,629 129,841 134,658 492,447
%QoQ -20.1% 19.7% 15.2% 25.6% 83.0% 80.4% 26.6% 14.7% 7.0% 8.5% 9.5% 3.7%
%YoY -1.0% -1.1% 4.9% 38.5% 10.9% 217.1% 377.8% 424.9% 379.2% 360.2% 180.3% 68.6% 45.8% 31.8% 63.8%
Supply (Shipments Based) (M 1GB) 201,828 247,795 271,936 273,324 994,882 270,305 288,547 304,362 323,223 1,186,438 335,811 350,391 372,338 386,153 1,444,692
%QoQ -6.0% 22.8% 9.7% 0.5% -1.1% 6.7% 5.5% 6.2% 3.9% 4.3% 6.3% 3.7%
%YoY -6.3% 15.1% 25.6% 27.3% 15.4% 33.9% 16.4% 11.9% 18.3% 19.3% 24.2% 21.4% 22.3% 19.5% 21.8%
Demand (End Consumption) (M 1GB) 235,552 242,791 280,969 321,309 1,080,621 301,290 309,481 337,580 378,354 1,326,704 369,711 389,868 430,103 485,995 1,675,677
%QoQ -8.1% 3.1% 15.7% 14.4% -6.2% 2.7% 9.1% 12.1% -2.3% 5.5% 10.3% 13.0%
%YoY 11.4% 13.0% 20.1% 25.4% 17.9% 27.9% 27.5% 20.1% 17.8% 22.8% 22.7% 26.0% 27.4% 28.4% 26.3%
Inventory adjustment -39,600 3,700 -6,200 -33,500 -75,600 25,000 22,000 -20,000 -50,000 -23,000 -31,000 -36,000 -55,000 -100,000 -222,000
Inventory Adj. Demand (M 1GB) 195,952 246,491 274,769 287,809 1,005,021 326,290 331,481 317,580 328,354 1,303,704 338,711 353,868 375,103 385,995 1,453,677
%QoQ -8.0% 25.8% 11.5% 4.7% 13.4% 1.6% -4.2% 3.4% 3.2% 4.5% 6.0% 2.9%
%YoY -14.3% 9.9% 24.6% 35.1% 13.4% 66.5% 34.5% 15.6% 14.1% 29.7% 3.8% 6.8% 18.1% 17.6% 11.5%
Wafer out (k wpm, 12" equi.) 1,418 1,288 1,268 1,352 1,331 1,366 1,333 1,338 1,351 1,347 1,331 1,307 1,303 1,299 1,310
%QoQ -0.4% -9.2% -1.5% 6.6% 1.1% -2.5% 0.4% 1.0% -1.5% -1.8% -0.3% -0.3%
%YoY 23.7% 2.5% -5.8% -5.1% 2.9% -3.6% 3.5% 5.5% -0.1% 1.2% -2.6% -2.0% -2.6% -3.9% -2.8%
%Sufficiency Ratio 3.0% 0.5% -1.0% -5.0% -1.0% -17.2% -13.0% -4.2% -1.6% -9.0% -0.9% -1.0% -0.7% 0.0% -0.6%
NAND ASP ($/1GB) 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.08 0.07 0.14 0.24 0.29 0.32 0.25 0.33 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.34
%QoQ -15.0% -2.5% 5.0% 25.0% 85.0% 69.0% 20.0% 8.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0%
%YoY 5.8% -14.1% -16.5% 8.8% -3.9% 136.7% 310.4% 369.0% 305.2% 285.9% 125.6% 38.8% 19.2% 10.3% 34.5%

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 42: NAND Flash vendors' market share in bit shipments

Q125 Q225 Q325 Q425 2025 Q126 Q226 Q326E Q426E 2026E Q127E Q227E Q327E Q427E 2027E
Samsung 31.0% 31.8% 31.8% 28.5% 30.7% 31.0% 29.6% 29.5% 31.4% 30.4% 30.0% 30.5% 30.0% 29.4% 30.0%
Kioxia 15.3% 12.5% 15.5% 16.2% 14.9% 14.7% 14.2% 14.8% 14.9% 14.7% 15.7% 14.3% 14.2% 14.3% 14.6%
SanDisk 13.2% 11.2% 11.7% 12.0% 12.0% 11.6% 12.7% 12.6% 10.7% 11.9% 10.8% 11.4% 12.3% 12.7% 11.8%
SK Hynix 12.8% 18.2% 15.7% 17.1% 16.1% 15.5% 16.7% 16.3% 16.3% 16.2% 16.0% 16.3% 16.3% 16.1% 16.2%
Micron 14.1% 14.3% 12.6% 13.1% 13.5% 13.7% 13.5% 13.6% 13.6% 13.6% 13.4% 13.3% 12.9% 12.8% 13.1%
YMTC 12.5% 11.3% 11.9% 12.2% 12.0% 12.7% 12.5% 12.5% 12.4% 12.5% 13.3% 13.6% 13.7% 14.0% 13.7%
Total Bit Supply 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Source: Gartner, company data, UBS estimates

Figure 43: NAND Flash bit shipments QoQ and YoY growth

Q125 QoQ Q225 QoQ Q325 QoQ Q425 QoQ 2025 YoY Q126 QoQ Q226 QoQ Q327E QoQ Q428E QoQ 2026E YoY Q127E QoQ Q227E QoQ Q327E QoQ Q427E QoQ 2027E YoY
Samsung -10.0% 25.9% 10.0% -10.0% 3.0% 7.5% 2.0% 5.0% 13.2% 18.0% -0.8% 5.9% 4.7% 1.8% 20.0%
Kioxia -10.0% 0.0% 36.0% 5.0% 13.5% -10.0% 3.0% 10.0% 7.0% 17.4% 9.6% -5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 21.4%
SanDisk -6.0% 4.0% 15.0% 3.0% 17.7% -5.0% 17.0% 5.0% -10.0% 18.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 7.0% 21.6%
SK Hynix -16.9% 73.6% -5.0% 9.6% 11.8% -10.4% 15.0% 2.7% 6.5% 20.0% 1.7% 6.5% 6.0% 2.5% 21.3%
Micron 3.5% 24.3% -3.3% 5.0% 25.6% 3.4% 5.0% 6.0% 6.0% 20.4% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.4% 17.2%
YMTC 15.7% 10.6% 15.5% 3.5% 57.3% 2.3% 5.5% 5.3% 5.2% 24.5% 12.0% 6.2% 7.6% 5.5% 33.1%
Total Bit Supply -6.0% 22.8% 9.7% 0.5% 15.4% -1.1% 6.7% 5.5% 6.2% 19.3% 3.9% 4.3% 6.3% 3.7% 21.8%

Source: Gartner, company data, UBS estimates

Figure 44: NAND Flash vendors wafers out (k wpm, 12" equivalent)

Q125 Q225 Q325 Q425 2025 Q126 Q226 Q326E Q426E 2026E Q127E Q227E Q327E Q427E 2027E
Samsung 471 449 423 409 438 412 405 400 400 404 398 393 388 383 390
Kioxia / SanDisk 470 400 400 480 437 480 460 460 450 463 420 400 400 400 405
SK Hynix 216 189 185 186 194 185 178 183 201 186 208 204 200 196 202
Micron 132 111 111 117 118 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130 130
YMTC 130 140 150 160 145 160 160 165 170 164 175 180 185 190 183
Total 1,418 1,288 1,268 1,352 1,331 1,366 1,333 1,338 1,351 1,347 1,331 1,307 1,303 1,299 1,310
%YoY 23.7% 2.5% -5.8% -5.1% 2.9% -3.6% 3.5% 5.5% -0.1% 1.2% -2.6% -2.0% -2.6% -3.9% -2.8%

Source: Gartner, company data, UBS estimates

Figure 45: NAND Flash bit demand growth by application

Q125 QoQ Q225 QoQ Q325 QoQ Q425 QoQ 2025 YoY Q126 QoQ Q226 QoQ Q327E QoQ Q428E QoQ 2026E YoY Q127E QoQ Q227E QoQ Q327E QoQ Q427E QoQ 2027E YoY
Total Embedded -8.3% 3.1% 16.1% 14.8% 18.5% -6.2% 2.8% 9.3% 12.4% 23.6% -2.2% 5.6% 10.5% 13.3% 27.2%
Smartphones -11.3% -6.3% 17.3% 26.6% 16.9% -21.7% -6.4% 2.4% 30.6% 2.1% -16.7% -4.6% 6.3% 32.3% 8.4%
iPhones -29.0% -7.7% 24.8% 69.7% 28.1% -33.6% -5.0% -1.6% 70.4% 15.5% -32.8% -5.0% 1.3% 73.4% 9.5%
Samsung 42.2% -13.4% 10.1% -8.2% 15.0% 16.2% -3.9% 7.6% -12.2% 7.4% 30.6% -14.1% 7.9% -11.0% 9.7%
Non- iPhone/Samsung -5.6% -0.9% 13.2% -5.0% 5.5% -15.1% -10.2% 5.5% -1.6% -18.2% -2.7% 3.9% 13.7% -1.5% 5.3%
Tablet PCs -21.6% 10.0% 9.5% 17.2% 6.4% -20.2% 12.2% 4.5% 17.0% 11.3% -24.7% 13.1% 10.6% 14.3% 6.6%
SSD-Total -6.9% 7.5% 18.9% 11.2% 21.8% 1.4% 5.5% 12.9% 7.3% 36.7% 5.2% 8.9% 12.7% 9.6% 38.6%
SSD (notebooks) -13.7% 9.3% 15.3% -1.3% 9.0% -14.1% -0.3% 2.4% 0.0% -6.2% -10.2% 9.4% 15.7% 6.7% 6.9%
SSD (servers) -4.0% 9.4% 36.0% 22.6% 45.1% 4.0% 7.4% 18.5% 8.1% 65.7% 10.7% 10.5% 14.0% 10.2% 53.3%
SSD (storage) 10.5% 7.9% 8.0% 10.1% 47.9% 15.2% 11.4% 10.7% 10.2% 53.6% 9.7% 9.3% 8.8% 8.5% 44.8%
SSD (others) -14.6% 1.4% -0.5% 0.2% -12.8% 1.3% -0.5% 8.8% 8.8% 8.0% -6.0% 0.2% 9.4% 12.2% 12.5%
Total Flash cards -0.4% 1.6% 2.2% -3.4% -0.4% -5.4% -2.8% -1.6% -2.9% -9.8% -8.1% -6.8% -4.4% -10.8% -20.0%
Mobile Phones - Flash cards -6.3% -1.5% 5.3% -1.6% -0.8% -3.7% -6.8% 1.5% -7.4% -8.8% 7.1% -0.3% 6.7% -6.1% 1.4%
Total Bit Demand -8.1% 3.1% 15.7% 14.4% 17.9% -6.2% 2.7% 9.1% 12.1% 22.8% -2.3% 5.5% 10.3% 13.0% 26.3%

Source: Gartner, company data, UBS estimates

Figure 46: NAND Flash content assumptions (GB/unit) by application

Q125 Q225 Q325 Q425 2025 Q126 Q226 Q326E Q426E 2026E Q127E Q227E Q327E Q427E 2027E
Smartphones - Blended 198 193 216 251 216 223 223 227 276 238 243 235 238 293 253
%YoY 14% 14% 11% 22% 15% 12% 16% 5% 10% 10% 9% 5% 5% 6% 6%
iPhones 517 512 573 579 538 576 581 586 594 572 599 604 627 653 610
Samsung 225 203 213 198 210 232 206 217 210 216 247 220 230 222 230
Non- iPhone/Samsung 127 127 132 137 131 127 132 137 142 134 132 137 142 146 139
SSD - Notebook PCs 643 639 674 676 659 663 658 686 706 678 695 681 710 734 706
%YoY 2% 3% 2% 0% 2% 3% 3% 2% 4% 3% 5% 3% 4% 4% 4%
SSD - Servers 3,433 3,775 4,117 4,780 4,083 4,975 5,170 5,366 5,561 5,286 5,951 6,342 6,733 7,123 6,563
%YoY 12% 23% 34% 55% 33% 45% 37% 30% 16% 29% 20% 23% 25% 28% 24%
SSD - Storage 12,383 13,359 14,434 15,885 14,015 16,862 17,838 18,815 19,791 18,386 20,768 21,744 22,721 23,697 22,282
%YoY 57% 47% 41% 39% 45% 36% 34% 30% 25% 31% 23% 22% 21% 20% 21%

Source: Gartner, company data, UBS estimates

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

Investing in the technology sector involves a high degree of risk. Rapid technological changes, increasing competition and exposure to macroeconomic cycles are among the many risks faced by investors in technology stocks. Moreover, it is extremely difficult to project the financial results of tech companies since their operating models are highly volatile and unpredictable. Finally, valuing technology stocks can prove challenging, as neither traditional nor non-traditional valuation measures have provided much insight into how these stocks trade.

Required Disclosures

This document has been prepared by UBS Securities Pte. Ltd., an affiliate of UBS AG. UBS AG, its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates, including former Credit Suisse AG and its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as "UBS".

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