報告_MS_NVDA供應鏈影響_20260827

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M August 27, 2026 04:54 PM GMT

Taiwan - Technology | Asia Pacific

Taiwan Tech's exposure to Nvidia and results read-across

We think Nvidia's recent guidance for 70% revenue growth in CY27 should be positive for members of Taiwan's supply chain with higher related revenue exposure.

Please see Joe Moore's take on Nvidia's recent results: NVIDIA very positive 2027 commentary (27 Aug 2026). Among other highlights, 70%+ CY27 revenue growth guidance is a remarkable figure, and to the extent possible we would expect Nvidia to continue to knock down barriers to higher growth. Management framed the demand as "much greater" than that 70% level. That echoes our previous 2027 CoWoS forecast in Asia-Pacific Technology: AI Supply Chain: Preliminary 2027 TSMC CoWoS Allocation (23 Jun 2026): Nvidia uses TSMC's CoWoS-L as the single source for its AI GPU products (e.g., Blackwell and Rubin). Its 2027 CoWoS-L consumption could reach ~910k, up ~40% Y/Y. Strong CoWoS-R bookings by Nvidia also suggest very strong Vera CPU shipments (almost doubling). Factoring in the chip price hike starting in 1Q next year, 70%+ revenue growth looks consistent with TSMC CoWoS implied chip shipments.

Is that a strong catalyst for Nvidia's supply chain in Taiwan? We think yes: We cite the strong growth outlook, ongoing tightness, and cheap valuation:

• We still think TSMC's wafer front-end (3nm) and ABF substrate supply remain major constraints, as Nvidia goes through HBM spec optimization (see Asia-Pacific Technology: AI Supply Chain: GPU Architecture Optimization Given Memory Shortage and Supernode Challenge (10 Aug 2026) ). We expect TSMC to succeed with a wafer price hike in 2027 - we view a 5%-10% hike as likely.
• KYEC's 3Q26 revenue suffered from wafer constraints. With Rubin ramping on schedule, we expect strong sequential growth in 4Q26 for KYEC's GPU and CPU revenue.
• See Exhibit 2 for Nvidia revenue exposure across semiconductor and tech hardware. Most stocks' 2027e PEG still screens below 0.7 on average.

Idea

Exhibit 1 : Revenue exposure related to Nvidia

Source: Company Data, Morgan Stanley Research estimates

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For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.

+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

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Analysis of Nvidia's supply chain

Exhibit 2: Revenue exposure related to Nvidia

Source: Company Data, Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Exhibit 3: Global CoWoS demand breakdown: 2026e vs. 2027e

Global CoWoS capacity demand by key customer

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates; note: estimates are complied using our supply chain checks.

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Exhibit 4: Global CoWoS demand Y/Y growth profile

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates; note: estimates are complied using our supply chain checks

Exhibit 5: Global CoWoS capacity expansion by year-end and by vendor

Exhibit 6: Global CoWoS consumption, by customer

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates; note: estimates are compiled using our supply chain checks

Aligning Blackwell and Rubin chip shipments with HGX and rack shipments

We analyzed Blackwell chip shipments versus rack shipments in our last June AI tracker. We believe TSMC's Blackwell chip output, based on CoWoS-L capacity, aligns more closely with underlying demand as reflected in AI capex trends.

We now incorporate HGX systems (8 GPUs per server) into our chip consumption model and assume that nine HGX servers are equivalent to one NVL72 rack. We forecast 5.4mn Blackwell units in 2026, with chip supply sufficient to meet Grace Blackwell NVL72 demand by 2H26.

Our latest checks also suggest shipments of nearly 7mn Rubin and Rubin Ultra units in 2027, while total Rubin NVL72 rack shipments could reach 90k units in 2027 ( Exhibit 9 ).

All Blackwell chip "inventory" has proven to be supply-chain buffer stock and should be fully absorbed by 2026. As a result, we see little reason for concern over inventory levels. We expect Rubin to follow a similar pattern. Rubin should begin ramping up in 3Q26, with rack shipments starting in 4Q26.

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Quarterly shipment (mn units)

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Exhibit 7: (old) Blackwell chip vs. GB NVL72 rack shipments

Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Exhibit 9:

Rubin chip shipments vs. VR NVL72 rack shipments

Source: Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates

Exhibit 10: GPU/ASIC total power consumption from TSMC CoWoS shipment GPU/ASIC total power consumption (GW)

Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates

4Q27e

30

25

20

Exhibit 8: (new) Blackwell chip vs. GB NVL72 and HGX equivalent rack shipments

Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates

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AI semis - stock implications, P/E multiples, revenue exposure

Exhibit 11: P/E multiple trend of AI semis

Note: Alternative AI semis group: AMD, Alchip, Andes, Marvell, Broadcom. AI semi enablers group: TSMC, Synopsys, Cadence, ASML, BESI, Ibiden, KYEC, Advantest. Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research.

Exhibit 12: We still expect AI chip revenue to rise QoQ

Source: Company data, Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley US Research (e) estimates.

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Exhibit 13: TSMC's AI-related revenue 2024-29e CAGR could reach 60%

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates

Idea

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Key Featured Reports on the AI Supply Chain

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Disclosure Section

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