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報告_GS_全球伺服器_20261018

更新 2026-10-19
#來源/券商報告#產業/AI伺服器

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報告_GS_全球伺服器_20261018_003.png 11KB 真資料圖 Exhibit 5：AI 伺服器機櫃（NVL72）全球出貨按晶片平台，單位 k racks：NV racks 2025／2026E／2027E／2028E = 19／61／97／149，AMD racks 2026E／2027E／2028E = 2／13／15（2025 為 -）
報告_GS_全球伺服器_20261018_005.png 36KB 真資料圖 Exhibit 7：AI 伺服器機櫃（NV & AMD，NVL72）出貨市占雙環圖（外環 2028E、內環 2027E），分 Dell、SuperMicro、Other brands、Hon Hai、Quanta、Other ODM，Hon Hai 為最大扇區；中央文字「+75%／+49% YoY」，旁註 Hon Hai 預期憑研發、規模、美國與全球產能續增市占（圖上無百分比數字）
報告_GS_全球伺服器_20261018_013.png 49KB 真資料圖 Exhibit 15：全球伺服器價值 TAM（US$m）1Q21-1Q26 堆疊長條，x86 與 non-x86，疊 YoY 折線；圖內文字註明 x86 於 2025／1Q26 YoY +46%／-5%、non-x86 +191%／+109%，non-x86 占 2025 全球伺服器價值 TAM 37%、1Q26 為 50%
報告_GS_全球伺服器_20261018_014.png 55KB 真資料圖 Exhibit 16：全球伺服器價值 TAM（US$m）1Q21-1Q26 堆疊長條，Global brand／Chinese brand／ODM Direct，疊三條 YoY 折線；圖內文字註明 2025／1Q26 YoY：Global brand +31%／+103%、Chinese brand +47%／+19%、ODM Direct +133%／+2%，標示 49% 占比
報告_GS_全球伺服器_20261018_016.png 42KB 真資料圖 Exhibit 18：台灣 ODM 與品牌廠近 12 個月營收 YoY（2015-01 至 2026 年中後），兩條線：Higher AI exposure（鴻海、廣達、緯穎、英業達、緯創、神達、技嘉）末值 +38%，Lower AI exposure（仁寶、和碩、宏碁、華碩、微星）末值 +15%

原始內容

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Global Server: Raising both AI and General servers; better mix and higher memory costs drive CSP spending

We raise our global servers TAM by 31% / 45% in 2027 / 28E across general servers and AI servers to reflect the ongoing generative AI infrastructure investments and specification upgrades:

Allen Chang

+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Verena Jeng

+852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

James Schneider, Ph.D.

+1(212)357-2929 | jim.schneider@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Michael Ng, CFA

+1(212)902-8618 | michael.ng@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Katherine Murphy

+1(212)902-1151 | katherine.a.murphy@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Ronald Keung, CFA +852-2978-0856 | ronald.keung@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Gabriela Borges, CFA

+1(212)902-7839 | gabriela.borges@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Giuni Lee

+65-6889-1025 | giuni.lee@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte

Anmol Makkar

+1(212)357-1366 | anmol.makkar@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Daiki Takayama

+81(3)4587-9870 | daiki.takayama@gs.com Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.

Ting Song

+852-2978-6466 | ting.song@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Selina Zhang

+1(212)357-9979 | selina.zhang@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

  • (1) General servers: raised value by 17% / 11% in 2027 / 28E with both shipment and ASP raised. We expect general servers shipment to grow at 20% / 12% / 8% YoY in 2026-28E.
  • (2) AI servers (NVL72, powered by NV & AMD): shipment raised by 5% / 1% to 110k / 164k racks in 2027 / 28E.
  • (3) AI servers (8-GPU, powered by GPU & ASIC): shipment raised by 10% / 29% to 2.7m / 3.3m servers in 2027 / 28E. Our new AI servers shipment forecasts imply AI chip demand of 18m / 29m / 38m in 2026-28E, or a ~60% / ~50% ASIC penetration rate globally / global-tier in 2028E. We continue to see a rise across CSP capex, fabless shipment, and foundry capacity, driving an AI infrastructure upcycle.

AI servers supply chain: Buy Hon Hai / FII (ODM), Wiwynn / Wistron (ODM), Innolight (Optical module), Eoptolink (Optical module), Shengyi Tech (CCL), Victory Giant (PCB), FOCI (FAU), Largan (FAU), LandMark (Silicon photonics), VPEC (Silicon photonics), AVC / Fositek (liquid cooling), Auras (liquid cooling), King Slide (rail kits), EMC (CCL), GCE (PCB), TSMC (foundry), MPI (probe cards), WinWay (sockets), Aspeed (fabless), and Hon Precision (FT handler).

e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8

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Exhibit 1: Raising our global servers TAM by 31% / 45% in

2027 / 28E on both higher General servers and AI servers Global server value TAM revision

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Related reports:

Global Tech: PCs, smartphones, servers: Quantifying market opportunities (launching Global TAMs on Oct 3, 2023)

Global Tech: Server TAM: Introducing rack-level AI server forecasts (Oct 29, 2024)

Global Tech: Server TAM updates: AI server shipment timeframe recalibrating (Feb 9, 2025)

Global Tech: Server TAM updates: Revising down AI Training Server outlook (Mar 24, 2025)

Global Tech: ASIC AI server TAM introduced; Server TAM update and baseboard-based AI servers raised (June 28, 2025)

Global Server: 2027E estimates introduced; Raising baseboard-based AI servers with rising ASIC penetration (Sep 27, 2025)

Global Server: ASIC servers expanding; AI full racks see diversifying chip platform (Jan 4, 2026)

Global Server: Higher mix of rack-level AI servers; Introducing 2028 forecasts (Apr 17, 2026)

Global Server: Raising both AI and General servers; better mix and higher memory costs drive CSP spending (Jun 24, 2026)

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Servers: AI server rack shipments +238%/+75%/+49% YoY in 2026-28E

Global Server market opportunity
(Shipments in k units/ k racks)
Revenues by type US$ m 1Q25 64,889 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26E 172,900 4Q26E 175,105 2025 324,969 2026E 604,976 2027E 1,114,623 2028E 1,602,489 2028E 1,602,489 2028E 1,602,489
Our Bottom up method Global server revenues General servers US$ m 32,860 81,309 36,618 80,639 38,001 98,133 40,581 109,179 43,837 147,792 56,047 62,915 54,293 148,061 217,092 250,293 271,114 271,114 271,114
Global server TAM = AI server racks (NVL72) AI server training (8-GPU) (8-GPU) US$ m US$ m 5,655 19,910 10,325 29,172 12,015 24,935 27,750 25,296 37,695 22,446 46,676 35,501 49,980 49,143 59,319 55,745 49,415 193,670 99,313 156,505 37,710 598,899 203,276 62,155 237,482 237,482 237,482
General server + AI server racks AI server inferencing US$ m 6,463 1Q25 5,194 2Q25 5,688 4,505 5,201 9,568 10,862 12,079 21,850 2026E 2027E 80,948 80,948 80,948
Mix 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26E 4Q26E 2025 2028E 2028E 2028E
(NVL72) + AI server (8-GPU) Total General servers % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 40% 100% 38% 100% 36% 100% 100% 100% 36% 100% 22% 100% 17% 100% 17% 100% 17%
AI server racks (NVL72) server training (8-GPU) % % 51% 45% 13% 47% 15% 41% 28% 35% 32% 29% 31% 34% 46% 17% 32% 54% 63% 63% 63%
General server AI server inferencing % 9% 31% 36% 31% 26% 21% 24% 28% 28% 31% 26% 18% 15% 15% 15%
General server shipments = AI (8-GPU) Revenues YoY % 10% 1Q25 6% 2Q25 7% 3Q25 5% 4Q25 5% 1Q26 6% 2Q26 6% 3Q26E 7% 4Q26E 7% 6% 2025 2026E 86% 6% 2027E 5% 2028E 5% 2028E 5% 2028E
shipments of Top 6 server brands Total servers % 68% 82% 114% 78% 84% 44% 44% 44%
+ ODM direct + others General server racks (NVL72) % % 33% 567% 53% 352% 66% 34% 47% 15% 8% 8% 8%
General server revenues = AI AI server training (8-GPU) % 13% 22% 316% 114% 95% 247% 58% 209% 30% 69% 17% 69% 17% 69% 17%
AI server inferencing (8-GPU) % 97% 30%
shipments of each company x ASP Revenues QoQ 1Q25 -20% 84% 91% 168% 4Q26E 73% 65%
of each company Total 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26E 1% 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
% 25% -1% 22% 11% 35% 17%
General servers AI server racks (NVL72) % 11% 4% 7% 8% 28% 12% -14% 19%
General servers revenues mix AI server training (8-GPU) % 83% 16% 131% 36% 24% 7%
% 47% -15% 1% -11% 58% 38% 1%
46% AI server inferencing (8-GPU) % Units 1Q25 -20% 2Q25 10% 3Q25 -21% 4Q25 15% 1Q26 84% 2Q26 14% 3Q26E 11% 4Q26E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
36% Shipments by type Global server shipments k units 3,619 3,901 3,648 3,966 4,585 5,122 4,550 15,134 18,107 20,321 21,917 21,917 21,917
22% General servers AI server racks (NVL72) k racks 2 9 3,851 16 17 18 19 110 164 164 164
17% k units 154 3 4 13 240 329 337 660 63 1,082 1,533 1,858 1,858 1,858
AI server training (8-GPU) 141 162 170 174 176 81 146 213 208 417 648 1,122 1,447 1,447 1,447
AI server inferencing (8-GPU) k units 91 111 3Q25 74 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26E 4Q26E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 2028E 2028E
Shipments YoY General servers % 1Q25 2Q25 6% 18% 40% 15% 20% 12% 8%
2025 2026E 2027E 2028E AI server racks (NVL72) AI server training (8-GPU) % 567% 352% 318% 94% 94% 238% 64% 42% 75% 75% 49% 21%
AI server AI server inferencing (8-GPU) % % 14% -43% 48% 60% 94% 93% 180% 4Q26E 55% 73% 29%
AI server shipments = shipments Shipments QoQ General servers 1Q25 2Q25 8% 3Q25 -6% 4Q25 9% 1Q26 -3% 2Q26 19% 3Q26E 12% -11% 2025 2026E 2027E 2027E 2028E
of Top 6 server brands + ODM AI server racks (NVL72) % 83% 16% 131% 36% 24% 8% 7%
direct + %
others AI server training (8-GPU) AI server inferencing % 5% 5% 3% 1% 36% 38% 2%
AI server revenue = shipments x (8-GPU) Shipments by vendor % 1Q25 -36% 2Q25 21% 3Q25 -33% 4Q25 9% 1Q26 80% 2Q26 46% 3Q26E -2% 4Q26E 4,550 2025 15,134 2026E 18,107 2027E 20,321 2028E 21,917 2028E 21,917 2028E 21,917
AI server racks revenues mix ASP General server shipments Dell k units k units 3,619 334 3,901 307 3,648 299 3,966 395 3,851 414 4,585 446 5,122 448 500 1,335 1,808 2,050 2,255 2,255 2,255
HP k units 165 161 182 161 154 169 191 669 675 703 717 717 717
Super Micro k units 156 161 173 134 130 165 135 135 142 592 578 557 579 579 579
54% 63% Lenovo k units 174 187 213 263 226 280 287 289 837 1,083 1,137 1,194 1,194 1,194
Gigabyte k units 24 41 27 30 34 44 53 31 123 162 187 196 196 196
32% Quanta - ODM direct k units 576 650 483 541 639 747 627 703 2,249 2,717 2,826 2,882 2,882 2,882
17% Hon Hai- ODM direct k units 207 256 221 211 218 255 229 242 895 944 971 971 971 971
Wiwynn- ODM direct k units 455 527 596 588 638 895 1,353 823 2,166 3,709 4,724 5,432 5,432 5,432
Others k units 1,527 1,599 1,516 1,627 1,356 1,628 1,820 1,628 6,269 6,432 7,168 7,691 7,168 7,691 7,168 7,691 7,168 7,691
2025 2026E 2027E 2028E AI server - 8-GPU k units 296 9 253 33 280 28 248 44 257 385 83 543 94 545 110 1,077 113 1,730 364 2,655 437 3,305 491 3,305 491
Dell HP k units k units 2 2 1 77 3 6 6 5 9 21 12 12 12 12
AI server (8-GPU) revenues 37% Super k units 10 4 13 12 22 9 8 16 14 57 48 42 39 39 39
mix 32% 24% 20% Micro Lenovo k units 16 10 11 13 34 19 27 27 50 107 18 196 294 294 294
Gigabyte k units 2 19 4 2 2 3 5 5 6 10 73 123 22 156 25 25 25
Quanta - ODM direct Hai- ODM direct k units k units 51 20 24 56 10 20 10 20 28 91 46 50 39 187 168 211 207 166 200 166 200 166 200
Hon Wiwynn- ODM direct k units 21 60 41 52 54 45 45 52 50 66 200 287 362 362 362
Others k units 166 83 56 100 247 228 410 19 1,716 1,716 1,716
AI server - full racks Dell k racks 2 68 93 4 9 13 16 17 18 3 631 63 13 1,302 110 15 164 18 164 18 164 18
HP ** k racks 0 3 1 3 3 4 4 2 2 2 2
2025 2026E 2027E 2028E Super Micro k racks 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 3 1 15 15 15
Lenovo k racks 0 - 0 0 2 2 2 3 3 0 - 13 2 3 3 3
Gigabyte Quanta - ODM direct k racks k racks - - - - 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 1
Hon Hai- ODM direct k racks k racks 1 0 1 1 1 4 3 5 0 5 2 1 11 13 59
Wiwynn- ODM direct 0 6 7 7 4 7 17 101 17 101 17 101
Others k racks k racks 1 - 2 - - - - - 1 25 1 2 5 2 5 2 5 2
- 0 0 0 - 0 0
0 1 - 1

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 2: ASIC penetration rate up to ~60% / ~50% in 2028E globally / global-tier 1 hyperscalers

AI server shipment implied AI chips and ASIC penetration rate

2026E 2027E 2028E
NEW
AI server shipment (k units)
Rack-level (NVL72) 63 110 164
8-GPU 1,730 2,655 3,305
Implied AI chips 18,361 29,171 38,275
YoY 84% 59% 31%
ASIC penetration rate 55% 57% 58%
Global-tier 47% 48% 49%
Chinese 92% 92% 92%
CHG
AI server shipment (k units)
Rack-level (NVL72) 13% 5% 1%
8-GPU -7% 10% 29%
Implied AI chips -3% 9% 19%

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 3: Raising both our forecasts for Brand makers and ODM in 2027 / 28E

Global server value TAM revision

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

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AI servers ecosystem

Exhibit 4: AI servers ecosystem: revenues exposure to different chipset platforms / customers

Company name Ticker Analyst Rev exposures % to selected supply chain (2026E) - Nvidia GPU Rev exposures % to selected supply chain (2026E) - AMD GPU Rev exposures % to selected supply chain (2026E) - Google TPU Rev exposures % to selected supply chain (2026E) - Amazon Trainium Rev exposures % to selected supply chain (2026E) - Meta MTIA Rev exposures % to selected supply chain (2026E) - Chinese GPUs/ ASICs Rev exposures % to selected supply chain (2026E) - Oracle Rev exposures % to selected supply chain (2026E) - Company product focus
ODM
Hon Hai 2317.TW Allen Chang 30-35% 5-10% 5-10% 0% 0% <5% <10% AI server ODM
Inspur 000977.SZ Allen Chang <10% <10% 0% 0% 0% 60-65% 0% AI server brand/ ODM
Ruijie Networks 301165.SZ Allen Chang 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 55-60% 0% Data center switch
Wiwynn 6669.TW Allen Chang 5-10% 5-10% <5% 25-35% <5% 0% 10-20% AI server ODM
Quanta 2382.TW Allen Chang 60-70% <5% <5% 0% <5% 0% <5% AI server ODM
Huaqin Technology 603296.SS Verena Jeng <10% <5% 0% 0% 0% 30-35% 0% AI server ODM, Data center switch ODM
FII 601138.SS Verena Jeng 45-50% <10% <10% 0% 0% <10% 10-20% AI server ODM
Mitac 3706.TW Verena Jeng <5% 5-10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 60-65% Data center switch ODM, AI server ODM
Wistron 3231.TW Verena Jeng 45-55% <5% 0% 5-15% <5% <5% 5-10% AI server ODM
Inventec 2356.TW Verena Jeng 15-20% <5% <5% 0% 0% 0% 0% AI server ODM
UNIS 000938.SZ Verena Jeng <5% <5% 0% 0% 0% 40-50% 0% AI server brand/ ODM
Lenovo 0992.HK Verena Jeng <10% <10% 0% 0% 0% <10% 0% AI server brand/ ODM
Brands
Asus 2357.TW Allen Chang 25-35% <10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% AI server brand
Gigabyte 2376.TW Allen Chang 65-75% <10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% AI server brand
ZTE 000063.SZ/ 0763.HK Allen Chang 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% <10% 0% AI server brand
Components
AVC 3017.TW Allen Chang 40-50% <10% <5% 15-20% 5-10% <5% <5% Liquid cooling components, chassis
Auras 3324.TWO Verena Jeng 40-50% <10% <10% <20% <10% 0% <10% Coldplate, CDU, manifold, QD
Chenbro 8210.TW Verena Jeng 30-35% <5% 0% 30-35% 0% 10-15% <10% Chassis
Fositek 6805.TW Verena Jeng 40-50% <5% <5% 5-10% <5% <5% <5% QD, rail kits
King Slide 2059.TW Verena Jeng 50-55% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% <10% Rial kits
Delta Electronics 2308.TW Chao Wang 20-25% <5% <10% <10% <5% 0% <5% PSU & DC/DC converter & CDU
PCB/ CCL
Shennan Circuits 002916.SZ Ting Song <5% 5-10% 0% 0% 0% 20-25% 0% PCB
NYPCB 8046.TW Chao Wang 0% 0% <1% <1% <1% <1% 0% ABF substrate
Elite Material 2383.TW Chao Wang 10-15% <5% 15-20% 10-15% 5-10% <1% <1% CCL
GCE 2368.TW Chao Wang <5% <5% 10-15% 30-35% 20-25% 0% 0% PCB
TUC 6274.TWO Chao Wang <5% <5% 5-10% 10-15% <5% <1% 0% CCL
ZDT 4958.TW Chao Wang <5% 0% <5% <5% 0% <5% 0% PCB & ABF substrates
Kinsus 3189.TW Chao Wang <5% <1% <1% 0% 0% 0% 0% ABF substrates
Unimicron 3037.TW Chao Wang 5-10% <5% 5-10% <5% <5% 0% 0% ABF substrate / HDI
Optical modules, Lasers
Innolight 300308.SZ Verena Jeng 30-35% <5% 25-35% 10-15% 10-15% <5% <10% Optical transceivers
Eoptolink 300502.SZ Ting Song 30-35% <5% 10-15% 25-30% 5-10% <5% 0% Optical transceiver
LandMark 3081.TWO Allen Chang 30-35% <5% 30-35% 10-15% 10-15% <5% <10% InP laser diode/ EPI wafer
YJ Semi 688498.SS Verena Jeng 30-35% <5% 25-35% 10-15% 10-15% <5% <10% InP laser diode/ EPI wafer
VPEC 2455.TW Verena Jeng 15-20% <5% 10-15% <5% <5% <5% <5% InP EPI wafer

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

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Server TAM estimate revisions

AI server racks: We raise our forecast for AI server racks powered by NVIDIA to 61k / 97k / 149k in 2026 - 28E (vs. 50k / 92k / 148k previously), reflecting the increase in our forecasts for brand makers (Dell, SuperMicro, HP), leading to higher US CSP capex by 4% / 17% / 22% in 2026-28E, and NVIDIA chipset shipments (raised by 9% / 15% in 2027 / 28E), showing the ongoing upcycle of AI infrastructure. Overall, we expect the AI server rack global value TAM to grow at 163% CAGR in 2025-28E to US$1tn, or 63% of the global server value TAM by 2028E. By vendor, we continue to expect global leading CSPs to be the major customers, with leading ODM direct players as the major suppliers. We expect Hon Hai / FII to maintain the leading market position among ODMs and with continuous specification upgrade driving its global market share expansion.

Exhibit 5: AI server racks global shipment by chipset platforms

報告_GS_全球伺服器_20261018_003

Exhibit 6: AI server rack shipments by ODM / OEMs

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 7: AI server racks global shipment market share by vendors

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 8: GPU for rack-level (72-GPU) vs for server-level (8-GPU)

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

AI servers: We raise AI server (8-GPU) equivalent shipment by 10% / 29% in 2027-28E to 2.7m / 3.3m in 2027-28E, mainly driven by rising ASIC-based AI server demand. The custom-design provides ASIC-based AI servers optimized for AI computation with better efficiency, such as lower latency, or memory savings via reduced expensive read/write cycles. We continue to see new generation ASICs launched by global leading CSPs, supporting AI server growth: we expect the AI servers (8-GPU) global value TAM to grow e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8

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at 38% CAGR in 2025-28E to US$318bn, or 20% of global server value TAM by 2028E. We reduce 2026E shipment by 7% to 1.7m, reflecting a shift toward higher density AI server racks driven by leading US CSPs.

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

General servers: We raise general server revenue by 15% / 13% / 11% in 2026-28E driven by high memory costs and ongoing specification upgrades driving AI workloads. Intel launched its Intel Xeon 6+ processors at Computex 2026 (link) to facilitate Agentic AI workloads, positioning: CPU servers as the control plane, driving system-level performance and efficiency under rising agentic AI workloads, while supporting data movement and sustained inferencing. Intel presented Xeon 7 Diamond Rapids in Aug 2026 (link), with architectures for Agentic AI and Enterprise scale workloads, empowering efficient inference and edge computing. AMD has begun production ramp of its 6th Gen AMD EPYC CPUs (Venice) in May (link), which powers agentic AI and diverse workloads - running the agents, AI host nodes, and general purposes that turns intelligence into action with optimized TCO (total cost of ownership). We expect general servers' global value TAM to grow at 22% CAGR in 2025-28E to US$271bn, or 17% of global server value TAM by 2028E.

Exhibit 11: General server shipment vs. ASP YoY in 2026-28E

Exhibit 12: x86 server shipment vs. ASP YoY in 2021-25A and 1Q26A

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Source: IDC

CSP capex: Regarding customer spending, our US internet team forecasts that leading US cloud service providers (CSPs) in aggregate will grow their capex budgets by 84%/ 52%/ 13% YoY in 2026-28E, with our estimates being raised by 4% / 17% / 22% in 2026-28E to US$1,397bn by 2028E. Within the China internet space, we expect leading e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8

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Chinese cloud platforms to grow capex by 105%/ 21%/ 14% YoY in 2026-28E, with our estimates being raised by 14% / 15% / 11% in 2026-28E. The strong increase in CSP capex reflects the high memory costs and growing demand on AI workloads. In terms of capex structure, we estimate chipsets (GPU, ASIC, CPU) remain the major contributors, along with memory (HBM), and followed by networking and other components (e.g. cooling, power, chassis, rail kits, etc.). Compared to global CSPs, we estimate China CSP spending on chipsets would be more diversified across GPU and ASICs considering various local fabless suppliers and customers' varying demand on AI scenarios / tasks. Read more: Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Oracle, Baba, Tencent, Baidu.

Key highlights on the recent Maia 300 announcement from MSFT: (1) Microsoft to expand its Azure Maia system to multi-gigawatt deployments, making Maia the primary inference system for Microsoft products and services, and (2) Microsoft plans to have multi-gigawatt Maia deployment beginning in 2027, with reports indicating a potential plan to deploy >1M Maia 300 chips in 2027 (Microsoft is covered by Gabriela Borges).

Exhibit 13: US CSP Capex trend

Exhibit 14: China CSP capex trend

Data include Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet and Oracle. For Microsoft, we use capex incl. financial lease. In FY24, 50% of the capex of Microsoft was spent on land and 50% on AI/Cloud.

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Data include Bytedance, Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu. We calculate Bytedance's (private) relevant operating metrics by analyzing the industry and companies that our China Internet team cover, and then extrapolating them to Bytedance.

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8

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Server TAM historical trend

Exhibit 15: Global servers value TAM: x86 vs non-x86

Exhibit 16: Global server value TAM: ODM Direct vs Global brand vs Chinese brand

Source: IDC, Bloomberg

Exhibit 17: Global servers value TAM: top six market share in 2025 / 1Q26

Source: IDC, Bloomberg

Exhibit 18: Taiwan ODM and Brand makers: last 12 months revenues YoY

Source: IDC, Bloomberg

Source: TEJ

Exhibit 19: Taiwan ODM and Brand makers revenues MoM: Aug 2026 vs Sep 2026

Exhibit 20: Taiwan AI component suppliers revenues MoM: Aug 2026 vs Sep 2026

Source: TEJ

Source: TEJ

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PCs: Shipments -14% / -5%/ 0% YoY in 2026E-28E

Global PCs market opportunity

(Shipments in m units)

Our Bottom up method

Global PCs shipments =

sum of shipments by brands

Global PCs revenues =

Desktops ASP x shipments +

Notebooks ASP x shipments +

Workstations ASP x shipments

PCs shipments by region (2025) Workstations

PCs shipments growth by region Others

Western Europe YoY

Shipments by product 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Global PCs shipments (m units) 66 68 61 63 63 260 269 297 255 243 244 244
Desktops 18 72 19 79 22 81 23 18 16 17 17 72 72 84 69 62 61 61
Notebooks 46 50 54 55 47 43 44 44 181 188 8 205 178 173 176 176
Workstations YoY 2 8% 2 10% 2 11% 2 12% 2 3% 2 -15% 2 -19% 2 -22% 7 -14% 3% 8 10% 8 -14% 7 -5% 0% 0%
Desktops 10% 12% 19% 19% -2% -16% -23% -26% -16% 0% 15% -18% -10% -3% -3%
Notebooks 9% 9% 8% 10% 4% -15% -18% -20% -13% 4% 9% -13% -3% -11% 2% 2%
Workstations Mix -28% 100% 5% 100% 4% 100% 11% 100% 21% 100% 4% 100% -14% 100% -24% 100% -9% 100% 21% 100% -4% 100% -4% 100% 100% 0% 100% 0% 100%
Desktops 28% 27% 28% 29% 27% 27% 27% 27% 28% 27% 28% 27% 26% 25% 25%
Notebooks 69% 70% 69% 68% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 69% 70% 71% 72% 72%
Workstations Revenues 3% 1Q25 3% 2Q25 3% 3Q25 3% 4Q25 3% 1Q26 3% 2Q26E 3% 3Q26E 3% 4Q26E 3% 2023 3% 2024 3% 2025 3% 2026E 3% 2027E 3% 2028E 3% 2028E
by product Global PCs revenues (US$ m) 60,032 65,945 73,876 76,757 68,768 61,822 65,214 65,622 222,164 240,238 276,610 261,426 255,904 262,519 262,519
Desktops Notebooks 13,251 42,735 13,959 47,789 15,930 53,513 16,602 14,152 48,862 12,775 44,275 13,421 47,659 13,302 48,126 49,894 157,767 50,658 173,821 59,742 199,144 53,650 188,922 50,004 188,852 51,745 193,513 51,745 193,513
Workstations 4,046 4,197 4,433 55,107 5,048 5,753 4,772 4,135 4,195 14,503 15,759 17,724 18,855 17,048 17,261 17,261
YoY 15% -6% -2%
1Q25 17% 13% 3Q25 15% 15% -12% 3Q26E -15% 4Q26E -16% 2023 8% 2024 15% 2025 -5% 2027E 3% 2028E 3% 2028E
Shipments by vendor Global PCs shipments (m units) 66 2Q25 72 79 4Q25 81 1Q26 68 2Q26E 61 63 63 260 269 297 2026E 255 243 244 244
Lenovo HP 15 13 17 19 19 16 16 18 11 18 59 54 62 70 68 47 73 46 76 47 76 47
Dell Apple 10 14 9 14 9 15 11 12 9 12 9 8 12 8 37 54 39 56 39 34 31 31 31
ASUS 6 4 6 5 7 6 7 5 6 4 7 4 8 5 8 4 22 17 23 18 26 19 29 18 33 19 34 19 34 19
Samsung 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 8 8 6 7 7
Microsoft 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 8 1 7 1 1 1
LG 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Xiaomi Others 0 16 0 0 22 0 21 0 18 0 10 0 11 0 11 1 60 1 62 1 1 1 1 27 1 27
YoY 8% 18 10% 11% 12% 3% -15% -19% -22% -14% 3% 77 10% 50 32 0% 0%
Global market share Lenovo 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% -14% 100% -5% 100% 100% 31% 100% 31%
23% 20% 24% 19% 24% 23% 19% 23% 27% 29% 18% 28% 19% 23% 21% 23% 24% 27% 19% 30% 19% 19% 19%
HP Dell 14% 12% 17% 12% 13% 17% 14% 20% 14% 13% 12% 14% 20% 15% 19% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13%
Apple 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 11% 12% 13% 8% 6% 9% 7% 9% 11% 7% 14% 14% 14%
ASUS 6% 3% 6% 3% 7% 3% 6% 2% 6% 7% 3% 8% 3% 7% 3% 3% 3% 6% 3% 3% 8% 3% 8% 3% 8% 3%
Samsung Microsoft 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
LG 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Xiaomi 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Others 24% 0%
ASP 0% 0% 16% 17% 17% 23% 0% 0%
26% 2Q25 26% 27% 2023 23% 2024 26% 2025 20% 2026E 13% 2027E 11% 2028E 11% 2028E
Global PC ASP (US$) YoY AI PCs 1Q25 911 7% 1Q25 919 7% 2Q25 28% 3Q25 941 3% 3Q25 4Q25 953 2% 4Q25 1Q26 1,013 11% 1Q26 2Q26E 1,011 10% 2Q26E 3Q26E 1,031 10% 3Q26E 4Q26E 4Q26E 1,044 9% 854 -2% 2023 2024 893 5% 933 4% 2025 1,025 10% 2026E 1,055 3% 2027E 1,077 2% 2028E 1,077 2% 2028E
AI PC shipment (m units) YoY Penetration AI PC revenues (US$ m) 18 27% 20,591 23 89% 32% 26,573 68% 30 67% 39% 31,586 50% 37 71% 46% 40,062 53% 35 93% 51% 39,660 93% 36 58% 59% 40,592 53% 39 29% 62% 43,532 38% 40 9% 64% 45,044 12% 52 19% 62,898 108 109% 36% 118,811 89% 150 39% 59% 168,828 42% 175 17% 72% 194,672 15% 82% 220,737 82% 220,737
YoY Penetration 40% 52% 58% 66% 67% 69% 26% 43% 65% 76% 13% 13%
Gaming PCs 34% 7 2Q25 43% 4Q25 1Q26 7 2Q26E 3Q26E 4Q26E 2023 2025 31 2026E 26 2027E 27 84% 2028E 84% 2028E
Gaming PC shipment (m 1Q25 8 3Q25 9 8 15% 0% 6 7 -22% 6 2024 28 13% -17% 2% 28 6% 28 6%
units) YoY Penetration 9% 10% 10,531 16% 12,131 13% 11% 13,521 11% 10% 12,073 -18% 10% 11,139 11% 11,693 -25% 10% 10,964 40,518 10% 52,186 52,186
Gaming PC revenues (US$ 11% 13,219 23% -14% 10% 11% 22% 11% 48,470 6% 12% 12%
m) YoY 19% 27% 18% 20% 17% 15% 18% -8% 18% 18% -17% 17% 17% 49,401 18% 45,869 -7% 18% 19% 8% 8%
Penetration Shipments by markets Global PCs shipments (m units) 18% 1Q25 62 2Q25 67 18% 3Q25 77 4Q25 78 1Q26 66 2Q26E 59 3Q26E 62 4Q26E 61 2023 253 2024 256 2025 284 2026E 247 2027E 20% 2028E 237 20% 2028E 237
Consumer PCs 27 29 38 35 43 24 42 26 33 31 30 31 30 118 135 118 137 127 157 111 136 236 114 122 117 120 117 120
Commercial PCs 36 -12% -14% -5%
YoY Consumer PCs 35 7% 41 -12% -22% -12% -15% 1% 0% 11% 3%
Commercial 6% 13% 16% 6% -12% -11% -20% -12% -26% -30% -13% -13% -12% 0% 3% 0% 3%
PCs 4% 9% 8% 7% 100% 100% 100% 7%
Mix Consumer PCs 8% 100% 6% 100% 18% 100% 24% 100% 20% 100% 43% 51% 50% 100% 47% 2% 100% 14% 100% 45% -13% 100% -11% 100% -2% 49% -2% 49%
Commercial PCs 43% 57% 44% 56% 2Q25 47% 53% 45% 55% 4Q25 36% 64% 57% 2Q26E 49% 3Q26E 50% 4Q26E 53% 2023 46% 54% 2024 55% 2025 45% 55% 2026E 48% 52% 2027E 100% 51% 100% 51%
Shipments by region Asia/Pacific (ex. Japan) 1Q25 9 10 3Q25 13 10 12 1Q26 9 8 9 12 9 10 42 41 40 40 43 42 38 2028E 40 2028E 40
China 9 10 6 4 9 4 10 5 14 20 38 19 39 19 39 19
Japan 5 5 11 5 12
USA 18 15 15 5 15 64 66 38 19 63 39 46 65 65
Western 16 12 17 13 17 14 11 10 15 12 13 44 45 68 49 61 46
Europe Rest of World YoY 11 12 13 14 19 18 11 9 9 -12% 50 51 58 46 30 47 26 47 26
Asia/Pacific (ex. Japan) -5% 2% -3% -5% -12% -11% -12% -13% -6% 7% 2% 2%
China 6% 12% 14% 2% 47% 16% 1% -21% -15% -10% -11% -7% 5% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Japan USA 55% 1% 0% 50% 0% -3% -3% -10% -15% -13% -8% -12% -2% 14% 3% 2% 3% 2% 3%
-3% -8% -12% -8% -13% 4% 15% 1%
Western Europe Rest of World 36% 15% 3% 0% 8% 6% 11% 9% 15% 41% 42% -10% -9% -8% -39% -55% -3% -14% -9% 1% 47% 3% 10% -11% -7% -21% 1% -34% 1% -34% -13%

Shipments by markets do not include workstations.

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

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Smartphones: Shipments -10% / +2%/ +2% YoY in 2026-28E

Global Smartphone market opportunity

(Shipments in m units) Shipments by vendor 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26E 4Q26E 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 2028E 2028E 2028E 2028E 2028E
(Revenues in m USD) Global shipments 303 297 326 338 294 276 281 54 288 71 1,164 1,237 1,264 1,140 1,162 242 1,182 247 1,182 247 1,182 247 1,182 247 1,182 247 1,182 247
Apple Samsung 59 61 48 58 60 61 85 61 61 62 56 63 64 61 234 226 233 224 252 242 242 250 255 260 260 260 260 260 260
Xiaomi 42 42 43 38 23 34 31 31 28 146 95 168 107 165 98 124 81 124 100 128 128 128 128 128 128
Our Bottom up method Transsion Lenovo 21 13 25 14 29 16 16 21 14 19 13 20 14 21 12 47 56 47 113 47 113 47 53 59 113 47 113 47
Global smartphone ZTE 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 6 7 1 12 1 12 1 12 1 12 12 12 12 12 12
shipments = sum of shipment Sony HTC 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0
by brand Asus 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Others Shipments YoY 103 1Q25 106 2Q25 114 3Q25 112 4Q25 98 1Q26 91 2Q26 95 3Q26E 93 4Q26E 409 2023 440 2024 377 2026E 381 2027E 374 2028E 374 2028E 374 2028E 374 2028E 374 2028E 374 2028E
Global smartphone revenues = sum of revenues Global 1% 2% 4% 3% -3% -7% -14% -15% -3% 6% -10% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
by brand Apple Samsung 12% 2% 6% 7% 4% 7% 9% 18% 3% 2% 15% 8% -9% 5% -17% -1% 4% -14% -1% -1% 8% 8% -4% 4% 0% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Xiaomi 3% 0% 1% -12% -19% -26% -29% -25% -5% 16% -25% 0% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Global smartphone Transsion -26% 2% -2% 2% 13% 5% -16% -1% -24% -31% -12% -8% -28% 31% 4% 13% 20% -8% 5% -18% 24% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13%
revenues = shipments x ASP Lenovo 37% 12% 6% 0% -4% 0% 0% 3% 28% 0% -10% -12% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
ZTE Sony 102% -42% 97% -22% -66% 46% -15% -21% -41% 0% -21% -21% -38% -32% 65% -38% -28% 0% -5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Smartphone shipments HTC Asus 69% -6% -50% -44% -62% -60% 141% 116% 128% 199% 27% -33% -45% -18% -13% -48% 3% 36% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
by Others -30% -1% -45% -51% -75% -36% 9% -17% -17% -7% 8% -1% 26% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
brands (2024) Shipments market share 1Q25 -3% 2Q25 0% 3Q25 -1% 4Q25 -4% 1Q26 -14% 2Q26 3Q26E 4Q26E 2023 2024 2026E -13% 1% 2027E -2% 2028E -2% 2028E -2% 2028E 2025 -2% 2028E -2% 2028E
Apple Others 35% Apple 20% 16% 18% 25% 21% 20% 19% 24% 20% 19% 20% 19% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21%
19% Samsung 20% 20% 19% 18% 21% 23% 23% 21% 19% 13% 18% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22%
Xiaomi 14% 7% 14% 8% 13% 9% 11% 7% 12% 7% 11% 7% 11% 7% 10% 7% 8% 14% 9% 11% 11% 11% 10% 11% 10% 11% 10% 11% 10% 11% 10% 11% 10%
Samsung Transsion 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 5% 13% 7% 9% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
18% Lenovo ZTE 4% 1% 5% 1% 1% 5% 1% 1% 1% 5% 1% 1% 0% 1% 8% 5% 1% 5% 1% 4% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Xiaomi 14% Transsion Lenovo 4% Sony HTC 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
9% Asus Others 0% 34% 0% 36% 0% 35% 0% 33% 0% 34% 0% 33% 0% 34% 0% 32% 0% 35% 0% 36% 0% 0% 33% 0% 32% 0% 32% 0% 32% 0% 32% 0% 32% 0% 32%
Developed markets YoY Shipments by price band Premium (Above US$600) 1Q25 29% 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 34% 1Q26 30% 2Q26 25% 3Q26E 32% 4Q26E 40% 2023 28% 2024 2026E 33% 2027E 33% 2028E 34% 2028E 34% 2028E 34% 2028E 34% 2028E 34% 2028E 34%
1% Mid-end (US$200-600) US$200) 30% 24% 33% 44% 28% 29% 27% 31% 32% 22% 18% 31% 44% 27% 29% 32% 26% 42% 26% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% 42%
-2% -1% -4% Entry level (Below Revenus by vendor Global revenues 42% 1Q25 135,893 2Q25 121,581 43% 3Q25 143,664 39% 4Q25 174,953 39% 1Q26 152,488 43% 2Q26 139,378 45% 3Q26E 155,386 42% 4Q26E 176,335 42% 2023 520,767 2024 537,641 2026E 623,588 305,038 42% 2027E 655,274 327,871 674,090 337,358 674,090 337,358 674,090 337,358 674,090 337,358 674,090 337,358 674,090 337,358
-7% 2023 2024 2025 2026E2027E Apple Samsung Xiaomi 59,982 28,658 49,179 24,514 8,727 61,539 29,064 9,411 98,704 23,470 9,078 69,436 31,337 8,546 62,294 27,435 7,943 72,151 31,133 101,157 23,667 8,540 244,908 102,181 32,183 245,107 113,572 33,874 11,093 112,765 117,727 37,793 117,727 37,793 117,727 37,793 117,727 37,793 117,727 37,793 117,727 37,793
US YoY Transsion 9,398 2,451 2,864 2,905 8,844 97,604 36,477 35,899 14,115 36,614
2,950 3,424 2,648 3,916 4,041 2,609 2,715 3,974 11,493 11,608 12,615 13,661 16,791 16,348 16,348 16,348 16,348 16,348 16,348
0% 0% Lenovo ZTE 3,187 450 3,469 466 3,725 4,193 4,860 436 1,110 1,711 15,939 17,520 1,694 17,520 1,694 17,520 1,694 17,520 1,694 17,520 1,694 17,520 1,694
-2% Sony 116 265 497 441 408 79 376 492 89 107 1,089 1,219 893 14,574 1,854 617 469 1,694 446 460 460 460 460 460 460
HTC 4 4 107 2 128 2 2 194 1 5 51 13 17 16 16 16 16 16 16
Asus 69 40 20 18 42 5 42 27 317 16
-7% -5% 2023 2024 2025 2026E Others Revenues by price 31,579 31,967 35,875 36,271 42 35,859 35,162 35,682 4Q26E 115,741 283 129,876 13 148 135,692 2025 176 140,851 170 146,358 161 145,011 161 145,011 161 145,011 161 145,011 161 145,011 161 145,011
China YoY 2027E band Premium (Above US$600) 1Q25 67% 2Q25 60% 3Q25 66% 22% 4Q25 71% 1Q26 63% 34,148 2Q26 55% 3Q26E 64% 74% 2023 65% 2024 65% 22% 2026E 64% 2027E 66% 25% 2028E 70% 2028E 70% 2028E 70% 66% 2028E 70% 2028E 70%
6% 0% Mid-end (US$200-600) Entry level (Below US$200) Shipments by region 21% 12% 27% 13% 2Q25 12% 3Q25 20% 9% 4Q25 28% 10% 34% 11% 26% 10% 3Q26E 18% 8% 4Q26E 22% 12% 13% 2024 22% 11% 2025 26% 10% 2026E 9% 21% 9% 2028E 21% 9% 2028E 21% 9% 2028E 21% 9% 2028E 21% 9% 2028E 21% 9% 2028E
0% 0% - Global shipments Developed markets 1Q25 303 297 326 67 338 1Q26 294 2Q26 276 281 64 288 78 2023 1,164 276 1,237 270 1,264 268 1,140 256 2027E 1,162 257 1,182 259 1,182 259 1,182 259 1,182 259 1,182 259 1,182 259
-5% 62 30 56 25 33 82 41 60 28 54 23 22 31 39 28 131 128 102 122 96 122 97 122 98 122 98 122 98 122 98 122 98 122 98
-9% USA Western Europe BRICs 24 23 125 24 29 135 23 115 113 120 106 479 512 151 128 100 467 475 475 475 475 475 475
India China 124 33 38 135 48 38 28 32 23 119 41 35 146 518 156 136 473 142 142 142 142 142 142 142
BRICs YoY Rest of emerging markets Shipments YoY 72 116 1Q25 69 117 2Q25 68 124 3Q25 76 121 69 120 1Q26 65 110 61 98 65 90 4Q26E 271 409 2023 286 456 2024 285 478 2025 261 417 259 432 2027E 260 448 2028E 260 448 2028E 260 448 2028E 260 448 2028E 260 448 2028E 260 448 2028E
7% 1% Global Developed markets 2% -2% 4% 1% 4Q25 3% 1% -3% -4% 2Q26 -7% -4% 3Q26E -15% -5% -3% -7% 6% -2% 2026E -10%
USA 1% -4% -1% 2% 2% -5% -5% -14% -4% -5% -5% -7% -2% 2% -1% 0% -4% -5% 2% 1% 0% 2% 1% 0% 2% 1% 0% 2% 1% 0% 2% 1% 0% 2% 1% 0% 2% 1% 0%
-4% 1% Western Europe BRICs -3% -5% -3% 1% -1% -1% 1% -4% -7% -4% -9% -4% -4% -8% -6% -3% 4% -2% 1% 3% -4% 1% 1% 4% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0%
-10% India China 0% -5% 8% -4% 3% 3% -15% -12% -11% -14% -4% 7% 6% -10% -13%
2023 2024 2025 2026E Rest of 3% 3% 6% 0% -1% -4% -15% -6% -6% -15% -11% -26% 1% -5% 0% 11% 0% -9% 0% 4% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 4%
2027E emerging markets Shipments market share 4% 6% 6% 3% -21% 4Q26E 5% 2025 -13%
1Q25 2Q25 100% 3Q25 100% 4Q25 100% 24% 1Q26 100% 20% 2Q26 100% 3Q26E 100% 100% 2023 100% 2024 100% 2026E 100% 22% 2027E 100% 22% 2028E 100% 22% 10% 2028E 100% 22% 10% 2028E 100% 22% 10% 2028E 100% 22% 10% 2028E 100% 22% 10% 2028E 100% 22% 10% 2028E 100% 22% 10%
Rest of emerging mkt YoY Global Developed markets USA 100% 21% 10% 19% 8% 21% 10% 12% 10% 23% 11% 27% 14% 24% 11% 22% 10% 100% 21% 10% 11%
11% 5% Western Europe 8% 8% 7% 9% 8% 19% 8% 8% 8% 10% 8% 8% 10% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%
BRICs India 41% 11% 42% 41% 40% 39% 41% 12% 42% 14% 42% 9% 41% 41% 8% 41% 8% 41%
0% 13% 15% 21% 11% 9% 12% 23% 12% 12% 23% 12% 23% 41% 12% 23% 12% 22% 40% 12% 22% 40% 12% 22% 40% 12% 22% 40% 12% 22% 40% 12% 22%
-13% 4% China Rest of 24% 38% 23% 39% 2Q25 38% 3Q25 22% 36% 4Q25 23% 41% 1Q26 24% 40% 22% 35% 31% 4Q26E 23% 35% 2023 37% 2024 38% 2025 20.2 37% 2026E 35.0 37% 2027E 66.1 38% 2028E 76.6
2023 2024 2025 2026E2027E emerging markets Foldable phones Shipment 1Q25 4.2 3.3 8.0 4.7 3.5 2Q26 3.0 3Q26E 13.2 15.4 18.2 18.7 1.5% 5.7% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%
Penetration rate Xiaomi Transsion 1.4% 0.1 1.1% 0.1 0.0 2.4% 0.1 1.4% 0.1 0.1 1.1% 0.0 4.7% 0.2 5.3% 0.1 0.8 1.6% 0.5 0.1 0.8 1.5 3.1% 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
0.0 0.0 1.2% 0.0 0.5 0.8 - 0.0 0.0 1.6% 0.3 0.1 1.2 4.6 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
Lenovo Samsung 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.0 0.7 10.0 0.2 2.7 6.4 2.7 7.0 0.1 2.7 7.1 13.3 7.7 10.0 8.3 32.6 36.1 36.1 36.1 36.1
Apple Others - 2.8 - 2.2 4.8 - 2.5 - - 3.9 6.5 10.0 2.0 - 1.9 4.0 4.5 3.5 1.8 - 8.8 2.5 - 8.7 1.8 - 8.8 2.5 1.8 - 8.8 2.5 1.8 - 8.8 2.5 1.8 - 8.8 2.5 1.8 - 8.8 2.5 1.8 - 8.8 2.5 11.3 1.8 - 8.8 2.5 18.3 19.9

Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

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