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原始內容
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Taiwan Copper Clad Laminate
Rating: Positive
September sales update: continual price hikes
Sheng Cheng
(886) 2 8758 6253
sheng.cheng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw
Thomas Kim
(886) 2 8758 6249
thomas.kim@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw Summary: After market hours on 5 October 2026, EMC, TUC, and ITEQ released their monthly sales results. Our read-through is positive as the three key CCL vendors beat sales expectations by 5-15% on better pricing and on-going spec upgrades. Our thesis is that the strong AI demand is causing a spill-over impact on the whole CCL industry with low-end CCL having c.100% price hike in 2026E and high-end CCL seeing a 40-50% price hike due to cost inflation in 2026E. Recent data points showed this thesis remains valid. Looking ahead, we expect high-end/low-end CCL to see additional c.10%/20% ASP increases in 4Q26E, which could be the key share price catalyst. We believe that recent negatives news (including the impact of PTFE and CPO/NPO on the industry) are overdone. The impact on high-end CCL from these new technologies is likely to be limited from the point of view of Taiwan CCL companies. As such, we remain positive that the three names in our CCL coverage will ride on the decent price hike trend given favourable supply-demand dynamics.
Copper clad laminate (CCL) sector: Sep-26 monthly sales (TWD bn)
| Company | Ticker | Price | Rating | Sep Sales | MoM | YoY | 3Q26 Sales | QoQ | YoY | Achieved % | PER 2026E 2027E | PER 2026E 2027E | 3-Yr Range | Release Date | Consensus | Consensus Achieved % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCL EMC | 2383 TT | 5,700.0 | Buy | 21.5 | 7% | 169% | 60.9 | 29% | 142% | 112% | 50.7 | 25.8 | 6-30x | 5-Oct | 55.5 | 110% |
| TUC | 6274 TT | 1,780.0 | Buy | 6.1 | 4% | 115% | 17.9 | 26% | 123% | 103% | 49.0 | 22.2 | 7-17x | 5-Oct | 17.1 | 105% |
| ITEQ | 6213 TT | 751.0 | Buy | 5.8 | 15% | 111% | 15.6 | 35% | 102% | 114% | 49.3 | 25.7 | 9-45x | 5-Oct | 14.5 | 108% |
Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts. Note: Closing prices as of 5 October 2026.
· EMC (2383 TT, TWD5,700, Buy [1])
EMC's September 2026 revenue was TWD21.5bn (+7% MoM, +169% YoY), which led to its 3Q26 sales (TWD60.9bn; +29% QoQ, +142% YoY) reaching 112% of our 3Q26 forecast (TWD54.4bn) and 110% of the Bloomberg consensus forecast (TWD55.5bn). We attribute the revenue strength to the higher-than-expected price hike and on-going spec upgrades (leading to higher ASPs). Management attributes c.50% of the MoM increase in revenue in September to the price hike and the other 50% came to product mix optimisation. Looking ahead, the company doesn't rule out the potential to increase its ASP again in 4Q26 (after the first time in 2Q26) in order to reflect rising raw material prices since 2Q26. As such, we expect revenue to grow at least high teens again on the potential price head as well as ongoing spec upgrades.
EMC sees limited impact from PTFE and HC glass-fibre-free CCL. Based on our understanding, PTFE is still under certification accounting for only limited layers inside specified high-end PCB as of now. As such, its impact on the high-end CCL TAM should be limited. As for HC glass-fibre-free CCL, the rigidity of PCB using this type of CCL could be a key concern to us.
Lastly, regarding the recent Co-Packaged Optics/Near-Packaged Optics (CPO/NPO) news's negative impact on the CCL TAM, we also believe it to be limited given the likely adoption date for CPO of 2030, based on EMC's forecast. Besides, we believe the PCB board inside CPO scale-up switches at that time would still need to support an 800G/1.6T transmission speed (or even lower) which would still require high-end PCB transmission although the highest transmission bandwidth can increase to 3.2T via optics. Lastly, EMC believes the spec of CCL won't downgrade to M4 in the worst-case scenario but would be at least M6. Last but not least, we believe this kind of CPO-connected AI server might only
5 October 2026
exist in the most of high-end scenario for training purposes only. Thus, the total volume shouldn't be large.
Given its leading position in the CCL industry and the likely imbalance between supply and demand in 2027, we remain positive view on EMC. We have a Buy (1) rating on EMC, with a 12-month TP of TWD7,200, based on a target PER of 38x applied to our 1-year forward EPS forecast. Key downside risk: weaker-than-expected AI server demand.
· TUC (6274 TT, TWD1,780, Buy [1])
TUC's September 2026 revenue was TWD6.1bn (+4% MoM, +115% YoY), which led to its 3Q26 sales (TWD17.9bn; +26% QoQ, +123% YoY) reaching 103% of our 3Q26 forecast (TWD17.4bn) and 105% of the Bloomberg consensus forecast (TWD17.1bn). Looking ahead, we expect TUC to deliver at least QoQ growth in 4Q26 given 1) a price hike along with its peers for high-end CCL (eg. M8) and 2) some shipment delay from 3Q26 given flooding in Southeast Asia. For the longer term, the company is promising a continual spec upgrade trend in 2027 with new projects using M9-grade CCL (including low dk1, low dk2, and Q-glass version) in 2027 for high-end switches, AI servers, and optical transceivers. Considering the insufficient capacity in the CCL industry, we expect TUC to further optimise its product mix after acquiring more high-end CCL orders in future quarters (vs. a single major AI server client in 2026). We have a Buy (1) rating on TUC, with a 12-month TP of TWD2,320, based on a target PER of 35x applied to our 1-year forward EPS forecast. Key downside risks: 1) weaker-than-expected demand for switches/AI servers, and 2) market share loss to CCL peers.
· ITEQ (6213 TT, TWD751, Buy [1])
ITEQ's September 2026 revenue was TWD5.8bn (+15% MoM, +111% YoY), which led to its 3Q26 sales (TWD15.6bn; +35% QoQ, +102% YoY) reaching 114% of our 3Q26 forecast (TWD13.7bn) and 108% of the Bloomberg consensus forecast (TWD14.5bn). The number for 3Q26 was higher than our estimate due likely to a stronger-than-expected price hike (c.30% in 3Q26 vs. expectation of 20%). Looking ahead to 4Q26, we expect the company to further raise its pricing by 20-30% to factor in cost inflation in raw materials (E-glass) and the supply-demand gap. The company also expects the rising supply of e-glass (which could lift its utilisation rate from the current level of 75%) to lift its gross margin more significantly. For 2027, the company is excited about the new CPU adoption driving rising M7 CCL usage and is working on M9 certification with new end customers, which could become a key growth driver in 2028. We have a Buy (1) rating on ITEQ. Key downside risk: weaker-than-expected regular server demand.
In the interests of timeliness, this document has not been edited.