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原始內容
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NYPCB (8046.TW)
New CAPEX plan on high-end CoPoS substrates, suggesting a solid LT ASP uptrend; GM trend start outpacing other ABF players; Re-iterate Buy (on CL)
8046.TW
12m Pri c e Target:
2Q26 result overview
NYPCB 2Q26 core business (OPI) was 15% higher than BBG consensus , but was 8% lower than our estimate (most bullish on the street). GM went up by 8.9ppt QoQ, the highest growth among all Taiwan ABF players (Unimicron/Kinsus' GM went up by +6.8ppt/+4.9ppt QoQ only in 2Q26) , which is in-line with our more bullish view on spot price ABF substrates players' pro fi tability expansion speed vs. LTA players. For earnings, NYPCB's 2Q EPS was
- 5% higher than the BBG consensus but was 18% lower than GSe.
3Q26 outlook - UTR in Kunshan start ramping up despite low yield rate, while ABF/BT pricing hike will continue to drive GM/OPM For 3Q26, we expect NYPCB's revenue will go up by 27% QoQ in 3Q26 , while the key update is the company's Kunshan plant (~15-20% of overall ABF substrate capacity) utilization rate reached 70% in July (vs. 50% in 2Q26; which drove July revenue went up by 16% MoM), with key high end customers starting to place orders in mainland China (which is in-line with our view that all the ABF substrates capacity will be working under fully utilized level from 2H26, due to the severe shortage condition of ~15-20% shortage ratio; see here).
However, our understanding is that the company's Kunshan plant was built for mid to low end ABF substrates, and the increasing production on high-end ABF substrate in Kunshan plant could lead to an unfavorable GM for overall ABF substrates business in the near term (3Q26), but we do expect this will be o ff set by the increasing spot price from August/September, and we also believe the yield rate will eventually improve and lead to an even higher than company's average GM in coming months/quarters. As a result, we expect NYPCB's 3Q GM will further jump by 6.6ppt QoQ to 31.3%, whose GM could surpass Kinsus/Unimicron and become the highest among all Taiwan ABF suppliers (we expect
Chao Wang
+886(2)2730-4195 | kuan-chao.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Al Wang
+886(2)2730-4081 | al.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch
Key Data _____________________________________
Market cap: NT$714.0bn / $22.1bn Enterprise value: NT$697.3bn / $21.6bn 3m ADTV: NT$17.1bn / $536.2mn Taiwan
Taiwan Electronic Components
M&A Rank: 3
Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No
| GS Forecast | 12/25 | __________ 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue(NT$mn) New | 40,173.0 | 63,496.6 | 128,352.1 | 208,109.8 |
| Revenue (NT$ mn) Old | 4 0,173.0 | 6 4 ,805.0 | 127,360.9 | 19 4 , 4 86.1 |
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 8,876.3 | 23,683.3 | 61,326.0 | 107,5 4 3.3 |
| EPS(NT$) New | 3.01 | 20.68 | 65.83 | 120.18 |
| EPS (NT$) Old | 3.01 | 22. 4 1 | 6 4 .66 | 110.17 |
| P/E (X) | 56.6 | 53. 4 | 16.8 | 9.2 |
| P/B (X) | 2. 4 | 13.2 | 9.0 | 5.7 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 1.2 | 0.7 | 2. 4 | 4 . 4 |
| CROCI (%) | 6.3 | 20.0 | 4 3.1 | 60.2 |
| 6/26 | 9/26E | 12/26E | 3/27E | |
| EPS (NT$) | 3.50 | 6.16 | 8.99 | 11.23 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details.
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the fi rm may have a con fl ict of interest that could a ff ect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certi fi cation and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US a ffi liates are not registered/quali fi ed as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
NT$2,500.00
Pri
c
e:
NT$1,105.00
Upside:
126.2%
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
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NYPCB (8046.TW)
Rating since Aug 25, 2025
Ratios & Valuation __________________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (X) | 56.6 | 53.4 | 16.8 | 9.2 |
| P/B (X) | 2.4 | 13.2 | 9. 0 | 5.7 |
| FCF yield (%) | 0 .5 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 5.6 |
| EV/EBITDAR (X) | 11.4 | 29.4 | 11.2 | 6.1 |
| EV/EBITDA (excl. leases) (X) | 11.4 | 29.4 | 11.2 | 6.1 |
| CROCI (%) | 6.3 | 2 0 . 0 | 43.1 | 6 0 .2 |
| ROE (%) | 4.3 | 26.7 | 63.6 | 75.4 |
| Net debt/equity (%) | (18.6) | (3 0 .8) | (37.6) | (42.1) |
| Net debt/equity (excl. leases) (%) | (18.6) | (3 0 .8) | (37.6) | (42.1) |
| Inte r est c ov e r (X) | 27 , 921.3 | -- | -- | -- |
| Days in v ent or y o utst , sales | 41.7 | 32.4 | 22.7 | 21.1 |
| Recei v able days | 76.4 | 7 0 .4 | 63.5 | 68.7 |
| Days p ayable o utstandin g | 16.1 | 21.9 | 24.5 | 25.3 |
| DuP o nt ROE (%) | 4.2 | 24.7 | 53.4 | 61.5 |
| Tu r n ov e r (X) | 0 .7 | 0 .8 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| L e v e r a g e (X) | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Gro ss cas h in v ested (ex cas h ) (NT $ ) | 98 , 759.1 | 1 0 5 , 9 0 4.3 | 125 , 787.2 | 157 , 1 0 4.7 |
| A v e r a g e ca p ital e mp l o yed (NT $ ) | 37 , 251.5 | 37 , 486.7 | 43 , 581.2 | 61 , 391. 0 |
| BVP S (NT $ ) | 71.38 | 83.79 | 123.28 | 195.39 |
Growth & Margins (%) ______________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue growth | 2 4.4 | 58 . 1 | 102 . 1 | 62 . 1 |
| E BITDA growth | 70 . 9 | 166 . 8 | 158 . 9 | 75 .4 |
| E PS growth | 855 . 6 | 586 .4 | 218 . 3 | 82 . 6 |
| DPS growth | 100 . 0 | 313 . 6 | 218 . 3 | 82 . 6 |
| E BIT margin | 4. 9 | 25 . 9 | 4 1 . 9 | 4 7 . 8 |
| E BITDA margin | 22 . 1 | 37 . 3 | 4 7 . 8 | 51 . 7 |
| Net income margin | 4. 8 | 21 . 0 | 33 . 1 | 37 . 3 |
| 3m | 6m | 12m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute | 17.6% | 191.6% | 535.1% |
| Rel. to the TaiwanSE Weighted Index | 8.9% | 108.7% | 235.4% |
Source: FactSet. Price as of 6 Aug 2026 close.
Income Statement (NT$ mn) ________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| To t a l r e v e nu e | 4 0, 1 73.0 | 63,496.6 | 1 28,352. 1 | 208, 1 09.8 |
| Co s t of good s s old | (36,525.9) | (45, 1 72.0) | (7 1 ,625.7) | ( 1 04,343. 1 ) |
| SG&A | ( 1 ,664.6) | ( 1 ,2 1 2.8) | ( 1 ,833.5) | (2,593.7) |
| R&D | 0.0 | (666.9) | ( 1 , 1 67.4) | ( 1 ,6 1 0. 1 ) |
| Other operating inc./(exp.) | -- | -- 2 3, 68 3.3 | -- 61 ,3 26 .0 | -- 1 0 7 , 5 43.3 |
| E BITDA Depreciation& amortization | 8 , 876 .3 | (7,600.5) | (7,980.5) | |
| E BIT | (6,893.8) 1 ,9 82 .4 | (7,238.5) 16 ,444. 8 | 5 3, 725 . 5 | 99, 562 . 8 |
| Net intere s t inc./(exp.) | 1 58.2 | 1 60.3 | 3 11 .6 | 558.6 |
| Income/(lo ss ) from a ss ociate s | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- |
| Pre-tax pro fi t | 2 ,34 5 . 5 | 17 , 127 .0 | 5 3, 725 . 5 | 99, 562 . 8 |
| Provi s ion for taxe s | (398.7) | (3,765. 1 ) | ( 11 , 1 89.0) | (2 1 ,903.8) |
| Minority intere s t | -- | -- -- | -- | -- -- |
| Preferred dividend s ls) | -- | -- | ||
| N et inc . ( pre-ex c ept i o n a | 1 ,94 6 . 8 | 1 3,3 61 .9 | 4 2 , 5 3 6 . 5 | 77 , 65 9.0 |
| Po s t-tax exceptional s | -- 1 ,94 6 . 8 | -- 1 3,3 61 .9 | -- 4 2 , 5 3 6 . 5 | -- 77 , 65 9.0 |
| N et inc . ( po s t-ex c ept i o n a ls) E P S(b a sic , pre-ex c ept ) (N T $) | 3.0 1 | 2 0. 68 | 65 . 8 3 | 12 0. 18 |
| 3.0 1 | 65 . 8 3 | 12 0. 18 | ||
| E P S(dilu te d , pre-ex c ept ) (N T $) E P S(b a sic , po s t-ex c ept ) (N T $) | 3.0 1 | 2 0. 68 2 0. 68 | 65 . 8 3 | 12 0. 18 |
| E P S(dilu te d , po s t-ex c ept ) (N T $) | 3.0 1 | 2 0. 68 | 65 . 8 3 | 12 0. 18 |
| 2.00 | 26.33 | |||
| DPS (NT$) | 8.27 | 48.07 | ||
| Div. payout ratio (%) | ||||
| 66.4 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 40.0 | |
| Balance Sheet (NT$ mn) a lents | 12/25 8,589.5 | ______ 12/26E 16,700.0 | 12/27E 29,939.4 | 12/28E 53,197.8 |
| C a sh& c a sh equiv Accounts receiv a ble | 9,707.7 | 14,786.9 | 29,890.2 | 48,463.9 14,293.6 |
| Inventory Other current a ssets | 5,067.7 257.8 | 6,188.0 | 9,811.7 257.8 | 257.8 |
| Total current assets | 2 3, 622 . | 257.8 3 7 ,93 2 . | 6 9, 8 99. | , 21 3. 1 |
| 6 35,373.3 | 6 | 1 | 116 | |
| Net PP&E Net int a ngibles | -- | 35,134.8 -- | 42,534.3 -- | 59,553.9 -- |
| Tot a l investments | 500.2 1,711.2 | 500.2 1,711.2 | 500.2 1,711.2 | 500.2 1,711.2 |
| Other long-term a ssets Total assets | 61 , 2 0 7 .4 | 75 , 278 . 8 | 11 4, 6 44.9 | 177 ,9 78 .4 |
| Accounts p a y a ble | 1,710.9 | 3,712.8 | 5,887.0 -- | 8,576.1 |
| Short-term debt | -- | |||
| Short-term le a se li a bilities | 0.0 | -- -- | -- | -- |
| Other current li a bilities | -- | ,0 87 . 2 | 35,249.2 43, 825 .3 | |
| Total current liabilities | 5,477.9 7 , 188 . 8 | 9,530.3 1 3, 2 43. 1 | 21,200.2 27 | |
| Long-term debt Long-term le a se li a | 0.0 | -- | -- | -- -- |
| bilities Other long-term li a bilities | -- 7,895.8 | -- 7,895.8 | -- 7,895.8 | 7,895.8 |
| Total long-term liabilities | 7 , 8 9 5 . 8 | 7 , 8 9 5 . 8 | 7 , 8 9 5 . 8 | 7 , 8 9 5 . 8 |
| Total liabilities | 21 , 1 3 8 . 8 | 34,9 82 .9 | 51 , 721 . 1 | |
| Preferred sh a res Tot a l commonequity | 15 ,0 8 4. 5 -- 46,122.9 | -- 54,140.0 | -- 79,661.9 | -- 126,257.3 -- |
| Minority interest | -- 61 , 2 0 7 | -- | -- 11 4, 6 44.9 | 177 ,9 78 .4 |
| Total liabilities &equity | .4 | 75 , 278 . 8 | (29,939.4) | (53,197.8) |
| Net debt, a djusted | (16,700.0) | |||
| Cash Flow (NT$ mn) | (8,589.5) | __________ 12/26E | 12/27E 42,536.5 | 12/28E |
| Net income D&Aadd-back | 12/25 1,946.8 6,893.8 | 13,361.9 7,238.5 | 7,600.5 | 77,659.0 7,980.5 |
| Minority interest add-back Net (inc)/dec w orking | -- (3,218.0) | -- (4,197.5) | -- (16,552.8) | -- (20,366.5) |
| capital Other operating cash flo w | (2,595.6) 3 ,0 27 .0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Cash flow fro m operations | 16 ,40 2 .9 | 0.0 33 , 58 4. 1 | 65 , 273 .0 | |
| expenditures | (2,422.3) | (7,000.0) -- | (15,000.0) -- | (25,000.0) |
| Capital Acquisitions | -- 74.6 | -- | -- | -- -- |
| Divestitures | ||||
| Others | 625.1 | -- | ||
| Cash flow fro m investing | ( 1 , 722 . 7 ) | -- ( 7 ,000.0) | -- ( 15 ,000.0) | ( 25 ,000.0) |
| Repayment of lease liabilities | -- | -- | -- | -- (17,014.6) |
| Dividends paid(common& pref) | (646.2) | (1,292.3) | (5,344.7) | -- |
| Inc/(dec) in debt | -- | -- | -- | 0.0 |
| Other financing cash flo w s Cash flow fro m financing | (549.4) 1 , 1 9 5 . 5 ) | 0.0 ( 1 , 2 9 2 . 3 ) | 0.0 ( 5 , 3 44. 7 ) | ,0 1 4. 6 ) 23 , 258 .4 |
| Total cash flow | ( 1 0 8 . 8 | 8 , 11 0. 5 | 13 , 23 9.4 | ( 17 |
| Free cash flo w | 604.7 | 9,402.9 | 18,584.1 | 40,273.0 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
NYPCB (8046.TW)
Revenue
Gross profits
Operating profits
Pre-tax income
Net earnings
EPS, NT$
Gross margin (%)
EBIT margin (%)
Net margin (%)
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2Q26
GS est.
13,575
Diff (%)
0%
QoQ
1Q26
11,177
QoQ
21%
YoY
2Q25
9,583
YoY
42%
Bloomberg consensus
Consensus
13,475
Kinsus/Unimicron GM will reach 28.4%/27.4% in 3Q).
3,144
-8%
1,352
114%
366
692%
2,887
2,524
1%
16%
15%
Investment thesis - GM to surpass TW peers from 2H26; new CAPEX on high end ABF substrates suggesting more upside on ASP in LT 2,174 4%
As discussed several times (see here), we believe NYPCB will start outgrowing players on the margin side from 2H26, when the ABF substrate market enters a real supply shortage stage, and we saw NYPCB's GM approaching Kinsus/Unimicron's in 2Q26, who should start delivering a stronger GM from 2H26, as we discussed, due mainly to the company's proactive strategy on pricing (focus on spot price market should make the company deliver a better GM/OPM outlook than LTA peers during the shortage period). Considering our positive view on the ABF substrate demand and the long capacity expansion lead time of the industry, we believe the ABF substrate capacity shortage period will last for 30+ months, implying NYPCB's outperformance on GM/OPM growth vs. other TW ABF names should not be just a short-term condition.
Moreover, the company announced a new CAPEX plan (here), while the company will invest in NT$46.8bn (vs. the company's overall CAPEX in 2025 was only at NT$2.4bn vs. peak annual CAPEX in last upcycle was NT$16.9bn only) on a new high-end ABF substrate plant in Chiayi. Based on our estimate, the new capacity will be used to produce TSMC next generation CoPoS packaging substrates, and the capacity could come on stream right after TSMC start mass producing CoPoS packaging technology in 2H28-1H29 (the capacity expansion lead time is also in-line with our view of 30+ months). We do believe the company's proactive investment in the next generation packaging technology should lead the company's overall ASP to another level, while we believe the substrate size / layer count could be 100%/ 30%+ larger/higher than the company's most high end products now, suggesting a long term revenue/earnings outlook after 2028.
Overall, considering the near term pro fi tability outperformance and the positive long term revenue/earning outlook with the new high-end capacity expansion, we maintain our Buy rating (on CL) on NYPCB with new TP of NT$2,500 (from NT$2,310).
Exhibit 1: 2Q26 result comp table
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
Earnings revision
We revise up our 2027/28/29E earnings estimate by 2/9/23% to factor in the more
Actual
13,575
3,360
2,899
2,976
2,262
3.50
24.7%
21.4%
16.7%
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
cambIlS. NIreD raL lavie
NTSmn
1Q26
Revenue
NYPCB P&L (NTS mn)
Sales
Gross Profit
Gross profit
Operating expense
Operating income
EBIT
Net Income
EPS (NTS)
Pretax income
Taxes expense
Net income
Ratio analysis
Gross margin
EPS, NTS
(419)
1,352
1,598
(290)
1.309
EBIT margin
2.03
Net margin
Ratio analysis and assumption
As % of sales
Gross margin
Operating expense ratio
Operating margin
Net margin
QoQ growth (%)
Revenue
Gross profit
Operating income
Net in come
YoY growth (%)
Revenue
Gross profit
Net income
For the exclusive use of KEVINLU@LENOVO.COM
2Q26
2026E New
3Q26E
17,284
63,497
5,408
(486)
18,325
4,922
16,445
13.362
20.68
5,102
(1,122)
3.979
6.16
25.9%
28.9%
21.0%
32.1%
2,899
(460)
2.976
(714)
2.262
3.50
41.7%
4Q26E
2026E Old
1Q27E
21,460
24,118
7,785
64,805
9.566
(514)
19,351
(607)
7.271
14,478
8,959
17,488
5.812
2026E
2027E
63.497
4Q28E
2028E Old
59,655
2025
Diff.
40,173
30.536
194,486
(1,279)
91,270
95,782
29,257
2029E New
336,653
128,352
18.325
3.647
7%
8%
(1,665)
1,982
189,175
56.726
(1,880)
(3.001)
16,445
142,836
Diff.
2029E
336,653
181,906
23%
2029E Old
2028E
208.110
103,767
99.563
116.387
4Q27E
2027E Old
1Q28E
40,351
44,585
19.022
55.812
127,361
21.749
(928)
2Q28E
2028E New
50,594
3Q28E
53.276
208,110
25.020
Diff.
1% -
(951)
18,094
52,764
41,783
2Q27E
Diff.
2027E New
29,222
3Q27E
34,661
12.422
-2%
-5%
128,352
(696)
-6%
-8%
15.716
56,726
(769)
14,947
53.725
42,537
103,767
26.462
(1,012)
25,450
77,659
2%
(961)
24.059
2%
2%
9%
9%
11,726
20,798
53,725
favorable than expected ABF GM outlook in coming years considering the more increased tightness on the ABF substrate industry. Moreover, the company's new announcement on capacity build for high layer count / large body size substrate should lead to an even more favorable product mix and shipment from 2H28. 7.256 9.146 11.659 14.475 18.766 19.851 22.820| 42.537 77.659 142.836 56.2%
2.2%
We slightly revise down the 2026 revenue estimate by 2% (due to the less favorable than expected PCB demand) and revise down our GM assumption by 1.0ppt (to factor in the slower than expected initial Kunshan plant ABF substrate yield rate ramp up on high-end products). 100.5% 47.8% 53.7% 49.0% 47.8% 4.9% 24% 25.9% 58% 41.9% 102% 47.8% 62% 54.0% 62%
337.0%
440.0%
415.2%
456.8%
Exhibit 2: Earnings revision table
304.4%
304.4%
105.2%
105.2%
68.4%
70.3%
70.3%
148.8%
149.1%
203.7%
193.0%
127.4%
132.2%
123.6%
60.5%
61.7%
57.7%
920%
-257%
856%
402%
730%
586%
210%
227%
218%
83%
85%
83%
82%
83%
84%
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation
We are Buy rated on NYPCB, with a new TP of NT$2,500 (from NT$2,310), based on an unchanged 21x 2028E EPS (+1.5x STDV above the past upcycle average P/E of 13.3x as we expect a better pricing outlook in spot price market this time vs. last upcycle in 2020-2022), considering the much better customer mix and the much better demand visibility.
99,563
181,906
Exhibit 3: NYPCB P&L table
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Investment Thesis & PT methodology and risks
Investment Thesis - NYPCB
NYPCB manufactures and markets printed circuit boards (PCBs) and integrated circuit (IC) substrates (including ABF and BT substrates). We are Buy-rated on NYPCB considering the company's high exposure to BT substrates and non-LTA ABF substrate e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
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(70%+ of total revenue), where we expect GM/OPM to increase signi fi cantly in the coming quarters (from breakeven in OPM in 1H25 to 27/41% in 2026/27E) due to the favorable substrate pricing outlook. Despite the company's low exposure to high-end ABF substrate industry (<20% of total revenue in 1H25), we believe the expanding demand from ASIC AI server and high-end switch IC demand will drive the company's high-end ABF revenue exposure to 40%+ by 2027E, suggesting better GM/OPM outlook in the long term. In 2H25-2H26, we believe NYPCB will continue to bene fi t from stronger ABF/BT pricing and should be a key bene fi ciary of the pricing uptrend considering the company's key focus on BT and non-LTA ABF substrate industries. Moreover, in the long term (after 2026), we expect the ABF industry to return to supply tightness, and NYPCB's expanding high-end exposure will lead to a long term earnings growth outlook (122% 2026-28E earnings CAGR). As a result, we see solid upside potential for NYPCB's earnings and stock performance.
Price Target Risks and Methodology - NYPCB
Valuation methodology: Our 12-month target price of NT$2,500 for NYPCB is based on 21x 2028E P/E, which is +1.5x STDV higher than the past upcycle average P/E (13.3x).
Key downside risks: (1) Slower-than-expected PC demand recovery, (2) Slower-than-expected ABF substrates pricing upgrading outlook, and (3) Slower-than-expected NYPCB new high-end capacity quali fi cation progress.
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