PDF 原檔：報告_Citi_散熱產業_奇鋐雙鴻上修目標價_20260917_original.pdf
原始內容
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a
Taiwan Electronic Components & Equipment
Thermal Sector: Progress on VR, Upside from ASIC; Buy on AVC & Auras
CITI'S TAKE
Our checks and mgmt. comments indicate Vera Rubin has begun contributing in small volumes at AVC from this month, with a further ramp in 4Q26, while the ongoing ASIC project shifts progressively from air cooling to liquid cooling and another ASIC enters mass production. Auras, following an Aug monthly revenue pullback from a high base in Jul, remains on track for mgmt.'s guidance of at least 15% QoQ in 3Q26E, with Vera Rubin manifolds and ASIC liquid cooling version supporting 4Q26E. Into 2027, cold plate demand continues to run ahead of supply, and both companies should see ASIC contribution rise. We raise AVC's TP to NT$4,350 (from NT$3,800) with unchanged 25x 2027E EPS and Auras' TP to NT$1,800 (from NT$1,550) with unchanged 20x 2027E EPS. Reiterate Buy on both names.
AVC: ASIC carries the near term; further expansion into 2027 We forecast 3Q26E/4Q26E revenue growth of 18%/12% QoQ, driven by ongoing ASIC's shift to liquid cooling, another ASIC mass production, and Vera Rubin's initial ramp as new capacity comes online. GPM should improve on a sequential basis on yield gains and a higher server and liquid cooling mix. With cold plate demand running ahead of supply, we expect another round of capacity expansion in 2027E, consistent with mgmt.'s view that ASIC contribution catches up with GPU.
Auras: VR qualification underway; broadening 2027 growth base We forecast 3Q26E/4Q26E revenue growth of 17%/16%, supported by Vera Rubin inner and rack manifolds and the start of mass production for liquid cooling version of ASIC project, with GPM rising on a higher liquid cooling mix. Our checks indicate Auras is still working through cold plate qualification for Vera Rubin and is now participating in next-gen development; given its operating scale, even a modest share gain could contribute meaningfully to its top line, with the earliest contribution potentially from 1Q27E.
Implications We raise AVC's 2026E/27E/28E earnings forecasts by 3%/13%/16% on higher cold plate capacity and shipment assumptions and a more constructive view on ASIC liquid cooling demand, lifting our target price to NT$4,350 (from NT$3,800) on an unchanged 25x 2027E EPS. For Auras, we raise 2026E/27E/28E earnings forecasts by 2%/14%/17% driven mainly by higher cold plate shipment assumptions alongside a more constructive view on ASIC liquid cooling demand. Our revised target price of NT$1,800 (from NT$1,550) remains based on 20x 2027E EPS. Following the recent share price pullback, we see a favorable risk-reward profile on both names and reiterate our Buy ratings.
Michael Hung AC
+886-2-8726-9092 michael.hung@citi.com
Laura (Chia Yi) Chen +886-2-8726-9090 laura.cy.chen@citi.com
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Data Summary
| Current | Fiscal Year | Next | Fiscal Year | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rating | Short- Term | Target Price | EPS | EPS | |||||||||||||
| Company | Ticker | Ccy | Price | MktCap (M) | Date& Time | Old | New | View | Old | New | ESPR(%) | Div Yld (%) ETR(%) | Last Rpt Yr | Old | New | Old | New |
| AVC | 3017.TW | NT$ | 3,185.00 | 1,250,654 | 17Sep 13:30 | 1 | nc | - 3,800.00 | 4,350.00 | 36.6 | 0.7 | 37.2 | Dec-25 | 102.70 | 105.62 | 153.21 | 173.74 |
| Auras | 3324.TWO | NT$ | 1,385.00 | 128,911 | 17Sep | 1 | nc | - 1,550.00 | 1,800.00 | 30.0 | 1.8 | 31.8 | Dec-25 | 57.68 | 58.80 | 78.45 | 89.09 |
| 1=Buy,2=Neutral,3=Sell,H=HighRisk | 1=Buy,2=Neutral,3=Sell,H=HighRisk | 1=Buy,2=Neutral,3=Sell,H=HighRisk | 1=Buy,2=Neutral,3=Sell,H=HighRisk | 1=Buy,2=Neutral,3=Sell,H=HighRisk | 1=Buy,2=Neutral,3=Sell,H=HighRisk | ESPR=ExpectedSharePriceReturn, ETR=ExpectedTotalReturn, nc=nochange | ESPR=ExpectedSharePriceReturn, ETR=ExpectedTotalReturn, nc=nochange | ESPR=ExpectedSharePriceReturn, ETR=ExpectedTotalReturn, nc=nochange | ESPR=ExpectedSharePriceReturn, ETR=ExpectedTotalReturn, nc=nochange | ESPR=ExpectedSharePriceReturn, ETR=ExpectedTotalReturn, nc=nochange | ESPR=ExpectedSharePriceReturn, ETR=ExpectedTotalReturn, nc=nochange | ESPR=ExpectedSharePriceReturn, ETR=ExpectedTotalReturn, nc=nochange | ESPR=ExpectedSharePriceReturn, ETR=ExpectedTotalReturn, nc=nochange | ESPR=ExpectedSharePriceReturn, ETR=ExpectedTotalReturn, nc=nochange | ESPR=ExpectedSharePriceReturn, ETR=ExpectedTotalReturn, nc=nochange | ESPR=ExpectedSharePriceReturn, ETR=ExpectedTotalReturn, nc=nochange | ESPR=ExpectedSharePriceReturn, ETR=ExpectedTotalReturn, nc=nochange |
| Source: Citi Research | Source: Citi Research | Source: Citi Research | Source: Citi Research | Source: Citi Research | Source: Citi Research | ^CatalystWatch | ^CatalystWatch | ^CatalystWatch | ^CatalystWatch | ^CatalystWatch | ^CatalystWatch | ^CatalystWatch | ^CatalystWatch | ^CatalystWatch | ^CatalystWatch | ^CatalystWatch | ^CatalystWatch |
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Asia Vital Components (3017.TW)
Buy | TP NT$4,350.00 from NT$3,800.00 | Price NT$3,185.00 (17 Sep 26 13:30)
Sequential growth intact, ASIC carrying the upside Our checks and mgmt. comments indicate Vera Rubin platform has begun contributing in small volumes from Sep, with a further ramp expected in 4Q26E. The ongoing ASIC project is now shifting progressively from air cooling to liquid cooling, while another ASIC project enters mass production in 4Q26E, together the main growth drivers as new capacity comes online through the quarter. We now forecast 3Q26E/4Q26E revenue growth at 18%/12% QoQ. GPM should also improve on a sequential basis, supported by yield improvement and a rising contribution from server and liquid cooling products.
ASIC contribution could exceed 50% of liquid cooling revenue in 2027 With cold plate demand continuing to run ahead of supply, we expect AVC to undertake another round of capacity expansion in 2027 to meet rising ASIC demand, consistent with mgmt.'s view that ASIC contribution catches up with GPU in 2027. We also note ongoing discussion around double-sided cold plate adoption, with several platforms at the R&D stage, which we see as a source of upside momentum. Rubin Ultra spec remains under development, and we do not expect the potential TDP adjustments toward a lower level to affect content value, as cold plate content is driven more by design than by chip TDP itself. On a higher liquid cooling contribution, we forecast 2027E revenue to grow another 50% YoY, with GPM to further increase to 34.9% (+2.2ppts YoY).
Implications We raise our 2026E/27E/28E earnings forecasts by 3%/13%/16% to reflect the updated outlook, driven mainly by higher cold plate capacity and shipment assumptions alongside a more constructive view on ASIC liquid cooling demand. Our revised target price of NT$4,350 (from NT$3,800) remains based on 25x 2027E EPS. Given AVC's position in the thermal sector and its valuation following the recent share price pullback, we see a favorable risk-reward profile and reiterate our Buy rating.
Figure 1. AVC - Earnings estimate revisions
| 2026E | 2026E | 2026E | 2027E | 2027E | 2027E | 2028E | 2028E | 2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$mn) | New | Old | Chg. | New | Old | Chg. | New | Old | Chg. |
| Sales | 221,075 | 218,505 | 1% | 332,697 | 305,344 | 9% | 404,256 | 363,328 | 11% |
| Sequential growth | 58% | 56% | 50% | 40% | 22% | 19% | |||
| Gross profit | 72,163 | 70,452 | 2% | 116,061 | 103,669 | 12% | 143,445 | 125,321 | 14% |
| Opex | 11,731 | 11,595 | 1% | 17,079 | 15,671 | 9% | 20,577 | 18,490 | 11% |
| Operating profit | 60,432 | 58,857 | 3% | 98,982 | 87,998 | 12% | 122,868 | 106,831 | 15% |
| Pre-tax profit | 61,360 | 59,785 | 3% | 100,004 | 89,019 | 12% | 123,889 | 107,852 | 15% |
| Net income | 41,464 | 40,315 | 3% | 68,207 | 60,150 | 13% | 84,576 | 72,839 | 16% |
| EPS (NT$) | 105.62 | 102.70 | 3% | 173.74 | 153.21 | 13% | 215.43 | 185.53 | 16% |
| Gross margin | 32.6% | 32.2% | +0.4 ppt | 34.9% | 34.0% | +0.9ppt | 35.5% | 34.5% | +1.0 ppt |
| Opex ratio | 5.3% | 5.3% | -0.0 ppt | 5.1% | 5.1% | +0.0 ppt | 5.1% | 5.1% | +0.0 ppt |
| Operating margin | 27.3% | 26.9% | +0.4 ppt | 29.8% | 28.8% | +0.9ppt | 30.4% | 29.4% | +1.0 ppt |
| Net margin | 18.8% | 18.5% | +0.3 ppt | 20.5% | 19.7% | +0.8ppt | 20.9% | 20.0% | +0.9ppt |
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Citi Research Estimates
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© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Company Reports, Citi Research Estimates, TEJ
Figure 4. AVC - Quarterly earnings forecasts
| (NT$in Mn, year-end Dec) | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | 1Q27E | 2Q27E | 3Q27E | 4Q27E | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 49,038 | 49,121 | 58,054 | 64,862 | 71,848 | 79,326 | 85,579 | 95,943 | 139,639 | 221,075 | 332,697 | 404,256 |
| Gross Profit | 14,597 | 15,999 | 19,510 | 22,057 | 24,854 | 27,607 | 29,741 | 33,859 | 36,034 | 72,163 | 116,061 | 143,445 |
| OPEX | (2,578) | (2,521) | (3,170) | (3,461) | (3,733) | (3,971) | (4,458) | (4,917) | (8,478) | (11,731) | (17,079) | (20,577) |
| Operating profit | 12,019 | 13,478 | 16,340 | 18,596 | 21,122 | 23,636 | 25,283 | 28,942 | 27,556 | 60,432 | 98,982 | 122,868 |
| Total Non-OP | (40) | 457 | 255 | 255 | 255 | 255 | 255 | 255 | 1,231 | 928 | 1,021 | 1,021 |
| Pre-tax profit | 11,979 | 13,935 | 16,595 | 18,851 | 21,377 | 23,891 | 25,538 | 29,197 | 28,786 | 61,360 | 100,004 | 123,889 |
| Net Profit | 7,916 | 9,567 | 11,298 | 12,683 | 14,848 | 16,219 | 17,393 | 19,748 | 19,186 | 41,464 | 68,207 | 84,576 |
| EPS (NT$) | 20.17 | 24.37 | 28.78 | 32.31 | 37.82 | 41.31 | 44.30 | 50.30 | 49.17 | 105.62 | 173.74 | 215.43 |
| Revenue mix | ||||||||||||
| Thermal | 64% | 62% | 65% | 65% | 67% | 68% | 67% | 69% | 57% | 64% | 68% | 68% |
| Chassis | 20% | 21% | 19% | 19% | 18% | 19% | 19% | 18% | 18% | 20% | 19% | 20% |
| System Integration | 8% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 16% | 8% | 6% | 5% |
| Hinge (Fositek) | 9% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% |
| Margins (%) | ||||||||||||
| Gross profit | 29.8% | 32.6% | 33.6% | 34.0% | 34.6% | 34.8% | 34.8% | 35.3% | 25.8% | 32.6% | 34.9% | 35.5% |
| OPEXtosales | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% |
| Operating Margin | 24.5% | 27.4% | 28.1% | 28.7% | 29.4% | 29.8% | 29.5% | 30.2% | 19.7% | 27.3% | 29.8% | 30.4% |
| Pre-tax profit | 24.4% | 28.4% | 28.6% | 29.1% | 29.8% | 30.1% | 29.8% | 30.4% | 20.6% | 27.8% | 30.1% | 30.6% |
| Net Margin | 16.1% | 19.5% | 19.5% | 19.6% | 20.7% | 20.4% | 20.3% | 20.6% | 13.7% | 18.8% | 20.5% | 20.9% |
| Y/Y | ||||||||||||
| Net sales | 110.2% | 66.0% | 49.1% | 35.8% | 46.5% | 61.5% | 47.4% | 47.9% | 94.6% | 58.3% | 50.5% | 21.5% |
| Gross profit | 142.2% | 121.5% | 91.8% | 74.9% | 70.3% | 72.6% | 52.4% | 53.5% | 88.7% | 43.7% | 45.5% | 20.4% |
| Operating profit | 175.6% | 164.5% | 102.1% | 85.7% | 75.7% | 75.4% | 54.7% | 55.6% | 154.6% | 119.3% | 63.8% | 24.1% |
| Pre-tax profit | 159.3% | 136.3% | 102.0% | 87.5% | 78.5% | 71.4% | 53.9% | 54.9% | 133.1% | 113.2% | 63.0% | 23.9% |
| Net Margin | 146.3% | 139.3% | 111.6% | 91.1% | 87.6% | 69.5% | 53.9% | 55.7% | 134.8% | 116.1% | 64.5% | 24.0% |
| Q/Q | ||||||||||||
| Net sales | 2.6% | 0.2% | 18.2% | 11.7% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 12% | ||||
| Gross profit | 15.8% | 9.6% | 21.9% | 13.1% | 13% | 11% | 8% | 14% | ||||
| Operating profit | 20.0% | 12.1% | 21.2% | 13.8% | 14% | 12% | 7% | 14% | ||||
| Pre-tax profit | 19.2% | 16.3% | 19.1% | 13.6% | 13% | 12% | 7% | 14% | ||||
| Net Margin | 19.3% | 20.9% | 18.1% | 12.3% | 17% | 9% | 7% | 14% |
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Company Reports, Citi Research Estimates
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Source: Company Reports, Citi Research Estimates, TEJ
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Auras Technology (3324.TWO)
Buy | TP NT$1,800.00 from NT$1,550.00 | Price NT$1,385.00 (17 Sep 26 15:00)
Liquid cooling ramp drives sequential acceleration into 4Q26 Following Aug26 revenue, which pulled back from a high base in Jul-26, we believe Auras remains on track to meet mgmt.'s earlier guidance of at least 15% QoQ growth in 3Q26E. Into 4Q26, shipments of Vera Rubin products, including inner/rack manifolds, together with the start of mass production for liquid cooling version of ASIC project, should allow Auras to deliver another solid sequential growth. We now forecast 3Q26E/4Q26E revenue growth of 17%/16% QoQ, with GPM also on an upward trend, supported by a higher liquid cooling revenue mix.
GPU & ASIC projects broaden the 2027 growth base Our checks and mgmt. comments indicate Auras is still working through cold plate qualification for the Vera Rubin platform and is now participating in next generation product development. Given its operating scale, we believe even a modest share gain could contribute meaningfully to its top line, and we expect the earliest potential contribution from 1Q27E. Auras should also benefit from rising ASIC liquid cooling demand, with existing ASIC project shipments to expand above 4Q26E levels and several further projects now under discussion. We forecast 2027E revenue growth of 35% YoY, with liquid cooling mix rising from 61% in 2026E to 70% in 2027E and GPM reaching 31.3% (+1.2ppts YoY).
Implications We raise our 2026E/27E/28E earnings forecasts by 2%/14%/17% to reflect the updated outlook, driven mainly by higher cold plate shipment assumptions alongside a more constructive view on ASIC liquid cooling demand. Our revised target price of NT$1,800 (from NT$1,550) remains based on 20x 2027E EPS. Given Auras' structural growth in the server business, widening liquid cooling content across both GPU and ASIC platforms, and an optimizing global manufacturing footprint in Thailand, we view the current valuation as attractive and reiterate our Buy rating.
Figure 5. Auras - Earnings estimate revisions
| 2026E | 2026E | 2026E | 2027E | 2027E | 2027E | 2028E | 2028E | 2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$mn) | New | Old | Chg. | New | Old | Chg. | New | Old | Chg. |
| Sales | 39,310 | 38,534 | 2% | 53,977 | 47,965 | 13% | 64,616 | 56,281 | 15% |
| Sequential growth | 69% | 66% | 37% | 24% | 20% | 17% | |||
| Gross profit | 11,822 | 11,566 | 2% | 16,873 | 14,879 | 13% | 20,493 | 17,620 | 16% |
| Opex | 4,656 | 4,567 | 2% | 6,257 | 5,561 | 13% | 7,490 | 6,525 | 15% |
| Operating profit | 7,166 | 6,999 | 2% | 10,616 | 9,318 | 14% | 13,003 | 11,096 | 17% |
| Pre-tax profit | 7,096 | 6,929 | 2% | 10,521 | 9,223 | 14% | 12,908 | 11,001 | 17% |
| Net income | 5,462 | 5,326 | 3% | 8,292 | 7,244 | 14% | 10,227 | 8,686 | 18% |
| EPS (NT$) | 58.80 | 57.68 | 2% | 89.09 | 78.45 | 14% | 109.88 | 94.07 | 17% |
| Gross margin | 30.1% | 30.0% | +0.1 ppt | 31.3% | 31.0% | +0.2 ppt | 31.7% | 31.3% | +0.4 ppt |
| Opex ratio | 11.8% | 11.9% | -0.0 ppt | 11.6% | 11.6% | -0.0 ppt | 11.6% | 11.6% | -0.0 ppt |
| Operating margin | 18.2% | 18.2% | +0.1 ppt | 19.7% | 19.4% | +0.2 ppt | 20.1% | 19.7% | +0.4 ppt |
| Net margin | 13.9% | 13.8% | +0.1 ppt | 15.4% | 15.1% | +0.3 ppt | 15.8% | 15.4% | +0.4 ppt |
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Citi Research Estimates
Prepared for [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
Source: Company Reports, Citi Research Estimates, TEJ
Figure 8. Auras - Quarterly earnings forecasts
| (NT$in Mn, year-end Dec) | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | 1Q27E | 2Q27E | 3Q27E | 4Q27E | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 8,552 | 8,700 | 10,217 | 11,841 | 12,060 | 12,895 | 14,210 | 14,812 | 23,276 | 39,310 | 53,977 | 64,616 |
| Gross Profit | 2,537 | 2,472 | 3,130 | 3,683 | 3,775 | 4,027 | 4,432 | 4,639 | 6,372 | 11,822 | 16,873 | 20,493 |
| OPEX | (1,017) | (1,082) | (1,185) | (1,372) | (1,399) | (1,494) | (1,648) | (1,716) | (3,113) | (4,656) | (6,257) | (7,490) |
| Operating profit | 1,520 | 1,390 | 1,945 | 2,311 | 2,376 | 2,532 | 2,784 | 2,923 | 3,259 | 7,166 | 10,616 | 13,003 |
| Total Non-OP | 50 | (73) | (24) | (24) | (24) | (24) | (24) | (24) | 19 | (70) | (95) | (95) |
| Pre-tax profit | 1,570 | 1,317 | 1,921 | 2,287 | 2,352 | 2,509 | 2,761 | 2,899 | 3,277 | 7,096 | 10,521 | 12,908 |
| Income tax | (305) | (278) | (359) | (420) | (457) | (487) | (536) | (550) | (580) | (1,362) | (2,029) | (2,481) |
| Net Profit | 1,164 | 969 | 1,512 | 1,817 | 1,846 | 1,972 | 2,175 | 2,299 | 2,572 | 5,462 | 8,292 | 10,227 |
| EPS (NT$) | 12.61 | 10.41 | 16.25 | 19.52 | 19.83 | 21.19 | 23.37 | 24.70 | 28.26 | 58.80 | 89.09 | 109.88 |
| Revenue mix | ||||||||||||
| Server | 76% | 78% | 84% | 86% | 88% | 86% | 85% | 86% | 57% | 82% | 86% | 88% |
| VGA | 6% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 13% | 4% | 3% | 2% |
| NB | 13% | 13% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 20% | 10% | 8% | 7% |
| DT | 4% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Others | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% |
| Margins (%) | ||||||||||||
| Gross profit | 29.7% | 28.4% | 30.6% | 31.1% | 31.3% | 31.2% | 31.2% | 31.3% | 27.4% | 30.1% | 31.3% | 31.7% |
| OPEXtosales | 11.9% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 13.4% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 11.6% |
| Operating Margin | 17.8% | 16.0% | 19.0% | 19.5% | 19.7% | 19.6% | 19.6% | 19.7% | 14.0% | 18.2% | 19.7% | 20.1% |
| Pre-tax profit | 18.4% | 15.1% | 18.8% | 19.3% | 19.5% | 19.5% | 19.4% | 19.6% | 14.1% | 18.0% | 19.5% | 20.0% |
| Net Margin | 13.6% | 11.1% | 14.8% | 15.3% | 15.3% | 15.3% | 15.3% | 15.5% | 11.1% | 13.9% | 15.4% | 15.8% |
| Y/Y | ||||||||||||
| Net sales | 93.7% | 64.0% | 71.5% | 55.9% | 41.0% | 48.2% | 39.1% | 25.1% | 47.5% | 68.9% | 37.3% | 19.7% |
| Gross profit | 109.9% | 78.3% | 76.5% | 83.8% | 48.8% | 62.9% | 41.6% | 26.0% | 43.8% | 62.6% | 35.0% | 18.9% |
| Operating profit | 169.7% | 119.4% | 96.0% | 116.1% | 56.4% | 82.1% | 43.2% | 26.5% | 70.6% | 119.9% | 48.1% | 22.5% |
| Pre-tax profit | 135.6% | 524.9% | 59.5% | 91.3% | 49.8% | 90.4% | 43.7% | 26.8% | 38.5% | 116.5% | 48.3% | 22.7% |
| Net Margin | 127.7% | 512.8% | 55.3% | 95.5% | 58.6% | 103.5% | 43.8% | 26.6% | 35.9% | 112.4% | 51.8% | 23.3% |
| Q/Q | ||||||||||||
| Net sales | 12.6% | 1.7% | 17.4% | 15.9% | 1.9% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 4.2% | ||||
| Gross profit | 26.6% | -2.5% | 26.6% | 17.7% | 2.5% | 6.7% | 10.1% | 4.7% | ||||
| Operating profit | 42.1% | -8.5% | 39.9% | 18.8% | 2.8% | 6.6% | 10.0% | 5.0% | ||||
| Pre-tax profit | 31.3% | -16.1% | 45.9% | 19.0% | 2.9% | 6.6% | 10.0% | 5.0% | ||||
| Net Margin | 25.3% | -16.8% | 56.1% | 20.1% | 1.6% | 6.8% | 10.3% | 5.7% |
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| 3017.TW: Fiscalyearend31-Dec | 3017.TW: Fiscalyearend31-Dec | 3017.TW: Fiscalyearend31-Dec | 3017.TW: Fiscalyearend31-Dec | 3017.TW: Fiscalyearend31-Dec | 3017.TW: Fiscalyearend31-Dec | NT$3,185.00; TP: | NT$4,350.00; | Market Cap: | NT$1,250,654m; | Recomm:Buy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit&Loss(NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | Valuation ratios | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
| Sales revenue | 71,761 | 139,639 | 221,075 | 332,697 | 404,256 | PE(x) | na | 64.8 | 30.2 | 18.3 | 14.8 |
| Cost of sales | -54,891 | -103,605 | -148,912 | -216,636 | -260,811 | PB(x) | 43.2 | 28.3 | 16.1 | 8.6 | 5.5 |
| Gross profit | 16,870 | 36,034 | 72,163 | 116,061 | 143,445 | EV/EBITDA(x) | 96.8 | 40.6 | 18.6 | 10.9 | 8.3 |
| Gross Margin (%) | 23.5 | 25.8 | 32.6 | 34.9 | 35.5 | FCFyield (%) | 0.4 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 7.0 |
| EBITDA(Adj) | 12,810 | 30,314 | 64,516 | 104,936 | 128,982 | Dividend yield (%) | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 2.4 |
| EBITDAMargin(Adj) (%) | 17.9 | 21.7 | 29.2 | 31.5 | 31.9 | Payout ratio (%) | 32 | 20 | 20 | 26 | 35 |
| Depreciation | -1,988 | -2,759 | -4,084 | -5,954 | -6,114 | ROE(%) | 32.1 | 52.2 | 67.0 | 60.2 | 44.6 |
| Amortisation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Cashflow(NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
| EBIT (Adj) | 10,823 | 27,556 | 60,432 | 98,982 | 122,868 | EBITDA | 12,810 | 30,314 | 64,516 | 104,936 | 128,982 |
| EBIT Margin (Adj) (%) | 15.1 | 19.7 | 27.3 | 29.8 | 30.4 | Working capital | 333 | 730 | -1,188 | 0 | 0 |
| Net interest | 114 | 91 | 756 | 1,021 | 1,021 | Other | -3,511 | 8,371 | 5,873 | -7,496 | -23,452 |
| Associates | -291 | -483 | -44 | 0 | 0 | Operating cashflow | 9,632 | 39,415 | 69,202 | 97,440 | 105,530 |
| Non-Op/Except/Other Adj | 1,707 | 1,623 | 216 | 0 | 0 | Capex | -4,540 | -7,267 | -14,612 | -17,000 | -18,000 |
| Pre-tax profit | 12,352 | 28,786 | 61,360 | 100,004 | 123,889 | Net acq/disposals | -3,286 | -5,976 | -4,563 | 0 | 0 |
| Tax | -3,159 | -7,836 | -16,559 | -26,526 | -33,212 | Other | 157 | -93 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Extraord./Min.Int./Pref.div. | -1,020 | -1,764 | -3,337 | -5,271 | -6,101 | Investing cashflow | -7,669 | -13,336 | -19,175 | -17,000 | -18,000 |
| Reported net profit | 8,172 | 19,186 | 41,464 | 68,207 | 84,576 | Dividends paid | -2,667 | -3,855 | -8,364 | -18,075 | -29,733 |
| Net Margin (%) | 11.4 | 13.7 | 18.8 | 20.5 | 20.9 | Financing cashflow | 200 | 2,620 | -4,016 | -3,169 | 1,432 |
| CoreNPAT | 8,172 | 19,186 | 41,464 | 68,207 | 84,576 | Net change in cash | 2,967 | 28,606 | 46,011 | 77,271 | 88,962 |
| Per share data | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | Free cashflow to s/holders | 5,092 | 32,148 | 54,590 | 80,440 | 87,530 |
| Reported EPS($) | 21.21 | 49.17 | 105.62 | 173.74 | 215.43 | ||||||
| Core EPS($) | 21.21 | 49.17 | 105.62 | 173.74 | 215.43 | ||||||
| DPS($) | 6.87 | 9.68 | 21.27 | 45.97 | 75.62 | ||||||
| CFPS($) | 25.00 | 101.02 | 176.28 | 248.20 | 268.81 | ||||||
| FCFPS($) | 13.22 | 82.39 | 139.06 | 204.90 | 222.96 | ||||||
| BVPS($) | 73.68 | 112.45 | 197.98 | 368.53 | 580.00 | ||||||
| Wtdavgordshares(m) | 385 | 390 | 393 | 393 | 393 | ||||||
| Wtdavgdiluted shares (m) | 385 | 390 | 393 | 393 | 393 | ||||||
| Growthrates | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | ||||||
| Sales revenue (%) | 21.2 | 94.6 | 58.3 | 50.5 | 21.5 | ||||||
| EBIT (Adj) (%) | 45.8 | 154.6 | 119.3 | 63.8 | 24.1 | ||||||
| CoreNPAT(%) | 54.1 | 134.8 | 116.1 | 64.5 | 24.0 | ||||||
| CoreEPS(%) | 50.4 | 131.8 | 114.8 | 64.5 | 24.0 | ||||||
| BalanceSheet(NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | ||||||
| Cash&cashequiv. | 29,924 | 58,530 | 104,541 | 181,812 | 270,774 | ||||||
| Accounts receivables | 7,767 | 12,133 | 12,384 | 19,973 | 23,446 | ||||||
| Inventory | 33,397 | 49,572 | 71,877 | 107,927 | 124,436 | ||||||
| Net fixed &other tangibles | 22,481 | 33,074 | 48,667 | 58,858 | 69,865 | ||||||
| Goodwill &intangibles | 169 | 195 | 243 | 243 | 243 | ||||||
| Financial &other assets | 6,168 | 6,633 | 6,979 | 10,760 | 12,490 | ||||||
| Total assets | 99,906 | 160,137 | 244,691 | 379,573 | 501,255 | ||||||
| Accounts payable | 28,884 | 48,109 | 66,135 | 99,881 | 115,335 | ||||||
| Short-term debt | 13,130 | 16,311 | 19,007 | 19,007 | 19,007 | ||||||
| Long-term debt | 3,349 | 6,949 | 6,917 | 3,748 | 5,180 | ||||||
| Provisions &other liab | 21,070 66,433 | 38,203 | 64,657 | 95,485 | 109,604 | ||||||
| Total liabilities | 109,572 | 156,717 | 218,122 | 249,127 | |||||||
| Shareholders' equity | 28,871 4,602 | 44,601 | 79,178 | 147,385 14,067 | 231,961 20,167 | ||||||
| Minority interests Total equity | 33,473 | 5,964 50,565 | 8,796 87,974 | ||||||||
| -13,445 | -35,270 | -78,616 | 161,451 | 252,128 | |||||||
| Net debt (Adj) | -159,056 | -246,586 | |||||||||
| Net debt to equity (Adj) (%) | -40.2 | -69.8 | -89.4 | -98.5 | -97.8 | ||||||
| For definitions of the items in this table, | please click here. |
Prepared for [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
| 3324.TWO:Fiscalyearend31-Dec | Price: | NT$1,385.00; TP: NT$1,800.00; Market Cap: NT$128,911m; Recomm:Buy | NT$1,385.00; TP: NT$1,800.00; Market Cap: NT$128,911m; Recomm:Buy | NT$1,385.00; TP: NT$1,800.00; Market Cap: NT$128,911m; Recomm:Buy | NT$1,385.00; TP: NT$1,800.00; Market Cap: NT$128,911m; Recomm:Buy | NT$1,385.00; TP: NT$1,800.00; Market Cap: NT$128,911m; Recomm:Buy | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit&Loss(NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | Valuation ratios | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
| Sales revenue | 15,779 | 23,276 | 39,310 | 53,977 | 64,616 | PE(x) | 65.2 | 49.0 | 23.6 | 15.5 | 12.6 |
| Cost of sales | -11,753 | -16,904 | -27,488 | -37,104 | -44,123 | PB(x) | 14.4 | 11.8 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 3.9 |
| Gross profit | 4,026 | 6,372 | 11,822 | 16,873 | 20,493 | EV/EBITDA(x) | 53.1 | 33.1 | 16.3 | 11.1 | 9.0 |
| Gross Margin (%) | 25.5 | 27.4 | 30.1 | 31.3 | 31.7 | FCFyield (%) | 0.2 | -2.2 | -1.3 | 2.8 | 4.2 |
| EBITDA(Adj) | 2,420 | 3,931 | 8,145 | 11,898 | 14,242 | Dividend yield (%) | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 2.8 |
| EBITDAMargin(Adj) (%) | 15.3 | 16.9 | 20.7 | 22.0 | 22.0 | Payout ratio (%) | 29 | 35 | 20 | 29 | 35 |
| Depreciation | -509 | -672 | -979 | -1,282 | -1,239 | ROE(%) | 24.3 | 25.7 | 39.5 | 40.0 | 34.1 |
| Amortisation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Cashflow(NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
| EBIT (Adj) | 1,911 | 3,259 | 7,166 | 10,616 | 13,003 | EBITDA | 2,420 | 3,931 | 8,145 | 11,898 | 14,242 |
| EBIT Margin (Adj) (%) | 12.1 | 14.0 | 18.2 | 19.7 | 20.1 | Working capital | -85 | -82 | -81 | 0 | 0 |
| Net interest | 9 | -34 | -95 | -95 | -95 | Other | -692 | -4,420 | -6,187 | -5,043 | -5,628 |
| Associates | -21 | -45 | -26 | 0 | 0 | Operating cashflow | 1,643 | -571 | 1,877 | 6,855 | 8,614 |
| Non-Op/Except/Other Adj | 468 | 97 | 51 | 0 | 0 | Capex | -1,436 | -2,234 | -3,577 | -3,200 | -3,200 |
| Pre-tax profit | 2,366 | 3,277 | 7,096 | 10,521 | 12,908 | Net acq/disposals | -285 | -191 | -274 | 0 | 0 |
| Tax | -434 | -580 | -1,362 | -2,029 | -2,481 | Other | 154 | -269 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Extraord./Min.Int./Pref.div. | -39 | -126 | -271 | -200 | -200 | Investing cashflow | -1,567 | -2,695 | -3,851 | -3,200 | -3,200 |
| Reported net profit | 1,893 | 2,572 | 5,462 | 8,292 | 10,227 | Dividends paid | -568 | -918 | -1,117 | -2,372 | -3,601 |
| Net Margin (%) | 12.0 | 11.1 | 13.9 | 15.4 | 15.8 | Financing cashflow | 1,364 | 1,950 | 5,715 | 1,731 | 1,794 |
| CoreNPAT | 1,893 | 2,572 | 5,462 | 8,292 | 10,227 | Net change in cash | 1,443 | -1,370 | 3,741 | 5,386 | 7,208 |
| Per share data | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | Free cashflow to s/holders | 208 | -2,805 | -1,700 | 3,655 | 5,414 |
| Reported EPS($) | 21.23 | 28.26 | 58.80 | 89.09 | 109.88 | ||||||
| Core EPS($) | 21.23 | 28.26 | 58.80 | 89.09 | 109.88 | ||||||
| DPS($) | 6.19 | 9.86 | 12.00 | 25.48 | 38.68 | ||||||
| CFPS($) | 18.43 | -6.27 | 20.20 | 73.65 | 92.55 | ||||||
| 2.33 | -30.81 | -18.30 | 39.27 | 58.17 | |||||||
| FCFPS($) BVPS($) | 96.41 | 117.63 | 166.36 | 249.49 | 352.02 | ||||||
| Wtdavgordshares(m) | 89.2 | 91.0 | 92.9 | 93.1 | 93.1 | ||||||
| Wtdavgdiluted shares (m) | 89.2 | 91.0 | 92.9 | 93.1 | 93.1 | ||||||
| Growthrates | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | ||||||
| Sales revenue (%) | 24.1 | 47.5 | 68.9 | 37.3 | 19.7 | ||||||
| EBIT (Adj) (%) | 38.8 | 70.6 | 119.9 | 48.1 | 22.5 | ||||||
| CoreNPAT(%) | 53.6 | 35.9 | 112.4 | 51.8 | 23.3 | ||||||
| CoreEPS(%) | 48.6 | 33.1 | 108.1 | 51.5 | 23.3 | ||||||
| BalanceSheet(NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | ||||||
| Cash&cashequiv. | 2,809 | 1,439 | 5,180 | 10,567 | 17,775 | ||||||
| Accounts receivables | 5,429 | 10,068 | 14,859 | 18,358 | 21,966 | ||||||
| Inventory | 2,810 | 6,057 | 10,309 | 12,699 | 15,069 | ||||||
| Net fixed &other tangibles | 4,641 | 6,610 | 9,353 | 11,325 | 13,341 | ||||||
| Goodwill &intangibles | 212 | 197 | 239 | 239 | 239 | ||||||
| Financial &other assets | 1,026 | 1,753 | 2,743 | 3,168 | 3,608 | ||||||
| Total assets | 16,926 | 26,125 | 42,683 | 56,356 | 71,998 | ||||||
| Accounts payable | 3,775 | 7,594 | 9,712 | 12,088 | 14,443 | ||||||
| Short-term debt | 475 | 2,678 | 2,133 | 2,133 | 2,133 | ||||||
| Long-term debt | 1,675 | 2,021 | 8,071 | 9,802 | 11,597 | ||||||
| Provisions &other liab | 1,713 | 2,337 | 5,486 | 6,560 | 7,625 | ||||||
| 7,638 | 14,630 | 25,401 | 30,583 | 35,798 | |||||||
| Total liabilities | 8,961 | 11,085 | 16,593 | 24,885 | 35,112 | ||||||
| Shareholders' equity Minority interests | 327 | 410 | 688 | 888 | 1,088 | ||||||
| Total equity | 9,288 | 11,494 | 17,282 | 25,773 | 36,200 | ||||||
| Net debt (Adj) | -659 | 3,260 | 5,024 | 1,369 | -4,045 | ||||||
| Net debt to equity (Adj) (%) | -7.1 | ||||||||||
| For definitions of the items in this table, | please click here. | 28.4 | 29.1 | 5.3 | -11.2 |
NT$
5,004
4,170
3,336
2,502
1,668
834
Sep 25 Oct 25
77 457% Upside.
NT$ 4,350.00
4 37% Upside
NT$ 2,000.00
• 37% Downside
Bull/Bear: Asia Vital Components (3017.TW)
• NT$4,350.00
BASE Assumptions
• Sales to grow by 58% y-o-y in 2026E, followed by 50% у-o-y growth in 2027E; OPM at 27.3-29.8%
• Target multiple at 25x
BEAR Assumptions
{j. Sales to grow by 20%/10% y-o-y in 2026E/27E with OPM at 18.0%
- Target multiple at 20x
Prepared for [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
NT$
2,004
1,670
1,336
1,002
668
Sep 25 Oct 25
47 < 44% Upside.
NT$ 1,800.00
4 30% Upside
NT$ 800.00
• 42% Downside
Bull/Bear: Auras Technology (3324.TWO)
BASE Assumptions
• Sales to grow by 69% YoY in 2026E, followed by 37% YoY growth in 2027E; OPM estimated at 18.2-19.7%
• Target multiple at 20x
BEAR Assumptions
C. Sales to grow by 15% YoY in 2026E-27E with OPM at 12%
- Target multiple at 15x
Prepared for [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
Prepared for [讀者資訊已遮蔽]
Asia Vital Components
Company description
Asia Vital Components (AVC), founded in 1991, is a global leader in thermal solutions, originally focusing on PCs but now specializing in servers and networking. With Furukawa Electric (Japan) as its largest shareholder, AVC provides a comprehensive range of cooling components, including vapor chambers (VCs), fans, cold plates, CDUs, and manifolds, as well as chassis and assembly services for PCs and servers, enabling holistic thermal solution designs and one-stop shop services. AVC's diverse product portfolio supports various sectors, including consumer IT, cloud infrastructure, transportation, energy and networking.
Investment strategy
We rate AVC a Buy. AVC is well-positioned for the liquid-cooling transition, with leadership in cold plates and broad participation across Nvidia and CSP projects. Its high-volume machining capability, manufacturing uniformity, and Vietnam-based capacity provide it with a defensible position as Blackwell and future deployments expand. The company captures a wider share of the thermal BOM, across coldplates, manifolds, QDs, and CDU opportunities, providing a multi-layered earnings engine.
Valuation
We value AVC using a PE-based approach that factors in earnings momentum and the expansion of its addressable market. Our TP of NT$4,350 is derived from applying a 25x PE multiple on 2027E EPS, which we believe is justified given the company's entrenched positioned in the server thermal segment, rising contribution from liquid cooling, and the increasing value of thermal content per server as power density continues to climb. With these structural drivers still in place, we expect the multiple to hold at a premium relative to its historical averages.
Risks
This stock is High Risk based upon our quantitative model but assigning a High Risk rating is not supported by other qualitative factors such as coldplate leadership and deep CSP penetration, and so a High Risk rating has not been applied. Key downside risks to our investment thesis and target price include: 1) slower adoption pace for liquid cooling adoption; 2) heightened price competition; 3) lower-than-expected share in liquid cooling components; and 4) emerging alternative cooling technologies.
Auras Technology
Company description
Auras Technology was founded in 1998 and focused on the design and manufacturing of thermal modules for NB/PCs. It quickly became one of Taiwan's top two NB cooling component suppliers. Early products included heatsinks, fins, heat pipes, and fans for NBs, PCs, and smartphones. As device form factor evolved, the company invested in new technologies such
Prepared for [讀者資訊已遮蔽] as ultra-thin vapor chamber in the 2000s to address the thermal challenges of increasingly compact consumer electronics. During the 2010s, Auras expanded into graphic card and server cooling and was an early adopter of liquid cooling technology. By 2012, the company had begun developing liquid cooling component and was among the first Taiwanese firms to venture into AI server liquid cooling.
Investment strategy
We rate Auras a Buy. Auras is emerging as a key liquid-cooling supplier as hyperscalers expand deployment. The company has secured qualifications for cold plates and manifolds, opening access to a wider slate of Nvidia and CSP projects. Thailand-based production offers non-China capacity at a scale aligned with hyperscaler sourcing plans, allowing Auras to compete more effectively for next-generation products.
Valuation
We value Auras using a PE-based approach, reflecting its accelerating earnings trajectory and rising share in liquid cooling market of AI servers. Our TP of NT$1,800 is based on 20x 2027E EPS, which we believe is justified given the company's expanding server revenue base, deeper engagement with CSP customers, and broader product portfolio across cold plates, CDMs, and CDUs.
Risks
This stock is High Risk based upon our quantitative model, but assigning a High Risk rating is not supported in our view by other qualitative factors such as rapid RVL progress and Thailand expansion, and so a High Risk rating has not been applied. Key downside risks to our investment thesis and target price include: 1) slower adoption of liquid cooling; 2) heightened price competition; 3) lower-than-expected share in liquid cooling components; and 4) emerging alternative cooling technologies.
Analyst: Michael Hung
TWD
3,000
2,000
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Date
Appendix A-1
*Indicates Change