PDF 原檔：報告_OCP2026_IDTechEx_量子運算市場2026_20261015_original.pdf
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| 檔名 | 頁 | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
報告_OCP2026_IDTechEx_量子運算市場2026_20261015_p6.png |
p6 | 真資料圖 | 堆疊長條圖：2010–2026 全球量子電腦業者數（依超導、離子、中性原子、光量子、矽自旋等分色）與每年新進者折線；新進者 2019 年約 16 家達高點，2026 年約 1 家，總數約 97 家 |
報告_OCP2026_IDTechEx_量子運算市場2026_20261015_p12.png |
p12 | 文字卡 | 四欄需求表（冷卻、雜訊、通訊、電力）：問題與解法，如乾式冷凍機、銅製多層屏蔽、ADC／機架內建、低雜訊電源含備援 |
報告_OCP2026_IDTechEx_量子運算市場2026_20261015_p17.png |
p17 | 真資料圖 | 量子電腦硬體年營收長條圖（含基礎設施的整機）：2027 年極小、2037 年超過 80 億美元（CAGR 31%）、2047 年超過 290 億美元（CAGR 22%） |
原始內容
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Quantum Computing Market in 2026: Trends, Opportunities, and Challenges Noah El Alami Senior Technology Analyst - IDTechEx
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Who are IDTechEx? Reports | Subscriptions | Consulting | Journals | Webinars • Technology assessment • Technology scouting • Company profiling • Market sizing • Market forecasts • Strategic advice Since 1999 IDTechEx has provided independent market research, consultancy and subscriptions on emerging technology to clients in over 80 countries.
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Overview of the Quantum Technology Market The quantum technology market can be segmented into: 1. Quantum computing 2. Quantum communications 3. Quantum sensing Today’s presentation will focus on: 1. The Quantum Computing Market Landscape • Technology approaches (qubit modalities) • Key trends for 2026 2. Opportunities & Challenges for QC Data Centers 3. Market Outlook for Quantum Computing Quantum Computing Quantum Communications Quantum Sensing Quantum Technologies
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Different Approaches to Building a Commercial Quantum Computer Superconducting Photonic Trapped Ion Neutral Atom Commercialized approaches to building a universal quantum computer: + many more…
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Different Approaches to Building a Commercial Quantum Computer Superconducting Photonic Trapped Ion Neutral Atom Diamond Defect Topological Annealing/Analog Silicon Spin Commercialized approaches to building a universal quantum computer: Alternative approaches to quantum computing: Superior scalability on a single chip? Reduced infrastructure? Closer to advantage? Note: non-exhaustive lists of players Others/Hybrids + many more…
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0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 No. of new entrants by year Total no. of QC players Number of Quantum Computing Players by Founding Year, by Modality, and No. of New Entrants Each Year Superconducting Trapped Ion Neutral Atom Photonic Silicon Spin Diamond Defect Topological Annealer Other New entrants No. of New Quantum Computing Players has Saturated Since 2019 New entrants peaked in 2019
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• D-Wave acquires Quantum Circuits Inc – the leader in quantum annealers acquiring a (universal gate-based) superconducting qubit startup. • IBM acquires HRL Laboratories – the superconducting qubit giant acquiring a leading research laboratory in the development of silicon-spin qubits. • Microsoft and Google have been long-term backers/partners of quantum computing startups developing qubit modalities different to their own in-house projects Spreading Bets Over Multiple Approaches? acquired acquired partnership investor investor
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QC Startup Qubit Modality Ticker IPO Date Quantum Computing Inc Photonic QUBT 2021 IonQ Trapped Ion IONQ 2021 Rigetti Superconducting RGTI 2022 D-Wave Annealing QBTS 2022 2026: the Year Quantum Goes Public *This list contains only “pure- play” companies with a primary focus on developing quantum computing hardware.
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QC Startup Qubit Modality Ticker IPO Date Quantum Computing Inc Photonic QUBT 2021 IonQ Trapped Ion IONQ 2021 Rigetti Superconducting RGTI 2022 D-Wave Annealing QBTS 2022 Infleqtion Neutral Atom INFQ February 2026 Xanadu Photonic XNDU March 2026 IQM Superconducting IQMX July 2026 Quantinuum Trapped Ion QNT June 2026 Pasqal Neutral Atom PSQL August 2026 SeeQC Superconducting SEQC 2026 (planned) 2026: the Year Quantum Goes Public Multiple different vendors for 4 universal quantum computing modalities + quantum annealers Number of public pure-play QC companies more than doubled by the end of 2026 This list contains only “pure- play” companies with a primary focus on developing quantum computing hardware. + Origin Quantum, Qboson, Ciqtek and TuringQ registering to IPO on Shanghai’s STAR market in last 12 months
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The Opportunity: Growing the number of quantum computers accessible via the cloud through “Quantum as a Service” Opportunities & Challenges for Quantum Computing Data Centers
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The Challenge: New infrastructure demands and sensitive equipment Opportunities & Challenges for Quantum Computing Data Centers Cooling Requirement Noise Communication Power
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The Challenge: New infrastructure demands and sensitive equipment Opportunities & Challenges for Quantum Computing Data Centers Use of liquid cryogens for mK temperatures is expensive and new Closed/dry cryostats, self-calibrating systems, room temp qubits? Cooling Solutions Problem High sensitivity to, RF, microwave and magnetic fields Multiple levels of shielding around a quantum computer – typically copper boxes Noise Communication with classical systems is essential Analogue to digital converters, server racks built-in to the quantum computer enclosure Communication Disruption can decohere qubits or damage equipment Consistent, low-noise power supply with backup systems Power Requirement
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The Challenge: New infrastructure demands and sensitive equipment Opportunities & Challenges for Quantum Computing Data Centers Use of liquid cryogens for mK temperatures is expensive and new Cooling Solutions Problem High sensitivity to, RF, microwave and magnetic fields Multiple levels of shielding around a quantum computer – typically copper boxes Noise Communication with classical systems is essential Analogue to digital converters, server racks built-in to the quantum computer enclosure Communication Pain Points • Complex, unfamiliar • Large footprint • Expensive • Limited supply chain Disruption can decohere qubits or damage equipment Consistent, low-noise power supply with backup systems Power Requirement Closed/dry cryostats, self-calibrating systems, room temp qubits?
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Our Quantum Computing Hardware Forecast Methodology Annual unit sales & revenue Convert TAM to install base of systems Match to known deployments today Forecasting TAM over time Core assumption: QC TAM will grow with capability
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Our Quantum Computing Hardware Forecast Methodology Capability & Commercial Value QCRL Paradigm Product Approx. logical/physical qubit no. 1 NISQ Education-only tool. 0 logical, <10 physical 2 Early Use-case development tool. 0 logical, 10s physical 3 Advanced use-case development tool. State-of-the-art today 1-10 logical, 100s-1000s physical 4 FTQC Computer for application-specific commercial deployment. 100s logical, 1000s-10,000s physical 5 Computer for versatile deployment but at a premium. 100s-1000s logical 6 Affordable for cloud access where there is a clear business case. 1000s logical 7 FTQC+ (long-term future) Quantum computing hardware affordable for cloud platforms or on- premises. Thousands-millions of logical qubits depending on use case and application requirements 8 Quantum computing hardware in high-end consumer PCs. 9 Quantum computing hardware in high-end consumer phones. 10 Quantum computing hardware is utilized in most computers.
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Our Quantum Computing Hardware Forecast Methodology Annual unit sales & revenue Convert TAM to install base of systems Match to known deployments today Forecasting TAM over time Core assumption: QC TAM will grow with capability
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0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 2027 2037 2047 Annual Revenue from Quantum Computer Hardware* Sales, 2027-2047 (USD, Millions) Our Quantum Computing Hardware Forecast Methodology Annual unit sales & revenue Convert TAM to install base of systems Match to known deployments today Forecasting TAM over time Core assumption: QC TAM will grow with capability CAGR 31% CAGR 22%
8.0B USD 29B USD *full systems, incl. infrastructure
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Enabling Industries & End-User Industries • Vital for ecosystem building & highlights geographical strengths Enabling industries • Semiconductors • Photonics • Nanomaterials • Electronics • Thermal management End user industries • Chemical • Automotive • Aerospace • Healthcare & Pharma • Finance How do we get different sectors to align on quantum?
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Key Takeaways for the Quantum Computing Market in 2026 • A range of different hardware approaches, “qubit modalities”, are surprisingly close in technical progress. • The number of new entrants has mostly saturated, but several startups are going/have gone public this year. • Some major players are diversifying across multiple approaches. Competition Between Different Qubit Modalities • The primary business model for quantum computers is through centralized cloud access – quantum-enabled data centers grow this model. • New infrastructure demand is a challenge for quantum computing deployment. Quantum Computers in Data Centers • Success of quantum computing requires cooperation with enabling industries (infrastructure, supply chain), and end-user industries. • Based on the addressable markets, a multi-billion industry in the 2030s and multi-10 billion industry by the 2040s is possible. Market Outlook for Quantum Computing Quantum Computing Market 2026-2046: Technology, Trends, Players, Forecasts www.IDTechEx.com/QuantumComputing Connect with IDTechEx: research@IDTechEx.com NEW 2027-2047 version coming very soon
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Key Takeaways for the Quantum Computing Market in 2026 • A range of different hardware approaches, “qubit modalities”, are surprisingly close in technical progress. • The number of new entrants has mostly saturated, but several startups are going/have gone public this year. • Some major players are diversifying across multiple approaches. Competition Between Different Qubit Modalities • The primary business model for quantum computers is through centralized cloud access – quantum-enabled data centers grow this model. • New infrastructure demand is a challenge for quantum computing deployment. Quantum Computers in Data Centers • Success of quantum computing requires cooperation with enabling industries (infrastructure, supply chain), and end-user industries. • Based on the addressable markets, a multi-billion industry in the 2030s and multi-10 billion industry by the 2040s is possible. Market Outlook for Quantum Computing Quantum Computing Market 2026-2046: Technology, Trends, Players, Forecasts www.IDTechEx.com/QuantumComputing Connect with IDTechEx: research@IDTechEx.com NEW 2027-2047 version coming very soon
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Key Takeaways for the Quantum Computing Market in 2026 • A range of different hardware approaches, “qubit modalities”, are surprisingly close in technical progress. • The number of new entrants has mostly saturated, but several startups are going/have gone public this year. • Some major players are diversifying across multiple approaches. Competition Between Different Qubit Modalities • The primary business model for quantum computers is through centralized cloud access – quantum-enabled data centers grow this model. • New infrastructure demand is a challenge for quantum computing deployment. Quantum Computers in Data Centers • Success of quantum computing requires cooperation with enabling industries (infrastructure, supply chain), and end-user industries. • Based on the addressable markets, a multi-billion industry in the 2030s and multi-10 billion industry by the 2040s is possible. Market Outlook for Quantum Computing Quantum Computing Market 2026-2046: Technology, Trends, Players, Forecasts www.IDTechEx.com/QuantumComputing Connect with IDTechEx: research@IDTechEx.com NEW 2027-2047 version coming very soon
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