報告_MS_雲端半導體_20260722

PDF 原檔：報告_MS_雲端半導體_20260722_original.pdf

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原始內容

M July 22, 2026 10:25 PM GMT

Greater China Semiconductors | Asia Pacific

Cloud Semis: Unlikely to slow down

We expect both CPU and GPU server TAM to expand into 2027. We reiterate our OW ratings on both Aspeed and Montage into earnings; accumulate into cloud capex prints.

Key Takeaways

• Our recent China World AI Congress trip suggests ongoing upside for CPU servers, from both China and US vendors.
• The more diversified scale-up solutions for GPU servers in 2027 should translate into strong cloud semis growth.
• Better product mix should support the high GMs for both Aspeed and Montage.

CPU server segment showing more upside, especially in China: We maintain our bull thesis (Cloud semis: Much Larger TAM Ahead) and expect further upside. In our July 17-20 Shanghai WAIC trip, we noted increasing adoption of AMD, Nvidia and Hygon solutions. AMD's multicore benefits, Nvidia's Vera bundle sales strategy, and Hygon's government support and performance catch-up with legacy 6 gen Intel CPU are now attracting increasing orders (see Hygon initiation). High-end x86 CPU pricing continued to trend up in China, nearly 2x Y/Y.

GPU servers strong, with potentially more SuperPods solutions: Almost every domestic GPU vendor displayed a 64- or 128-card scale-up system. Chinese AI GPUs are limited by wafer production/supply at the chip level, but try to connect each GPU together (WAIC note). Nvidia could also have a greater variety of racks in 2027 (see Joe Moore's Nvidia NDR note). We believe SuperPods could be one of the solutions, connecting multiple racks with optics (multi-racks scale-up). Kimi K3 also demonstrated the Nvidia GPU importance in training.

Margin likely to be maintained at high levels: We think cloud semis vendors will benefit from spec migration, driven by strong high-performance server demand. Gross margins for the new solutions (e.g., AST 2700 BMC, legacy BMC with software offering and DDR5 gen 3 interface) are usually higher than that of the prior solutions, which could help offset the higher cost burden, especially from OSAT.

Buy into cloud capex earnings; OW Aspeed and Montage: We believe the upcoming cloud capex announcements could see meaningful upward revision, mainly for memory, but also yielding positive signs for cloud semis companies. We factor in share dividend impact and cut our Aspeed price target, by 11%, to NT $20,888. We think the Korean government's investigation (see results note) offers a good entry point for Montage.

Idea

Greater China Technology Semiconductors

Asia Pacific

Industry View

Attractive

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For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.

+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

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Key charts

Idea

The baseboard management controller (BMC) integrated circuit (IC) (i.e., a specialized microchip) is the key component on the server board. It helps enable remote control for the server firmware system and maintain datacenter stability. Previously, Aspeed indicated that general servers and AI ASIC servers actually generate higher efficiency in hyperscaler capex spending ( Exhibit 1 ). As a result, as the CPU plays a critical role in enabling agentic AI (as the central coordinator that executes instructions, manages system resources, and ensures reliable, real-time decision-making), we expect the growing demand for CPUs/ general servers to further lift Aspeed's BMC revenue in the coming years.

Currently, Aspeed has ~70% sales market share in the CPU server BMC market, with major US and Chinese hyperscalers being its end-customers, including Meta, AWS, Alibaba and Microsoft. As it migrates into the new generation BMC product - AST2700 - we expect it to expand its market share in customers including Dell and Google, which would help expand its revenue, as spec migration also brings 40-50% ASP increase.

Exhibit 1: General servers and AI ASIC servers generate the highest capex efficiency for BMCs

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research. Note: Capex efficiency is defined as the amount of server spend that will contribute to one BMC demand. The lower the capex efficiency, the better for Aspeed.

Aspeed, in April, announced an increase in its BMC TAM, from 46.5mn to 65.77mn units in 2030, driven by AI-related general server demand. We think agentic AI will be the key driving force behind this growth. General server growth should be stable at 6% over 2025-30, while AI-related general servers should account for: 1) 25% of total 2026 general server demand; 2) 45% in 2027; and 3) 20% throughout 2028-30 (see Exhibit 29 ).

On the order visibility front, customers began providing forecasts at 7-8x Aspeed's singlemonth revenue. Although Aspeed could not roll out any double booking, the current dynamic is that shipments are well beyond all customers' needs. Customers also expect to double capacity Y/Y in 2027.

70

60

1/0 Expander

50

BIC

40

30

20

10

Cupola360

PFR

AVolP

dounpou annot naadeu

BMC

BMC TAM Forecast Revised

Delivering quantum-resilient OCP Caliptra security across the entire

BIC

BMC

PFR

AST2600

AST2700

Ramp-up

Design-in Phase

AST2700

Production-ready

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AST1700

Design-in Phase

AST1040

Caliptra v2.1

AST1630 AST1532

AST1530

& AST1535

Ramp-up

Ramp-up

Dual Chips

AST1235

2026

Ramp-up

AST1080

2027

2028

Caliptra v2.1

Ramp-up

BMC for General Server

2023

• BMC for Al-related General Server

2024

Note : 1) BMC for General Servers will grow at 6% CAGR.

Exhibit 2: Aspeed expects its BMC TAM to reach 65.7mn units in 2030

Production-ready

Ramp-up

New BIC

Design-in Phase

Caliptra v3.x AST1540 Production-ready

• New PFR
• 2029 2030 Caliptra v3.x

• BMC for GPU Server

2025

2) BMC for Al-related General Servers is estimated to be 8.5 million in 2026, with 45% growth rate in 2027 and 20% thereafter.

2026

2027

2028

3) BMC for GPU servers and Al ASIC servers in 2026 is based on the estimate of GPU and Al ASIC shipment and the server architecture.

4) Assuming BMC for GPU Servers grow at 45% in 2027 and 20% afterwards. We also include BMCs for ICMS here.

5) Assuming BMC for Al ASIC Servers grow at 45% in 2027 and 20% afterwards.

Source: Aspeed

Exhibit 3: Aspeed's product roadmap

Source: Aspeed

Exhibit 4: Aspeed Product Roadmap

Source: Aspeed

• BMC for Al ASIC Server

AST2700

Ramp-up

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Idea

Exhibit 5: Server-related companies maintain high Y/Y revenue growth - but slowing a bit because of a high base

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research. Note: Monthly revenue includes revenue from Aspeed, Wiwynn, Accton, Lotes, Inventec, Quanta, LandMark, Giga-Byte, TSMC, KYEC, AllRing, FOCI, AVC, Auras, Gold Circuit, Unimicron, and Hon Hai.

Exhibit 6: Full-year processor exports increased 68% y/y in 2025

Source: International Trade Administration, Morgan Stanley Research.

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Exhibit 7: Processor exports maintain strength, with 20 consecutive months of Y/Y growth

Source: International Trade Administration, Morgan Stanley Research.

Exhibit 8: Data center construction spending rose 35% Y/Y while other office spending declined

Source: United States Census Bureau, Morgan Stanley Research.

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Exhibit 9: 1Q26 US cloud capex increased 64% Y/Y, maintaining a level similar to the 65% Y/Y rise in 3Q25

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research. US cloud capex calculated from Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.

Exhibit 10: Post-US hyperscaler C1Q26 earnings, our cloud capex tracker is now pointing to 92% Y/Y growth in 2026, up 5ppt from the prior forecast of +87% Y/Y in late March 2026

Top 14 Cloud Providers: Cloud Capex Y/Y Growth

Source: Company data, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research. Note: Cloud capex includes capex from Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, CoreWeave, Apple, IBM, Nebius, IREN, Tesla and Oracle. We start to include CRWV from 2024.

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Idea

Exhibit 11: Cumulatively, the top 14 cloud players are expected to devote US$916bn to capex in 2026 (MSe), up from US$476bn in 2025

Source: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research (E) estimates. Note: ORCL forecasts not updated following latest earnings.

Exhibit 12: With stronger cloud capex now expected in 2026, overall capital intensity is now exceeding 31%, a new all-time high

Source: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research (E) estimates. Note: Dark blue bars based on consensus estimates, light blue bar based on MSe. ORCL forecasts not updated following latest earnings.

200.0%

150.0%

100.0%

50.0%

0.0%

-50.0%

-100.0%

1Q22

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Exhibit 13: Quarterly Aspeed shipments Y/Y and Intel + AMD CPU shipments Y/Y

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (E) estimates.

--Aspeed BMC shipment Y/Y

Intel server CPU shipment Y/Y

Idea

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Gauging the AI ASIC BMC TAM

Aspeed maintains the lion's share in AI servers, including at NVIDIA, AMD and Trainium. Google TPU has long used MCUs for remote control. Starting with TPUv8t (codename: Sunfish), given better performance, we expect Google to adopt Aspeed's AST2700 BMC controller. Together with our latest updates on 2027e CoWoS and implied ASIC shipment, we estimate an additional 4% revenue contribution in 2026 and 14% in 2027.

Together with other ASICs (mainly TPU, MTIA, and Teton), we expect ASIC racks to contribute 10% and 21% of Aspeed's total revenue in 2026 and 2027, respectively. Further upside potential could come as orders beyond 2026 remain uncertain for now, and other ASIC players - including Microsoft, SoftBank/Arm, Apple, and Fujitsu - all plan to build ASIC servers in the coming years.

We therefore expect AI ASIC servers to strengthen Aspeed's growth over the next few years.

Exhibit 14: Gauging the ASIC TAM for Aspeed: We expect 2026-27 to see ASIC racks contribute respective 10% and 21% of its total revenue

Source: Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates

Exhibit 15: We estimate AWS's Trainium/Teton racks will contribute 5% and 5.1% of TAM revenue in 2026 and 2027, respectively

Source: Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates

camoll 1o.

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Exhibit 16: AWS Trainium3 UltraServer

Amazon EC2 Trn3 UltraServer

Up to 144 Trainium Chips | 362 FP8 PFLOPS | 706 TB/s aggregate bandwidth

Gee. ALAIO

Source: AWS.

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Trainium3 compute tray

Trainium3 compute tray

Trainium3 compute tray

Trainium3 compute tray

Trainium3 compute tray

Trainium3 compute tray

Trainium3 compute tray

Trainium3 compute tray

Trainium3 compute tray

NeuronLinkswitch tray

NeuronLinkswitchtray

NeuronLink switch tray

NeuronLink switch tray

NeuronLinkswitch tray

NeuronLink switch tray

NeuronLink switch tray

NeuronLink switchtray

NeuronLink switch tray

NeuronLink switch tray

Trainium3 compute tray

Trainium3 compute tray

Trainium3 compute tray

Trainium3 compute tray

Trainium3 compute tray

Trainium3 compute tray

Trainium3 compute tray

Trainium3 compute tray

Trainium3 compute tray

TOR switch

Power/BBU shelves

Exhibit 17: AWS Trainium3 UltraServer architecture

Trainium3 compute tray

Trainium3 compute tray

Trainium3 compute tray

Trainium3 compute tray

Trainium3 compute tray

Trainium3 compute tray

Trainium3 compute tray

Trainium3 compute tray

NeuronLink switch tray

NeuronLink switch tray

NeuronLink switch tray

NeuronLink switch tray

NeuronLink switchtray

NeuronLink switch tray

NeuronLink switch tray

NeuronLink switch tray

NeuronLink switch tray

NeuronLink switch tray

Trainium3 compute tray

Trainium3 compute tray

Trainium3 compute tray

Trainium3 compute tray

Trainium3 compute tray

Trainium3 compute tray

Trainium3 compute tray

Trainium3 compute tray

Trainium3 compute tray

TOR switch

••*

Power/BBU shelves

...

Source: AWS, Morgan Stanley Research.

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Exhibit 18: We estimate Google TPU will contribute 4.1% and 14.4% of TAM total revenue in 2026 and 2027, respectively

Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Exhibit 19: We estimate Meta MTIA to contribute a respective 0.6% and 1.6% of TAM total revenue in 2026 and 2027, respectively

Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates

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Aspeed: Estimate Revisions

We decrease our EPS estimates by 19% for 2026, 17% for 2027 and 15% for 2028: We

factor in the preliminary 2Q26 revenue, and increase our respective revenue projections by 3% for 2026 to factor in a slower ramp of AST2700 in 2026, for which we now expect a slightly slower pace of ASP climb vs our previous outlook. However, we do expect steeper ramp for AST2700 into 2027, as demand for next-generation CPU remains very strong amid greater ASIC server ramp. The decline in our EPS estimates mainly stems from share dividend payout.

Exhibit 20: Aspeed: Earnings estimate revisions

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (E) estimates

Exhibit 21: Aspeed: Quarterly financials

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (E) estimates

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Aspeed: Valuation Methodology

We cut our price target (base case scenario value) from NT$23,456 to NT$20,888: This reflects our EPS changes in 2026-2028e and shares outstanding changes from share dividend issuance.

Our key assumptions are unchanged, including:

• Medium-term growth rate of 21.4%
• Terminal growth rate of 5.5%
• Cash payout ratio of 85%
• Cost of equity of 9.8% (2% risk-free rate, 6% risk premium, 1.3 beta)

Our bull and bear case scenario values also decrease from NT$28,700 and NT$11,300, to NT$25,500 and NT$10,000, respectively, implying 94/65x and 37/25x our 2027e/2028e EPS estimates.

Exhibit 22: Aspeed: Residual income model

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (E) estimates

Exhibit 23: Aspeed: Estimate revision breadth

Exhibit 24: Aspeed: Forward P/E ratio

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research estimates

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Risk Reward - Aspeed Technology (5274.TWO) Risk Reward - Aspeed Technology (5274.TWO)

Agentic AI demand for general server driving further upside; OW

NT$20,888.00 PRICE TARGET

Base case, residual income model. Key assumptions:

• Cost of equity of 9.8% (2.0% risk-free rate, 6% risk premium, 1.3 beta)
• Medium-term growth rate of 21.4%
• Terminal growth rate of 5.5%
• Cash payout ratio of 85%

Consensus Price Target Distribution

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

RISK REWARD CHART

Key:

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

BULL CASE

NT$25,500.00

94x 2027e EPS

Booming data center demand with signi fi cant share gains; meaningful OPM expansion; new businesses take off faster than expected: Significant earnings growth from data center demand and market share gains in white brands and US server brands. Margins improve considerably. New business growth accelerates. We also assume AI servers fully ramp-up, and clients execute new server platform migration faster than expected.

NT$6,727.27

BASE CASE

NT$20,888.00

77x 2027e EPS

Cloud/traditional servers momentum resuming; remains a bene fi ciary of ASICs;

new business bears fruit: 1) Revenue growth of 97% Y/Y in 2026 after strong growth in 2025; 2) gross margin of 69% in 2026 vs. 68.1% in 2025, OPM improves to 56.4% in 2026 vs. 52.2% in 2025; 3) TPU gets more demand from Aspeed's BMC and agentic AI drives more general server demand.

NT$18,562.27

NT$22,727.27

MS PT

Morgan Stanley Estimates

Mean

OVERWEIGHT THESIS

• We see continual general server shipment upward revisions, likely to exceed 40% Y/Y in 2026.
• Aspeed's shipments are currently capped by T-glass shortage, but the company is now qualifying E-glass, which we believe can help expand its shipments to over 2mn units per month.
• Aspeed maintains the lion's share in ASIC racks. Google TPU has long adopted MCU, while we see it utilizing Aspeed's BMC in its next-generation TPU. We expect this to contribute 13% of revenue in each 2027 and 2028.
• Our price target implies 77x our 2027e and 53x our 2028e EPS, above the 42x average one-year forward P/E since 2020, which we find justified by improving demand and new market share expansion.

BEAR CASE

NT$10,000.00

37x 2027e EPS

Disappointing end-demand, with share loss; operating margin pressure; new businesses face challenges: Revenue growth decelerates amid slow data center demand and share loss amid a weakening macro environment. OPM pressure emerges amid intense competition. New businesses stay flattish as end-markets take off more slowly.

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Risk Reward - Aspeed Technology (5274.TWO)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

INVESTMENT DRIVERS

• Expanding share in baseboard management controller (BMC) market
• Cloud spending acceleration from customers
• Margin expansion
• New business progress

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate View explanation of regional hierarchies here

RISKS TO PT/RATING

RISKS TO UPSIDE

• Stronger cloud demand
• Faster-than-expected spec migration
• Mild competition

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

• Softening cloud demand
• Slower-than-expected spec migration
• Intensified competition
• Further policy tightening in China

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

Inst. Owners, % Active

71.3%

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

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Aspeed: Financial Summary

Income Statement

Balance Sheet

E = Morgan Stanley Research Estimates

Source: Morgan Stanley Research, Company Data

Cash Flow Statement

Financial Ratios

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Valuation Methodology and Risks

Montage Technology Co Ltd (688008.SS)

Base case, residual income model. Key assumptions:

• n 8.4% CoE (1.2 beta, 3.0% risk-free rate, and 4.5% risk premium)
• n 30% payout ratio
• n 19.3% medium-term growth rate
• n 4% terminal growth rate

We believe these assumptions are justified, given the cloud capex growth, DRAM interface technology migration, and Montage's strong position in China's datacenter semi localization.

Risks to Upside

• n Faster-than-expected phase-out of US peers
• n Faster-than-expected spec migration

Risks to Downside

• n Weaker-than-expected cloud demand
• n Slower-than-expected DRAM interface technology migration
• n Delay in new product launches

Idea

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Risk Reward Reference links

1. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology -Options_Probabilities_Exhibit_Link.pdf
2. View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes - RR_Themes_Exhibit_Link.pdf
3. View explanation of regional hierarchies - GEG_Exhibit_Link.pdf
4. View explanation of Theme/Exposure methodology -ESG_Sustainable_Solutions_External_Link.pdf
5. View explanation of HERS methodology - ESG_HERS_External_Link.pdf

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