報告_MS_國巨2327_20260929

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Yageo Corp.(2327.TW, 2327 TT)

Greater China Technology Hardware | Taiwan

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan tanley ModelWare framework

• § = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates
• ** = Based on consensus methodology
• e = Morgan tanley Research estimates

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M Update September 29, 2026 04:53 PM GMT

Yageo Corp. | Asia Pacific

TDK-Taiyo Yuden MOU: highend wall rises; cycle thesis intact

The MOU validates AI-driven high-cap M CC tightness, which supports pricing and our M CC up-cycle view.

TDK and Taiyo Yuden (both covered by Shoji Sato) signed an OU to explore an alliance in advanced LCCs/inductors - including manufacturing/procurement cooperation, potential METI subsidies under Japan's Economic Security Act, and a possible future capital tie-up

Our take: We estimate MLCC demand next year at more than 40bn units of 47uF+, which crowds out midrange/low-end MLCC capacity

• 1 We believe de-specing to ≤22uF MLCCs is not a viable workaround Substituting high-cap MLCCs with larger counts of lower-capacitance parts requires broad real estate that simply does not exist on today's densely packed GPU/accelerator boards
• 2 Switching to tantalum-polymer capacitors merely trades one shortage for another, given equally tight tantalum supply
• 3 So the only realistic industry response, in our view, is reallocating midrange/ low-end MLCC capacity toward high-cap production That would structurally tightens midrange/low-end supply, underpinning broad-based pricing power

Things to watch:

• Whether a capital alliance materializes,
• METI subsidy size (this determines how distorted the high-end cost curve gets),
• Counter-move by Murata (also covered by Shoji Sato) counter-move, and
• Any sign the alliance extends into mid-cap products

See our latest report on MLCC here: Global Technology: MLCC: Continued Demand Growth for High- alue-added Products for AI & Data Centers (15 Sep 2026)

M Update

Valuation Methodology and Risks

Yageo Corp. (2327.TW)

Base case, multistage residual income valuation model Key assumptions: cost of equity 7 8% (risk-free rate 1%, equity risk premium 6 8% and beta of 1 1), medium-term growth rate 12%, terminal growth rate 3%

Risks to Upside

• n Faster-than-expected revenue/profit recognition from stronger AI server/notebook demand
• n Further price hikes led by stronger pricing power arising from better demand and/or tighter supply

Risks to Downside

• n A sudden bursting of demand for AI
• n Inventory risk
• n Consumer electronics demand risk

M Update

INDUSTRY COVERAGE: Greater C ina Tec nology Hardware

M Update M Update St ck Ratings are subject t change. Please see latest research f r each c mpany.

• Hist rical prices are n t split adjusted.

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