報告_MS_力積電6770_20260519

PDF 原檔：報告_MS_力積電6770_20260519_original.pdf

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M May 18, 2026 11:48 PM GMT

Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Co | Asia Pacific

Beneficiary of mature node upcycle and EMIB supply chain

We raise our price target from NT$71 to NT$88. EPS estimates are down 46% for 2026 but up 71% for 2027. PSMC is set to benefit from a mature node shortage in 2H27, AP Memory's emerging revenue streams from the EMIB supply chain, and continued price hikes and utilization rate improvements.

Mature node up-cycle begins : In The Foundry Floorplan: All boats riding on the same tide - mature node up-cycle begins, we highlighted that we expect a mature node capacity shortage in 2H27, arising from fast growth of AI power ICs as a key part of future AI infrastructure. AI power ICs should more than offset weak consumer and smartphone semi demand. AI infrastructure build-outs are likely to last another two years, so some smartphone and PC customers are now worrying about future mature node shortages. We have therefore raised our ratings and/or valuations of multiple mature node foundries.

A beneficiary as AP Memory's foundry partner in S-SiCap production: We estimate that this will make up 3% of PSMC's total revenue in 2026, 5% in 2027, and 9% in 2028. In Old Memory - Reaffirming Asymmetric Risks, we discussed how AP Memory's S-SiCap business may benefit from: 1) penetration of the EMIB supply chain by supplying IPDs (integrated passive devices) to Humufish TPUs in 2027/28; 2) high growth of AI GPU shipments for China. See Exhibit 1 .

Memory price hikes continue: For the traditional memory foundry business, PSMC continues to engage in monthly price negotiations with customers; we expect memory foundry price hikes to continue. See also Shawn Kim's report, Agentic AI The Surge Begins: we have expanded our memory TAM forecast to reflect agentic AI demand, reflecting our continued bullish view on the broader memory market.

EPS estimates down 46% for 2026 but up 71% for 2027: We introduce our 2028 forecasts. See PSMC: Earnings Estimate Revisions .

Raise price target from NT$71 to NT$88; remain OW: We now apply a target 2026e P/B of 2.1x, on BVPS of NT$42.1 (implies 1.7x 2027e P/B on NT$50.9 BVPS). We estimate the revenue mix in 2027 between memory, analog, ad logic to be ~48%/30%/22%. If we attribute 52% of the 2027e BVPS to the analog and logic businesses and assume a 3.2x P/B ratio for them (vs. 2027e P/B of 3.3x for UMC and 3.7x for VIS), it would contribute NT$85 of our price target, - implying an almost free valuation for the memory business.

Idea

Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (6770.TW, 6770 TT)

Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan

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