報告_MS_ATS與Marvell擴大合作_20260923

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原始內容

M Update September 23, 2026 11:24 AM GMT

Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific

ABF substrates - AT&S announces expanded collaboration with Marvell

Key Takeaways

• AT&S' announcement of further collaboration with Marvell again implies strong demand for advanced ABF substrates.
• It should be viewed primarily as customer identification and confirmation of the strategic relationship behind the June project...
• ...rather than adding another e pansion on top of June's €1.5-2.0bn plan.
• We believe this implies that Marvell is buying priority access to the part of the AI supply chain most likely to gate its shipments.
• This supports our positive view on the ABF segment. We think it has positive implications for Unimicron and Nan Ya PCB, both of which we rate OW.

Details: AT&S (ATSV.VI, not covered) has e panded its IC substrate agreement with Marvell (MRVL.O, covered by Joseph Moore) to support AI and cloud infrastructure demand, confirming Marvell as the previously unnamed anchor customer behind the Kulim e pansion alongside AMD (report).

The build-out spans the Plant 2 fit-out and a new substrate core and advanced packaging facility, supported by long-term customer commitments.

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+

Howard Kao

Equity Analyst

H ward.Ka @m rganstanley.c m

+886 2 2730-2989

Irene Yen

Equity Analyst Irene.Yen@m rganstanley.c m

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Andy Meng, CFA

Equity Analyst Andy.Meng@m rganstanley.c m

+886 2 2730-2869

+852 2239-7689

Greater China Technology Hardware

Asia Pacific

Industry View In-Line

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M Update

Valuation Methodology and Risks

Unimicron (3037.TW)

Base case, residual income (RI) valuation model, which we think derives the most accurate value of the firm given that it takes into account cost of equity. We use a cost of equity of 9.2% [risk-free rate of 1% (10-year Taiwan government note yield), equity risk premium of 8.7%, and a beta of 1.0], a medium-term growth rate of 15%, and a terminal growth rate of 3%.

Risks to Upside

• n Better-than-e pected ABF substrate demand from PC and server customers
• n Cape cuts; halt to its capacity e pansion plan
• n Continued yield issues of alternative technology that doesn't require substrate (e.g., CoWoP)

Risks to Downside

• n Sudden demand shortfall
• n Technological change that would not require ABF substrates
• n Intensifying competition
• n Yield issues or production hiccups when ramping new capacity

Nan Ya PCB ( 046.TW)

Base case, residual income (RI) valuation model, which we think derives the most accurate value of the firm given that it takes into account cost of equity. We use a cost of equity of 9.3% [risk-free rate of 1% (10-year Taiwan government note yield), equity risk premium of 8.7%, and a beta of 1.0], a medium-term growth rate of 17%, and a terminal growth rate of 3%.

Risks to Upside

• n Better-than-e pected ABF and BT demand
• n Faster-than-e pected pickup in AI and 5G demand
• n Stronger-than-e pected ASP hike
• n Continued yield issues of alternative technology that doesn't require substrate (e.g. CoWoP)

Risks to Downside

• n Sudden demand shortfall, creating headwinds for ABF substrate demand and pricing
• n Technological change that would not require ABF substrates
• n Intensifying competition

M Update

INDUSTRY COVERAGE: Greater China Technology Hardware

M Update

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