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| 檔案 | 對應 Figure | 內容（親眼所見） | 分類 |
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260824_2303_聯電_gfhk_umc-pic-tfln_001.png |
Figure 1 | 聯電營收 YoY 與營業利益 YoY 折線（1Q21-4Q27E）：2Q23 谷底營益 YoY 約 -49%，2026 起轉正並於 1Q27E 觸及約 +100%，4Q27E 回落至約 +35% | ✅ 真資料圖 |
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Figure 5 | 聯電 12 個月 forward P/E 沿革 | ⬜ 附屬（估值圖） |
原始內容
PIC/TFLN Upside Unlocks a Higher-Margin Cycle
C Progress Intact, with >$170 Annualized EPS Potential Lift TP to NT$160: UMC's share price underperformed the Taiex by 26% in 2H-July, due to TSMC's comment of "mature nodes not in shortage" but has moved sideways month-to-date to digest the company's higher depreciation guidance and earlier crowded long position. Nevertheless, we now expect the acceleration of its high-margin PIC business, mainly driven by Hyperlight (which could have made significant progress in Google) and TeraHop. We expect the wafer shipments to grow to 20k/month and 40k/month by 4Q27 and 4Q28, with gross margin being significantly higher than corporate levels. Additionally, we expect its UTR to continue to move higher, driven by AI (incl. optics)/CIS/ISP and DDIC which benefits from Apple's move its Mac from 8' to 55nm. While the market has less appetite on price-hike theme, we believe the visibility has been extended to 2H27. Regarding Intel, mgmt earlier reiterated that the collaboration remains on track for tape-out in 2027 on Intel 12, and we expect the capacity to be more than one phrase. Incorporating higher pricing and PIC demand, we raise 2026E/2027E EPS estimates by 2%/14% and move target multiple higher to 20x on higher margin outlook, resulting in a new TP of NT$160.
TFLN PIC demand to accelerate: Driven by the technology migration to 400G per lane, we believe that UMC's TFLN PIC business, mainly 8', has seen a sharp upward revision. We estimate the wafer shipments to grow to 20k/month and 40k/month by 4Q27 and 4Q28, from 4-5k/month by 4Q26. Based on >70% gross margin and $2.5k/8' ASP (vs. normal 8' ASP of below $1k), we expect EPS contribution to be $0.7/$1.5 in 2027/2028. We attribute the robust order visibility to HyperLight, which could have made significant progress with Google. We also expect solid demand from TeraHop, which is driven by Nvidia and Google. Due to industry-wide supply tightness and manufacturing complexity, we believe TFLN is a highmargin business, helping UMC shift its product mix toward higher-value AI (incl. optics) segment. Technology wise, we don't rule out the possibility for UMC to extend its PIC wafer business to packaging level in the mid/long term.
Risks: 1) Geo-political risk; 2) Demand uncertainties; 3) Competition; 4) New product delay.
Profit forecast
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (m) | 232,303 | 237,553 | 290,217 | 353,625 | 406,835 |
| Revenue YoY ( % ) | 4.4 | 2.3 | 22.2 | 21.8 | 15.0 |
| Net profit (m) | 47,211 | 41,716 | 92,701 | 99,138 | 120,772 |
| Net profit YoY ( % ) | -22.6 | -11.6 | 122.2 | 6.9 | 21.8 |
| EPS (NT$) | 3.8 | 3.3 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 9.7 |
| P/E | 19.6 | 22.3 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 7.7 |
| ROE ( % ) | 12.5 | 11.0 | 21.2 | 21.5 | 21.2 |
Source: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage.
Please be sure to read the disclosures at the end of this report carefully.
数据来源：公司财务报表，广发证券发展研究中心
Maintained Target price
Buy NT$160
Jeff Pu, CFA SFC CE No. BNO719 jeffpu@gfgroup.com.hk
Henry Huang SFC CE No. BYA749 henryhuang@gfgroup.com.hk
Earnings Forecast
Figure 1: UMC's revenue YoY and operating profit YoY (%)
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Earnings Revision
Incorporating higher pricing and PIC demand, we raise 2026E/2027E EPS estimates by 2%/14%.
Figure 2: Earnings revision
| NTDm | 2025 | 2026E | 2026E | 2027E | 2027E | Change (%) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Old | New | Old | New | 2026E | 2027E | ||
| Net sales | 237,553 | 286,813 | 290,217 | 338,898 | 353,625 | 1% | 4% |
| Gross profit | 68,906 | 96,217 | 98,533 | 126,859 | 141,264 | 2% | 11% |
| EBIT | 43,949 | 66,798 | 69,014 | 94,861 | 108,706 | 3% | 15% |
| Pre-tax Income | 49,648 | 99,454 | 101,828 | 101,935 | 116,265 | 2% | 14% |
| Net profit | 41,716 | 90,672 | 92,701 | 86,824 | 99,138 | 2% | 14% |
| EPS (NT$) | 3.34 | 7.26 | 7.43 | 6.95 | 7.94 | 2% | 14% |
| Key ratios (%) | |||||||
| Gross margin | 29.0% | 33.5% | 34.0% | 37.4% | 39.9% | ||
| Operating margin | 18.5% | 23.3% | 23.8% | 28.0% | 30.7% | ||
| Pre-tax margin | 20.9% | 34.7% | 35.1% | 30.1% | 32.9% | ||
| Net profit margin | 17.6% | 31.6% | 31.9% | 25.6% | 28.0% |
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Figure 3: UMC's P&L forecast
| (NTD m) | 2025 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | 2026E | 1Q27E | 2Q27E | 3Q27E | 4Q27E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 237,553 | 61,038 | 68,733 | 78,537 | 81,910 | 290,217 | 80,585 | 87,042 | 91,783 | 94,214 | 353,625 |
| COGS | 168,647 | 43,219 | 46,410 | 50,210 | 51,845 | 191,684 | 49,633 | 52,226 | 54,824 | 55,678 | 212,361 |
| Gross profit | 68,907 | 17,818 | 22,323 | 28,327 | 30,065 | 98,533 | 30,952 | 34,817 | 36,959 | 38,537 | 141,264 |
| Opex | 24,959 | 6,542 | 7,373 | 7,737 | 7,867 | 29,519 | 7,667 | 8,007 | 8,337 | 8,547 | 32,558 |
| Operating profit | 43,948 | 11,276 | 14,950 | 20,590 | 22,198 | 69,014 | 23,285 | 26,810 | 28,622 | 29,990 | 108,706 |
| Non-op profit | 5,699 | 5,367 | 30,236 | -4,545 | 1,755 | 32,814 | 1,890 | 1,890 | 1,890 | 1,890 | 7,559 |
| Pre-tax profit | 49,647 | 16,643 | 45,186 | 16,045 | 23,953 | 101,828 | 25,175 | 28,699 | 30,512 | 31,879 | 116,265 |
| Income tax | 8,113 | 527 | 2,962 | 2,327 | 3,473 | 9,289 | 3,776 | 4,448 | 4,424 | 4,622 | 17,271 |
| Minority interest | 182 | 54 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 162 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 144 |
| Net Income | 41,717 | 16,171 | 42,260 | 13,755 | 20,516 | 92,701 | 21,435 | 24,287 | 26,123 | 27,293 | 99,138 |
| EPS (NT$) | 3.34 | 1.29 | 3.39 | 1.10 | 1.64 | 7.43 | 1.72 | 1.95 | 2.09 | 2.19 | 7.95 |
| Outstanding shares | 12,485 | 12,491 | 12,475 | 12,475 | 12,475 | 12,475 | 12,475 | 12,475 | 12,475 | 12,475 | 12,475 |
| Margin analysis | |||||||||||
| Gross margin | 29.0% | 29.2% | 32.5% | 36.1% | 36.7% | 34.0% | 38.4% | 40.0% | 40.3% | 40.9% | 39.9% |
| Operating margin | 18.5% | 18.5% | 21.8% | 26.2% | 27.1% | 23.8% | 28.9% | 30.8% | 31.2% | 31.8% | 30.7% |
| Pre-tax margin | 20.9% | 27.3% | 65.7% | 20.4% | 29.2% | 35.1% | 31.2% | 33.0% | 33.2% | 33.8% | 32.9% |
| Effective tax rate | 16.3% | 3.2% | 6.6% | 14.5% | 14.5% | 9.1% | 15.0% | 15.5% | 14.5% | 14.5% | 14.9% |
| Growth (YoY%) | |||||||||||
| Sales | 2% | 5% | 17% | 33% | 33% | 22% | 32% | 27% | 17% | 15% | 22% |
| Operating profit | -15% | 15% | 38% | 85% | 82% | 57% | 106% | 79% | 39% | 35% | 58% |
| Net income | -12% | 108% | 375% | -8% | 104% | 122% | 33% | -43% | 90% | 33% | 7% |
| EPS | -12% | 108% | 375% | -8% | 104% | 122% | 33% | -43% | 90% | 33% | 7% |
| Product mix (%) | |||||||||||
| Wafer | 98% | 95% | 97% | 97% | 97% | 97% | 97% | 97% | 97% | 96% | 97% |
| Others | 2% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% |
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Valuation and Recommendation
Buy with TP of NT$160
We rate UMC (2303 TT, UMC US) Buy and set our TP at NT$160, which is based on 20x our 2027E EPS estimate from previous 18x due to enhanced margin outlook. We adopt P/E methodology as we believe the market will be mainly focused on the company's earnings outlook, and its earnings volatility has reduced since 2021 due to a much more diversified application mix and specialty position. We adopt the 2027 P/E valuation is due to the improving pricing environment in the longer term. Overall, we believe the mature node industry outlook has become more favorable, and UMC's mgmt. also guided a favorable pricing environment in 2026/2027.
UMC P/E traded at an average of 15x since 2021, when the market accepted the P/E valuation. Our target price is 20% higher than the mid-cycle level, as we believe the rerating catalysts are emerging amid favorable industry supply/demand. Meanwhile, the company continued to gain AI related business (i.e., networking, silicon photonics, advanced packaging).
Figure 5: UMC's 12-month forward P/E
Sources: Company data, GF Securities (Hong Kong) Brokerage
Risks
1) Geo-political risk; 2) Demand uncertainties; 3) Competition; 4) New product delay.
| Balance Sheet | [Table_FinanceDetail] | [Table_FinanceDetail] | [Table_FinanceDetail] | [Table_FinanceDetail] | NTD mn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |
| Current assets | 189,678 | 204,783 | 249,471 | 258,370 | 330,783 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 115,239 | 128,365 | 159,280 | 153,153 | 211,191 |
| Inventory | 35,782 | 37,228 | 42,314 | 46,878 | 52,476 |
| Accounts Receivable | 33,343 | 31,274 | 38,208 | 46,555 | 53,561 |
| Other current assets | 5,313 | 7,915 | 9,670 | 11,783 | 13,556 |
| Non-current assets | 380,523 | 374,213 | 377,414 | 405,364 | 426,298 |
| Long-term equity investment | 72,487 | 75,373 | 78,373 | 81,373 | 84,373 |
| Fixed assets | 279,059 | 271,395 | 271,597 | 296,546 | 314,481 |
| Other long-term assets | 28,976 | 27,445 | 27,445 | 27,445 | 27,445 |
| Total assets | 570,201 | 578,996 | 626,885 | 663,734 | 757,081 |
| Current liabilities | 75,260 | 87,598 | 91,841 | 105,567 | 108,238 |
| Accounts Payable | 7,633 | 9,170 | 10,422 | 11,547 | 12,926 |
| Short-term borrowings | 19,510 | 27,597 | 19,318 | 18,352 | 8,258 |
| Other current liabilities | 48,117 | 50,831 | 62,100 | 75,669 | 87,054 |
| Non-current liabilities | 75,260 | 87,598 | 91,841 | 105,567 | 108,238 |
| Long-term Debt | 55,533 | 45,372 | 31,760 | 30,172 | 13,578 |
| Other non-current liabilities | 61,222 | 66,170 | 66,170 | 66,170 | 66,170 |
| Total liabilities | 192,016 | 199,141 | 189,771 | 201,910 | 187,986 |
| Total Equity | 378,185 | 379,855 | 437,114 | 461,824 | 569,095 |
| Share Capital | 125,607 | 125,882 | 125,882 | 125,882 | 125,882 |
| Additional Paid-in Capital | 25,473 | 21,004 | 15,004 | 6,004 | -7,496 |
| Retained earnings | 226,849 | 232,883 | 296,141 | 329,851 | 450,623 |
| Preferred Stocks | 257 | 87 | 87 | 87 | 87 |
| Total Liabilities & Equity | 570,201 | 578,996 | 626,885 | 663,734 | 757,081 |
| Income Statement | NTD mn | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |
| Revenue | 232,303 | 237,553 | 290,217 | 353,625 | 406,835 |
| Cost of sales | 156,649 | 168,647 | 191,684 | 212,361 | 237,721 |
| Gross profit | 75,654 | 68,906 | 98,533 | 141,264 | 169,114 |
| Operating Expense | 24,042 | 24,958 | 29,519 | 32,558 | 35,888 |
| Operating profit | 51,613 | 43,949 | 69,014 | 108,706 | 133,226 |
| Interest Income | 3,670 | 2,279 | 1,821 | 2,359 | 3,246 |
| Interest Expense | 1,679 | 1,602 | 31,297 | 5,200 | 5,200 |
| Net other Non-op. Income/(Loss) | 2,616 | 5,022 | -305 | 0 | 0 |
| Pre-tax profit | 56,220 | 49,648 | 101,828 | 116,265 | 141,672 |
| Income tax | 9,218 | 8,294 | 9,451 | 17,415 | 21,188 |
| Profit for the year | 47,002 | 41,353 | 92,376 | 98,850 | 120,484 |
| Minority interest | 105 | 182 | 162 | 144 | 144 |
| Net profit to ord. equity | 47,211 | 41,716 | 92,701 | 99,138 | 120,772 |
| EPS (NT$) | 3.8 | 3.3 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 9.7 |
| Cash Flow Statement | NTD mn | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |
| Operating cash flow | 79,970 | 103,286 | 154,648 | 168,955 | 196,326 |
| Profit for the year | 47,211 | 41,716 | 92,701 | 99,138 | 120,772 |
| Depreciation & amortization | 48,168 | 59,259 | 63,199 | 70,151 | 77,166 |
| Change in working capital | -16,251 | 2,272 | -1,252 | -333 | -1,612 |
| Others | 843 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Investing cash flow | -87,144 | -52,988 | -63,400 | -95,100 | -95,100 |
| Capex | -85,408 | -48,764 | -63,400 | -95,100 | -95,100 |
| Change in investment | 924 | -2,924 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Others | -2,660 | -1,300 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Free cash flow | -5,438 | 54,523 | 91,248 | 73,855 | 101,226 |
| Financing cash flow | 6,135 | 2,874 | -21,891 | -2,554 | -26,688 |
| Change in Capital | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net Change in Debt | 271 | -2,075 | -21,891 | -2,554 | -26,688 |
| Others | 5,864 | 4,948 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Exchange influence | 3,715 | -1,846 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net increase in cash | -1,038 | 53,172 | 69,357 | 71,301 | 74,537 |
| Key Financial Ratios | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth (%) | |||||
| Revenue growth | 4.4 | 2.3 | 22.2 | 21.8 | 15.0 |
| Operating profit growth | -10.8 | -14.8 | 57.0 | 57.5 | 22.6 |
| Net profit growth | -7.8 | 5.2 | 144.1 | 25.4 | 42.9 |
| Profitability (%) | |||||
| Gross profit margin | 32.6 | 29.0 | 34.0 | 39.9 | 41.6 |
| Operating Profit Margin | 22.2 | 18.5 | 23.8 | 30.7 | 32.7 |
| Net profit margin | 20.3 | 17.6 | 31.9 | 28.0 | 29.7 |
| Key Ratio (%) | |||||
| ROA | 8.3 | 7.2 | 14.8 | 14.9 | 16.0 |
| ROE | 12.5 | 11.0 | 21.2 | 21.5 | 21.2 |
| Stability | |||||
| Gross debt/equity | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Interest Coverage | 48 | 64 | 115 | 157 | 258 |
| Current Ratio | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 3.1 |
| Quick Ratio | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.6 |
| Net debt/equity | Net Cash | Net Cash | Net Cash | Net Cash | Net Cash |
Rating definitions Benchmark: Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong)
Company ratings Buy
Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10 %
Hold
Expected stock relative performance ranges between -10 % and 10 %
Underperform
Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10 %
Sector ratings Positive
Sector expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%
Neutral
Expected sector relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%
Cautious
Sector expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%
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Telephone
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evanlee@gfgroup.com.hk
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