260622_2327_國巨_ms_Yageo

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M June 22, 2026 05:30 AM GMT

Yageo Corp. | Asia Pacific

Pricing Power Arriving Faster and Stronger Than Expected

The AI-driven MLCC upcycle appears to be accelerating faster than we previously anticipated. With earnings already tracking ahead of expectations and supply chain checks pointing to substantially stronger pricing in 2H26, we raise our earnings estimates and price target again for Yageo.

After raising our PT on June 12 (see Yageo Corp.: AI-Driven Demand Is Beginning to Tighten MLCC Supply), we are increasing it again, to NT$1,515. This is driven primarily by several new developments and thoughts:

1. Stronger-than-expected May earnings performance: Yageo reported preliminary May earnings on June 17 that exceeded our expectations. May EPS came in at NT$1.60, representing approximately 38% of our previous 2Q26 EPS estimate of NT$4.23. We attribute the upside to a combination of more favorable pricing and higher utilization rates. As a result, we raise our 2Q26 EPS estimate by approximately 9% to NT$4.6.
2. Improved pricing outlook for 2H26: Our latest supply chain checks indicate stronger pricing momentum in 2H26. We now expect direct-customer pricing to increase 30-40% on average in 2H26, vs. our previous estimate of 1020%. This more constructive pricing environment is a key factor behind our upward revisions to earnings estimates for CY26-28.
3. Higher MLCC ASPs: Reflecting a stronger pricing outlook, we now forecast blended MLCC ASP increases for Yageo of 30% in CY26 and 67% in CY27, up from our prior assumptions of 10% and 61%, respectively.
4. Our base-case forecasts assume MLCC gross margins peak at approximately 50% by late 2027, well below the ~80% peak achieved during the previous cycle. If industry conditions evolve such that margins revisit historical peak levels, Yageo's EPS could increase to approximately NT $45 in CY27 and NT$60 in CY28, highlighting substantial upside potential beyond our current estimates.
5. Broader pricing strength across portfolio: Beyond MLCCs, we expect other product categories, including resistors, to see price increases in 2H26. Although their magnitude is likely to be more moderate than for MLCCs, they should provide an additional tailwinds to earnings.

Reiterate OW, raise PT to NT$1,515 from NT$1,355: This implies ~32x CY28 P/E; however, PEG is only 0.86x. We favor Yageo for its scale, broad product portfolio across all passive components, and leverage to an improving industry cycle.

Idea

Yageo Corp. (2327.TW, 2327 TT)

Greater China Technology Hardware | Taiwan

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