260622_2409_3034_ms_2h-june-panel-px

PDF 原檔：260622_2409_3034_ms_2h-june-panel-px_original.pdf

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M June 22, 2026 04:32 PM GMT

Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific

TFT-LCD Panel Prices for June 2026: TVs Flat, Monitors +0.1%, NBs Flat MoM

We expect TV panel prices to decline from 3Q26 and IT panel prices from 4Q26. While we remain constructive on the opportunities for glass in advanced packaging, we believe it will take time for supply chain players to generate meaningful revenue.

TV panel prices stayed flat MoM in June: Mainstream 32", 43", 55", 65", and 75" TV panel prices held flat MoM in June. Order momentum began to slow as earlier restocking since the start of the year tapered off, although panel makers continue to maintain disciplined utilization to align output with demand. Looking into 2H26, we maintain the view that panel orders could come in below seasonal levels, which could further weaken panel makers' bargaining power. We therefore expect TV panel prices to trend down from 3Q26. On a quarterly average basis, TV panel prices should increase by low single digits QoQ in 2Q26.

IT panel prices were largely stable in June: Monitor panel prices edged up 0.1% MoM, while notebook panels remained flat MoM. Overall, we expect IT panel prices to remain relatively more stable than TV panels in the coming quarters. On a quarterly average basis, IT panel prices should be roughly flat QoQ in 2Q26.

Glass opportunities in packaging continue to gain attention: Our checks indicate that Innolux is supplying a glass core with TGV (Through Glass Via) to a major foundry player to validate the benefits of a simulated glass core ABF substrate. While improved coplanarity, lower CTE, higher effective modulus, and better power integrity are encouraging, we note that the TGV process remains challenging for Innolux, with yield as a key gating factor for mass production. Our understanding is that adoption could begin with CoWoS and potentially extend to CoPoS later. We expect meaningful revenue contribution no earlier than 2028 (see more in our deep dive report).

Risk/reward less attractive: We view valuations as less attractive, particularly for Taiwan names AUO (2409.TW; 1.5x P/B) and Innolux (3481.TW; 2.5x P/B), as incremental contributions from advanced packaging will take more time to materialize and competition could intensify at the mass production stage, with multiple supply chain players targeting the opportunity. Within China, we prefer BOE (000725.SZ; 1.8x P/B) over TCL (000100.SZ; 1.8x P/B), reflecting BOE's scale advantage, higher concentration in display, and faster progress in glass core substrates.

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+

Derrick Yang

Equity Analyst

Derrick.Yang@morganstanley.com

+886 2 2730-2862

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Shawn Kim

Equity Analyst

Shawn.Kim@morganstanley.com

+44 20 7677-1018

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+

Vivi Huang

Research Associate

Vivi.Huang@morganstanley.com

+886 2 2730-2860

Sharon Shih

Equity Analyst Sharon.Shih@morganstanley.com

+886 2 2730-2865

Greater China Technology Hardware

Asia Pacific Industry View

S. Korea Technology

Asia Pacific

Industry View

In-Line

Attractive

Exhibit 1 : TFT-LCD TV Panel Price Trends

Source: Trendforce, Morgan Stanley Research

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Pricing Chart

Exhibit 2: TFT-LCD Panel Prices - June 2026

Source: TrendForce, Morgan Stanley Research

Note: To be more consistent with the industry practice, WitsView changed the way it publishes panel price quotes in January 2025. It now only provides expectations of the fullmonth panel price outlook on the 5th of every month, instead of specific quotes for the first half of the month. It will then provide finalized prices for the month on the 20th of every month, which will be similar to the original 2H panel pricing quotes.

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TV Panel Prices To Start Trending Down from 3Q26

TV panel prices started to edge up at the beginning of this year, rising 1% MoM in January, 2% MoM in February and 2% MoM in March. April, May and June were largely flat, and we expect TV panel prices to trend down from 3Q26. That said, we do not expect the decline to be significant, as supply-side discipline should provide downside support.

Source: Trendforce, Morgan Stanley Research (E) estimates

Below Seasonal Panel Shipments in 2H26

Over the past decade, TV panel shipments have averaged a 49%-51% split between 1H and 2H. In 2026, we see the mix skew toward 1H26, as TV brands restocked ahead of major promotional events, including the Winter Olympics in February, the FIFA World Cup in June-July, and China's 618 campaign. We see no clear evidence that these events will materially boost global TV demand, but shipment timing has consistently shifted across quarters around such promotions. The earlier restocking momentum since the start of the year should taper off, with panel order momentum slowing into 2H26.

Display Fab Utilization Stayed at 80-85% in 2Q26

Stronger TV panel shipments supported display fab utilization at ~80% in 4Q24 and 82% in 1Q25. Utilization declined to 78% in 2Q25 as brands turned more conservative after earlier pull-ins faded and the impact of China's trade-in program eased. Utilization rebounded to 80%-85% in 3Q25 as restocking resumed for year-end promotions and stayed at similar levels in 4Q25 despite seasonal softness, as well as into 1Q26. Industry utilization remained broadly flat QoQ at 80%-85% in 2Q26, reflecting ongoing output discipline.

Over the medium to long term, we maintain the view that the display segment is undergoing structural change. Chinese panel makers have shifted from top-line growth to profitability, with fewer government subsidies reinforcing supply discipline. We believe more investors now accept that the industry's 'production-to-order' model can remain sustainable, particularly as panel price cycles shortened to quarters in 2023-24 versus multi-year cycles in the prior decade. Consolidation moves - including LG Display's sale of its Gen 8.5 Guangzhou fab to TCL and Sharp's shutdown of its Gen 10 Sakai fab - also support a healthier supply backdrop (for more information, see Display - Structural

Exhibit 3: TV Panel Price Trend (QoQ)

Source: Trendforce, Morgan Stanley Research (E) estimates

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Changes on Supply Side Not Fairly Priced In, June 17, 2021).

Exhibit 5: Industry Average Utilization at Display Fabs

Source: WitsView, Morgan Stanley Research (E) estimates

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Risk/Reward Remains Less Attractive

We believe this round of panel price hikes is coming to an end, and thus risk/reward is less attractive, especially for Taiwanese names. Below are our current views:

• AUO (2409.TW, Derrick Yang): We are EW on AUO, with a PT of NT$14.00, based on a 0.7x 2026e P/B multiple. Although TV panel price hikes are ongoing, we think the valuation of 1.5x 2026e P/B has priced in all favorable dynamics vs. its midcycle average of 0.8x since 2022.
• BOE (000725.SZ, Derrick Yang): We have a relative preference for BOE, owing to its scale advantage, more diversified revenue mix across applications and technologies, and relatively cheap valuation vs. its Chinese peer TCL. Our PT of Rmb5.20 is based on 1.4x 2026e P/B vs. its mid-cycle average of 1.2x since 2022, and we think the premium is justified by its solid industry position.
• Innolux (3481.TW, Derrick Yang): On its FOPLP business, we think Innolux could leverage its existing technology expertise and legacy capacity, but more meaningful contributions are likely to take time. The company also announced its April 2026 preliminary profit today as per TWSE requirements: pretax income was NT $2,313mn (+935% YoY), vs. 96%/52% of MS/consensus estimated pretax income of NT$2,408mn/NT$4,487mn for 2Q26; net profit was NT$2,159mn (+2654% YoY; EPS NT$0.27), vs. 132%/60% of MS/consensus estimated net profit of NT $1,630mn (EPS NT$0.20)/NT$3,592mn (EPS NT$0.15) for 2Q26. Though we think there should be some non-op gains in April, the number points to some upside to both MSe and consensus estimates for 2Q26.
• LG Display (034220.KS, Shawn Kim): Meaningful OLED revenue contribution should increasingly improve earnings from 2H25, but potentially weaker endmarkets keep us from turning bullish on LGD. The stock trades at 0.8x 2026e P/B vs. a historical mid-cycle level of 0.5x.
• TCL (000100.SZ, Derrick Yang): We are EW with a price target of Rmb4.70 (1.7x 2026e P/B). The stock is trading at 1.8x 2026e P/B vs. its mid-cycle average of 1.4x since 2022, so we think the panel price hike cycle has been mostly baked into its share price.
• Corning (GLW.N, Meta Marshall): GLW's display business operates efficiently and sees further margin support from additional currency-related price increases, while the optical business resumes growth as carrier fiber deployments pick up. GLW's display business closely correlates with panel maker utilization, and is its largest earnings contributor.
• Greater China DDIC supply chain implications - Novatek (3034.TW, Daniel Yen): Daniel's UW thesis is based on weaker PC, smartphone and auto demand, gross margin pressure and lack of new growth drivers. That said, Novatek's OLED DDI roadmap looks more competitive than that of its key Korean competitors on performance and cost, helping it increase its market share in Apple's iPhone supply chain.

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Exhibit 6: AUO Share Price vs. Panel Price

Source: Company data, WitsView, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research

Exhibit 8: BOE Share Price vs. Panel Price

Source: Company data, WitsView, FactSet. Morgan Stanley Research

Exhibit 7: Innolux Share Price vs. Panel Price

Source: Company data, WitsView, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research

Exhibit 9: TCL Share Price vs. Panel Price

Source: Company data, WitsView, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Results shown do not include transaction costs.

Exhibit 10: GLW Display Volumes vs. Utilization

Exhibit 11: GLW Display Revenue vs. Utilization

Source: Company data, WitsView, Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Source: Company data, WitsView, Morgan Stanley Research estimates

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Where Could We Be Wrong?

• Stronger end-demand: If end-demand for major applications turns out to be better than expected, there could be stronger panel shipments and less panel price pressure.
• More stringent output control: If major panel makers collectively adjust utilization to an extreme extent, they could mitigate pricing pressure in the case of softer demand.
• Non-commodity display business: If the non-commodity business progresses faster than expected, panel makers could show better financial results.

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圖片清單（已驗證 2026-07-02）

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