PDF 原檔：260615_ms_ATS_original.pdf
原始內容
M June 15, 2026 06:02 AM GMT
Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific
ABF Substrates - AT&S announces capacity expansion in Malaysia
What's new? AT&S (ATSV.VI, not covered) announced that it had signed key terms with AMD and another major tech customer to add AI/HPC IC substrate capacity in Kulim, Malaysia. The company said the €1.5-2bn investment is fully supported and financed by long-term customer commitments, pending final execution.
Based on the terms, AT&S raised its FY26/27 guidance sharply:
- Currency-adj. rev growth to 45-55% from 30-35%;
- EBITDA margin to 32-37% from 25-29%;
- Capex €1-1.2bn from €0.4bn, with significantly positive op FCF.
Our thoughts: AT&S raising guidance for FY26/27 on the new capacity announcement implies it will come online by EoFY, or March 2027, as it appears AT&S is only adding new production lines at existing buildings at its Kulim site, instead of building a new production facility. This implies strong demand and does not derail our expectation of an ABF supply deficit from 2027 onwards, implying a positive readacross for Unimicron, NYPCB and ZDT. We are OW on all three stocks.
Update
Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+
Howard Kao
Equity Analyst
Howard.Kao@morganstanley.com
+886 2 2730-2989
Irene Yen
Research Associate
Irene.Yen@morganstanley.com
+886 2 2730-2869
Sharon Shih
Equity Analyst
Sharon.Shih@morganstanley.com
+886 2 2730-2865
Greater China Technology Hardware
Asia Pacific Industry View
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Valuation Methodology and Risks
Unimicron (3037.TW)
Base case, residual income (RI) valuation model, which we think derives the most accurate value of the firm given that it takes into account cost of equity. We use a cost of equity of 9.2% [risk-free rate of 1% (10-year Taiwan government note yield), equity risk premium of 8.7%, and a beta of 1.0], a medium-term growth rate of 15%, and a terminal growth rate of 3%.
Risks to Upside
- n Better-than-expected ABF substrate demand from PC and server customers
- n Capex cuts; halt to its capacity expansion plan
- n Continued yield issues of alternative technology that doesn't require substrate (e.g., CoWoP)
Risks to Downside
- n Sudden demand shortfall
- n Technological change that would not require ABF substrates
- n Intensifying competition
- n Yield issues or production hiccups when ramping new capacity
Zhen Ding (4958.TW)
Base case, residual income model. Key assumptions include a cost of equity of 10%, a mediumterm growth rate of 15% and a terminal growth rate of 3%.
Risks to Upside
- n Higher-than-expected F-PCB content increase for iPhones
- n Better-than-expected production yield/share allocation for SLP
- n Share gains on higher margin F-PCB pieces
Risks to Downside
- n Worse-than-expected iPhone sell-through
- n Lower-than-expected F-PCB content increase for iPhones
- n Worse-than-expected production yield/share allocation for SLP
- n Increasing competition from Chinese peers, intensifying pricing pressure
Nan Ya PCB (8046.TW)
Base case, residual income (RI) valuation model, which we think derives the most accurate value of the firm given that it takes into account cost of equity. We use a cost of equity of 9.3% [risk-free rate of 1% (10-year Taiwan government note yield), equity risk premium of 8.7%, and a beta of 1.0], a medium-term growth rate of 17%, and a terminal growth rate of 3%.
Risks to Upside
- n Better-than-expected ABF and BT demand
- n Faster-than-expected pickup in AI and 5G demand
- n Stronger-than-expected ASP hike
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- n Continued yield issues of alternative technology that doesn't require substrate (e.g. CoWoP)
Risks to Downside
- n A sudden demand shortfall, creating headwinds for ABF substrate demand and pricing
- n Technological change that would not require ABF substrates
- n Intensifying competition
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