260521_ms_ABF_ATS-implication

PDF 原檔：260521_ms_ABF_ATS-implication_original.pdf

原始內容

M May 21, 2026 04:11 PM GMT

Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific

ABF Substrates - Takeaways from AT&S FY25/26 Results Call

AT&S raised revenue and EBITDA margin guidance for FY26/27, which supports our bullish view on ABF substrate suppliers Unimicron, NYPCB, and ZDT.

Key Takeaways

• AT&S (ATSV.VI, not covered) reported C1Q revenue of €477mn (+2% q/q): Electronics Solutions (-13% q/q) and Microelectronics (ABF; +14% q/q).
• C1Q/F4Q Microelectronics (ABF) EBIT margin jumped by 920bp q/q to 17.4%, which management attributed to bigger volumes in all sites and pricing effects.
• FY26/27 revenue was guided to grow 30-35% y/y, primarily driven by volumes, with Microelectronics (ABF) seeing more pronounced growth...
• ...and EBITDA margin was guided to fall in the range of 25-29% (vs. 23.3% in FY25/26), on the back of volumes, pricing and passing on increasing input costs.

Medium-term 2026/27 guidance

• Revenue: +30-35% y/y (implying the high end of the communicated €2.12.4bn range)
• EBITDA margin: 25-29% (raised from 24-28% previously)
• *This guidance is subject to supply and the geopolitical situation, as well as currency developments. Also not included are the potential effects of ongoing negotiations with customers. These would result in a capacity expansion that is partially financed by customers and would accordingly impact earnings performance and capital expenditure planning.

Other key takeaways:

• (+) FY26/27 revenue growth will be mainly driven by volume growth, with Microelectronics (ABF substrate) seeing more pronounced growth from AI infra investments, which impact demand for both GPU and increasingly CPU as the ecosystem broadens towards more inference workloads.
• (+) AT&S noted that customer demand for its technologies is so large that some of them cannot be fulfilled; particularly for Microelectronics, it is seeing strong demand from both existing and new customers.
• (+) Now AT&S' agreements with its customers often include financing for investments from its customers, one example being the newly announced capacity expansion for high-end substrates in Chongqing, China, for which the required investments in the 'high double-digit € million' range will be fully financed based on long-term customer agreements. This is expected to ensure profitability for AT&S.
• (+) AT&S also noted increasing input costs from suppliers, which AT&S

Update

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+

Howard Kao

Equity Analyst

Howard.Kao@morganstanley.com

+886 2 2730-2989

Irene Yen

Research Associate

Irene.Yen@morganstanley.com

+886 2 2730-2869

Sharon Shih

Equity Analyst

Sharon.Shih@morganstanley.com

+886 2 2730-2865

Greater China Technology Hardware

Asia Pacific

Industry View

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Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

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