報告_UBS_ASIC與CPU產業_20260922

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原始內容

UBS Global I/O Semiconductors

ASICs and CPUs move to center stage, driving the next wave o CoWoS expansion

Stronger and diversifying CoWoS capacity expansion in 2027-2

Following UBS Taiwan Summit (Day 1, Day 2&3) and our CoWoS industry analysis, we are urther raising CoWoS industry capacity to 270kwpm rom 260kwpm end-2027E, up rom 160kwpm end-2026E. Current visibility suggests requirement or urther CoWoS capacity expansion in 2028, even with Intel's EMIB-T and TSMC's CoPoS ramping or large package AI accelerator in 2028-29. We believe the trend re lects more robust Cloud AI chip demand, especially rom CPUs and ASICs, which we think should mostly stay at CoWoS in 2028-29. The migration toward larger package with heterogenous integration also consumes a lot more capacity. Meanwhile, CoWoS supply continues to diversi y, thanks to improving capabilities o OSATs and larger capacity requirement. For CoW, we view ASE's expansion to be more aggressive to reach 70kwpm capacity end o 2027E rom 20kwpm end o 2026E, vs TSMC / Amkor's CoW capacity at 180kwpm / 20kwpm end o 2027E. For WoS, as we recently highlighted, TSMC could introduce a new OSAT partner or mass production in 2028 on top o its collaboration with ASE.

ASIC efforts bearing fruit

A ter several years o investment, the large hyperscalers and AI natives are making solid progress on custom silicon or accelerator and CPU into 2027. On accelerator, Microso t's Maia 300 per ormance appears to be competitive, and we estimate Maia 200/300 units o 50/350k in 2027, up rom ~100k o total Maias in 2026. OpenAI's Jalapeño may also ramp to 600-700k units in 2027E rom 150k in 2026E. Meta's MTIA also targets higher volume to ~450k units in 2027, although visibility seems lower than Microso t and OpenAI. Large projects such as Google TPUs and Amazon Trainium are on track to reach our estimates o 9m / 3.2m packages in 2027 rom 4.1m / 2.5m in 2026E.

Upside to Nvidia and AMD's demand

We raise Nvidia's AI GPU production units in 2027 rom 8.2m to 8.8m with higher Rubin estimates and ~200k Rubin CPX units. Rubin Ultra with similar package architecture and HBM de-spec may ramp more smoothly and quickly rom mid 2027. We li t AMD's CoWoS demand in 2027E by 11% to actor in more robust ramp o the Venice server CPU, which may reach 5mn in 2027E vs our prior estimate o 4mn. We keep AMD's accelerator units at 1.9mn or 2027E due to tight supply.

Stock recommendations

Along the semiconductor supply chain or Cloud AI, our top picks are TSMC (the industry's leading Cloud AI oundry), MediaTek (design services or Google TPU with new ASIC opportunity; Key Call Buy), and ASE (advanced packaging & testing). We estimate backend, including advanced packaging, to reach ~12%/16% o TSMC sales in 2026/27E. TSMC's advanced packaging sales should sustain ~50% CAGR growth in 2026-30E even with Intel's EMIB competition. Critical equipment suppliers or advanced packaging & testing could also bene it rom aster CoWoS expansion and the trend toward larger and more complicated package structure, and we like All Ring, GPTC, Chroma, Hon Precision, and ASMPT. We lower our price target or GPTC rom NT $5,000 to NT$4,300, based on the same 33x average 2027-28E PE. We lower our GPTC EPS estimates by 25%/21%/8% in 2026/27/28E as we actor in lower tool unit or sales recognition in 2026 and lower ASP assumption. Maintain Buy as we believe GPTC will be a key bene iciary o advanced packaging capacity expansion. We like Aspeed or its strong BMC outlook, and Alchip or its Amazon Trainium3 and Trainium4 opportunities.

Equities

Asia

Semiconductors

Sunny Lin

Analyst

sunny.lin@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7346

Randy Abrams

Analyst

randy.abrams@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7338

Nicolas Gaudois

Analyst

nicolas.gaudois@ubs.com +65-6495 5148

Timothy Arcuri

Analyst

timothy.arcuri@ubs.com

+1-415-352 5676

Jerry Su

Analyst jerry.su@ubs.com +886-28-722 7306

Ryan Sun

Analyst

ryan-za.sun@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7267

Christine Chen, CFA Associate Analyst christine.chen@ubs.com

+886-2-8722 7352

Shingo Hirata, CFA Analyst

shingo.hirata@ubs.com +81-3-5208 6224

Diana Chang

Analyst

diana.chang@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7335

Jimmy Yoon

Analyst

jimmy.yoon@ubs.com +65-6495 4617

Figure 1: Valuation comparison

Source: LSEG, UBS estimates. Note: Priced as o 18 Sept 2026.

Figure 2: Total CoWoS interposer wafer demand

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 3: Breakdown of CoWoS demand

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 4: Nvidia's supply chain build units

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 5: AMD's supply chain build units

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 6: ASIC's supply chain build units

Source: Company data, UBS estimates. Note: Others include Intel's Habana, Tesla's Dojo, etc.

Figure 7: SoIC volume

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure : TSMC's back-end sales analysis

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 9: Industry CoWoS capacity

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 10: TSMC vs. non-TSMC CoWoS capacity

Source: Company data, UBS estimates. Note: Non-TSMC CoWoS capacity includes ASE and Amkor.

Figure 11: Industry CoWoS capacity vs. Nvidia's volume

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 13: N3 supply & demand analysis

Source: Company data, UBS estimates. Note: kwpm stands or thousands o wa ers per month.

Figure 12: CoWoS demand from major customers

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

kwpm

Figure 14: TSMC is accelerating N3 capacity expansion to meet strong demand from cloud AI

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 15: N3 capacity share by client in 2026E

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 16: N3 capacity share by client in 2027E

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 17: Summary of major advanced packaging equipment vendors

Source: Company data, LSEG, UBS estimates. Share price in local currency. Note: Asian stocks priced as o 18 Sept 2026; non-Asian stocks priced as o 18 Sept 2026. EPS estimates or non-covered (Kulicke and So a, Shibaura Mechatronics, Scientech, Nordson Corporation) companies are based on LSEG consensus orecasts.

Forecast changes - GPTC

Figure 1 : Revisions to our earnings estimates - GPTC

Source: UBS estimates

Figure 19: Our revised earnings estimates vs. consensus - GPTC

Source: Visible Alpha, UBS estimates

Figure 20: UBS earnings forecasts - GPTC

Source: Company data, UBS estimates

Figure 21: GPTC's 12M forward PE band (x)

Source: LSEG, UBS

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

Tech investing involves risk. It is di icult or the investment community, UBS included, to project the inancial results o tech companies, as their operating models are highly volatile and unpredictable, and they compete in a highly dynamic marketplace. In addition to their low predictability, valuing tech stocks can be challenging because neither traditional nor nontraditional valuation measures have provided much insight into how tech stocks trade. We value GPTC based on PE methodology.

Downside risks include: 1) slower-than-expected CoWoS capacity expansion; 2) competitors achieving technological advancements; 3) geopolitical uncertainty; and 4) worse-thanexpected AI growth.

Quantitative Research Review

UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment o its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood o an occurrence o a number o short term actors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. The views or this month can be ound below. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock re lect only the views on those short term actors which are a di erent time rame to the 12-month time rame re lected in any equity rating set out in this note. For previous responses please make re erence to (i) previous UBS Global Research reports; and (ii) where no applicable research report was published that month, the Quantitative Research Review which can be ound at https://neo.ubs.com/quantitative, or contact your UBS sales representative or access to the report or the Quantitative Research Team on ubs-quant-answers@ubs.com. A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your UBS sales representative or details and pricing or the Quantitative Research Team on the email above.

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