PDF 原檔：報告_UBS_玉晶光3406_3M私募_20261015_original.pdf
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82KB | 真資料圖（財務） | Figure 2：玉晶光與大立光月營收（柱）及 YoY（折線），2020-04 至 2026-04，玉晶光自 2025 年中起增速優於大立光 |
報告_UBS_玉晶光3406_3M私募_20261015_002.png |
41KB | 真資料圖（財務） | Figure 3：玉晶光股價（面積）與 NTM P/E（折線），平均 15x、±1 標準差 12x／17x，近期股價與本益比衝出歷史區間上緣 |
報告_UBS_玉晶光3406_3M私募_20261015_004.png |
55KB | 真資料圖（財務） | UBS 目標價與股價歷史（2023-08 至 2026-10），目標價階梯式上調至約 NT$1,250，評等長期為 Buy（2024 年中曾有一段 No Rating） |
報告_UBS_玉晶光3406_3M私募_20261015_003.png |
35KB | 真資料圖（財務，<40KB） | Figure 4：股價走勢，標題稱反映對 CPO 額外獲利的預期（未逐張細讀） |
<40KB 未 Read 者免列（預設 logo／小圖）。
原始內容
First Read
Genius Electronic Optical
Private placement with 3M expands its optical connectivity opportunity
Genius approved a private placement with 3M
On 15th Oct, Genius's board approved a private placement to 3M K Limited for 5.54mn shares at NT$869.6 per share, an 18.3% discount to the 14th Oct closing price NT$1,065, representing NT$4.8bn investment and 4.68% stake in Genius. Proceeds from the transaction will fund technology development, working capital, and bank loan repayment. The two companies also announced a strategic partnership to develop optical communication for AI data center and HPC. We believe this announcement is a positive validation for Genius working with a tier one supplier in optical connectivity to provide its precision components for advanced optics.
3M E O technology could open up a US$100mn TAM for Genius
3M has been developing its EBO (expanded beam optical) technology since 2019 with commercialization in late 2024 and deployment for Microsoft Azure data centers in July 2026. EBO is an upgrade to MPO connectors at the ends of fiber optics cables. The EBO is a lensed, non-contact ferrule that uses a prism lens to expand and collimate a light beam to send across fiber before refocusing into a receiving fiber, improving dust tolerance to cut cleaning steps and cable inspection times 85%. The technology was supported by the MSA launched in May 2026, co-chaired by Oracle, with Meta, Senko and Molex among the members for scale-out cabling. We saw opportunity opened for Genius on the EBO ferrule, a small molded plastic part with a row of micro-lenses to widen the light beam plus an anti reflection coating. This could open up a S$100mn market TAM for Genius based on 4-12 ferrules per GP (2-3 connections x 2-4 plugs per connection) x 20mn accelerators x S$1 for the lens assembly.
Validation for its optical solution push with potential hyperscaler exposure
We believe the scale of placement at NT$4.8bn suggests scope to expand into CPO where it could improve the MT ferrule used as the detachable plug end of the FA to hold the fiber in position when it is connected to a switch adapter or removable cable. Genius collaboration with 3M can bring the company closer to the end demand with its direct partnership with Microsoft and bring revenue contribution forward to 2027, ahead of Genius CPO ramp in 2028E. For CPO, we still see potential to reach 10% of the TAM supplying MT ferrule, prism and V-groove.
Reiterate uy with PT at NT$1,250
Our recent update on Genius had raised the PT from NT$700 to NT$1,250 reflecting the company's potential CPO market with its progress sampling three precision components inside the fiber array unit (FA ) targeting FA integrators such as Coherent and FOCI. The collaboration strengthens our confidence on Genius capability within the optical connectivity industry, and reiterate our Buy on the compony.
| Highlights (NT$m) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 21,675 | 23,187 | 24,989 | 26,977 | 29,584 | 32,266 | 34,762 | 37,476 |
| E IT (U S) | 4,131 | 4,671 | 4,773 | 5,426 | 6,083 | 6,878 | 7,414 | 7,995 |
| Net earnings (U S) | 3,003 | 3,732 | 4,090 | 4,315 | 4,953 | 5,549 | 5,952 | 6,388 |
| EPS (U S, diluted) (NT$) | 26.64 | 33.10 | 36.28 | 38.27 | 43.93 | 49.22 | 52.79 | 56.66 |
| DPS (net) (NT$) | 7.99 | 12.00 | 18.00 | 17.00 | 18.36 | 21.98 | 24.62 | 26.41 |
| Net (debt) / cash | 575 | 6,007 | 7,653 | 11,351 | 15,484 | 19,951 | 24,709 | 29,820 |
| Profitability/valuation | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
| E IT (U S) margin % | 19.1 | 20.1 | 19.1 | 20.1 | 20.6 | 21.3 | 21.3 | 21.3 |
| ROIC (E IT) % | 19.7 | 24.3 | 26.0 | 30.8 | 37.4 | 46.0 | 55.0 | 67.6 |
| EV/E ITDA (U S core) x | 5.5 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 11.9 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 8.2 | 7.6 |
| P/E (U S, diluted) x | 14.6 | 14.7 | 11.7 | 29.1 | 25.4 | 22.7 | 21.1 | 19.7 |
| Equity FCF (U S) yield % | 11.5 | 17.1 | 12.0 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 6.4 |
| Dividend yield (net) % | 2.1 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
Source: Company accounts, LSEG Eikon, BS estimates. Metrics marked as ( BS) have had analyst adjustments applied. Valuations: based on an average share price that year, (E): based on a share price of NT$ 1,115.00 on 15-Oct-2026
Equities
Taiwan
Electric Components & Equipment
12-month rating
12m price target uy NT$1,250.00
Price (15 Oct 2026)
NT$1,115
RIC: 3406.TW G: 3406 TT
Trading data and key metrics
52-wk range NT$1,175.00-396.00
Market cap.
NT$126b/ S$3.88b
Shares o/s
113m (ORD)
Free float
64%
Avg. daily volume ('000)
4,799
Avg. daily value (m)
NT$4,247.6
Common s/h equity (12/26E)
NT$28.7b
P/ V (12/26E)
4.4x
Net debt to E ITDA (12/26E)
NM
| EPS (U S, diluted) (TWD) | U S | Cons. |
|---|---|---|
| 12/26E | 38.27 | 38.31 |
| 12/27E | 43.93 | 42.43 |
| 12/28E | 49.22 | 49.77 |
Randy Abrams
Analyst randy.abrams@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7338
Irene Chang
Associate Analyst irene.chang@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7280
Figure 1: U S vs. VA Consensus Q126A/Q326E and 2025A-28E
| (NT$m) | Q126 - Actual | Q226 - Actual | Q326E - UBSe | Q326E - VA | Q426E - UBSe | Q426E - VA | 2025 - Actual | 2026E - UBSe | 2026E - VA | 2027E - UBSe | 2027E - VA | 2028E - UBSe | 2028E - VA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6,141 | 5,682 | 7,813 | 7,840 | 7,340 | 7,873 | 24,989 | 26,977 | 27,536 | 29,584 | 30,097 | 32,266 | 31,934 |
| - QoQ / YoY | -14.1% | -7.5% | 37.5% | 38.0% | -6.1% | 0.4% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 6.1% |
| Gross profit | 2,061 | 1,884 | 2,717 | 2,765 | 2,530 | 2,745 | 8,125 | 9,192 | 9,455 | 10,163 | 10,222 | 11,081 | 11,176 |
| - Gross margin | 33.6% | 33.2% | 34.8% | 35.3% | 34.5% | 34.9% | 32.5% | 34.1% | 34.3% | 34.4% | 34.0% | 34.3% | 35.0% |
| Operating profit | 1,201 | 960 | 1,756 | 1,808 | 1,510 | 1,660 | 4,773 | 5,426 | 5,628 | 6,083 | 6,184 | 6,878 | 6,965 |
| - OP margin | 19.6% | 16.9% | 22.5% | 23.1% | 20.6% | 21.1% | 19.1% | 20.1% | 20.4% | 20.6% | 20.5% | 21.3% | 21.8% |
| Non-op profit | 39 | -142 | 67 | 127 | 152 | 110 | 217 | 116 | 224 | 520 | 388 | 520 | 380 |
| Pre-tax profit | 1,239 | 818 | 1,823 | 1,935 | 1,662 | 1,770 | 4,990 | 5,542 | 5,762 | 6,603 | 6,572 | 7,398 | 7,344 |
| Tax | -348 | -124 | -486 | -498 | -438 | -442 | -1,282 | -1,396 | -1,412 | -1,650 | -1,629 | -1,849 | -1,863 |
| - Tax rate | 28% | 15% | 27% | 26% | 26% | 25% | 26% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Net profit | 891 | 686 | 1,336 | 1,435 | 1,224 | 1,326 | 3,702 | 4,138 | 4,338 | 4,953 | 4,935 | 5,549 | 5,476 |
| EPS (NT$) | 7.90 | 6.09 | 11.86 | 12.73 | 10.86 | 11.76 | 32.84 | 36.72 | 38.48 | 43.96 | 43.78 | 49.25 | 48.58 |
Source: Company data, BSe, Visible Alpha. Note: EPS shown in this table is basic EPS (reported EPS), which is different from the front-page recurring EPS due to a different calculation and methodology.
Figure 2: Genius has been outgrowing Largan since mid 2025
Source: Company data, B
Figure 3: Genius trading above the high end of its historical range as optics may add a new driver
Source: Refinitiv Workspace
Figure 4: Genius shares pricing in some anticipation of additional CPO earnings
Source: Refinitiv Workspace
Figure 5: Valuation table for the optical supply chain - trading at a wide range of 12-50x 2028 P/E
| Optical | Market cap | Price 15-Oct | EPS (LC$) | Earnings | growth | (%) | PE | (x) | ROE (%) | ROE (%) | ROE (%) | Historical P/E (x) | Historical P/E (x) | Historical P/E (x) | ||||
| Company | Ticker | (US$m) | (LC$) | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2026E | 2027E 2028E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | -1 Std Dev | Avg. | +1 Std Dev |
| Lens | ||||||||||||||||||
| Largan Genius | 3008.TW 3406.TW | 26,779 3,881 | 6,605.0 1,115.0 | 176.92 36.28 | 160.04 38.27 | 180.00 43.93 | 220.00 49.22 | -11.3 5.5 | 12.5 14.8 | 22.2 12.0 | 41.3 29.1 | 36.7 30.0 25.4 22.7 | 10.8 15.6 | 11.5 16.4 | 13.1 16.8 | 13.1 1.1 | 15.9 2.3 | 18.8 3.5 |
| Average | -2.9 | 13.6 | 17.1 | 35.2 31.0 | 26.3 | 13.2 | 14.0 | 14.9 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 11.2 | |||||||
| CPO Supply Chain | ||||||||||||||||||
| Lumentum | LITE.O | 75,830 | 896.3 | 2.12 | 2.12 | 2.12 | 2.12 | 434.4 | 160.4 | 51.7 | 52.0 | 45.5 30.8 | 27.1 | 36.1 | 37.9 | 8.5 | 19.4 | 30.3 |
| Corning | GLW.N | 123,279 | 140.9 | 2.57 | 2.57 | 2.57 | 2.57 | 30.6 | 43.5 | 47.3 | 42.9 | 30.0 20.1 | 22.9 | 31.8 | 41.1 | -168.2 | 32.9 | 234.0 |
| Coherent | COHR.N | 51,856 | 263.3 | 4.49 | 7.42 | 11.74 | 16.82 | 86.0 | 64.0 | 42.0 | 35.5 | 22.4 15.7 | 13.49 19.73 | 23.89 | 14.1 | 19.6 | 25.1 | |
| Senko | 9069.T | 418,851 | 2,384.0 | 119.98 | 140.89 | 159.70 | 171.34 | 19.5 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 16.9 14.9 | 13.9 | 10.43 | 11.35 | 11.60 | 9.2 | 11.6 | 14.0 |
| TFC | 300394.SZ | 243,614 | 223.3 | 2.02 | 3.32 | 5.36 | 6.88 | 65.5 | 60.7 | 28.5 | 67.3 | 41.7 32.5 | 46.99 | 47.41 | 42.10 | 21.2 | 33.9 | 46.5 |
| FOCI | 3363.TWO | 59,093 | 520.0 | 0.85 | -0.03 | 10.95 | 43.01 | n.m. | n.m. | 292.0 | n.m. | 47.5 12.1 | -2.00 | 29.03 | 50.90 | 52.9 | 115.9 | 178.9 |
| EZconn | 6442.TW | 125,999 | 1,540.0 | 20.95 | 62.01 | 130.00 | n.a | 206.9 | 109.6 n.a. | 24.8 | 11.8 | n.a. | 56.10 63.90 | n.a | 12.9 | 23.7 | 34.5 | |
| Himax | HIMX.N | 2,089 | 12.0 | 0.32 | 0.52 | 1.01 | 1.96 | 62.3 | 88.2 | 93.5 | 22.9 | 11.8 | 6.1 | 10.46 14.47 | 26.13 | 0.6 | 21.5 | 42.3 |
| Browave | 3163.TWO | 57,160 | 604.0 | 4.36 | 9.33 | 21.17 | n.a | 114.1 | 126.9 | n.a. | 64.7 | 28.5 n.a. | 22.24 | 38.60 | n.a | 10.1 | 32.2 | 54.2 |
| VisEra | 6789.TW | 140,052 | 440.0 | 3.60 | 6.13 | 7.45 | 8.95 | 70.9 | 21.5 | 20.2 | 71.7 | 59.1 49.2 | 10.74 | 13.34 | 12.25 | 31.3 | 50.4 | 69.6 |
| Average | 121.1 | 76.4 | 72.8 | 44.3 | 31.3 22.5 | 21.8 | 30.6 | 30.7 | -0.7 | 36.1 | 72.9 | |||||||
| Optical Average | 90.0 | 60.5 | 58.3 | 44.6 | 33.0 25.2 | 19.7 | 26.6 | 26.3 | 1.3 | 30.5 | 59.8 |
Source: Company data, BSe, Refinitiv Workspace; Largan, Genius, Lumentum and Coherent are BSe, with the remainder based on consensus data.
Figure 6: U S upside / downside / base case scenarios
| 2025 | New UBS - 2026 | New UBS - 2027 | New UBS - 2028 | Upside Case - 2026 | Upside Case - 2027 | Upside Case - 2028 | Downside Case - 2026 | Downside Case - 2027 | Downside Case - 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base smartphone business | Base smartphone business | Base smartphone business | Base smartphone business | Base smartphone business | Base smartphone business | Base smartphone business | Base smartphone business | Base smartphone business | Base smartphone business | Base smartphone business |
| Sales | $24,989 | $26,977 | $29,584 | $32,266 | $27,516 | $30,767 | $33,556 | $26,168 | $28,104 | $30,652 |
| YoY Growth | 7.8% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 9.1% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 9.1% |
| Gross Profit | $8,125 | $9,192 | $10,163 | $11,081 | $9,541 | $10,939 | $11,927 | $8,759 | $9,374 | $10,220 |
| GM% | 32.5% | 34.1% | 34.4% | 34.3% | 34.7% | 35.6% | 35.5% | 33.5% | 33.4% | 33.3% |
| Opex | $3,352 | $3,766 | $4,080 | $4,203 | $3,804 | $4,162 | $4,287 | $3,704 | $3,968 | $4,088 |
| Op Profit | $4,773 | $5,426 | $6,083 | $6,878 | 5,737 | 6,777 | 7,640 | 5,055 | 5,406 | 6,133 |
| OpM% | 19.1% | 20.1% | 20.6% | 21.3% | 20.8% | 22.0% | 22.8% | 19.3% | 19.2% | 20.0% |
| Non-Op | $217 | $116 | $520 | $520 | $116 | $520 | $520 | $116 | $520 | $520 |
| Pretax | $4,990 | $5,542 | $6,603 | $7,398 | $5,853 | $7,297 | $8,160 | $5,171 | $5,926 | $6,653 |
| Tax Rate | 26% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Net income | $3,702 | $4,138 | $4,953 | $5,549 | $4,370 | $5,474 | $6,121 | $3,860 | $4,445 | $4,990 |
| EPS | $32.84 | $36.72 | $43.96 | $49.25 | $38.79 | $48.58 | $54.32 | $34.26 | $39.45 | $44.29 |
| Shares | 113 | 113 | 113 | 113 | 113 | 113 | 113 | 113 | 113 | 113 |
| EPS vs. base case | 5.6% | 10.5% | 23.6% | -6.7% | -10.3% | 0.8% | ||||
| Current Price $1,060 | Current Price $1,060 | Current Price $1,060 | Current Price $1,060 | Current Price $1,060 | Current Price $1,060 | Current Price $1,060 | Current Price $1,060 | Current Price $1,060 | Current Price $1,060 | Current Price $1,060 |
| P/E | 15 | 15 | 12 | |||||||
| Implied Share Price | $745 | $815 | $529 | |||||||
| CPO Expected Value | CPO Expected Value | CPO Expected Value | CPO Expected Value | CPO Expected Value | CPO Expected Value | CPO Expected Value | CPO Expected Value | CPO Expected Value | CPO Expected Value | CPO Expected Value |
| EPS | $12.70 | $36.89 | $0.29 | |||||||
| EPS vs. base case | 190.4% | -97.8% | ||||||||
| P/E | 40 | 42 | 38 | |||||||
| Implied Valuation | $505 | $1,550 | $11 | |||||||
| Total Genius | Total Genius | Total Genius | Total Genius | Total Genius | Total Genius | Total Genius | Total Genius | Total Genius | Total Genius | Total Genius |
| Implied Share Price | $1,250 | $2,365 | $540 | |||||||
| Upside/Downside | 18% | 123% | -49% |
Source: Company data, BSe
Forecast returns
| Forecast price appreciation | 12.1 |
|---|---|
| Forecast dividend yield | 1.5 |
| Forecast stock return | 13.6 |
| Market return assumption | 6.3 |
| Forecast excess return | 7.3 |
Company Description
Founded in 1989, Genius Electronic Optical (GSEO) is a leading global manufacturer of camera lenses, providing full service optical solutions, including mobile lenses, automotive lenses and AR/VR optics. Its production sites are in Taichung (one plant) and Xiamen (two plants). The Taichung plant mainly manufactures VR lenses, while the Xiamen plants produce compact lenses for consumer electronics. Optical lens products accounted for 73% of 2023 total revenue, and others include TOF lenses, flash lenses, VR lenses and LED lighting products. Its major client is Apple and it supplies lenses for iPhones and iPads.
U S EPS and Consensus EPS
The BS EPS is an adjusted diluted EPS metric. It is calculated using the BS analyst's interpretation of earnings suitable for valuation purposes divided by the diluted number of shares. This may differ to the way the consensus EPS metric has been calculated.
Valuation Method and Risk Statement
Our price target is based on PE-based sum-of-the-parts model.
Genius' growth is highly leveraged to the overall handset industry and could be affected by volatility in handset demand, as well as whether handset OEMs will continue upgrading their camera design. Genius' margins could be affected by increasing competition and the rise of new technologies, ASP pressure from customers and fluctuating material and labour costs.
Downside risks include competitors catching up in technology, yield rate issues for new products and uncertain iPhone demand.
Quantitative Research Review
BS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. The views for this month can be found below. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous BS Global Research reports; and (ii) where no applicable research report was published that month, the Quantitative Research Review which can be found at https://neo.ubs.com/quantitative, or contact your BS sales representative for access to the report or the Quantitative Research Team on ubs-quant-answers@ubs.com. A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your BS sales representative for details and pricing or the Quantitative Research Team on the email above.
Genius Electronic Optical
| Question | Response |
|---|---|
| 1. Is the industry structure facing the firm likely to improve or deteriorate over the next six months? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting worse, 3 = no change, 5 = getting better, N/A = no view) | 4 |
| 2. Is the regulatory/government environment facing the firm likely to improve or deteriorate over the next six months? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting tougher 3 = no change, 5 = getting better, N/A = no view) | 4 |
| 3. Over the last 3-6 months in broad terms have things been improving/no change/getting worse for this stock? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting a lot worse, 3 = not much change, 5 = getting a lot better, N/A = no view) | 4 |
| 4. Relative to the current CONSENSUS EPS forecast, is the next company EPS update likely to lead to: (1 = negative surprise vs consensus, 3 = in-line with consensus, 5 = positive surprise vs consensus expectations, N/A = no view) | 4 |
| 5. What's driving the difference? | |
| 6. Relative to YOUR current earnings forecast, is there relatively greater risk at the next earnings result of:(1 = downside skew risk to earnings, 3 = equal upside or downside risk to earnings, 5 = upside skew risk to earnings, N/A = no view) | 4 |
| 7. What's driving the difference? | |
| 8. Is there an upcoming catalyst for the company over the next three months? | Positive Catalyst |
| 9. Is there an actual or approximate date for the catalyst? | |
| 10. Is the catalyst date an actual or approximate date? | |
| 11. What is the catalyst? |