PDF 原檔：報告_MS_NB月報Databook_20260714_original.pdf
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58KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 1：五大 NB ODM（Quanta/Wistron/Others/Compal/Pegatron）月出貨量表（Jan-25–Jul-26E），含 Total／MoM%／YoY% 列 |
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原始內容
M July 14, 2026 09:00 PM GMT
Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific
Monthly Databook: Jun-26 shipments +10% vs. MSe; 2Q 8% y/y; 3Qe at -15% y/y
Key Takeaways
- Top five ODMs' June 2026 NB shipments were 12.0M units (+29% m/m, -8% y/y), 10% above our estimate.
- We estimate July 2026 NB builds at 8.6M units (-28% m/m, -20% y/y).
- We keep our 3Q26 NB build estimate largely unchanged at 28.9M units (-5% q/q, -15% y/y).
Overall June ODM notebook shipments came in 10% above our estimate:
Component constraints remain the key bottlenecks, forcing ODMs to prioritize higher-end, more profitable models. We forecast July NB builds at 8.6M (-28% q/q, -20% y/y), after strong quarter-end pull-ins. Overall 2Q notebook builds came in at 30.4M units (+4% q/q, -8% y/y), 4% above our estimate.
We keep our 3Q notebook build estimate largely unchanged at 28.9M units (-5% q/q, -15% y/y): After the stronger 2Q, despite us keeping 3Q builds largely unchanged, the builds imply a ~5% sequential decline, which is sub-seasonal vs the 15Y avg seasonality of +5% q/q in 3Q. Actual shipments will continue to depend on component availability, but we continue to hear about constraints and expect this to continue to cap low-end notebook model builds. We expect ODMs to provide quantitative guidance on 3Q notebook builds when they report 2Q earnings in early August.
Exhibit 1 : Monthly NB shipments for top five NB ODMs
| Shipment (unit: k) Quanta Wistron Others | Jan-25 2,800 1,500 | Feb-25 3,100 | Mar-25 4,900 | Apr-25 3,300 1,700 1,700 | May-25 3,800 | Jun-25 5,000 2,400 | Jul-25 4,000 | Aug-25 4,100 | Sep-25 4,600 | Oct-25E 3,500 | Nov-25 3,500 | Dec-25 3,900 2,600 2,000 | Jan-26 2,700 1,700 1,700 | Feb-26 2,000 | Mar-26 5,300 | Apr-26 3,500 | May-26 3,500 1,700 | Jun-26 4,500 | Jun-26E Diff. Jul-26E 3,500 29% 2,200 -9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,500 1,600 | 1,900 1,900 | 1,800 1,800 | 2,000 | 2,200 1,800 | 2,200 1,900 | 2,100 1,600 | 2,200 | 1,600 | 2,800 | 1,800 1,500 | 2,000 | 2,200 | 3,200 1,500 9% 1,500 | ||||||
| Compal 2,000 | 1,500 | 2,100 | 2,900 | 2,200 | 2,400 | 2,100 2,500 | 1,700 2,300 | 2,300 | 2,500 | 2,100 | 1,700 2,300 | 2,400 | 1,600 | 1,500 1,500 | 2,200 2,800 | 1,500 1,800 2,000 | 2,400 2,400 | 2,200 9% | 1,800 |
| Pegatron 610 Total 8,410 | 575 8,875 | 700 12,300 | 610 9,510 | 775 10,575 | 990 12,990 | 750 10,750 | 825 11,225 | 825 12,025 | 775 10,075 | 710 10,410 | 925 11,825 | 700 8,400 | 425 7,025 | 675 13,775 | 525 575 9,125 9,275 | 650 750 11,950 10,850 | -13% 10% | 550 8,550 | |
| MoM% Quanta -35% | 11% | 58% | -33% | 15% | 32% | -20% | 2% | 12% | -24% | 0% | 165% | 0% | 29% 0% | -29% | |||||
| Wistron | -17% | 0% | 27% | -11% | 6% | 33% | -17% | 10% | 0% | -5% | 5% | 11% 18% | -31% -35% | -26% -6% | -34% 75% -36% | -6% | 18% 29% | -25% | |
| Others -25% | 7% | 19% | -11% | 6% | 17% | -19% | 6% | 6% | -16% | 6% | 18% | -15% | -12% | 47% -32% | 0% | 60% 47% | -38% | ||
| Compal -13% | 5% | 38% | -24% | 9% | 4% | -8% | 0% | 9% | -16% | 10% | 4% | -33% | -6% | 87% -36% | 11% | 20% 10% | -25% | ||
| Pegatron -19% | -6% | 22% | -13% | 27% | 28% | -24% | 10% | 0% | -6% | -8% | 30% | -24% | -39% | -22% | 10% | 13% 30% | -15% | ||
| Total -25% | 6% | 39% | -23% | 11% | 23% | -17% | 4% | 7% | -16% | 3% | 14% | -29% | 59% -16% 96% | -34% | 2% | 29% 17% | -28% | ||
| YoY% Quanta -3% | 7% | 4% | 3% | -5% | -6% | 9% | -3% | -9% | -35% | 6% | -8% | -10% -30% | -20% | ||||||
| Wistron | 15% | 7% | 0% | 6% | 6% | 11% | 18% | -5% | 17% | 29% | 44% | -4% | 8% 47% | 6% | -6% | -17% -8% | -25% | ||
| 0% | 23% | 13% | 6% | 33% | 25% | 29% | 16% | -6% | 0% | 0% | 13% | 7% -6% | 14% | ||||||
| -9% | 12% -3% | -21% | -17% | 24% -17% | 0% | 6% | 6% | -25% | -15% | 4% | 13% | 16% -29% | -12% | -17% -17% | 5% -4% -12% | -12% -22% | |||
| Others Compal | -9% | 16% | -8% | -21% | -14% | -20% | -3% | -18% | -26% | ||||||||||
| Pegatron | 16% | 53% | 8% | 6% | 28% | -3% | -6% | 0% | 35% | 14% | 23% | 15% | -26% -4% | -14% | -24% | -27% | |||
| Total | 0% | 7% | 3% | -1% | -4% | 10% | 8% | -2% | -2% | 0% | 1% | 6% | 0% | -21% 12% | -4% | -12% | -34% -8% | -16% | -20% |
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research. E = Morgan Stanley Research estimates. "Others" are other leaders.
Exhibit 2 : Quarterly NB shipments for top five NB ODMs
| Shipment (unit: k) | 1Q24 | 2Q24 | 3Q24 | 4Q24 | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 2Q26E | Diff. | 3Q26E | 3Q26E | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quanta | 10,500 | 11,700 | 12,600 | 11,100 | 10,800 | 12,100 | 12,700 | 10,900 | 10,000 | 11,500 | 10,500 | 10% | 11,000 | 10,800 | 2% |
| Wistron | 4,600 | 5,100 | 5,200 | 5,300 | 4,900 | 5,900 | 6,400 | 6,900 | 6,100 | 5,500 | 5,700 | -4% | 4,700 | 5,500 | -15% |
| Others | 4,500 | 4,900 | 5,200 | 5,400 | 5,000 | 5,600 | 5,400 | 5,300 | 5,400 | 5,400 | 5,200 | 4% | 5,000 | 4,500 | 11% |
| Compal | 7,500 | 8,700 | 8,300 | 7,800 | 7,000 | 7,100 | 7,100 | 6,800 | 5,900 | 6,200 | 6,000 | 3% | 6,400 | 6,400 | 0% |
| Pegatron | 1,550 | 2,030 | 2,475 | 1,950 | 1,885 | 2,375 | 2,400 | 2,410 | 1,800 | 1,750 | 1,850 | -5% | 1,800 | 1,800 | 0% |
| Total | 28,650 | 32,430 | 33,775 | 31,550 | 29,585 | 33,075 | 34,000 | 32,310 | 29,200 | 30,350 | 29,250 | 4% | 28,900 | 29,000 | 0% |
| QoQ% | |||||||||||||||
| Quanta | 1% | 11% | 8% | -12% | -3% | 12% | 5% | -14% | -8% | 15% | 5% | -4% | 3% | ||
| Wistron | -13% | 11% | 2% | 2% | -8% | 20% | 8% | 8% | -12% | -10% | -7% | -15% | -4% | ||
| Others | 0% | 9% | 6% | 4% | -7% | 12% | -4% | -2% | 2% | 0% | -4% | -7% | -13% | ||
| Compal | -10% | 16% | -5% | -6% | -10% | 1% | 0% | -4% | -13% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 7% | ||
| Pegatron | -6% | 31% | 22% | -21% | -3% | 26% | 1% | 0% | -25% | -3% | 3% | 3% | -3% | ||
| Total | -5% | 13% | 4% | -7% | -6% | 12% | 3% | -5% | -10% | 4% | 0% | -5% | -1% | ||
| YoY% | |||||||||||||||
| Quanta | -3% | -7% | -4% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 1% | -2% | -7% | -5% | -13% | -13% | -15% | ||
| Wistron | 18% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 7% | 16% | 23% | 30% | 24% | -7% | -3% | -27% | -14% | ||
| Others | 2% | 0% | 6% | 20% | 11% | 14% | 4% | -2% | 8% | -4% | -7% | -7% | -17% | ||
| Compal | -1% | 0% | -11% | -6% | -7% | -18% | -14% | -13% | -16% | -13% | -15% | -10% | -10% | ||
| Pegatron | -9% | -2% | -1% | 18% | 22% | 17% | -3% | 24% | -5% | -26% | -22% | -25% | -25% | ||
| Total | 1% | -1% | -4% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 2% | -1% | -8% | -12% | -15% | -15% |
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research. E = Morgan Stanley Research estimates. "Others" are other leaders.
Update
Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+
Howard Kao
Equity Analyst
Howard.Kao@morganstanley.com
+886 2 2730-2989
Irene Yen
Research Associate
Irene.Yen@morganstanley.com
+886 2 2730-2869
Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+
Andy Meng, CFA
Equity Analyst
Andy.Meng@morganstanley.com
+852 2239-7689
Greater China Technology Hardware
Asia Pacific
Industry View
In-Line
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