PDF 原檔：報告_MS_Lumentum_20260812_original.pdf
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原始內容
M August 12, 2026 04:02 AM GMT
Lumentum Holdings Inc | North America
Easily Clearing a Challenging Bar
| What's Changed Lumentum Holdings | From | To |
|---|---|---|
| Price Target | $900.00 | $1,000.00 |
AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction
Unchanged
Impact to our thesis
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
LITE's FQ2 posted upside, coming near the top of investor expectations. Outlook continues to come up as pricing/mix improve and new businesses ramp. Q largely played out as previewed, with reaction more muted until more clarity on NPO timing/size, something not likely until later this year.
Key Takeaways
- LITE's FQ4 largely played out as expected, with gross margins at the top end of investor expectations.
- Commentary was positive about NPO traction / opportunity, though as expected, no formal deal announcement.
- Numbers come up meaningfully, though don't expect buyside to materially change.
- Remain positively biased in near term, though catalyst to achieve PT a more formal NPO announcement.
Gross margins continue to impress, getting benefit of pricing / mix / yields;
continue to need more clarity on NPO for next leg of appreciation. We have been far too conservative on LITE given perceptions that margin would eventually face pressure from capacity coming on in the space. Combination of better than expected demand, yield improvements and diversifying product base have continued to keep margins far higher than expectations, which potential FCC rules only serve to elongate (explaining in part the 40% run off bottom). So the question would be, why stay where you are, if it has been the wrong place? Similar to our preview, it is a perception of what the next catalyst is. The next catalyst for LITE is more formal contract / insight into how NPO opportunity plays out, and what type of margin profile that business would carry. We did not expect that level of detail on the quarter, did not get it, hence the more muted reaction post-market, with the company saying more formal announcements may not be made for a couple of quarters. We are biased more positively in the near term given we see little downside, particularly with potential FCC rules looming. However, we don't see a
Modest upside
Financial results versus consensus
Modest revision higher
Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS
Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC
| Meta A Marshall Equity Analyst Meta.Marshall@morganstanley.com | +1 212 761-0430 |
|---|---|
| Antonio Jaramillo Research Associate Antonio.Jaramillo@morganstanley.com | +1 212 761-4438 |
Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE.O, LITE US)
Telecom & Networking Equipment | United States of America
| Stock Rating | Equal-weight | Equal-weight | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry View | In-Line | |||
| Price target | $1,000.00 | $1,000.00 | ||
| Shr price, close (Aug 11, | 2026) | $820.59 | $820.59 | |
| Mkt cap, curr (mm) | $71,166 | $71,166 | ||
| 52-Week Range | $1,085.68-111.20 | |||
| ModelWare EPS ($) | 6.55 | 19.17 | 32.78 | 44.25 |
| EPS ($)** | 8.68 | 21.10 | 34.64 | 46.05 |
| Div yld (%) | - | - | - | - |
Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework
** = Based on consensus methodology
e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
| Quarterly EPS ($) | Quarterly EPS ($) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter | 2026 | 2027e Prior | 2027e Current | 2028e Prior | 2028e Current |
| Q1 | 1.1 | 3.58 | 4.22 | 6.14 | 7.49 |
| Q2 | 1.67 | 4.45 | 4.96 | 6.82 | 8.62 |
| Q3 | 2.37 | 4.93 | 5.55 | 7.34 | 8.98 |
| Q4 | 3.23 | 5.36 | 6.33 | 7.43 | 9.53 |
e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
Update
M
clear catalyst in the name until the fall and into OFC next year when we could get more clarity on additional NPO engagements (given the stock already hanging out high-teens CY28e buyside expectations).
What was meaningful on the quarter:
- Pump lasers continue to be a source of pricing. Pump lasers carry some of the highest gross margins in LITE's business. Leveraging position with 7080% off the market, the company continues to take price (noting LTA's will continue to mix in higher priced product). Business grew 80% Y/Y, with company expecting a 4x increase in the coming quarters. Positive for CIEN / NOK demand trends in NT.
- EML mix increasingly towards 200G; CW becoming greater portion of mix, but finding ways to improve margins. LITE noted that they were on track to deliver 50% increase in EML units Y/Y by end of calendar year. However, with mix of 200G moving to 25% of units (and probably more like 40% of revenue, from 5%/10% unit / revenue 2 quarters ago, the company is getting a significant Y/Y bump from mix as they expand capacity. While CW mix is increasing, the company noted that margin gap between the two is closing (as they shrink the die size). Given company gets to use some of that internal capacity, there should be an additional margin benefit.
- Reaching mid-term targets almost 2 quarters early. When LITE threw out a $1.25bn mid-term target in March, they noted it would take 9-12 months to reach that target (meaning Dec 2026 to March 2027 quarter). However, they guided to accomplish this target in the September quarter, slightly ahead of investor expectations. They are doing this given seeing OCS ramp slightly ahead of expectations, as well as stronger 200G EML mix. In terms of the longer term $2bn target, which was supposed to be accomplished 9-12 months after the mid-term target, the company noted they do not need the Greensboro facility to be operational, with potential to reach those targets in the September to December 2027 quarter time frame.
- NPO opportunity looking encouraging, but nothing formal just yet. As we noted during the quarter and in our preview, much has been made of NPO vs. CPO, with questions about how attractive the opportunity is vs. CPO (where current engagement would use high powered lasers). The company noted that they view NPO as additive, and that they are seeing a wide variety of engagements on NPO, even from their lead CPO customer. The company noted a wide array of laser types are being evaluated, from mid-power to high-power, but that one shouldn't naturally assume that competitive differentiation / margin opportunity is less with the mid-power lasers. The company expects there could potentially be an NPO announcement in the coming couple of quarters (what we would see as the catalyst for the name).
Margin upside and mix changes cause us to raise estimates. LITE's FQ4 revenue / non-GAAP gross margins / EPS were $1,006mm / 50.4% / $3.23 vs. expectations of $987mm / 48.9% / $2.99. Upside largely came from OCS expects, with margin upside coming from EML mix, pricing on pump lasers, OCS ramping faster than expected. As a result of upside we are seeing, we are raising our estimates, most meaningfully on gross margins, particularly on OCS/telco. Our FQ1 / FY27 revised
M
revenue / non-GAAP gross margins / EPS are now $1,251mm / 51.5% / $4.22 and $6,224mm / 52.2% / $21.10 vs. $1,122mm / 50.4% / $3.89 and $5,668mm / 51.2% / $18.37 previously.
PT to $1,000 from $900; remain EW, see catalyst towards PT in next couple of quarters as NPO / CPO ecosystem comes together. We are raising our PT to incorporate higher overall estimates and margins of the business continuing to outperform (with increased confidence in margins given potential FCC rules). Our multiples come in slightly, as our estimates get closer to buyside estimates. We widen our bull / bear cases to incorporate more multiple volatility given moves over the last couple of months. Our $1,000 PT represents 25x on our CY28e earnings power of ~$40 (from 30x $30). Our bear case valuation represents $450 (from $500), reflecting 15x on our CY28e bear case earnings power of $30 (from 20x $25). Our bear case accounts for weakening in pricing conditions and a much slower CPO / OCS ramp. Our bull case valuation is $1,500 (from $1,125) and reflects 30x our CY28e bull case earnings power of $50 (from 25x $45), which continues to expect OCS and CPO ramps without any hiccups (and that pricing can continue to be raised). Biggest risk to our PT is a turn in AI ecosystem valuations, InP constraints, delays in next-gen GPU architectures and delays to adoption of NPO.
M
Analysis
Exhibit 1: Estimate Changes
| 2025A | Y/Y (%) | Q1-26A | Q2-26A | Q3-26A | Q4-26A | 2026A | Y/Y (%) | 2027E | Y/Y (%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Revenue | $1,645.0 | 21% | $533.8 | $665.5 | $808.4 | $1,006.3 | $3,014.0 | 83% | $6,223.8 | 106% |
| Old Revenue | $1,645.0 0% | 21% | $533.8 0% | $665.5 0% | $808.4 0% | $986.7 2% | $2,994.4 1% | 82% | $5,667.7 10% | 89% |
| %Change New Gross Profit New Gross Margin | $571.5 35% | 39% | $210.3 39.4% | $282.6 42.5% | $386.9 47.9% | $506.9 50.4% | $1,386.7 46.0% | 143% | $3,251.7 52.2% | 134% |
| Old Gross Profit Old Gross Margin %Change | $571.5 35% 0% | 39% | $210.3 39.4% 0% | $282.6 42.5% 0% | $386.9 47.9% 0% | $482.8 48.9% 5% | $1,362.6 45.5% 2% | 138% | $2,899.2 51.2% 12% | 113% |
| New Operating Income New Operating Margin Old Operating Income Old Operating Margin | $160.1 10% $160.1 10% | (2207%) (2207%) | $99.8 18.7% $99.8 18.7% | $167.7 25.2% $167.7 25.2% | $260.7 32.2% $260.7 32.2% | $368.8 36.6% $349.6 35.4% | $897.0 30% $877.8 29% | 460% 448% | $2,567.0 41% $2,250.0 40% | 186% 156% |
| New Adjusted EPS | $2.06 | 366% | $1.67 | $2.37 | $3.23 | $8.68 | 322% | $21.10 | 143% | |
| Old Adjusted EPS | $2.06 | 366% | $1.10 $1.10 | $1.67 | $2.37 | $2.99 | $8.42 | 310% | $18.37 | 118% |
| %Change | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8% | 3% | 15% |
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
M
Risk Reward - Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE.O) Risk Reward - Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE.O)
AI More Embedded Into Base Case, Greater CPO Adoption is Bull Case
$1,000.00 PRICE TARGET
25x CY28 P/E of ~$40. ~25x is a premium to historical trading range given AI growth outlook
$1,100.15
$1,400.00
MS PT
Mean
Morgan Stanley Estimates
Consensus Price Target Distribution
Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research
RISK REWARD CHART AND OPTIONS IMPLIED PROBABILITIES (12M)
Key:
Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull, Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 11 Aug 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either three-months' or one-years' time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here
BULL CASE
$1,500.00
~30x CY28 Bull Case Earnings Power (~$50)
CPO penetration greater than expected .
LITE able to achieve ~$50 in CY28 EPS in our bull case as multiple business lines ramp -- including CPO seeing far greater adoption in scale-up / out than expected in early days. Exert meaningful pricing pressure, which maintains through CY28. Multiple remains at premium given growth outlook, particularly on scale-up.
BASE CASE
$1,000.00
~25x CY28 P/E (~$40)
Broad - based AI growth . Ramps to EMLs, Telco (DCI), transceiver, OCS and CPO business concurrently. Margin benefit from EML constraints and higher blend of EML / OCS/ CPO. Our multiple is a premium to historical trading range given AI capex spend.
$600.00
EQUAL-WEIGHT THESIS
- Datacom positioning attractive, particularly with ramping customer sets, but questions remain on margin contribution and impacts to earnings power
- Key questions remain on magnitude and timeline of OCS ramp and length of EML shortage.
- ▪
- Upside to multiple likely limited by optical componentry being some of names most at risk from tariffs given intricate manufacturing that should be slower to move out of Asia, with LITE concentrated in Thailand
Risk Reward Themes
Secular Growth:
Positive
View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here
$450.00
15x CY28 Bear Case Earnings Power (~$30)
BEAR CASE
Product lines have trouble ramping . OCS and CPO do not ramp to expectations on expected timeline. EMLs demand/supply reach equilibrium sooner than expected, pressuring margins. More signs that EMLs will lose share to CW (Silicon Photonics). Multiple trades closer to traditional ranges.
M
Risk Reward - Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE.O)
KEY EARNINGS INPUTS
| Drivers | Jun 2026 | Jun 2027e | Jun 2028e | Jun 2029e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue ($, mm) | 3,014 | 6,224 | 10,027 | 13,318 |
| Gross Margin (%) | 46.0 | 52.2 | 53.6 | 53.8 |
| Operating Margin (%) | 29.8 | 41.2 | 43.8 | 45.2 |
| EPS Growth Y/Y (%) | 322.1 | 143.2 | 64.2 | 32.9 |
INVESTMENT DRIVERS
- Opportunities like 3D sensing still in early days
- ROADMs in early days of deployment in China
- Position as a consolidator as leverage levers more reasonable
GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE
Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate View explanation of regional hierarchies here
MS ALPHA MODELS
24 Month Horizon
3 Month Horizon
Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored Quintile
RISKS TO PT/RATING
RISKS TO UPSIDE
- Datacom ramps and revenue mix more attractive vs. expectations
- OCS ramps quickly, bringing additional revenue / profitability source
- AI demand remains strong, causing EML business to outperform and drive profitability
- CPO / NPO ramp faster than expected
RISKS TO DOWNSIDE
- EML pricing falls given oversupply on reduced AI demand
- CW takes share from EML
- Cloud Light hurts ability to improve margins
- Pushout in CPO timing
OWNERSHIP POSITIONING
Inst. Owners, % Active HF Sector Long/Short Ratio HF Sector Net Exposure
55.8%
2.1x
33.6%
Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund exposures held with MSPB. Information may be inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a particular sector: Long Exposure - Short Exposure) / (Across all sectors: Long Exposure - Short Exposure).
MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS
Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research
M
Financials
Exhibit 2: LITE: Income Statement
| Sep-24 Q1-25A | Dec-24 Q2-25A | Mar-25 Q3-25A | Jun-25 Q4-25A | Sep-25 Q1-26A | Dec-25 Q2-26A | Mar-26 Q3-26A | Jun-26 Q4-26A | Sep-26 Q1-27E | Dec-26 Q2-27E | Mar-27 Q3-27E | Jun-27 Q4-27E | Sep-27 Q1-28E | Dec-27 Q2-28E | Mar-28 Q3-28E | Jun-28 Q4-28E | Sep-28 Q1-29E | Dec-28 Q2-29E | Mar-29 Q3-29E | Jun-29 Q4-29E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Sales | 336.9 | 402.2 | 425.2 | 480.7 | 533.8 | 665.5 | 808.4 | 1,006.3 | 1,251.3 | 1,472.4 | 1,645.4 | 1,854.7 | 2,169.0 | 2,490.2 | 2,602.7 | 2,765.0 | 2,967.0 | 3,134.3 | 3,554.3 | 3,661.9 |
| %chg q/q | 9.3% | 19.4% | 5.7% | 13.1% | 11.0% | 24.7% | 21.5% | 24.5% | 24.3% | 17.7% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 16.9% | 14.8% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 13.4% | 3.0% |
| %chg y/y | 6.1% | 9.7% | 16.0% | 55.9% | 58.4% | 65.5% | 90.1% | 109.3% | 134.4% | 121.3% | 103.5% | 84.3% | 73.3% | 69.1% | 58.2% | 49.1% | 36.8% | 25.9% | 36.6% | 32.4% |
| Cost of Sales | 226.5 | 272.2 | 275.7 | 299.1 | 323.5 | 382.9 | 421.5 | 499.4 | 606.3 | 706.2 | 785.1 | 874.5 | 1,010.5 | 1,153.7 | 1,203.8 | 1,280.0 | 1,377.5 | 1,454.7 | 1,621.9 | 1,694.1 |
| Total Gross Profit | 110.4 | 130.0 | 149.5 | 181.6 | 210.3 | 282.6 | 386.9 | 506.9 | 645.0 | 766.2 | 860.3 | 980.2 | 1,158.4 | 1,336.5 | 1,398.9 | 1,485.0 | 1,589.5 | 1,679.6 | 1,932.5 | 1,967.9 |
| Total Gross Margin | 32.8% | 32.3% | 35.2% | 37.8% | 39.4% | 42.5% | 47.9% | 50.4% | 51.5% | 52.0% | 52.3% | 52.8% | 53.4% | 53.7% | 53.7% | 53.7% | 53.6% | 53.6% | 54.4% | 53.7% |
| R&D Expense | 62.7 | 62.4 | 63.3 | 67.6 | 69.0 | 69.9 | 78.4 | 87.5 | 88.8 | 101.6 | 110.2 | 120.6 | 136.6 | 151.9 | 153.6 | 157.6 | 163.2 | 166.1 | 181.3 | 179.4 |
| SG&A Expense | 37.7 | 35.9 | 40.1 | 41.7 | 41.5 | 45.0 | 47.8 | 50.6 | 55.1 | 63.3 | 69.1 | 76.0 | 86.8 | 97.1 | 98.9 | 102.3 | 106.8 | 109.7 | 120.8 | 120.8 |
| Total Op Expenses | 100.4 | 98.3 | 103.4 | 109.3 | 110.5 | 114.9 | 126.2 | 138.1 | 143.9 | 164.9 | 179.3 | 196.6 | 223.4 | 249.0 | 252.5 | 259.9 | 270.0 | 275.8 | 302.1 | 300.3 |
| Operating Income | 10.0 | 31.7 | 46.1 | 72.3 | 99.8 | 167.7 | 260.7 | 368.8 | 501.1 | 601.3 | 681.0 | 783.6 | 935.0 | 1,087.4 | 1,146.4 | 1,225.1 | 1,319.5 | 1,403.8 | 1,630.3 | 1,667.6 |
| Total Operating Margin | 3.0% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 15.0% | 18.7% | 25.2% | 32.2% | 36.6% | 40.0% | 40.8% | 41.4% | 42.2% | 43.1% | 43.7% | 44.0% | 44.3% | 44.5% | 44.8% | 45.9% | 45.5% |
| Interest and other income (expense) Interest expense | 4.6 - | 4.2 - | 2.9 - | 3.5 - | 3.7 - | 4.6 - | 9.6 - | 22.0 - | 14.5 - | 11.5 - | 11.6 - | 13.6 - | 16.4 - | 17.6 - | 16.1 - | 20.5 - | 29.0 - | 33.0 - | 32.9 - | 38.3 - |
| Income Before Taxes | 14.6 | 35.9 | 49.0 | 75.8 | 103.5 | 172.3 | 270.3 | 390.8 | 515.6 | 612.8 | 692.6 | 797.2 | 951.4 | 1,105.1 | 1,162.6 | 1,245.5 | 1,348.5 | 1,436.8 | 1,663.2 | 1,705.8 |
| Effective Tax Rate | 16.4% | 16.4% | 16.5% | 16.5% | 16.5% | 16.5% | 16.5% | 16.5% | 16.5% | 16.5% | 16.5% | 16.5% | 16.5% | 16.5% | 16.5% | 16.5% | 16.5% | 16.5% | 16.5% | 16.5% |
| Pro Forma Net Income to Common | 12.2 | 30.0 | 40.9 | 63.3 | 86.4 | 143.9 | 225.7 | 326.3 | 430.5 | 511.6 | 578.3 | 665.6 | 794.4 | 922.7 | 970.7 | 1,039.9 | 1,126.0 | 1,199.7 | 1,388.7 | 1,424.3 |
| AT Stock Comp Expense | 35.6 | 38.8 | 62.8 | 40.0 | 46.5 | 47.9 | 46.8 | 50.1 | 50.1 | 50.1 | 50.1 | 50.1 | 50.1 | 50.1 | 50.1 | 50.1 | 50.1 | 50.1 | 50.1 | 50.1 |
| PF Net Income w/Stock Comp | (23.4) | (8.8) | (21.9) | 23.3 | 276.2 | 744.3 | 872.6 | 920.6 | 1,149.6 | 1,338.6 | 1,374.2 | |||||||||
| 68.3 | 68.9 | 69.3 | 69.6 | 39.9 | 96.0 | 178.9 | 380.4 | 461.5 | 528.2 | 615.5 | 989.8 | 1,075.9 | ||||||||
| Basic Shares Outstanding-GAAP | 68.3 | 68.9 | 72.2 | 72.0 | 70.3 | 71.1 | 71.5 | 84.6 | 84.6 | 84.6 | 84.6 | 84.6 | 84.6 | 84.6 | 84.6 | 84.6 109.1 | 84.6 | 84.6 | 84.6 112.1 | 84.6 113.1 |
| Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding-GAAP Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding-Non-GAAp | 69.1 | 71.6 | 69.3 | 72.0 | 78.3 78.3 | 87.8 | 96.2 95.2 | 84.6 101.1 | 102.1 | 103.1 103.1 | 104.1 104.1 | 105.1 105.1 | 106.1 106.1 | 107.1 | 108.1 | 109.1 | 110.1 | 111.1 111.1 | 1.0 | 113.1 |
| Change | 1.3 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 86.1 5.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 102.1 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 107.1 1.0 | 108.1 1.0 | 1.0 | 110.1 1.0 | 1.0 | 112.1 | 1.0 |
| $0.57 | $3.23 | $4.22 | $4.96 | $6.33 | $7.49 | ($0.46) | ($0.46) | $10.23 | $10.80 | $12.39 | $12.59 ($0.44) | |||||||||
| Pro Forma EPS | $0.18 ($0.52) | $0.42 | $0.88 | $1.10 | $1.67 | $2.37 | ($0.49) | ($0.49) | $5.55 | $8.62 | $8.98 | $9.53 | ||||||||
| PF EPS Adj for Stock Comp | ($0.34) | ($0.12) | ($0.30) | $0.32 | ($0.56) | $1.88 | $2.73 | $3.73 | $4.48 | $5.07 | $7.01 | $8.15 | $8.52 | $9.07 | $9.77 | $10.35 | $11.94 | $12.15 | ||
| PF EPS w/ Stock Comp | ($0.54) | ($0.87) | ($0.56) | ($0.59) | ($0.49) | ($0.50) | ($0.48) | ($0.48) | ($0.47) | ($0.47) | ($0.46) | ($0.45) | ($0.45) | |||||||
| Exp | $0.51 | $1.11 | $5.86 |
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
Exhibit 3: LITE: Revenue Breakdown
| Sep-24 Q1-25A | Dec-24 Q2-25A | Mar-25 Q3-25A | Jun-25 Q4-25A | Sep-25 Q1-26A | Dec-25 Q2-26A | Mar-26 Q3-26A | Jun-26 Q4-26A | Sep-26 Q1-27E | Dec-26 Q2-27E | Mar-27 Q3-27E | Jun-27 Q4-27E | Sep-27 Q1-28E | Dec-27 | Q2-28E | Mar-28 Q3-28E | Jun-28 Q4-28E | Sep-28 Dec-28 Q1-29E Q2-29E | Mar-29 Q3-29E | Jun-29 | Jun-29 | Q4-29E | Jun-29 | Jun-29 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Segment Revenue (New) Cloud & Networking | 282.3 | 339.2 | 365.2 | 424.1 | 477.4 | 600.4 | 745.4 | 949.7 | 1,192.9 | 1,405.1 | 1,578.2 | 1,794.4 | 2,108.6 | 2,420.5 | 2,530.9 | 2,700.5 | 2,904.4 | 3,062.1 | 3,479.9 | 3,595.2 | 3,595.2 | 3,595.2 | 3,595.2 | 3,595.2 |
| Industrial Tech | 54.6 | 63.0 | 60.0 | 56.6 | 56.4 | 65.1 | 63.0 | 56.6 | 58.4 | 67.4 | 67.2 | 60.3 | 60.4 | 69.7 | 71.8 | 64.5 62.5 | 72.2 | 74.4 | 66.8 | 66.8 | 66.8 | 66.8 | 66.8 | |
| Total Revenue | 336.9 | 402.2 | 425.2 | 480.7 | 533.8 | 665.5 | 808.4 | 1,006.3 | 1,251.3 | 1,472.4 | 1,645.4 | 1,854.7 | 2,169.0 | 2,490.2 | 2,602.7 | 2,765.0 2,967.0 | 3,134.3 | 3,554.3 | 3,661.9 | 3,661.9 | 3,661.9 | 3,661.9 | 3,661.9 | |
| NEW SEGMENTATION Components | 231.4 | 263.7 | 300.8 | 320.4 | 379.2 | 443.7 | 533.3 | 649.4 | 775.1 | 926.5 | 1,033.3 | 1,138.2 | 1,345.1 | 1,515.5 | 1,634.5 | 1,742.3 1,022.7 | 1,977.8 | 2,375.3 | 2,387.2 | 2,387.2 | 2,387.2 | 2,387.2 | 2,387.2 | |
| Systems | 105.5 | 138.5 | 124.4 | 160.3 | 154.6 | 221.8 | 275.1 | 356.9 | 476.2 | 545.9 | 612.1 | 716.5 | 823.8 | 974.7 | 968.2 | 1,845.8 1,121.2 | 1,156.5 | 1,179.0 | 1,274.7 | 1,274.7 | 1,274.7 | 1,274.7 | 1,274.7 | |
| Total | 336.9 | 402.2 | 425.2 | 480.7 | 533.8 | 665.5 | 808.4 | 1,006.3 | 1,251.3 | 1,472.4 | 1,645.4 | 1,854.7 | 2,169.0 | 2,490.2 | 2,602.7 | 2,765.0 2,967.0 | 3,134.3 | 3,554.3 | 3,661.9 | 3,661.9 | 3,661.9 | 3,661.9 | 3,661.9 | |
| Revenue Mix | 84% | 86% | 88% | 98% 98% | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Cloud & Networking Datacom Cloud Light | 84% 16% | 14% 19% | 16% 18% | 20% 25% | 89% 21% 23% | 90% 21% 25% | 92% 21% 25% | 94% 21% | 95% | 95% | 96% 22% | 97% 23% 25% 12% | 97% 22% 24% | 97% 21% | 97% 21% | 19% 23% | 98% 18% | 98% 19% 19% | 98% 16% 20% 13% | 98% 16% 20% 13% | 98% 16% 20% 13% | 98% 16% 20% 13% | 98% 16% 20% 13% | |
| OCS CPO Telecom NPTN Industrial Tech Industrial & Consumer 3D Sensing (w/in | 0% 7% | 5% 5% | 49% 0% 14% 5% 2% 9% | 115.0% | 45% 0% 11% 3% 2% 7% | 42% 0% 10% 3% 3% | 1% 39% 0% 8% 3% 1% | 9% 3% 38% 0% 6% | 21% 25% 11% | 21% 24% 10% 11% | 25% 10% 11% 27% | 11% 26% 0% 3% 1% | 13% 17% 22% 0% 3% 1% | 14% 18% 20% 0% 3% | 22% 14% 21% 20% | 20% 22% | 22% 14% | 1% 1% | 2% 1% 0% 2% | 0% 2% 1% | 0% 2% 1% | 0% 2% 1% | 0% 2% 1% | 0% 2% 1% |
| 11% 56% 16% | 51% 0% 16% | 44% 0% 12% 4% | 2% 1% | 6% | 23% | 6% 5% | 0% | 23% | 13% 14% 22% 3% | 24% 19% 0% 2% | 0% 2% | 26% 30% 17% 0% | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% | |||||||
| C&I) | 4% | 11% | 100% | 2% 1% | 32% 0% 1% | 29% | 0% | 20% 0% 2% 1% 1% | 18% | 0% 1% | 0% 1% | 0% 1% | 0% 1% | 0% 1% | ||||||||||
| Lasers | 100% | 100% | 100% | 24% | 27% | 5% 1% | 0% 4% 1% | 1% | 1% 1% 2% | 5% | 7% 4% | 23% | 14% | 3% -13% 12% | 3% -13% 12% | 3% -13% 12% | 3% -13% 12% | 3% -13% 12% | ||||||
| 9% 100% | 100% | 8% | 5% | 4% 100% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 0% 2% | 0% 2% | 1% 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2% | 7% 100% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% 100% | 2% 100% | ||||||||||||||||
| Q/Q Change | 20% | 16% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 8% | |||||||||||||||
| 100% | 100% | 5% 0% 1% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cloud & Datacom Cloud Light | 11% 3% -31% | 4% 100% | 8% 21% | 39% | 13% | 26% 24% 35% | 22% 22% 375% | 23% | 26% 26% | 18% | 18% | 15% 12% | 2% -1% | 0% 11% | -3% 9% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | ||||
| Networking OCS | 0% | 56% | 21% 3% | 108% | 16% 92% | 31% | 16% 16% | 12% 18% 14% | 14% 13% | 12% 9% | 13% | 7% | 9% 18% | 6% 15% 5% | 31% | 6% 7% | 6% 7% | 6% 7% | 6% 7% | 6% 7% | ||||
| CPO Telecom NPTN | 29% | 9% NA | 1% | 1% | 15% | 16% | 12% | 210% 21% | 51% 148% 5% | 11% 97% 6% | 11% 18% | 16% 26% | 30% | 29% | -1% | 5% 10% 7% | -1% NA | 3% NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | |
| Industrial Tech | NA 2% | NA | NA | NA | NA 15% | NA | NA | NA | NA | 5% | 13% | 72% | 24% 5% NA | 20% 3% NA | NA -10% | NA | 3% | -10% | -10% | -10% | -10% | -10% | ||
| Industrial & | 17% | 15% | -5% | -6% | -3% | -10% | NA | 7% NA -10% | 1% NA 0% | 15% | 3% | -3% | 15% | -9% | -9% | -9% | -9% | -9% | ||||||
| Consumer 3D Sensing (w/in Lasers | 88% -7% | -15% 33% 38% | -2% | -8% | 0% -2% | 14% | 3% | -9% | 3% | 15% 14% | 0% 3% | -9% | -6% | 14% 54% | 3% -50% | -9% -20% | -6% 63% | 14% 54% | 3% -50% | -20% -11% | -20% -11% | -20% -11% | -20% -11% | -20% -11% |
| C&I) | -50% -6% | -20% -4% | 63% 1% | 54% 16% | -50% -6% | -20% -11% | -6% 63% | 54% | -50% -2% | -20% -11% | 63% 3% | 16% | 3% | -11% | 16% | 3% | ||||||||
| Total Revenue | 6% | 13% | 21% | 24% | 8% | 16% | 13% | 17% | 15% | 5% | 6% | -2% | 6% | 13% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |||||
| 19% | 11% | 12% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Y/Y Change Cloud & | 9% | 18% | 16% | 67% | 25% | 24% | 112% | 7% | 37% 27.7% | 33% 7.1% | 33% 7.1% | 33% 7.1% | 33% 7.1% | 33% 7.1% | ||||||||||
| 23% | 45.0% 28.6% | 33.0% | 18% | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Datacom Cloud Light | 135.0% -12.0% | 80.0% | 69% 110.5% | 77% | 104% | 124% 125.0% | 150% 130.0% | 134% 120.7% | 113.9% 102.1% | 89% 97.4% 101.0% | 77% 75.2% 67.0% | 72% 68.0% | 60% 45.6% 40.9% | 50% 32.9% 30.4% | 38% 18.8% 32.3% | 27% 6.5% 18.7% | 16.6% | 21.6% | ||||||
| Networking | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| OCS CPO | -10.0% | 152.0% | 155.0% 165.0% | 97.1% | 152.0% | 117.1% | 101.5% | 61.9% | 74.7% | 46.7% | 31.4% | 31.4% | 31.4% | 31.4% | 31.4% | 31.4% | ||||||||
| Telecom NPTN | -22.1% | 9.6% | 17.0% | 43.3% | 220.0% | 115.5% | 1425.5% 3060.3% | 257.0% 1696.5% 42.0% | 134.0% 556.7% 26.0% | 134.7% 353.9% 186.7% 19.0% | 109.5% 190.4% | 181.1% 93.2% 17.0% 15.0% | 32.0% 94.5% 15.0% | 20.0% 77.7% 15.0% | 87.4% 15.0% | 87.4% 15.0% | 87.4% 15.0% | 87.4% 15.0% | 87.4% 15.0% | |||||
| Industrial Tech | -38% | -21% | 14% | 6% | 27.0% 3% | 35.0% | 50.0% | 80.0% | 65.0% | 52.0% | 7% | 7% | 21.0% 3% | 4% | 17.0% 7% | 7% | 4% | 4% 0.0% | 0.0% 0% | 4% 0.0% 0% | 4% 0.0% 0% | 4% 0.0% 0% | 4% 0.0% 0% | 4% 0.0% 0% |
| Industrial & Consumer | -39.0% | -37.5% 0% | -5.0% | -10.0% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 3% | 0.0% | 4% | ||||||||||||||
| C&I) | -46% | 25% | 0% | -25.0% | 0.0% | 5% | 4.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0% | 0.0% 0% | 0.0% 0% | 0.0% 0% | 0.0% 0% | ||||||||||
| -13% | 0% | 5.0% | 0% | 0% | 0.0% 0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | ||||||||||||
| 3D Sensing (w/in Lasers | -37.0% | -10.4% | 26.1% | 0% | -2.0% | 5.0% | 0% | 0.0% 0% | 5.0% | 0% | 5.0% | 32% | 32% | 32% | 32% | 32% | 32% | |||||||
| Total Revenue | 6% | 10% | 16% | 15.0% | 25.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% 90% | 109% | 134% | 5.0% 121% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% 49% | 37% | 5.0% 26% | 37% | |||||
| 56% | 58% | 65% | 104% | 84% | 73% | 69% | 58% |
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
| FY | FY 2024A | FY | FY | FY | FY | FY 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023A 1,767.0 | 1,359.2 | 2025A 1,645.0 | 2026A 3,014.0 | 2027E 6,223.8 | 2028E 10,026.8 | 13,317.5 |
| 3.2% | -23.1% | 21.0% | 83.2% | 106.5% | 61.1% | 32.8% |
| 1,003.5 | 949.1 | 1,073.5 | 1,627.3 | 2,972.1 | 4,648.1 | 6,148.1 |
| 763.5 | 410.1 | 571.5 | 1,386.7 | 3,251.7 | 5,378.7 | 7,169.4 |
| 43.2% | 30.2% | 34.7% | 46.0% | 52.2% | 53.6% | 53.8% |
| 249.0 | 261.0 | 256.0 | 304.8 | 421.2 | 599.7 | 690.0 |
| 175.3 | 156.7 | 155.4 | 184.9 | 263.5 | 385.1 | 458.2 |
| 424.3 | 417.7 | 411.4 | 489.7 | 684.8 | 984.8 | 1,148.2 |
| 339.2 | (7.6) | 160.1 | 897.0 | 2,567.0 | 4,393.9 | 6,021.2 |
| 19.2% | -0.6% | 9.7% | 29.8% | 41.2% | 43.8% | 45.2% |
| 29.6 | 42.5 | 15.2 | 39.9 | 51.2 | 70.6 | 133.2 |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 368.8 | 34.9 | 175.3 | 936.9 | 2,618.2 | 4,464.5 | 6,154.4 |
| 14.5% | 14.6% | 16.5% | 16.5% | 16.5% | 16.5% | 16.5% |
| 53.5 | 5.1 | 28.9 | 154.6 | 432.1 | 736.9 | 1,015.8 |
| 315.3 | 29.8 | 146.4 | 782.3 | 2,186.1 | 3,727.7 | 5,138.7 |
| 136.5 | 128.8 | 177.2 | 191.3 | 200.4 | 200.4 | 200.4 |
| 178.8 | (99.0) | (30.8) | 591.0 | 1,985.7 | 3,527.3 | 4,938.3 |
| 68.3 | 67.3 | 69.0 | 74.4 | 84.6 | 84.6 | 84.6 |
| 68.3 | 67.3 | 69.6 | 86.7 | 103.6 | 107.6 | 111.6 |
| 69.1 | 67.6 | 71.2 | 90.2 | 103.6 | 107.6 | 111.6 |
| (5.1) | (1.6) | 3.6 | 19.0 | 13.4 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| $4.56 | $0.44 | $2.06 | $8.68 | $21.10 | $34.64 | $46.05 |
| ($1.97) | ($1.91) | ($2.49) | ($2.12) | ($1.93) | ($1.86) | ($1.80) |
| $2.59 | ($1.47) | ($0.43) | $6.55 | $19.17 | $32.78 | $44.25 |
| FY 2023A | FY 2024A | FY 2025A | FY 2026A | FY 2027E | FY 2028E | FY 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,322.5 444.5 1,767.0 | 1,084.9 274.3 1,359.2 | 1,410.8 234.2 1,645.0 | 2,773.0 241.1 3,014.1 | 5,970.6 253.3 6,223.8 | 9,760.4 266.4 10,026.8 | 13,041.6 275.9 13,317.5 |
| 1,116.3 528.7 1,645.0 | 2,005.6 1,008.4 3,014.0 | 3,873.1 2,350.7 6,223.8 | 6,237.4 3,789.5 10,026.8 | - - 8,586.2 4,731.4 13,317.5 | ||
| -18% | 30% 67% 55% | 97% 135% 133% | 115% 114% 114% | 63% 53% 48% | 34% 15% 22% | |
| 9% -13% | 13% | 49% | 44% | 18% | 15% | |
| -38% | -15% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 4% | |
| -52% | -27% | -5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| -22% | -6% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 5% | |
| -23% | 21% | 83% | 106% | 61% | 33% |
M
Exhibit 4: LITE: Balance Sheet
| Sep-24 Q1-25A | Dec-24 Q2-25A | Mar-25 Q3-25A | Jun-25 Q4-25A | Sep-25 Q1-26A | Dec-25 Q2-26A | Mar-26 Q3-26A | Jun-26 Q4-26A | Sep-26 Q1-27E | Dec-26 Q2-27E | Mar-27 Q3-27E | Jun-27 Q4-27E | Sep-27 Q1-28E | Dec-27 Q2-28E | Mar-28 Q3-28E | Jun-28 Q4-28E | Sep-28 Q1-29E | Dec-28 Q2-29E | Mar-29 Q3-29E | Jun-29 Q4-29E | Jun-29 Q4-29E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assets | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Cash and cash equivalents | 489.2 | 479.7 | 516.4 | 520.7 | 772.9 | 657.7 | 2,617.8 | 2,043.5 | 1,804.6 | 2,070.2 | 2,337.5 | 2,814.2 | 2,670.7 | 2,412.8 | 3,826.5 | 4,695.4 | 4,896.6 4,661.5 | 6,322.9 | 7,481.1 | 7,481.1 | |
| Short-term investments | 426.9 | 417.0 | 350.3 | 356.4 | 348.9 | 497.6 | 554.5 | 694.9 | 694.9 | 694.9 | 694.9 | 694.9 | 694.9 | 694.9 | 694.9 | 694.9 | 694.9 | 694.9 | 694.9 | 694.9 | 694.9 |
| Accounts receivable, net | 198.5 | 226.9 | 255.7 | 250.0 | 307.0 | 376.8 | 441.6 | 520.3 | 752.5 | 833.7 | 898.8 | 959.0 | 1,304.3 | 1,409.9 | 1,421.8 | 1,429.6 | 1,582.4 | 1,741.3 | 1,974.6 | 2,034.4 | 2,034.4 |
| Inventories, net | 403.3 | 402.3 | 422.9 | 470.1 | 531.6 | 570.4 | 632.8 | 691.6 | 808.4 | 941.6 | 1,046.8 | 1,166.0 | 1,347.4 | 1,538.3 | 1,605.1 | 1,706.7 | 1,836.6 | 1,939.6 | 2,162.5 | 2,258.7 | 2,258.7 |
| Prepayments and other current assets | 118.3 | 125.5 | 122.0 | 120.1 | 125.2 | 180.7 | 149.0 | 211.6 | 250.3 | 294.5 | 329.1 | 370.9 | 433.8 | 498.0 | 520.5 | 553.0 | 593.4 | 626.9 | 710.9 | 732.4 | 732.4 |
| Total current assets | 1,636.2 | 1,651.4 | 1,667.3 | 1,717.3 | 2,085.6 | 2,283.2 | 4,395.7 | 4,161.9 | 4,310.6 | 4,834.9 | 5,307.1 | 6,005.1 | 6,451.2 | 6,554.0 | 8,068.8 | 9,079.7 | 9,603.9 | 9,664.2 | 11,865.8 | 13,201.6 | 13,201.6 |
| Property, plant and equipment, net | 638.4 | 663.4 | 693.3 | 726.4 | 794.8 | 813.5 | 964.3 | 1,159.1 | 1,321.6 | 1,514.4 | 1,728.4 | 1,968.8 | 2,252.0 | 2,577.4 | 2,908.9 | 3,254.3 | 3,619.8 | 3,998.8 | 4,432.7 | 4,867.6 | 4,867.6 |
| Goodwill | 1,060.9 | 1,060.9 | 1,060.9 | 1,060.9 | 1,060.9 | 1,060.9 | 1,066.3 | 1,069.3 | 1,069.3 | 1,069.3 | 1,069.3 | 1,069.3 | 1,069.3 | 1,069.3 | 1,069.3 | 1,069.3 | 1,069.3 | 1,069.3 | 1,069.3 | 1,069.3 | 1,069.3 |
| Intangible, net | 573.9 | 534.9 | 499.8 | 465.1 | 430.7 | 396.7 | 362.9 | 326.9 | 296.9 | 266.9 | 236.9 | 206.9 | 176.9 | 146.9 | 116.9 | 86.9 | 56.9 | 26.9 | 16.9 | 6.9 | 6.9 |
| Deferred income taxes | 12.5 | 11.0 | 12.7 | 210.3 | 204.6 | 206.1 | 197.9 | 530.9 | 530.9 | 530.9 | 530.9 | 530.9 | 530.9 | 530.9 | 530.9 | 530.9 | 530.9 | 530.9 | 530.9 | 530.9 | 530.9 |
| Other non-current assets | 47.7 | 44.5 | 41.0 | 38.7 | 36.5 | 44.9 | 40.8 | 59.4 | 59.4 | 59.4 | 59.4 | 59.4 | 59.4 | 59.4 | 59.4 | 59.4 | 59.4 | 59.4 | 59.4 | 59.4 | 59.4 |
| Total Assets | 3,969.6 | 3,966.1 | 3,975.0 | 4,218.7 | 4,613.1 | 4,805.3 | 7,027.9 | 7,307.5 | 7,588.7 | 8,275.8 | 8,932.0 | 9,840.4 | 10,539.6 | 10,937.9 | 12,754.1 | 14,080.5 | 14,940.2 | 15,349.5 | 17,975.1 | 19,735.7 | 19,735.7 |
| Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Accounts payable | 163.1 | 184.7 | 195.2 | 225.2 | 278.6 | 347.4 | 392.7 | 567.4 | 404.2 | 549.3 | 610.6 | 825.9 | 673.7 | 89.7 | 936.3 | 1,208.9 | 918.3 | 113.1 | 1,261.5 | 1,599.9 | 1,599.9 |
| Accrued payroll and related expenses | 42.0 | 40.1 | 42.8 | 57.9 | 69.3 | 85.3 | 109.7 | 146.3 | 88.2 | 103.7 | 115.9 | 130.7 | 152.8 | 175.5 | 183.4 | 194.8 | 209.0 | 220.8 | 250.4 | 258.0 | 258.0 |
| Income taxes payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accrued expenses | 39.7 | 46.2 | 43.5 | 34.6 | 45.5 | 39.2 | 48.9 | 64.9 | 150.2 | 176.7 | 197.4 | 222.6 | 260.3 | 298.8 | 312.3 | 331.8 | 356.0 | 376.1 | 426.5 | 439.4 | 439.4 |
| Short term debt | 10.8 | 9.8 | 10.3 | 10.6 | 1,079.0 | 3,240.2 | 3,238.6 | 1,596.9 | 1,596.9 | 1,596.9 | 1,596.9 | 1,596.9 | 1,596.9 | 1,596.9 | 1,596.9 | 1,596.9 | 1,596.9 | 1,596.9 | 1,596.9 | 1,596.9 | 1,596.9 |
| Other current liabilities | 49.5 | 66.1 | 61.2 | 64.5 | 53.8 | 55.5 | 75.4 | 105.0 | 126.1 | 148.4 | 165.8 | 186.9 | 218.6 | 251.0 | 262.3 | 278.7 | 299.0 | 315.9 | 358.2 | 369.1 | 369.1 |
| Total current liabilities | 305.1 | 346.9 | 353.0 | 392.8 | 1,526.2 | 3,767.6 | 3,865.3 | 2,480.5 | 2,365.5 | 2,575.0 | 2,686.7 | 2,963.0 | 2,902.3 | 2,411.9 | 3,291.2 | 3,611.1 | 3,379.3 | 2,622.9 | 3,893.5 | 4,263.4 | 4,263.4 |
| Convertible Debt | 2,569.2 | 2,561.2 | 2,562.4 | 2,164.5 | 47.1 | 43.2 | 40.5 | 40.5 | 40.5 | 40.5 | 40.5 | 40.5 | 40.5 | 40.5 | 40.5 | 40.5 | 40.5 | 40.5 | 40.5 | ||
| 2,562.6 | 40.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Term Loan | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Other non-current liabilities | 199.4 | 185.7 | 180.1 | 128.6 | 141.6 | 144.0 | 146.0 | 142.6 | 142.6 | 142.6 | 142.6 | 142.6 | 142.6 | 142.6 | 142.6 | 142.6 | 142.6 | 142.6 | 142.6 | 142.6 | 142.6 |
| Total Liabilities | 3,073.7 | 3,093.8 | 3,095.5 | 3,084.0 | 3,832.3 | 3,958.7 | 4,054.5 | 2,663.6 | 2,548.6 | 2,758.1 | 2,869.8 | 3,146.1 | 3,085.4 | 2,595.0 | 3,474.3 | 3,794.2 | 3,562.4 | 2,806.0 | 4,076.6 | 4,446.5 | 4,446.5 |
| Redeemable Series A preferred stock | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - - | - | - | |
| Common stock; par value | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Additional paid-in capital | 884.2 | 862.0 | 868.3 | 1,125.6 | 771.6 | 837.1 | 2,966.3 | 4,633.8 | 5,029.9 | 5,507.6 | 6,052.0 | 6,684.2 | 7,444.2 | 8,332.8 | 9,269.7 | 10,276.2 | 11,367.7 | 12,533.4 | 13,888.3 | 15,279.1 | 15,279.1 |
| JDSU net investment | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - - | - | - | - |
| Accumulated other comprehensive (loss) income | 11.6 | 10.2 | 11.1 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 9.4 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | ||
| Total Shareholders' Equity | 895.9 | 872.3 | 879.5 | 1,134.7 | 780.8 | 846.6 | 2,973.4 | 4,643.9 | 5,040.0 | 5,517.7 | 6,062.1 | 6,694.3 | 7,454.3 | 8,342.9 | 9,279.8 | 10,286.3 | 11,377.8 | 12,543.5 | 13,898.4 | 15,289.2 | 15,289.2 |
| Total Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity | 3,969.6 | 3,966.1 | 3,975.0 | 4,218.7 | 4,613.1 | 4,805.3 | 7,027.9 | 7,307.5 | 7,588.7 | 8,275.8 | 8,932.0 | 9,840.4 | 10,539.6 | 10,937.9 | 12,754.1 | 14,080.5 | 14,940.2 | 15,349.5 | 17,975.1 | 19,735.7 |
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
Exhibit 5: LITE: Cash Flow Statement
| Sep-24 Q1-25A | Dec-24 Q2-25A | Mar-25 Q3-25A | Jun-25 Q4-25A | Sep-25 Q1-26A | Dec-25 Q2-26A | Mar-26 Q3-26A | Jun-26 Q4-26A | Sep-26 Q1-27E | Dec-26 Q2-27E | Mar-27 Q3-27E | Jun-27 Q4-27E | Sep-27 Q1-28E | Dec-27 Q2-28E | Mar-28 Q3-28E | Jun-28 Q4-28E | Sep-28 Q1-29E | Dec-28 Mar-29 Q2-29E Q3-29E | Jun-29 Q4-29E | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAAP Cash Flow Statement OPERATING ACTIVITIES: | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Net Income (loss) | (82.4) | (60.9) | (44.1) | 213.3 | 4.2 | 78.2 | 144.2 | (7,161.7) | 346.0 | 427.5 | 494.4 | 582.0 | 709.9 | 838.6 | 886.8 | 956.3 | 1,041.5 | 1,115.6 | 1,304.8 | 1,340.7 |
| Depreciation | 27.0 | 25.9 | 26.9 | 28.1 | 29.5 | 28.9 | 32.8 | 37.6 | 45.2 | 51.5 | 59.0 | 67.4 | 76.8 | 87.8 | 100.5 | 113.4 | 126.9 | 141.1 | 155.9 | 172.8 |
| Amortization of acquired technologies and other intangibl | 43.6 | 39.0 | 30.0 | 34.7 | 34.4 | 34.0 | 33.8 | 36.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| Stock-based compensation | 35.6 | 38.8 | 62.8 | 40.0 | 46.5 | 41.3 | 41.6 | 40.8 | 50.1 | 50.1 | 50.1 | 50.1 | 50.1 | 50.1 | 50.1 | 50.1 | 50.1 | 50.1 | 50.1 | 50.1 |
| Other non-cash (income) expenses | 5.9 | (6.7) | 47.7 | - | (266.9) | 281.8 | (1.8) | 7,757.4 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Changes in operating assets and liabilities: | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Accounts receivable | (3.8) | (28.4) | (28.8) | 5.7 | (57.0) | (69.7) | (64.8) | (78.7) | (232.2) | (81.2) | (65.1) | (60.2) | (345.4) | (105.6) | (11.8) | (7.9) | (152.8) | (158.9) | (233.3) | (59.8) |
| Inventories | (6.5) | 1.5 | (20.6) | (47.2) | (61.5) | (41.0) | (62.7) | (58.8) | (116.8) | (133.3) | (105.1) | (119.3) | (181.4) | (190.9) | (66.8) | (101.6) | (129.9) | (103.0) | (222.9) | (96.3) |
| Other current and non-current assets | (16.8) | 4.2 | 7.0 | 4.2 | (2.9) | (26.2) | 7.5 | (81.2) | (38.7) | (44.2) | (34.6) | (41.9) | (62.8) | (64.2) | (22.5) | (32.5) | (40.4) | (33.5) | (84.0) | (21.5) |
| Accounts payable | 32.6 | 6.1 | 10.5 | 30.0 | 53.4 | 26.5 | 29.5 | 174.7 | (163.2) | 145.1 | 61.3 | 215.3 | (152.2) | (584.0) | 846.6 | 272.6 | (290.6) | (805.2) | 1,148.3 | 338.5 |
| Income taxes payable | 7.2 | 21.3 | - | - | - | 1.5 | 16.4 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Deferred taxes, net | - | - | (1.7) | (197.6) | 5.7 | (5.7) | - | (333.0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accrued payroll and related expenses | 5.9 | (1.9) | 2.7 | 15.1 | 11.4 | 16.0 | 24.4 | 36.6 | (58.1) | 15.6 | 12.2 | 14.7 | 22.1 | 22.6 | 7.9 | 11.4 | 14.2 | 11.8 | 29.6 | 7.6 |
| Accrued expenses and other current and non-current liab | (8.7) | (14.6) | (13.2) | (57.1) | 13.2 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 42.2 | 106.4 | 48.8 | 38.2 | 46.2 | 69.4 | 70.9 | 24.8 | 35.8 | 44.6 | 36.9 | 92.7 | 23.8 |
| Net cash from Operations | 39.6 | 24.3 | 79.2 | 69.2 | (190.0) | 374.6 | 203.8 | 411.9 | (31.3) | 510.0 | 540.4 | 784.5 | 216.5 | 155.3 | 1,845.6 | 1,327.8 | 693.6 | 285.0 | 2,251.3 | 1,765.9 |
| INVESTING ACTIVITIES: | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Capital expenditures | (74.1) | (57.8) | (102.0) | (124.7) | (167.0) | (207.7) | (244.4) | (273.1) | (307.8) | (359.9) | (413.3) | (431.9) | (492.4) | (520.2) | (589.9) | (607.7) | ||||
| (40.2) | (42.5) | (47.1) | (458.9) | |||||||||||||||||
| Purchase / sale of securities | 26.8 | 9.5 | - | - | - | (139.4) | (58.8) 39.6 | (140.4) - | - - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Proceeds from the sales of a business and assets, net of Net cash from Investing Activities | 0.2 (47.1) | - (30.7) | - (42.5) | - (47.1) | - (57.8) | - (241.4) | (181.9) | (307.4) | (207.7) | - (244.4) | - (273.1) | - (307.8) | - (359.9) | (413.3) | - - (431.9) | - (458.9) (492.4) | - | - (520.2) | - (589.9) | - (607.7) |
| FINANCING ACTIVITIES: Convertible Proceeds | 500.0 | 754.7 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||||||||
| Other Cash Flow from Financing | 60.0 | (3.1) | - | - | - 500.0 | (1,003.1) | 1,938.2 | (678.8) | - | - | - | - | - - | - | - | - | - | - - | - | - |
| Net cash provided by financing activities | 60.0 | (3.1) | - - | - (17.8) | (248.4) | 1,938.2 | (678.8) - | - | - | - - | - | - | - | - | ||||||
| FX Impact | - 436.7 | - 489.2 | 479.7 | 516.4 | - 520.7 | - 772.9 | - 657.7 | 2,617.8 | - 2,043.5 | - 1,804.6 | - 2,070.2 | 2,337.5 | 2,670.7 | - 2,412.8 | - 3,826.5 | - 4,695.4 | - 4,896.6 | 4,661.5 | 6,322.9 | |
| Cash and cash equivalents at beg. of period | 52.5 | (9.5) | 36.7 | 1,960.1 | (574.3) | (238.9) | 2,814.2 | 869.0 | 201.2 | 1,158.2 | ||||||||||
| Net increase (decrease) in cash and cash equivalents | 4.3 | 252.2 | (115.2) | 1,804.6 | 265.6 | 267.3 | 476.7 | (143.5) | (257.9) | 1,413.7 | (235.1) | 1,661.4 | 7,481.1 | |||||||
| Cash and cash equivalents at end of period | 489.2 | 479.7 | 516.4 | 520.7 | 772.9 | 657.7 | 2,617.8 | 2,043.5 | 2,070.2 | 2,337.5 | 2,814.2 | 2,670.7 | 2,412.8 | 3,826.5 | 4,695.4 | 4,896.6 | 4,661.5 | 6,322.9 |
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
| FY | FY | FY | FY | FY | FY | FY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023A | 2024A | 2025A | 2026A | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
| 859.0 | 436.7 | 520.7 | 2,043.5 | 2,814.2 | 4,695.4 | 7,481.1 |
| 1,154.6 | 450.3 | 356.4 | 694.9 | 694.9 | 694.9 | 694.9 |
| 246.1 | 194.7 | 250.0 | 520.3 | 959.0 | 1,429.6 | 2,034.4 |
| 408.6 | 398.4 | 470.1 | 691.6 | 1,166.0 | 1,706.7 | 2,258.7 |
| 1,717.3 | 6,005.1 | 9,079.7 | 13,201.6 | |||
| 2,777.9 | 1,590.1 | 4,161.9 | ||||
| 489.5 | 572.5 | 726.4 | 1,159.1 | 1,968.8 | 3,254.3 | 4,867.6 |
| 695.1 | 1,055.8 | 1,060.9 | 1,069.3 | 1,069.3 | 1,069.3 | 1,069.3 |
| 459.2 | 617.5 | 465.1 | 326.9 | 206.9 | 86.9 | 6.9 |
| 116.3 | 10.7 | 210.3 | 530.9 | 530.9 | 530.9 | 530.9 |
| 94.1 | 85.3 | 38.7 | 59.4 | 59.4 | 59.4 | 59.4 |
| 4,632.1 | 3,931.9 | 4,218.7 | 7,307.5 | 9,840.4 | 14,080.5 | 19,735.7 |
| 169.4 | 126.3 | 225.2 | 567.4 | 825.9 | 1,208.9 | 1,599.9 |
| 39.4 | 36.1 | 57.9 | 146.3 | 130.7 | 194.8 | 258.0 |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51.2 | 52.4 | 34.6 | 64.9 | 222.6 | 331.8 | 439.4 |
| 311.6 | - | 10.6 | 1,596.9 | 1,596.9 | 1,596.9 | 1,596.9 |
| 62.2 | 54.5 | 64.5 | 105.0 | 186.9 | 278.7 | 369.1 |
| 2,500.0 | 2,503.2 | 2,562.6 | 40.5 | 40.5 | 40.5 | 40.5 |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| - 142.5 | 202.1 | 128.6 | 142.6 | 142.6 | 142.6 | 142.6 |
| 3,276.3 | 2,974.6 | 3,084.0 | 2,663.6 | 3,146.1 | 3,794.2 | 4,446.5 |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 1,351.6 | 947.9 | 1,125.6 | 4,633.8 | 6,684.2 | 10,276.2 | 15,279.1 |
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 4.1 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| 1,355.8 | 957.3 | 1,134.7 | 4,643.9 | 6,694.3 | 10,286.3 | 15,289.2 |
| 4,632.1 | 3,931.9 | 4,218.7 | 7,307.5 | 9,840.4 | 14,080.5 | 19,735.7 |
| FY 2023A | FY 2024A | FY 2025A | FY 2026A | FY 2027E | FY 2028E | FY 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (131.6) 106.6 149.0 | (546.5) 110.6 179.7 | 25.9 107.9 147.3 | (6,935.1) 128.8 138.2 | 1,850.0 223.2 120.0 200.4 | 3,391.6 378.5 120.0 200.4 | |
| 148.4 | - (438.7) | - | 4,802.6 596.8 80.0 - | |||
| 128.8 | 177.2 | 170.2 | 200.4 | |||
| 44.0 | 13.3 | 46.9 | 7,770.5 | - | - | |
| 83.2 | 72.3 | (55.3) | (270.2) | (470.6) | (604.8) | |
| (81.5) | 73.8 | (72.8) | (224.0) | (474.4) | (540.7) | (552.0) |
| (4.9) | 29.7 | (1.4) | (102.8) | (159.3) | (182.1) | (179.4) |
| (74.0) | (89.7) | 79.2 | 284.1 | 258.5 | 383.0 | 391.0 |
| (37.9) | 77.7 | 28.5 | 17.9 | - | - | - |
| - | - | (199.3) | (333.0) | - | - | - |
| (36.3) | (8.9) | 21.8 | 88.4 | (15.6) | 64.1 | 63.2 |
| 14.8 | (16.1) | (93.6) | 67.3 | 239.6 | 201.0 | 198.0 |
| 179.8 | 24.7 | 212.3 | 800.3 | 1,803.6 | 3,545.2 | 4,995.8 - |
| (861.6) | (700.9) | - | (38.0) | - | - | - - |
| (128.5) | (133.0) | (203.9) | (451.5) | (1,032.9) | (1,664.0) | (2,210.1) |
| 115.8 | 718.8 | 36.3 | (338.6) | - | - | - |
| 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 39.6 | - | - | - |
| (874.0) | (114.3) | (167.4) | (788.5) | (1,032.9) | (1,664.0) | (2,210.1) |
| - | - | - | 1,254.7 | - | - | - - |
| 263.0 | (332.7) | 56.9 | 256.3 | - | - | - |
| 263.0 | (332.7) | 56.9 | 1,511.0 | - | - | - |
| - | - | (17.8) | - | - | - | - - |
| 1,290.2 | 859.0 | 436.7 | 520.7 | 2,043.5 | 2,814.2 | 4,695.4 |
| (431.2) | (422.3) | 84.0 | 1,522.8 | 770.7 | 1,881.2 | 2,785.7 |
| 859.0 | 436.7 | 520.7 | 2,043.5 | 2,814.2 | 4,695.4 | 7,481.1 |
M
Risk Reward Reference links
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View explanation of regional hierarchies - GEG_Exhibit_Link.pdf
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