報告_MS_ABF載板_ATS財報影響_20261105

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校正紀錄（2026-11-07）：解析文字有漏字（如 Key Takeaways 的「to 0.5%」依圖 001 應為 3Q26 30.5%，與「+580bp q/q」自 24.7% 吻合；營收 +2 % q/q、EBITDA margin 區間等漏字未能還原，標待核對）；原文保留不改。

原始內容

M Update November 5, 2026 04:07 PM GMT

Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific

ABF Substrates - Implications of AT&S' 2QF26/27 Results

Key Takeaways

• Microelectronics EBIT margin up another 580bp q/q, to 0.5%, partly from pricing; positive read for ABF peers Unimicron and NYPCB.
• Customers' commitments underpin €1.5-2.0bn Kulim expansion. Signals tight supply, multi-year visibility.

Results:

• AT&S (ATSV.VI, Not Covered) reported C Q revenue of €682mn (+24% q/q): Electronics Solutions (+26% q/q) and Microelectronics (ABF; +2 % q/q).
• C Q/F2Q Microelectronics (ABF) EBIT margin increased another 580bp q/q, to 0.5%, which management attributed to higher volumes, better product mix and an improved pricing environment.

Guidance:

• Revenue: +45-55% y/y, unchanged.
• EBITDA margin: + 2- 7%, unchanged.
• AT&S expects its ongoing capacity expansion for the Microelectronics business to have a positive impact on revenue and earnings already in the current fiscal year.

Capacity expansion:

• In June (link), AT&S announced the expansion of its production site in Kulim, based on agreements with its customer AMD (covered by Joseph Moore) and another leading technology company.
• AT&S reaffirmed that the planned investments of €1.5-2.0bn, supported by long-term customer commitments, will provide additional capacity to meet growing demand for advanced IC substrates.
• In September (link), AT&S announced an expanded collaboration with Marvell (covered by Joseph Moore) to further increase advanced IC substrate capacity for next-generation AI and cloud infrastructure as well.

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+

Howard Kao

Equity Analyst

H ward.Ka @m rganstanley.c m

+886 2 2730-2989

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Andy Meng, CFA

Equity Analyst

Andy.Meng@m rganstanley.c m

+852 2239-7689

Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+

Irene Yen

Equity Analyst Irene.Yen@m rganstanley.c m

Greater China Technology Hardware

Asia Pacific

Industry View In-Line

+886 2 2730-2869

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M Update

Exhibit : AT&S EBIT margins by pr duct segment

S urce: C mpany data

M Update

Valuation Methodology and Risks

Unimicron (3037.TW)

Base case, residual income (RI) valuation model, which we think derives the most accurate value of the firm given that it takes into account cost of equity. We use a cost of equity of 9.2% [risk-free rate of 1% (10-year Taiwan government note yield), equity risk premium of 8.7%, and a beta of 1.0], a medium-term growth rate of 14%, and a terminal growth rate of %.

Risks to Upside

• n Better-than-expected ABF substrate demand from PC and server customers
• n Capex cuts; halt to its capacity expansion plan
• n Continued yield issues of alternative technology that doesn't require substrate (e.g., CoWoP)

Risks to Downside

• n Sudden demand shortfall
• n Technological change that would not require ABF substrates
• n Intensifying competition
• n Yield issues or production hiccups when ramping new capacity

Nan Ya PCB ( 046.TW)

Base case, residual income (RI) valuation model, which we think derives the most accurate value of the firm given that it takes into account cost of equity. We use a cost of equity of 9. % [risk-free rate of 1% (10-year Taiwan government note yield), equity risk premium of 8.7%, and a beta of 1.0], a medium-term growth rate of 17%, and a terminal growth rate of %.

Risks to Upside

• n Better-than-expected ABF and BT demand
• n Faster-than-expected pickup in AI and 5G demand
• n Stronger-than-expected ASP hike
• n Continued yield issues of alternative technology that doesn't require substrate (e.g. CoWoP)

Risks to Downside

• n Sudden demand shortfall, creating headwinds for ABF substrate demand and pricing
• n Technological change that would not require ABF substrates
• n Intensifying competition

M Update

INDUSTRY COVERAGE: Greater China Technology Hardware

M Update

St ck Ratings are subject t change. Please see latest research f r each c mpany.

• Hist rical prices are n t split adjusted.

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