PDF 原檔：報告_GS_鴻勁7769_3Q26_20261029_original.pdf
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-10-29）
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
報告_GS_鴻勁7769_3Q26_20261029_001.png |
45.2KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 5「Taiex vs. Hon Precision」雙線圖（Taiex 左軸 0-54,000、鴻勁右軸 NT$ 0-9,000），Nov-24 至 Oct-26，鴻勁 2026 年中高點約 NT$8,000+ 後回落 |
報告_GS_鴻勁7769_3Q26_20261029_002.png |
45.5KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 6「Forward P/E」：股價對 10x／20x／30x／40x／50x P/E 帶，Nov-24 至 Oct-26 |
報告_GS_鴻勁7769_3Q26_20261029_003.png |
35.6KB | 真資料圖 | Forward P/B 區間圖（5x／7x／10x／13x／16x 線與股價），Nov-24 至 Oct-26（圖無標題，對應 Exhibit 7） |
報告_GS_鴻勁7769_3Q26_20261029_004.png |
41.9KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 8「P/B vs. ROE」：ROE（左軸長條，0-100%）與 Fwd P/B（右軸折線，0-20x），Nov-24 至 Oct-26，P/B 2026 年中高點約 20x |
報告_GS_鴻勁7769_3Q26_20261029_005.png |
62.7KB | 真資料圖 | 「Goldman Sachs rating and stock price target history」：目標價事件標註 4000／5000／5700／12000／12500，Covered by Evelyn Yu as of Nov 23, 2025；資料至 9/30/2026 |
原始內容
[讀者資訊已遮蔽]
Hon Precision (7769.TW): Large package and CPO on track to drive 2027 content growth; 3Q26 beat; TP up to NT$12,600; Buy
Hon Precision delivered better-than-expected 3Q26 results, and highlighted: 1) product mix upgrade: a higher ASP for its large-package (Mega Tray) solution, with 20-30% of some customers' new orders already on Mega Tray, 2) CPO Insertion 4 customer qualification expected to finish by 2026 year-end, with mass production targeted in 1Q27, 3) a reiterated capacity expansion target of +50% for 2027, and 4) new projects expected to lift GM from 2H27. We remain positive on Hon Precision and raise our 12m TP to NT$12,600 (implied 49x 2027E P/E vs. 83% NI YoY in 2027-28E on avg.). Maintain Buy.
ATC platforms across FT and SLT to meet customers' needs
During the meeting, management laid out its ATC roadmap in detail, covering three platforms. ATC 3 uses liquid cooling and is adopted by an ASIC customer, with fast temperature ramp, c.10kW of power (vs. market mainstream of 2-3kW) and a 25-125°C range. ATC 5 uses refrigerant and supports tri-temp (-70-125°C) at c.10kW, mainly for automotive customers. ATC 8 uses refrigerant with c.25kW of power, for high-power applications. For large packages such as 200mm x 200mm, management plans to handle 12kW by end-2026 and 25kW by end-2027. Overall, Hon offers a different ATC system for each customer's test requirements and installs it on its FT or SLT handlers. Management believes this ability to meet varying temperature and power needs is why customers favor Hon's products.
Mega Tray solution across FT and SLT supports a higher ASP uplift
The large-package (Mega Tray) solution targets end-customer packages larger than 120mm x 150mm and is backward-compatible with current chip sizes. Small-volume shipments start in 2H26 and penetration is anticipated to rise in 2027. In final test (FT), Hon offers the HP9050, a dual-temp model, and the HP1050, a tri-temp model, which can be paired with different ATC platforms depending on customer needs. In system-level test (SLT), Hon offers the HP-3036, which supports 36 test boards in parallel (vs. 6-12 today), with an ASP more than 2x current, as longer test times make parallel testing increasingly important. Management emphasized the importance of integrating full automation and advanced AOI into these new handlers. The handlers can also be paired with Autonomous Mobile Robots (AMRs), which OSAT customers are actively adopting. On ASP, Mega Tray enjoys better price vs. the mainstream handler solution. For some customers, 20-30% of new orders are already on Mega Tray.
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research
analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
Allen Chang
+852-2978-2930 | allen.k.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
Verena Jeng
+852-2978-1681 | verena.jeng@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
[讀者資訊已遮蔽]
CPO qualification by 2026 year-end
Management said its CPO Insertion 4 tool has been ready for mass production since end-October, with current shipments mainly small-volume engineering tools. Customer qualification starts in November and is expected to finish in December. The customer targets mass production in 1Q27, and Hon has prepared long lead time materials in advance.
The tool tests simultaneously for optical and electrical performance. This requires two thermal systems, one for the ASIC and a separate system for the OEs, while ATE handles the electrical test. Hon's in-house optical alignment stage is still under qualification.
For CPC, Hon is focused on mechanical alignment. Some customers have strong demand and are looking to complete NPI as soon as possible. Hon is co-developing with a US networking customer and a major ATE vendor.
2027 capacity expansion reiterated
Looking into 2027, management reiterated its capacity expansion target of +50%. With order visibility for the next 2-3 quarters, we expect revenue to keep growing into 1H27. On margins, high-end ATC and Mega Tray shipments start in 4Q26, and CPO tools begin delivery in 1Q27. With a 3-6 month lag for equipment revenue recognition, management expects these new products to drive GM higher in 2H27.
On competition, management said major OSATs currently mainly use Hon's equipment, and challengers are mostly at an early stage. Management sees its advantage in ATC technology, where it leads peers, as well as a more complete product portfolio given widely varying customer requirements. On CPO, management sees its optical and electrical co-testing tool as next-generation equipment, leading in the market.
Earnings revision and Valuation
3Q26 beat: Hon Precision's 3Q26 revenue of NT$16.2bn (+17.4% QoQ, +97.5% YoY) came in 5.0% above GSe and 7.4% above Bloomberg consensus. Margin-wise, 3Q26 GM of 56.9% (vs. 56.1% in 2Q26) was in line with GSe/cons of 56.5%/57.0%. For opex, the company's 3Q26 opex ratio of 7.3% was higher vs. GSe/cons of 5.6%/6.6%, primarily due to higher R&D expense. As a result, 3Q26 EPS of NT$37.33 came in 4.7% above GSe of NT$35.64 and 8.0% above cons of NT$34.61.
Exhibit 1: 3Q26 results summary
| 3Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q25 | %QoQ | %YoY | GS prev. | %Diff | Consensus | %Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$mn) | |||||||||
| Revenue | 16,194 | 13,794 | 8,198 | 17.4% | 97.5% | 15,426 | 5.0% | 15,078 | 7.4% |
| Gross profit | 9,220 | 7,737 | 4,730 | 19.2% | 94.9% | 8,719 | 5.7% | 8,599 | 7.2% |
| Op. income | 8,041 | 6,686 | 4,166 | 20.3% | 93.0% | 7,853 | 2.4% | 7,610 | 5.7% |
| Net income | 6,717 | 5,476 | 3,617 | 22.6% | 85.7% | 6,412 | 4.7% | 6,201 | 8.3% |
| EPS (NT$) | 37.33 | 30.44 | 22.39 | 22.6% | 66.8% | 35.64 | 4.7% | 34.61 | 7.8% |
| GM | 56.9% | 56.1% | 57.7% | 0.8% | -0.8% | 56.5% | 0.4% | 57.0% | -0.1% |
| OpM | 49.7% | 48.5% | 50.8% | 1.2% | -1.2% | 50.9% | -1.3% | 50.5% | -0.8% |
| NM | 41.5% | 39.7% | 44.1% | 1.8% | -2.6% | 41.6% | -0.1% | 41.1% | 0.3% |
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings revision: We factor in 3Q26 results and raise our EPS by 2% / 2% / 1% in 2026-28E mainly on higher revenues and GM, reflecting the better-than-expected 3Q26
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
[讀者資訊已遮蔽]
results, continuous capacity expansion to capture the strong demand, product mix upgrade toward Mega Tray and business expansion toward CPO insertion 4.
Exhibit 2: Earnings revisions
| (NT$mn) | 2026E - Old | 2026E - New | 2026E - Diff (%) | 2027E - Old | 2027E - New | 2027E - Diff (%) | 2028E - Old | 2028E - New | 2028E - Diff (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 56,808 | 58,395 | 2.8% | 106,071 | 109,692 | 3.4% | 182,430 | 183,968 | 0.8% |
| Gross profit | 32,061 | 33,107 | 3.3% | 61,080 | 63,516 | 4.0% | 106,956 | 108,841 | 1.8% |
| Op. income | 28,493 | 28,879 | 1.4% | 56,238 | 57,008 | 1.4% | 100,181 | 100,657 | 0.5% |
| Net income | 23,489 | 24,007 | 2.2% | 45,190 | 46,094 | 2.0% | 79,864 | 80,499 | 0.8% |
| EPS (NT$) | 130.55 | 133.43 | 2.2% | 251.16 | 256.18 | 2.0% | 443.86 | 447.39 | 0.8% |
| GM | 56.4% | 56.7% | 0.3% | 57.6% | 57.9% | 0.3% | 58.6% | 59.2% | 0.5% |
| OpM | 50.2% | 49.5% | -0.7% | 53.0% | 52.0% | -1.0% | 54.9% | 54.7% | -0.2% |
| NM | 41.3% | 41.1% | -0.2% | 42.6% | 42.0% | -0.6% | 43.8% | 43.8% | 0.0% |
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 3: GS vs. Bloomberg consensus
| (NT$mn) | 2026 - Cons. | 2026 - GS | 2026 - %Diff | 2027 - Cons. | 2027 - GS | 2027 - %Diff | 2028 - Cons. | 2028 - GS | 2028 - %Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 56,336 | 58,395 | 3.7% | 93,404 | 109,692 | 17.4% | 148,873 | 183,968 | 23.6% |
| Gross profit | 31,935 | 33,107 | 3.7% | 54,019 | 63,516 | 17.6% | 87,314 | 108,841 | 24.7% |
| Op. income | 28,198 | 28,879 | 2.4% | 48,555 | 57,008 | 17.4% | 77,422 | 100,657 | 30.0% |
| Net income | 23,159 | 24,007 | 3.7% | 39,183 | 46,094 | 17.6% | 64,068 | 80,499 | 25.6% |
| EPS (NT$) | 129.58 | 133.43 | 3.0% | 218.49 | 256.18 | 17.2% | 357.80 | 447.39 | 25.0% |
| GM | 56.7% | 56.7% | 0.0% | 57.8% | 57.9% | 0.1% | 58.7% | 59.2% | 0.9% |
| OpM | 50.1% | 49.5% | -0.6% | 52.0% | 52.0% | 0.0% | 52.0% | 54.7% | 2.7% |
| NM | 41.1% | 41.1% | 0.0% | 41.9% | 42.0% | 0.1% | 43.0% | 43.8% | 0.7% |
Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 4: Hon Precision's P&L overview
| 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26 | 4Q26E | 1Q27E | 2Q27E | 3Q27E | 4Q27E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P&L | |||||||||||
| Revenue | 10,725 | 13,794 | 16,194 | 17,681 | 21,152 | 24,463 | 30,347 | 33,730 | 58,395 | 109,692 | 183,968 |
| Gross profit | 6,032 | 7,737 | 9,220 | 10,119 | 12,170 | 14,117 | 17,587 | 19,642 | 33,107 | 63,516 | 108,841 |
| Operating profit | 5,360 | 6,686 | 8,041 | 8,791 | 10,728 | 12,538 | 15,876 | 17,866 | 28,879 | 57,008 | 100,657 |
| Net income | 4,624 | 5,476 | 6,717 | 7,190 | 8,750 | 10,148 | 12,854 | 14,342 | 24,007 | 46,094 | 80,499 |
| EPS (NT$) | 25.70 | 30.44 | 37.33 | 39.96 | 48.63 | 56.40 | 71.44 | 79.71 | 133.43 | 256.18 | 447.39 |
| Margins (%) | |||||||||||
| GM | 56.2% | 56.1% | 56.9% | 57.2% | 57.5% | 57.7% | 58.0% | 58.2% | 56.7% | 57.9% | 59.2% |
| OpM | 50.0% | 48.5% | 49.7% | 49.7% | 50.7% | 51.3% | 52.3% | 53.0% | 49.5% | 52.0% | 54.7% |
| NM | 43.1% | 39.7% | 41.5% | 40.7% | 41.4% | 41.5% | 42.4% | 42.5% | 41.1% | 42.0% | 43.8% |
| YoY (%) | |||||||||||
| Revenue | 81.4% | 100.4% | 97.5% | 90.6% | 97.2% | 77.3% | 87.4% | 90.8% | 92.9% | 87.8% | 67.7% |
| Gross profit | 72.6% | 91.6% | 94.9% | 108.5% | 101.8% | 82.5% | 90.8% | 94.1% | 93.5% | 91.9% | 71.4% |
| Operating profit | 71.1% | 83.5% | 93.0% | 114.2% | 100.2% | 87.5% | 97.4% | 103.2% | 91.9% | 97.4% | 76.6% |
| Net income | 80.1% | 122.1% | 85.7% | 93.7% | 89.2% | 85.3% | 91.4% | 99.5% | 94.2% | 92.0% | 74.6% |
| EPS | 61.8% | 99.4% | 66.8% | 75.8% | 89.2% | 85.3% | 91.4% | 99.5% | 76.2% | 92.0% | 74.6% |
| QoQ (%) | |||||||||||
| Revenue | 15.6% | 28.6% | 17.4% | 9.2% | 19.6% | 15.7% | 24.1% | 11.1% | |||
| Gross profit | 24.3% | 28.3% | 19.2% | 9.7% | 20.3% | 16.0% | 24.6% | 11.7% | |||
| Operating profit | 30.6% | 24.7% | 20.3% | 9.3% | 22.0% | 16.9% | 26.6% | 12.5% | |||
| Net income | 24.6% | 18.4% | 22.6% | 7.0% | 21.7% | 16.0% | 26.7% | 11.6% | |||
| EPS | 13.1% | 18.4% | 22.6% | 7.0% | 21.7% | 16.0% | 26.7% | 11.6% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation: We raise our 12-month TP to NT$12,600 (vs. NT$12,500 previously). Our 12-month TP is based on 32x 2028E P/E (unchanged) discounted back to 2027E at a 13.6% CoE to arrive at our TP of NT$12,600. Our key assumptions for CoE include: (1) 1.5x beta (sourcing Bloomberg), (2) a 4.25% risk-free rate (inline with GS house view), and (3) a market risk premium of 6.25% (in line with GS house view). We adopt the e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
[讀者資訊已遮蔽]
2028E discounted P/E method as we believe it best reflects Hon Precision's clear capacity expansion plan for the next several years with strong demand visibility. Maintain Buy.
Exhibit 5: Taiex vs. Hon Precision
Nov-24
Source: Bloomberg
Exhibit 7: Forward P/B
Source: Bloomberg
Exhibit 8: P/B vs. ROE
Source: Bloomberg
Price Target Risks and Methodology - Hon Precision (7769.TW)
Valuation: We are Buy rated on Hon Precision. Our 12-month TP of NT$12,600 is based on a target P/E of 32x (based on close peer correlation analysis) applied to our 2028E EPS, and discounted back to 2027E at 13.6% CoE. Our key assumptions for CoE include: (1) 1.5x beta, (2) a 4.25% risk-free rate, and (3) a market risk premium at 6.25%.
Key downside risks to our views: (1) softer AI/HPC demand, (2) slower adoption of SLT among AI ASICs, and (3) intensifying competition.
Jan-26
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
[讀者資訊已遮蔽]
7769.TW
12m Price Target: NT$12,600.00
Price: NT$5,565.00 Upside: 126.4%
| Buy | GS Forecast | ||||
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | ||
| Market cap: NT$1.0tr / $30.8bn Enterprise value: NT$947.0bn / $29.2bn 3m ADTV: NT$5.0bn / $157.5mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | Revenue (NT$ mn) New Revenue (NT$ mn) Old | 30,270.6 | 58,394.6 | 109,691.8 | 183,967.8 |
| Market cap: NT$1.0tr / $30.8bn Enterprise value: NT$947.0bn / $29.2bn 3m ADTV: NT$5.0bn / $157.5mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | 30,270.6 | 56,807.8 | 106,071.4 | 182,430.4 | |
| Market cap: NT$1.0tr / $30.8bn Enterprise value: NT$947.0bn / $29.2bn 3m ADTV: NT$5.0bn / $157.5mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 15,114.3 | 29,016.8 | 57,248.4 | 101,011.5 |
| Market cap: NT$1.0tr / $30.8bn Enterprise value: NT$947.0bn / $29.2bn 3m ADTV: NT$5.0bn / $157.5mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | EPS (NT$) New | 75.71 | 133.43 | 256.18 | 447.39 |
| Market cap: NT$1.0tr / $30.8bn Enterprise value: NT$947.0bn / $29.2bn 3m ADTV: NT$5.0bn / $157.5mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | EPS (NT$) Old | 75.71 | 130.55 | 251.16 | 443.86 |
| Market cap: NT$1.0tr / $30.8bn Enterprise value: NT$947.0bn / $29.2bn 3m ADTV: NT$5.0bn / $157.5mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | P/E (X) | 20.7 | 41.7 | 21.7 | 12.4 |
| Market cap: NT$1.0tr / $30.8bn Enterprise value: NT$947.0bn / $29.2bn 3m ADTV: NT$5.0bn / $157.5mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | P/B (X) | 4.9 | 16.1 | 11.0 | 7.2 |
| Market cap: NT$1.0tr / $30.8bn Enterprise value: NT$947.0bn / $29.2bn 3m ADTV: NT$5.0bn / $157.5mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | Dividend yield (%) | 3.4 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 5.6 |
| Market cap: NT$1.0tr / $30.8bn Enterprise value: NT$947.0bn / $29.2bn 3m ADTV: NT$5.0bn / $157.5mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | CROCI (%) | 320.2 | 159.4 | 367.6 | 83.9 |
| Market cap: NT$1.0tr / $30.8bn Enterprise value: NT$947.0bn / $29.2bn 3m ADTV: NT$5.0bn / $157.5mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | 9/26 | 12/26E | 3/27E | 6/27E | |
| Market cap: NT$1.0tr / $30.8bn Enterprise value: NT$947.0bn / $29.2bn 3m ADTV: NT$5.0bn / $157.5mn Taiwan Greater China Technology M&A Rank: 3 Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes | EPS (NT$) | 37.33 | 39.96 | 48.63 | 56.40 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 28 Oct 2026 close.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
[讀者資訊已遮蔽]