PDF 原檔：報告_GS_穎崴6515_20260526_original.pdf
原始內容
Winway Technology Co. (6515.TW)
Accelerating long-term TAM growth outlook extends expansion visibility into 2030; reiterate Buy and NT$15,000 TP
6515.TW
12m Pri c e Target:
NT$15,000.00
Pri
c
e:
NT$8,905.00
Upside:
68.4%
We attended WinWay's analyst meeting today, and highlight the following takeaways: 1) accelerating structural TAM expansion driven by AI/HPC testing complexity and content growth, with management viewing 50-60% annual growth as potentially still too conservative , which reinforces our expectation of 90%/79%/67% of revenue YoY growth in 2026-28E, 2) aggressive long-term capacity planning with WinWay now targeting to double its capacity every year into 2030 , and 3) increasing visibility into HyperSocket adoption as AI/HPC packages migrate toward ultra-large package size (>100mm x 100mm) , higher thermal density, and >20k pin-count architectures.
Overall, management reiterated that current industry demand remains signi fi cantly ahead of supply, which reinforced our positive view for WinWay as we view the company as well positioned at the intersection of multiple structural growth drivers, including 1) continued socket pin count expansion in next-gen AI chips, 2) ongoing share gains and TAM expansion into SLT market, 3) stronger volume growth from US AI ASIC customer for both AI accelerators and CPUs, 4) robust CPU test socket demand driven by agentic AI, and 5) strong momentum from MEMS probe cards. We reiterate our Buy rating for WinWay with an unchanged 12m TP of NT$15,000. Below, we highlight key takeaways from the meeting.
Long-term expansion visibility extending into 2030
During the meeting, one of the key highlights was that management indicated that their long term TAM growth assumption of a 50-60% annual growth rate may still be too conservative when considering both content growth and volume growth. As such, from a longer term capacity planning perspective, the company is now aiming to double its capacity every year through 2030. Management also indicated its spring-probe capacity will continue to be the largest among peers.
BUY
Evelyn Yu
+886(2)2730-4187 | evelyn.yu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch
Bruce Lu
+886(2)2730-4185 | bruce.lu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch
Ryan Huang, CFA
+886(2)2730-4084 | ryan.huang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch
Key Data _____________________________________
Market cap: NT$305.4bn / $9.7bn
Enterprise value: NT$302.5bn / $9.6bn
3m ADTV: NT$3.3bn / $104.3mn
Taiwan
Taiwan Semiconductor
M&A Rank: 3
Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: Yes
| GS Forecast | 12/25 | __________ 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (NT$ mn) | 7,8 5 7 . 2 | 14,910 . 2 | 26,733 .5 | 44, 5 24 . 3 |
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 2,327 . 7 | 4,7 5 3 . 8 | 10,297 . 8 | 19,411 . 1 |
| EPS (NT$) | 46 . 96 | 103 . 68 | 224 . 10 | 426 . 09 |
| P/E (X) | 32 .5 | 8 5. 9 | 39 . 7 | 20 . 9 |
| P/B (X) | 8 .5 | 36 . 1 | 22 . 7 | 13 . 7 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 2 . 3 | 0 . 9 | 1 . 9 | 3 . 6 |
| N debt/EBITDA (ex lease,X) | (1 . 1) | (0 . 6) | (0 .5 ) | (0 .5 ) |
| CROCI (%) | 31 . 8 | 67 . 0 | 96 . 2 | 121 . 6 |
| F C F yield (%) | 2 . 8 | 0 .5 | 1 . 7 | 3 . 3 |
| 3/26 | 6/26E | 9/26E | 12/26E | |
| EPS (NT$) | 19 . 60 | 23 . 68 | 28 . 48 | 32 . 23 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details.
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the fi rm may have a con fl ict of interest that could a ff ect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certi fi cation and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US a ffi liates are not registered/quali fi ed as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
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BUY
Winway Technology Co. (6515.TW)
Rating since May 25, 2025
Ratios & Valuation __________________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (X) | 32.5 | 85.9 | 39.7 | 2 0 .9 |
| P/B (X) | 8.5 | 36.1 | 22.7 | 13.7 |
| FCF yield (%) | 2.8 | 0 .5 | 1.7 | 3.3 |
| EV/EBITDAR (X) | 22.3 | 66.3 | 3 0 .4 | 15.9 |
| EV/EBITDA (excl. leases) (X) | 22.3 | 66.3 | 3 0 .4 | 15.9 |
| CROCI (%) | 31.8 | 67. 0 | 96.2 | 121.6 |
| ROE (%) | 27.9 | 48.3 | 69.6 | 81.3 |
| Net debt/equity (%) | (4 0 .2) | (33.2) | (38.7) | (42.7) |
| Net debt/equity (excl. leases) (%) | (4 0 .2) | (33.2) | (38.7) | (42.7) |
| Interest co v er (X) | 781. 0 | 1 , 858. 0 | 4 , 211.1 | 8 ,0 44.1 |
| Days in v entory outst , sales | 37.2 | 27.1 | 23.9 | 23.3 |
| Recei v able days | 92.7 | 75. 0 | 71.9 | 75. 0 |
| Days p ayable outstandin g | 138.4 | 1 0 8.3 | 1 00 .4 | 1 0 2.8 |
| DuPont ROE (%) | 26. 0 | 41.7 | 56.7 | 65.2 |
| Turno v er (X) | 0 .9 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| L e v era g e (X) | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| G ross cas h in v ested (ex cas h ) (NT $ ) | 4 , 744.2 | 7 , 155.8 | 1 0, 312.7 | 15 , 597. 0 |
| A v era g e ca p ital e mp loyed (NT $ ) | 4 , 2 0 7.2 | 4 , 896. 0 | 7 , 3 0 1.6 | 11 ,0 23. 0 |
| BVP S (NT $ ) | 178.83 | 246.86 | 392. 0 2 | 647.95 |
Growth & Margins (%) ______________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue growth | 3 5.5 | 89 . 8 | 79 . 3 | 66 .5 |
| EBITDA growth | 4 5. 0 | 104 .2 | 116 . 6 | 88 .5 |
| EPS growth | 36 .5 | 1 2 0 . 8 | 116 .2 | 90 . 1 |
| DPS growth | 36 . 4 | 1 2 0 . 8 | 116 .2 | 90 . 1 |
| EBIT margin | 2 6 . 3 | 2 9 . 7 | 36 . 9 | 4 2. 3 |
| EBITDA margin | 2 9 . 6 | 31 . 9 | 38 .5 | 43 . 6 |
| Net income margin | 2 1 . 3 | 2 4 . 9 | 30 . 0 | 34 .2 |
Price Performance __________________________________________
Source: FactSet. Price as of 26 May 2026 close.
| Income Statement (NT$ mn) | ________ | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tota l r e v e nu e | 12/25 7,857.2 | 14,910.2 | 26,733.5 | 44,524.3 |
| Cost of goods sold | (4,300.7) | (8,365.8) | (14,066.7) | (22,025.2) |
| SG&A | (1,070.8) | (1,582.0) | (2,099.5) | (2,752.4) |
| R&D | (416.1) | (531.2) | (704.2) | (899.3) |
| Other operating inc./(exp.) | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| E BITDA | 2 ,3 27 . 7 | 4, 75 3. 8 | 1 0, 2 9 7 . 8 | 1 9,4 11 . 1 |
| Depreciation& amortization | (258.1) | (322.5) | (434.7) | (563.7) |
| E BIT | 2 ,0 6 9. 6 | 4,43 1 . 2 | 9, 86 3. 1 | 18 , 8 4 7 .4 |
| Net interest inc./(exp.) | 45.1 | 50.4 | 50.9 | 50.9 |
| Income/(loss) from associates Pre-t axp r ofi t | -- 2 ,0 61 . 2 | -- 4, 586 . 5 | -- 9,9 1 3.9 | -- 18 , 8 9 8 .4 |
| Provision for taxes | (388.3) | (880.0) | (1,902.3) | (3,665.4) |
| Minority interest | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Preferred dividends | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| N et inc . (p re-e xc e p t ionals) | , 672 .9 | 3, 7 0 6 . 5 | 8 ,0 11 . 6 | 15 , 2 3 2 .9 |
| Post-tax exceptionals | 1 -- | -- | -- | -- |
| N et inc . (pos t-e xc e p t ionals) | 1 , 672 .9 | 3, 7 0 6 . 5 | 8 ,0 11 . 6 | 15 , 2 3 2 .9 |
| E P S(basic , p re-e xc e p t ) (N T $) | 4 6 .9 6 | 1 03. 68 | 22 4. 1 0 | 4 26 .09 |
| E P S(dilu te d , p re-e xc e p t ) (N T $) | 4 6 .9 6 | 1 03. 68 | 22 4. 1 0 | 4 26 .09 |
| E P S(basic , pos t-e xc e p t ) (N T $) | 4 6 .9 6 | 1 03. 68 | 22 4. 1 0 | 4 26 .09 |
| E P S(dilu te d , pos t-e xc e p t ) (N T $) | 4 6 .9 6 | 1 03. 68 | 22 4. 1 0 | 4 26 .09 |
| DPS (NT$) | 35.22 | 77.76 | 168.07 | 319.57 |
| Div. payout ratio (%) | ||||
| 75.0 | ______ 75.0 | 75.0 | 75.0 | |
| Balance Sheet (NT$ mn) C a sh& c a sh equiv a lents | 12/25 2,593.9 | 12/26E 2,956.6 | 12/27E 5,466.2 | 12/28E 9,969.8 |
| Accounts receiv a ble | 2,151.9 | 3,971.6 | 6,564.9 | 11,739.5 |
| 2,134.3 | 3,542.6 | |||
| Inventory Other current a ssets | 842.5 838.2 | 1,371.7 838.2 | 838.2 | 838.2 |
| Total c u rrent assets | 6 ,4 26 .3 | 9, 1 3 8 . 1 | 15 ,003. 6 | 26 ,090. 1 |
| Net PP&E | 2,206.0 | 3,099.7 | 4,125.3 | 5,314.1 110.1 |
| Net int a ngibles | 51.1 | 75.0 | 94.6 | 5.0 |
| Tot a l investments Other long-term a ssets | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 355.7 | 355.7 |
| Total assets | 355.7 9,044. 2 | 355.7 12 , 67 3.4 | 1 9, 58 4. 2 | 3 1 , 875 .0 |
| Accounts p a y a ble | 1,914.2 | 3,051.6 | 4,690.6 | 7,717.2 |
| Short-term debt | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Short-term le a se li a bilities | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Other current li a bilities | 610.0 | 650.0 | 690.0 | 730.0 |
| Total c u rrent liabilities | 2 , 52 4. 2 | 3, 7 0 1 . 6 | 5 ,3 8 0. 6 | 8 ,44 7 . 2 |
| Long-term debt Long-term le a se li a | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- |
| bilities Other long-term li a bilities | -- | -- | -- 74.7 | -- |
| Total long-term liabilities | 74.7 7 4. 7 | 74.7 | 7 4. 7 | 74.7 7 4. 7 |
| Total liabilities | 7 4. 7 | 5 ,4 55 .3 | , 521 .9 | |
| Preferred sh a res | 2 , 5 9 8 .9 -- | 3, 776 .3 -- | -- | 8 -- |
| Tot a l commonequity Minority interest | 6,445.3 -- | 8,897.2 -- | 14,128.9 -- | 23,353.1 -- |
| Total liabilities &eq u ity | 9,044. 2 | 1 9, 58 4. 2 | 3 1 , 875 .0 (9,969.8) | |
| Cash Flow (NT$ mn) Net debt, a djusted | (2,593.9) | 12 , 67 3.4 (2,956.6) | (5,466.2) | |
| __________ 12/25 1,672.9 | 12/26E 3,706.5 | 12/27E | 12/28E 15,232.9 | |
| Net income D&Aadd-back Minority | 258.1 | 322.5 | 8,011.6 434.7 | |
| interest add-back Net (inc)/dec w orking | -- 166.1 | -- | -- | 563.7 -- |
| capital | (294.3) | (1,211.6) -- | (1,717.0) -- | (3,556.3) -- |
| Other operating cash flo w Cash flow from operations | 1 , 8 0 2 . 8 | 2 , 817 .4 | 6 , 72 9.4 | 12 , 2 40.4 |
| Capital expenditures | (280.0) | (1,200.0) | (1,440.0) -- | (1,728.0) -- |
| Acquisitions | -- | -- | ||
| Divestitures | -- | -- | -- | |
| Others | -- | -- .0) | ||
| Cash flow from investing | 1,002.2 722 . 2 | -- ( 1 , 2 00.0) | -- ( 1 ,440.0) | ( 1 , 728 |
| Repayment of lease liabilities | -- | -- | ||
| Dividends paid(common& pref) | -- | -- | (6,008.7) | |
| (890.0) (150.7) | (1,254.7) -- | (2,779.9) | -- | |
| Inc/(dec) in debt Other financing flo w s | (14.3) | -- | 0.0 | |
| cash c ing | 1 ,0 55 . 1 ) | 0.0 ( 1 , 25 4. 7 ) | 0.0 ( 2 , 77 9.9) | ,00 8 . 7 ) |
| Cash flow from finan Total c ash flow | ( 1 ,4 6 9.9 | 3 62 . 8 | 2 , 5 09. | ( 6 4, 5 03. 6 |
| Free cash flo w | 1,522.8 | 1,617.4 | 5 5,289.4 | 10,512.4 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.
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Accelerating capacity expansion
Given stronger customer demand, management reiterated that capacity expansion remains the company's top priority at the moment. Spring-probe capacity is expected to increase from 6mn pins per month in 1H26 (vs. 3.5mn at end-2025) to 9mn by end-2026, and further ramp to 14mn in 1H27, implying a 157% of growth in 2026E and at least another 56% growth in 2027E (based on 1H27 vs. end-2026 capacity) . Current market demand is at around 22-25mn per month, implying WinWay's in-house capacity could eventually satisfy ~60% of customer demand by 1H27.
Socket capacity is also ramping rapidly. Based on 5,000-pin equivalent sockets, the company expects capacity to increase from 3.3k set of socket per month in 1H26, to 4.2k in 2H26, and further to 7.2k in 1H27 . The company's new Renwu facilities are progressing faster than expected, with Renwu Plant 1 beginning mass production in April 2026, and Renwu Plant 2 to ramp in 2Q27. Management highlighted that expansion timing has accelerated meaningfully, with additional facilities planned into 2030, including another new plant planned by 1Q28 on top of its current expansion at its Renwu site.
HyperSocket as next phase of growth engine
Management also highlighted growing customer quali fi cation activity for HyperSocket, particularly as AI/HPC package size migrates toward 100mm x 100mm, where traditional socket architectures would face increasing challenges related to warpage, thermal deformation, etc. These trends continue to support WinWay's HyperSocket roadmap, which is designed to address these issues through improved contact structure and thermal performance, and management indicated that package size above 100mm x 100mm could increasingly adopt HyperSocket architectures over time. The company is currently aiming to expand HyperSocket penetration from fi nal testing into SLT applications and targets HyperSocket contribution to reach ~5% of total revenue by 2027 and more into 2028.
MEMS and CPO as another longer-term growth leg
Management noted that the CPO opportunity visibility is becoming increasingly clear into 2027, with exposure spanning wafer-level, die-level, and module-level testing solutions. While commercialization challenges remain, the company expects to see more meaningful ramp up opportunities beginning in 2027 and into 2028. In addition, management reiterated its con fi dence in MEMS probe-card demand, guiding for around 2x of order growth in 2027 vs 2026. The company also highlighted ongoing collaboration with Technoprobe and continues to view MEMS as one of its key long-term growth drivers tied to higher pin count and advanced-node AI devices.
See also:
Winway Technology Co. (6515.TW): CPO testing: the next critical bottleneck - and opportunity; Key takeaways from WinWay CPO technology forum; reiterate Buy (14 May 2026)
Winway Technology Co. (6515.TW): Solid growth momentum sustaining into 2027 and beyond; TP up to NT$15,000; reiterate Buy (5 May 2026)
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Exhibit 1: WinWay's P&L overview
| 1Q26 | 2Q26E | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | 1Q27E | 2Q27E | 3Q27E | 4Q27E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P&L | |||||||||||
| Revenue | 2,980 | 3,640 | 4,038 | 4,252 | 4,685 | 5,933 | 7,977 | 8,138 | 14,910 | 26,733 | 44,524 |
| Gross profit | 1,282 | 1,589 | 1,783 | 1,891 | 2,141 | 2,765 | 3,818 | 3,943 | 6,544 | 12,667 | 22,499 |
| Operating profit | 777 | 1,061 | 1,243 | 1,348 | 1,571 | 2,099 | 3,036 | 3,154 | 4,429 | 9,860 | 18,848 |
| Net income | 699 | 842 | 1,013 | 1,146 | 1,261 | 1,623 | 2,454 | 2,663 | 3,699 | 8,001 | 15,226 |
| EPS (NT$) | 19.54 | 23.56 | 28.33 | 32.06 | 35.27 | 45.40 | 68.65 | 74.50 | 103.48 | 223.82 | 425.91 |
| Margins (%) | |||||||||||
| GM | 43.0% | 43.7% | 44.1% | 44.5% | 45.7% | 46.6% | 47.9% | 48.4% | 43.9% | 47.4% | 50.5% |
| OpM | 26.1% | 29.1% | 30.8% | 31.7% | 33.5% | 35.4% | 38.1% | 38.8% | 29.7% | 36.9% | 42.3% |
| NM | 23.4% | 23.1% | 25.1% | 27.0% | 26.9% | 27.4% | 30.8% | 32.7% | 24.8% | 29.9% | 34.2% |
| YoY (%) | |||||||||||
| Revenue | 29.7% | 139.1% | 123.8% | 90.4% | 57.2% | 63.0% | 97.6% | 91.4% | 89.8% | 79.3% | 66.5% |
| Gross profit | 14.4% | 113.1% | 134.9% | 103.0% | 67.1% | 74.0% | 114.2% | 108.5% | 84.0% | 93.5% | 77.6% |
| Operating profit | 6.8% | 130.6% | 205.1% | 184.1% | 102.3% | 97.8% | 144.3% | 133.9% | 114.0% | 122.6% | 91.2% |
| Net income | 14.0% | 310.9% | 172.4% | 137.1% | 80.5% | 92.7% | 142.3% | 132.4% | 121.1% | 116.3% | 90.3% |
| EPS | 13.5% | 309.0% | 171.6% | 136.4% | 80.5% | 92.7% | 142.3% | 132.4% | 120.4% | 116.3% | 90.3% |
| QoQ (%) | |||||||||||
| Revenue | 33.4% | 22.1% | 10.9% | 5.3% | 10.2% | 26.6% | 34.4% | 2.0% | |||
| Gross profit | 37.6% | 24.0% | 12.2% | 6.1% | 13.2% | 29.1% | 38.1% | 3.3% | |||
| Operating profit | 63.6% | 36.6% | 17.1% | 8.5% | 16.5% | 33.6% | 44.7% | 3.9% | |||
| Net income | 44.5% | 20.6% | 20.2% | 13.2% | 10.0% | 28.7% | 51.2% | 8.5% | |||
| EPS | 44.1% | 20.6% | 20.2% | 13.2% | 10.0% | 28.7% | 51.2% | 8.5% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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Investment Thesis, Price Target Risks and Methodology
Investment Thesis - WinWay (6515.TW)
WinWay is a leading Taiwan-based socket provider specializing in test sockets and burn-in sockets, which are used in Final Test (FT), System-Level Test (SLT), and burn-in test. The company is the 2nd largest socket supplier globally in terms of revenue, with c.8% of market share (in 2024). 56% of its total revenue comes from the socket segment.
We like WinWay as we expect its revenue/earnings to further accelerate at 78%/109% CAGRs in 2025-28E, mainly driven by 1) continued dollar content expansion in next-gen AI chips, 2) ongoing share gains as shipment volumes ramp following its new penetration into its US AI GPU customer's SLT market beyond the FT market, and 3) even stronger volume growth from its US AI ASIC customers across both AI accelerators and CPUs, 4) robust CPU socket demand, driven by agentic AI demand to general server CPU, and 5) stronger revenue contribution from MEMS probe cards supported by CPU and networking demand. The company is now trading above its 3-yr. average forward P/E of 31.5x; however, with increasing ASP thanks to rising chip complexity and shorter product cadence driving frequent socket upgrade demand, we continue to see upside potential to its revenue and earnings growth and have a Buy rating on the name.
Price Target Risks and Methodology - WinWay (6515.TW)
Valuation: We are Buy rated on WinWay. Our 12-month TP of NT$15,000 is based on a target P/E of 40x (1.26x of 3-year average forward P/E of 31.5x) applied to our 2028E EPS, and discounted back to 2027E at 13.6% CoE. Our key assumptions for CoE include: (1) 1.5x beta (sourcing Bloomberg), (2) a 4.25% risk-free rate, and (3) a market risk premium at 6.25% (in line with GS house view).
Key risks to our views: 1) softer AI/HPC demand, 2) slower penetration into new TAM, and 3) intensifying competition.
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