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報告_Citi_台灣CCL產業_3Q26_20261028

更新 2026-10-29
#來源/券商報告#公司/台光電#公司/台燿#產業/PCB#技術/CCL

PDF 原檔：報告_Citi_台灣CCL產業_3Q26_20261028_original.pdf

原始內容

[讀者資訊已遮蔽]

a

citi

28 Oct 2026 17:13:51 ET │ 22 pages

Taiwan PCB & Laminates

CCL sector: 3Q26 quality beat; price hike for AI products; Buy

CITI'S TAKE

Despite several concerns about the CCL sector (such as PTFE, de-spec, and potential new suppliers) over the last few months, we think the overall CCL undersupply situation expected in 2027 and beyond remains unchanged as more customers seek long-term agreements to secure long-term supplies. After their 3Q26 results beats, we still expect price hikes in 4Q26E to drive growth for EMC and TUC, which are both ramping up capacity to fulfill demand in the coming years. We reiterate our Buy rating on both names and raise our TP to NT$7,400 (28x 2027E EPS) for EMC and NT$2,400 (23x 2027E EPS) for TUC.

EMC: 3Q26 results beat - 3Q26 sales grew 29% QoQ, led by the infra segment with 32% QoQ growth. Per mgmt, infra/M7 and above sales accounted for 70-80%/6570% of total sales, respectively. 3Q GM was 37.7%, beating Citi/consensus forecasts of 36.3%/35.7%. Thanks to strong GM expansion and operating leverage, overall earnings beat Citi/consensus by 20%/15%. In 3Q26, M9 sales still accounted for a low-single digit percentage of total sales.

EMC: 4Q26 driven by product mix/price hike - The company guided 4Q26 sales to increase 15-20% QoQ, with a GM range of 38-39.5%. Mgmt said they will initiate price hikes in 4Q26 across AI/non-AI products, with the effective date varying by customer. With not much new capacity ramped in 4Q26, we think 4Q26 sales will be driven mainly by price hike/product mix enhancements. As EMC currently sees strong demand and is negotiating long-term agreements with customers. It announced a capacity expansion plan through 2030, with capacity increasing 49%/20%/14%/28% end-to-end YoY for 2027/28/29/30. Regarding competition from PTFE, mgmt said they continue to have a conservative view on the adoption of this raw material, and EMC intends to compete with PTFE via its M10 solutions. M9 is guided to reach double-digit % of total sales in 2027.

TUC: 3Q26 results beat - 3Q26 sales grew 29% QoQ, with higher QoQ growth in non-low loss and power products due to more aggressive price hikes vs M7/8 products. M7+8 products accounted for 38% of total 3Q26 sales (vs 39% mix in 2Q26). 3Q26 GM of 36.9% (+7.2ppt QoQ) beat Citi/consensus forecasts by 4.3ppt/5.1ppt, as the company benefited from price hikes and efficiency improvements in its Thailand plant (with GM turning positive, per mgmt). 3Q26 opex ratio also saw leverage benefit of 0.3ppt QoQ, leading to OP levels beating Citi/consensus by 28%/25%. Due to a higher tax rate, 3Q26 earnings came in 16%/15% higher than Citi/consensus forecasts.

TUC: 4Q26 driven by price hike and new capacity - TUC ramped new capacity in Thailand in 3Q26 and plans an additional ramp in 4Q26. On pricing strategy, given EMC's initiative to hike prices on AI products, TUC also plans to focus on hiking prices amid AI-related demand in 4Q26 given less price hike magnitude on AI products in 1H26. We currently forecast 4Q26E sales to grow 17% QoQ, with GM expanding 2.4ppt QoQ to 39.3%. The company is also working to increase capacity by 43%/34%/11%/25% end-to-end YoY for 2027/28/29/30. On recent concerns about competition from new suppliers entering the ASIC business, the company sees no change in its position with ASIC customers.

Viewpoint |

Jack Chen AC

+886-2-8726-9091 jack1.chen@citi.com

Laura (Chia Yi) Chen +886-2-8726-9090 laura.cy.chen@citi.com

Nicholas Lai +886-2-8726-9093 nicholas.lai@citi.com [讀者資訊已遮蔽]

Data Summary

Rating Short- Term Target Price Price Current Fiscal Year - EPS Current Fiscal Year - EPS Next Fiscal Year - EPS Next Fiscal Year - EPS
Company Ticker Ccy Price Mkt Cap (M) Date & Time Old New View Old New ESPR (%) Div Yld (%) ETR (%) Last Rpt Yr Old New Old New
Elite Material 2383.TW NT$ 5,025.00 1,800,564 28 Oct 13:30 1 nc - 6,000.007,400.00 47.3 1.6 48.9 Dec-25 112.88 135.11 201.42 264.00
tuc 6274.TWO NT$ 1,375.00 411,758 28 Oct 15:00 1 nc - 1,950.00 2,300.00 67.3 2.0 69.3 Dec-25 36.96 43.04 79.28 98.23

1 = Buy, 2 = Neutral, 3 = Sell, H = High Risk ESPR = Expected Share Price Return, ETR = Expected Total Return, nc = no change

Source: Citi Research

^Catalyst Watch

3

[讀者資訊已遮蔽]

Earnings Estimates

Company Name Ticker Last Rpt Year Currency Last Reported Year - 1Q Last Reported Year - 2Q Last Reported Year - 3Q Last Reported Year - 4Q FY0 Current Fiscal Year - 1Q Current Fiscal Year - 2Q Current Fiscal Year - 3Q Current Fiscal Year - 4Q Current Fiscal Year - FY1 Next Fiscal Year - 1Q Next Fiscal Year - 2Q Next Fiscal Year - 3Q Next Fiscal Year - 4Q Next Fiscal Year - FY2
Elite Material 2383.TW Dec-25 NT$ 10.01 10.02 11.19 10.63 41.86 14.90 27.55 40.47 52.19 135.11 55.43 61.19 69.77 77.62 264.00
Old Dec-25 NT$ 10.01 10.02 11.19 10.63 41.86 14.90 27.55 33.58 36.85 112.88 38.87 46.79 54.79 60.97 201.42
tuc 6274.TWO Dec-25 NT$ 2.32 2.24 3.44 3.71 11.71 4.17 7.73 12.72 18.41 43.04 18.74 22.86 27.84 28.79 98.23
Old Dec-25 NT$ 2.32 2.24 3.44 3.71 11.71 4.32 8.03 11.36 13.25 36.96 13.52 17.07 24.02 24.66 79.28
Source: Citi Research Source: Citi Research Source: Citi Research Source: Citi Research Source: Citi Research Source: Citi Research Source: Citi Research Source: Citi Research Source: Citi Research Source: Citi Research Source: Citi Research Source: Citi Research Source: Citi Research Source: Citi Research Source: Citi Research Source: Citi Research Source: Citi Research Source: Citi Research Source: Citi Research

[讀者資訊已遮蔽]

Figure 2. EMC - Earnings Revisions

(NT$mn) 4Q26E - New 4Q26E - Old 4Q26E - Chg. 1Q27E - New 1Q27E - Old 1Q27E - Chg. 2026E - New 2026E - Old 2026E - Chg. 2027E - New 2027E - Old 2027E - Chg. 2028E - New 2028E - Old 2028E - Chg.
Sales 71,847 56,995 26% 74,914 59,345 26%213,074 192,764 11%342,728290,850 18%478,246402,336 19%
Sequential growth (%) 18% 3% 4% 4% 126% 105% 61% 51% 40% 38%
Gross profit 28,909 21,221 36% 31,570 22,538 40% 77,592 67,057 16%146,833 113,743 29%223,801 161,202 39%
Opex -5,754 4,953 -216% -5,400 -4,266 27%-15,888 -15,582 2%-24,890-21,078 18%-34,458-29,959 15%
Operating profit 23,155 16,268 42% 26,170 18,272 43% 61,703 51,475 20% 121,942 92,666 32%189,342 131,243 44%
Pre-tax profit 23,125 16,328 42% 26,130 18,327 43% 61,808 51,735 19% 121,842 92,945 31%189,256 131,522 44%
Net income 18,700 13,205 42% 19,860 13,930 43% 48,413 40,453 20% 94,597 72,185 31%146,995 102,164 44%
EPS (NT$) 52.19 36.85 42% 55.43 38.87 43% 135.11 112.88 20%264.00 201.42 31% 410.23 285.08 44%
Gross margin (%) 40.2% 37.2%+3.0 ppt 42.1% 38.0%+4.2 ppt 36.4% 34.8% +1.6 ppt 42.8% 39.1%+3.7 ppt 46.8% 40.1%+6.7 ppt
Opex ratio (%) -8.0% 8.7%-16.7 ppt -7.2% -7.2%-0.0 ppt -7.5% -8.1%+0.6 ppt -7.3% -7.2%-0.0 ppt -7.2% -7.4%+0.2 ppt
Operating margin (%) 32.2% 28.5%+3.7 ppt 34.9% 30.8% +4.1 ppt 29.0% 26.7%+2.3 ppt 35.6% 31.9%+3.7 ppt 39.6% 32.6%+7.0 ppt
Net margin (%) 26.0% 23.2%+2.9 ppt 26.5% 23.5%+3.0 ppt 22.7% 21.0% +1.7 ppt 27.6% 24.8%+2.8 ppt 30.7% 25.4%+5.3 ppt

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Citi Research Estimates Upward earnings revisions; reiterate our Buy on both names - We raise EMC's 2026/27/28E earnings by 20%/31%/44% to factor in price hikes and enhanced product mix. We thus raise EMC's TP to NT$7,400 (28x 2027E EPS) from NT$6,000 (30x 2027E EPS). For TUC, we raise 2026/27/28E earnings by 21%/29%/27% to factor in price hike and enhanced product mix as well. We lift our TUC TP to NT$2,300 (23x 2027E EPS) from NT$1,950 (25x 2027E EPS). We lower PE multiple for both names given recent AI concerns amid the rate hike backdrop.

Figure 1. EMC - 3Q26 Results

(NT$mn) 3Q26 Actual 2Q26 Actual Q/Q 3Q25 Actual Y/Y 3Q26 Citi Diff. 3Q26 Cons. Diff.
Revenue 60,885 47,275 29% 25,146 142% 55,427 10% 56,148 8%
Gross profit 22,951 16,003 43% 7,576 203% 20,104 14% 20,073 14%
Gross margin 37.7% 33.9% +3.8 ppt 30.1% +7.6 ppt 36.3% +1.4 ppt 35.7% +1.9 ppt
Op. profit 18,687 12,734 47% 4,990 274% 15,344 22% 16,232 15%
OP margin 30.7% 26.9% +3.8 ppt 19.8%+10.8 ppt 27.7% +3.0 ppt 28.9% +1.8 ppt
Net income 14,500 9,873 47% 3,965 266% 12,035 20% 12,566 15%
EPS (NT$) 40.47 27.55 47% 11.19 262% 33.58 20% 35.24 15%

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Citi Research Estimates, Company Reports, Bloomberg [讀者資訊已遮蔽]

Figure 5. EMC - Forecast Summary

EM C (NT$ in Mn, year-end Dec) 1Q 2Q 2026 3Q E 4Q E 1QE 2QE 2027 3Q E 4Q E 4Q E 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E 2028E
Revenue 33,067 47,275 60,885 71,847 74,914 78,424 89,297 100,092 27,201 38,500 38,673 41,296 64,377 94,261 213,074 342,728 478,246 478,246
COGS -23,338 -31,272 -37,934 -42,938 -43,344 -45,325 -50,725 -56,502 -20,161 -28,431 -28,962 -29,964 -46,407 -66,141 -135,482 -195,895 -254,446 -254,446
Depreciation costs -480 -523 -608 -736 -1,155 -1,359 -1,508 -1,662 -543 -615 -643 -1,104 -1,501 -1,522 -2,346 -5,685 -7,866 -7,866
Gross Profit 9,729 16,003 22,951 28,909 31,570 33,100 38,572 43,590 7,040 10,069 9,710 11,333 17,970 28,120 77,592 146,833 223,801 223,801
Operating Expense -2,601 -3,269 -4,264 -5,754 -5,400 -5,653 -6,525 -7,313 -2,357 -3,146 -3,485 -3,987 -5,818 -9,012 -15,888 -24,890 -34,458 -34,458
SG&A expenses -1,829 -2,357 -3,101 -4,311 -4,195 -4,392 -5,001 -5,605 -1,781 -2,379 -2,532 -2,717 -4,048 -6,865 -11,598 -19,193 -26,304 -26,304
R&D expenses -764 -907 -1,157 -1,437 -1,199 -1,255 -1,518 -1,702 -583 -771 -953 -1,267 -1,747 -2,142 -4,265 -5,673 -8,130 -8,130
EBIT 7,128 12,734 18,687 23,155 26,170 27,447 32,047 36,278 4,683 6,923 6,225 7,346 12,152 19,108 61,703 121,942 189,342 189,342
Net Interest Income -65 -89 -144 -135 -140 -140 -140 -140 14 -24 -122 -198 -315 -216 -433 -560 -546 -546
Net Other Income 131 140 161 105 100 100 140 120 147 13 193 271 297 -16 537 460 460 460
Pre-Tax Profit 7,194 12,785 18,703 23,125 26,130 27,407 32,047 36,258 4,844 6,912 6,296 7,420 12,133 18,876 61,808 121,842 189,256 189,256
Tax -1,855 -2,914 -4,204 -4,426 -6,271 -5,481 -7,050 -8,448 -1,149 -1,412 -1,220 -1,931 -2,564 -4,231 -13,400 -27,251 -42,268 -42,268
Net Profit 5,340 9,873 14,500 18,700 19,860 21,927 24,999 27,812 3,689 5,493 5,073 5,488 9,578 14,649 48,413 94,597 146,995 146,995
EPS (NT$) 14.90 27.55 40.47 52.19 55.43 61.19 69.77 77.62 11.39 16.50 15.24 16.43 27.83 41.86 135.11 264.00 410.23 410.23
Key Drivers
Margins (%)
Gross Margin 29.4% 33.9% 37.7% 40.2% 42.1% 42.2% 43.2% 43.6% 25.9% 26.2% 25.1% 27.4% 27.9% 29.8% 36.4% 42.8% 46.8%
Operating Margin 21.6% 26.9% 30.7% 32.2% 34.9% 35.0% 35.9% 36.2% 17.2% 18.0% 16.1% 17.8% 18.9% 20.3% 29.0% 35.6% 39.6% 39.6%
Net Margin 16.1% 20.9% 23.8% 26.0% 26.5% 28.0% 28.0% 27.8% 13.6% 14.3% 13.1% 13.3% 14.9% 15.5% 22.7% 27.6% 30.7%
Sequential Growth (%)
Revenue 33% 43% 29% 18% 4% 5% 14% 12% 9% 42% 0% 7% 56% 46% 61% 126% 40% 126% 40% 126% 40% 126% 40%
Gross Profit 37% 64% 43% 26% 9% 5% 17% 13% 15% 43% -4% 17% 59% 56% 176% 52% 52% 52%
EBIT 44% 79% 47% 24% 13% 5% 17% 13% 15% 48% -10% 18% 65% 57% 223% 98% 55%
Net Profit 43% 85% 47% 29% 6% 10% 14% 11% 14% 49% -8% 8% 75% 53% 95% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 55%
EPS 40% 85% 47% 29% 6% 10% 14% 11% 12% 45% -8% 8% 69% 50% 95% 223% 55% 223% 55% 223% 55% 223% 55%

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Citi Research Estimates, Company Reports

Figure 6. TUC - 3Q26 Results

(NT$mn) 3Q26 Actual 2Q26 Actual Q/Q 3Q25 Actual Y/Y 3Q26 Citi Diff. 3Q26 Cons. Diff.
Revenue 17,949 14,301 26% 8,063 123% 16,677 8% 17,173 5%
Gross profit 6,628 4,250 56% 1,915 246% 5,446 22% 5,460 21%
Gross margin 36.9% 29.7% +7.2 ppt 23.7%+13.2 ppt 32.7% +4.3 ppt 31.8% +5.1 ppt
Op. profit 5,568 3,358 66% 1,266 340% 4,343 28% 4,441 25%
OP margin 31.0% 23.5% +7.5 ppt 15.7%+15.3 ppt 26.0% +5.0 ppt 25.9% +5.2 ppt
Net income 3,857 2,342 65% 1,003 285% 3,312 16% 3,342 15%
EPS (NT$) 12.72 7.73 65% 3.44 270% 11.36 12% 11.67 9%

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Citi Research Estimates, Company Reports, Bloomberg [讀者資訊已遮蔽]

Figure 7. TUC - Earnings Revisions

(NT$mn) 4Q26E - New 4Q26E - Old 4Q26E - Chg. 1Q26E - New 1Q26E - Old 1Q26E - Chg. 2026E - New 2026E - Old 2026E - Chg. 2027E - New 2027E - Old 2027E - Chg. 2028E - New 2028E - Old 2028E - Chg.
Sales 20,928 17,989 16%22,094 19,236 15%63,232 59,021 7% 111,763 100,038 12% 159,210 139,243 14%
Sequential growth (%) 17% 8% 6% 7% 108% 95% 77% 69% 42% 39%
Gross profit 8,227 5,967 38% 9,062 6,615 37% 21,634 18,191 19% 46,079 36,910 25% 68,294 54,757 25%
Opex -1,275 -1,187 7% -1,371 -1,308 5% -3,928 -3,882 1% -6,929 -6,629 5%-9,753-8,886 10%
Operating profit 6,952 4,780 45% 7,691 5,307 45% 17,706 14,309 24% 39,150 30,281 29% 58,542 45,871 28%
Pre-tax profit 6,977 4,830 44% 7,679 5,329 44% 17,872 14,489 23% 39,155 30,389 29%58,536 45,980 27%
Net income 5,582 3,864 44% 5,683 3,943 44% 13,040 10,778 21% 29,782 23,117 29% 44,517 34,965 27%
EPS (NT$) 18.41 13.25 39% 18.74 13.52 39% 43.04 36.96 16% 98.23 79.28 24% 146.83 119.92 22%
Gross margin (%) 39.3% 33.2% +6.1 ppt 41.0% 34.4%+6.6 ppt 34.2% 30.8%+3.4 ppt 41.2% 36.9%+4.3 ppt 42.9% 39.3%+3.6 ppt
Opex ratio (%) -6.1% -6.6%+0.5 ppt -6.2% -6.8%+0.6 ppt -6.2% -6.6%+0.4 ppt -6.2% -6.6%+0.4 ppt -6.1% -6.4%+0.3 ppt
Operating margin (%) 33.2% 26.6%+6.6 ppt 34.8% 27.6% +7.2 ppt 28.0% 24.2%+3.8 ppt 35.0% 30.3%+4.8 ppt 36.8% 32.9%+3.8 ppt
Net margin (%) 26.7% 21.5%+5.2 ppt 25.7% 20.5%+5.2 ppt 20.6% 18.3%+2.4 ppt 26.6% 23.1%+3.5 ppt 28.0% 25.1%+2.9 ppt

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Citi Research Estimates [讀者資訊已遮蔽]

Figure 10. TUC - Forecast Summary

TUC (NT$ in Mn, year-end Dec) 1Q 2Q 2026 3Q E 4Q E 1QE 2QE 2027 3Q E 4Q E 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Revenue 10,054 14,301 17,949 20,928 22,094 25,761 31,262 32,647 17,527 18,047 21,132 18,472 16,003 23,070 30,340 63,232 111,763 159,210
COGS -7,525 -10,051 -11,321 -12,701 -13,032 -15,271 -18,209 -19,172 -13,389 -13,822 -16,702 -15,067 -12,844 -17,729 -23,442 -41,599 -65,684 -90,915
Depreciation costs -109 -101 -105 -161 -269 -338 -393 -448 -317 -332 -360 -379 -375 -363 -359 -476 -1,447 -2,184
Gross Profit 2,529 4,250 6,628 8,227 9,062 10,491 13,052 13,474 4,138 4,225 4,430 3,405 3,159 5,342 6,898 21,634 46,079 68,294
Operating Expense -701 -892 -1,060 -1,275 -1,371 -1,599 -1,937 -2,023 -1,981 -1,951 -2,050 -1,908 -1,735 -2,010 -2,554 -3,928 -6,929 -9,753
SG&A expenses -605 -772 -879 -1,067 -1,105 -1,288 -1,563 -1,632 -1,748 -1,667 -1,786 -1,597 -1,422 -1,668 -2,039 -3,324 -5,588 -7,801
R&D expenses -95 -118 -182 -209 -265 -309 -375 -392 -272 -269 -264 -311 -310 -359 -514 -604 -1,341 -1,951
EBIT 1,828 3,358 5,568 6,952 7,691 8,892 11,115 11,452 2,157 2,273 2,380 1,498 1,424 3,332 4,344 17,706 39,150 58,542
Net Interest Income -7 -10 -23 -20 -17 -10 -15 -13 0 12 18 46 100 90 42 -60 -55 -66
Net Other Income 53 79 49 45 5 5 5 45 79 -22 16 77 26 -45 133 226 60 60
Pre-Tax Profit 1,874 3,427 5,594 6,977 7,679 8,887 11,105 11,484 2,235 2,264 2,413 1,621 1,550 3,378 4,519 17,872 39,155 58,536
Tax -614 -1,085 -1,738 -1,395 -1,997 -1,955 -2,665 -2,756 -483 -488 -532 -360 -726 -773 -1,109 -4,832 -9,373 -14,018
Net Profit 1,260 2,342 3,857 5,582 5,683 6,932 8,440 8,728 1,752 1,776 1,881 1,261 823 2,604 3,409 13,040 29,782 44,517
EPS -diluted (NT$) 4.17 7.73 12.72 18.41 18.98 23.15 28.18 29.14 6.55 6.38 6.70 4.46 3.01 9.15 11.71 43.04 98.23 146.83
Revenue breakdown
HSD 82% 80% 79% 78% 80% 77% 79% 77% 85% 84% 84% 84% 84% 84% 79% 78% 75%
HDI 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 8% 8% 8% 8% 6% 7% 6% 6% 5%
Others 12% 14% 15% 16% 14% 17% 15% 18% 7% 9% 8% 8% 11% 9% 15% 16% 20%
Margins (%)
Gross Margin 25.1% 29.7% 36.9% 39.3% 41.0% 40.7% 41.8% 41.3% 23.6% 23.4% 21.0% 18.4% 19.7% 23.2% 22.7% 34.2% 41.2% 42.9%
Operating Margin 18.2% 23.5% 31.0% 33.2% 34.8% 34.5% 35.6% 35.1% 12.3% 12.6% 11.3% 8.1% 8.9% 14.4% 14.3% 28.0% 35.0% 36.8%
Net Margin 12.5% 16.4% 21.5% 26.7% 25.7% 26.9% 27.0% 26.7% 10.0% 9.8% 8.9% 6.8% 5.1% 11.3% 11.2% 20.6% 26.6% 28.0%
Sequential Growth (%)
Revenue 10% 42% 26% 17% 6% 17% 21% 4% -1% 3% 17% -13% -13% 44% 32% 108% 77% 42%
Gross Profit 26% 68% 56% 24% 10% 16% 24% 3% 3% 2% 5% -23% -7% 69% 29% 214% 113% 48%
EBIT 42% 84% 66% 25% 11% 16% 25% 3% -10% 5% 5% -37% -5% 134% 30% 308% 121% 50%
Net Profit 16% 86% 65% 45% 2% 22% 22% 3% -5% 1% 6% -33% -35% 216% 31% 283% 128% 49%
EPS 12% 85% 65% 45% 3% 22% 22% 3% -8% -3% 5% -33% -33% 204% 28% 267% 128% 49%

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Citi Research Estimates, Company Reports [讀者資訊已遮蔽] [讀者資訊已遮蔽] [讀者資訊已遮蔽]

2383.TW: Fiscal year end 31-Dec - Profit & Loss (NT$m) Price: NT$5,025.00; TP: NT$7,400.00; Market Cap: NT$1,800,564m; Recomm: Buy - 2024 Price: NT$5,025.00; TP: NT$7,400.00; Market Cap: NT$1,800,564m; Recomm: Buy - 2025 Price: NT$5,025.00; TP: NT$7,400.00; Market Cap: NT$1,800,564m; Recomm: Buy - 2026E Price: NT$5,025.00; TP: NT$7,400.00; Market Cap: NT$1,800,564m; Recomm: Buy - 2027E Price: NT$5,025.00; TP: NT$7,400.00; Market Cap: NT$1,800,564m; Recomm: Buy - 2028E Price: NT$5,025.00; TP: NT$7,400.00; Market Cap: NT$1,800,564m; Recomm: Buy - Valuation ratios Price: NT$5,025.00; TP: NT$7,400.00; Market Cap: NT$1,800,564m; Recomm: Buy - 2024 Price: NT$5,025.00; TP: NT$7,400.00; Market Cap: NT$1,800,564m; Recomm: Buy - 2025 Price: NT$5,025.00; TP: NT$7,400.00; Market Cap: NT$1,800,564m; Recomm: Buy - 2026E Price: NT$5,025.00; TP: NT$7,400.00; Market Cap: NT$1,800,564m; Recomm: Buy - 2027E Price: NT$5,025.00; TP: NT$7,400.00; Market Cap: NT$1,800,564m; Recomm: Buy - 2028E
Sales revenue 64,377 94,261 213,074 342,728 478,246 PE (x) na na 37.2 19.0 12.2
Cost of sales -46,407 -66,141 -135,482 -195,895 -254,446 PB (x) 49.3 35.0 19.7 9.7 5.4
Gross profit 17,970 28,120 77,592 146,833 223,801 EV/EBITDA (x) na 86.2 27.9 13.7 8.4
Gross Margin (%) 27.9 29.8 36.4 42.8 46.8 FCF yield (%) 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.7 6.6
EBITDA (Adj) 13,866 20,903 64,492 128,710 198,707 Dividend yield (%) 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.6 3.2
EBITDA Margin (Adj) (%) 21.5 22.2 30.3 37.6 41.5 Payout ratio (%) 36 39 18 31 39
Depreciation -1,714 -1,795 -2,789 -6,768 -9,364 ROE (%) 30.9 34.2 68.2 68.1 56.6
Amortisation 0 0 0 0 0 Cashflow (NT$m) 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
EBIT (Adj) 12,152 19,108 61,703 121,942 189,342 EBITDA 13,866 20,903 64,492 128,710 198,707
EBIT Margin (Adj) (%) 18.9 20.3 29.0 35.6 39.6 Working capital -5,993 -4,367 -12,936 -7,534 -9,268
Net interest -315 -216 -433 -560 -546 Other -2,564 -4,455 -13,285 -27,339 -42,342
Associates -159 -442 55 60 60 Operating cashflow 5,310 12,081 38,272 93,837 147,097
Non-Op/Except/Other Adj 456 426 482 400 400 Capex -5,867 -9,490 -27,819 -28,000 -28,000
Pre-tax profit 12,133 18,876 61,808 121,842 189,256 Net acq/disposals 396 -95 574 0 0
Tax -2,564 -4,231 -13,400 -27,251 -42,268 Other 0 0 0 0 0
Extraord./Min.Int./Pref.div. 9 4 5 6 6 Investing cashflow -5,470 -9,585 -27,245 -28,000 -28,000
Reported net profit 9,578 14,649 48,413 94,597 146,995 Dividends paid -3,439 -5,894 -8,936 -29,048 -56,758
Net Margin (%) 14.9 15.5 22.7 27.6 30.7 Financing cashflow 5,890 4,622 6,860 5,107 4,954
Core NPAT 9,578 14,649 48,413 94,597 146,995 Net change in cash 5,729 7,117 17,887 70,944 124,051
Per share data 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E Free cashflow to s/holders -557 2,591 10,453 65,837 119,097
Reported EPS ($) 27.83 41.86 135.11 264.00 410.23
Core EPS ($) 27.83 41.86 135.11 264.00 410.23
DPS ($) 9.92 16.45 24.94 81.07 158.40
CFPS ($) 15.42 34.52 106.81 261.88 410.52
FCFPS ($) -1.62 7.40 29.17 183.74 332.38
BVPS ($) 101.93 143.52 255.46 519.46 929.69
Wtd avg ord shares (m) 344 350 358 358 358
Wtd avg diluted shares (m) 344 350 358 358 358
Growth rates 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales revenue (%) 55.9 46.4 126.0 60.8 39.5
EBIT (Adj) (%) 65.4 57.2 222.9 97.6 55.3
Core NPAT (%) 74.5 52.9 230.5 95.4 55.4
Core EPS (%) 69.4 50.4 222.8 95.4 55.4
Balance Sheet (NT$m) 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & cash equiv. 14,988 20,008 35,943 106,843 230,850
Accounts receivables 25,897 36,115 91,286 125,127 159,579
Inventory 9,437 16,752 30,814 41,897 52,528
Net fixed & other tangibles 23,983 33,830 60,187 81,419 100,055
Goodwill & intangibles 585 103 110 110 110
Financial & other assets 1,189 1,106 2,356 3,207 4,074
Total assets 76,080 107,913 220,697 358,604 547,196
Accounts payable 15,963 24,518 51,886 69,692 86,771
Short-term debt 7,781 11,264 15,776 15,776 15,776
Long-term debt 8,772 8,219 16,361 21,468 26,422
Provisions & other liab 8,470 13,477 45,164 65,567 85,137
Total liabilities 40,986 57,477 129,187 172,503 214,107
Shareholders' equity 35,111 -17 50,456 91,536 186,133 333,127 -38
Minority interests Total equity 35,094 -20 50,435 -26 91,510 -32 186,101
-525 -3,805 -69,598 333,089
Net debt (Adj) 1,565 -188,652
Net debt to equity (Adj) (%) 4.5 -1.0
For definitions of the items in this table, please click here. -4.2 -37.4 -56.6
6274.TWO: Fiscal year end 31-Dec 6274.TWO: Fiscal year end 31-Dec 6274.TWO: Fiscal year end 31-Dec 6274.TWO: Fiscal year end 31-Dec 6274.TWO: Fiscal year end 31-Dec 6274.TWO: Fiscal year end 31-Dec Price: NT$1,375.00; TP: NT$2,300.00; Market Cap: NT$411,758m; Recomm: Buy
Profit & Loss (NT$m) 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E Valuation ratios 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales revenue 23,070 30,340 63,232 111,763 159,210 PE (x) na na 31.9 14.0 9.4
Cost of sales -17,729 -23,442 -41,599 -65,684 -90,915 PB (x) 27.7 21.5 12.4 6.6 3.9
Gross profit 5,342 6,898 21,634 46,079 68,294 EV/EBITDA (x) na 85.9 22.5 9.9 6.2
Gross Margin (%) 23.2 22.7 34.2 41.2 42.9 FCF yield (%) -0.1 -0.3 -0.8 3.3 6.9
EBITDA (Adj) 3,784 4,803 18,376 41,243 61,700 Dividend yield (%) 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.0 4.6
EBITDA Margin (Adj) (%) 16.4 15.8 29.1 36.9 38.8 Payout ratio (%) 43 53 34 28 43
Depreciation -448 -447 -671 -2,093 -3,158 ROE (%) 20.1 20.7 50.0 61.4 52.0
Amortisation -5 -13 0 0 0 Cashflow (NT$m) 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
EBIT (Adj) 3,332 4,344 17,706 39,150 58,542 EBITDA 3,784 4,803 18,376 41,243 61,700
EBIT Margin (Adj) (%) 14.4 14.3 28.0 35.0 36.8 Working capital -2,379 -3,272 -10,351 -9,979 -15,001
Net interest 90 42 -60 -55 -66 Other -728 -935 -4,666 -9,368 -14,024
Associates -49 35 46 40 40 Operating cashflow 677 596 3,360 21,896 32,675
Non-Op/Except/Other Adj 5 98 180 20 20 Capex -1,196 -1,949 -6,823 -8,000 -4,000
Pre-tax profit 3,378 4,519 17,872 39,155 58,536 Net acq/disposals -993 -528 1,700 0 0
Tax -773 -1,109 -4,832 -9,373 -14,018 Other 1,059 -4,025 0 0 1
Extraord./Min.Int./Pref.div. 0 0 0 0 0 Investing cashflow -1,130 -6,502 -5,122 -8,000 -3,999
Reported net profit 2,604 3,409 13,040 29,782 44,517 Dividends paid -1,090 -1,797 -4,333 -8,280 -18,911
Net Margin (%) 11.3 11.2 20.6 26.6 28.0 Financing cashflow 1,376 4,888 1,800 2,254 2,247
Core NPAT 2,604 3,409 13,040 29,782 44,517 Net change in cash 1,322 -1,018 37 16,149 30,923
Per share data 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E Free cashflow to s/holders -519 -1,353 -3,463 13,896 28,675
Reported EPS ($) 9.15 11.71 43.04 98.23 146.83
Core EPS ($) 9.15 11.71 43.04 98.23 146.83
DPS ($) 3.95 6.22 14.47 27.66 63.18
CFPS ($) 2.38 2.05 11.09 72.22 107.77
FCFPS -1.82 -4.65 -11.43 45.83 94.58
($) BVPS ($) 49.64 63.84 110.79 209.02 355.85
Wtd avg ord shares (m) 272 278 295 299 299
Wtd avg diluted shares (m) 285 291 303 303 303
Growth rates 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales revenue (%) 44.2 31.5 108.4 76.8 42.5
EBIT (Adj) (%) 133.9 30.4 307.6 121.1 49.5
Core NPAT (%) 216.3 30.9 282.5 128.4 49.5
Core EPS (%) 204.0 28.1 267.4 128.2 49.5
Balance Sheet (NT$m) 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & cash equiv. 6,280 5,165 6,443 22,593 53,515
Accounts receivables 9,711 13,823 29,372 41,098 58,719
Inventory 3,189 7,405 12,808 19,143 28,338
Net fixed & other tangibles 5,604 7,349 10,562 16,469 17,310
Goodwill & intangibles 10 36 39 39 39
Financial & other assets 1,084 5,963 2,964 5,089 8,090
Total assets 25,878 39,741 62,188 104,431 166,012
Accounts payable 5,499 10,320 15,275 22,766 33,638
Short-term debt 962 2,141 2,894 2,894 2,894
Long-term debt 3,449 6,304 5,058 7,312 9,559
Provisions & other liab 1,631 2,363 5,369 8,086 12,029
Total liabilities 11,541 21,127 28,596 41,057 58,120
Shareholders' equity 14,337 18,614 33,592 63,374 107,892
Minority interests 0 0 0 0 0
Total equity 14,337 18,614 33,592 63,374 107,892
Net debt (Adj) -1,869 3,280 1,509 -12,387 -41,062
Net debt to equity (Adj) (%) -13.0
For definitions of the items in this table, please click here. 17.6 4.5 -19.5 -38.1

Bull/Bear: Elite Material (2383.TW)

Spread 119pp

Current Price and expected returns (upside/downside) as of 28 Oct 2026

BULLAssumptions

  • Higher market share in AI ASIC customers' Al servers
  • Higher market share in Al GPU customers' Al servers
  • Wider adoption of M9 or Q-glass in Al servers
  • Less strict practice of OOC policies by end customers

BASE Assumptions

  • High market share in AI ASIC customers' Al servers
  • 中 · Major supplier of AI GPU customers' Al switch boards
  • Adoption of M9 in next-gen AI GPU customers' Al servers
  • Spec migration to M8 in AI ASIC servers with higher layer count

BEAR Assumptions

  • New CCL competitor joining; lower market share in Al ASIC customers' Al servers
  • New CCL competitor joining; lower market share in AI GPU customers' Al servers
  • Less adoption of M9 or Q-glass in the next Al servers

[讀者資訊已遮蔽]

Bull/Bear: TUC (6274.TWO)

Spread 109pp

Current Price and expected returns (upside/downside) as of 28 Oct 2026

BULLAssumptions

  • New project wins or share gains in Al customers
  • Faster-than-expected CCL upgrade trend
  • Stronger-than-expected Al server/8O0G demand

BASE Assumptions

  • 2nd supplier in Al ASIC customers' Al servers
  • 800G enteringinto mass production industrywide
  • CCL spec migration to M8 for AI ASIC servers or 8OOG switches

BEAR Assumptions

  • Slower-than-expected CCL upgrade trend
  • Weaker-than-expected Al server/8OOG demand
  • Production bottlenecks in Al supply chain

中

[讀者資訊已遮蔽]

Elite Material

Company description

Established in 1992 in Taoyuan, Taiwan, EMC is a global leading copper clad laminate (CCL) and prepreg supplier for HDI and smartphone applications. EMC has developed several green materials products, from Mid Loss, Low Loss, Very Low Loss, Ultra Low Loss down to Extreme Low Loss categories. In the past few years, EMC has continued to gain presence in AI datacenter, networking and HPC sectors. In the AI server market, EMC is one of the key suppliers to global AI GPU customers and a major supplier to US CSPs for AI ASIC projects.

Investment strategy

We are positive over EMC's long-term growth outlook as we believe its technology leadership in high-end CCL should position it well to benefit from the structural spec migration in PCB materials amid the AI demand boom. We expect EMC to maintain its market share in AI GPU projects and to gradually gain share in next-gen ASIC projects in 2026. Given its leading position in high-end CCL, sufficient raw material support, expanding capacity and solid earnings outlook, we rate EMC a Buy.

Valuation

Our target price for EMC is set at NT$7,400, based on a target PE multiple of 28x on our 2027E EPS average. We believe our target PE multiple, at the peak of its forward PE average in the past 5 years, is justified by a strong earnings outlook supported by its leading position in CCL supply for AI GPU and ASIC (high m/s) from 2026E onwards. We also believe the continued spec upgrade for CCL, price hikes and product mix enhancement should help support its margin expansion going forward. At our target price, the shares would trade at 55x/28x 2026E/27E PB.

Risks

Citi's quant system rates EMC high-risk given high share price volatility, which we largely attribute to frequent debates over the spec upgrade for next-gen AI servers. In general, we believe some investors initially tend to have high hope for aggressive spec upgrade without sufficiently considering the scalability and cost structure of CCL products, which then leads to a shortfall in the end. However, from a longer-term perspective, we see a decent and clear spec upgrade trend with meaningful ASP growth potential among AI servers of different generations. As such, we do not assign a high-risk rating.

Key downside risks that could prevent the shares from reaching our target price include: 1) a slower-than-expected CCL upgrade trend; 2) weaker-thanexpected AI server demand; 3) production bottlenecks in AI supply chain (eg, glass, copper foil, foundry or OSAT); 4) unexpected share loss in key AI server projects; and 5) stricter practice of OOC policy by end customers.

TUC

[讀者資訊已遮蔽]

Company description

TUC was established in 1974 and mainly produced optical glass initially. Since 1997, it started to provide copper clad laminate (CCL) and prepreg. Headquartered in Hsinchu, Taiwan, TUC has an extensive global service network spanning mainland China, Japan, Korea, the US and Germany. It has been specializing in high-speed CCL for networking and now has a strong position in supplying 800G switch opportunities. The company also started to supply AI ASIC from 2025.

Investment strategy

We expect increasing AI ASIC exposure for TUC as it continues to see new project opportunities among US CSP customers, including the high-end CCL market for Trainium chip. We like TUC as it has production expertise in highspeed CCL products, especially in networking, such as 800G, and has long built solid relationships with upstream high-end materials suppliers to ensure raw material support. We rate TUC a Buy given meaningful 800G ramp from 2026E onwards and its increasing opportunities in AI projects within CSPs and enterprise players.

Valuation

Our target price for TUC is set at NT$2,300, based on a target PE multiple of 23x on our 2027E EPS. We believe our target PE multiple, at the peak of TUC's PE average in the last upcycle, is justified by its strong margin expansion potential on a higher sales mix from AI ASIC server/800G products and price hikes on supply tightness. We believe TUC's growth outlook is well supported by AI ASIC and 800G with its capacity ramp in Thailand from 3Q26 onward. At our target price, the shares would trade at 2026E/27E PB of 53x/23x.

Risks

Citi's quant system rates TUC High Risk given high share price volatility, which we largely attribute to frequent debates over the spec upgrade for next-gen AI servers. In general, we believe some investors initially tend to have high hope for aggressive spec upgrade without sufficiently considering the scalability and cost structure of CCL products, which then leads to a shortfall in the end. However, from a longer-term perspective, we see a decent and clear spec upgrade trend with meaningful ASP growth potential among AI servers of different generations. As such, we do not assign a High Risk rating.

Key downside risks that could prevent the shares from reaching our target price include: 1) a slower-than-expected CCL upgrade trend; 2) weaker-thanexpected AI server/800G demand; 3) production bottlenecks in AI supply chain (e.g., glass, copper foil, foundry, or OSAT); 4) unexpected share loss in key AI server projects; 5) flexible practice of OOC policy by end customers; and 6) slow development of the PCB industry in Southeast Asia.

[讀者資訊已遮蔽] If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the details of the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside the US +1-210-677-3788

Appendix A-1

圖片清單（已驗證 2026-10-29）

檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
報告_Citi_台灣CCL產業_3Q26_20261028_001.png 114KB 真資料圖 Figure 3 台光電 12M Forward P/E Band（Jan-12 至 Aug-26，倍數線 4.7x／9.4x／14.1x／18.7x／23.4x）與 Figure 4 12M Forward P/B Band（-1.3x／1.7x／4.8x／7.9x／11.0x，疊 ROE 右軸）；股價 2026 年急升至約 NT$6,000 附近、貼近高倍數線
報告_Citi_台灣CCL產業_3Q26_20261028_002.png 120KB 真資料圖 Figure 8 台燿 12M Forward P/E Band（倍數線 6.8x／11.0x／15.2x／19.3x／23.5x）與 Figure 9 P/B Band（-1.2x／0.9x／3.1x／5.2x／7.3x，疊 ROE）；股價 2026 年急升至約 NT$1,800 附近
報告_Citi_台灣CCL產業_3Q26_20261028_003.png 91KB 真資料圖 台光電 Bull／Base／Bear 目標價圖：Bull NT$8,000（+59%）、Base NT$7,400（+47%）、Bear NT$2,000（-60%）；2026-10-28 收盤 NT$5,025
報告_Citi_台灣CCL產業_3Q26_20261028_004.png 93KB 真資料圖 台燿 Bull／Base／Bear 目標價圖：Bull NT$2,500（+82%）、Base NT$2,300（+67%）、Bear NT$1,000（-27%）；2026-10-28 收盤 NT$1,375
報告_Citi_台灣CCL產業_3Q26_20261028_005.png 144KB 文字卡 台光電／台燿評等與目標價歷史（Jack Chen）：台光電 2026-01-12 TP 2,100、03-11 TP 3,000、04-29 TP 5,100、07-29 TP 6,000；台燿 01-12 TP 600、03-11 TP 660、05-06 TP 1,600、06-17 TP 1,950；評等皆為 1（Buy）
報告_Citi_台灣CCL產業_3Q26_20261028_006.png 149KB 文字卡 台燿／台光電 Short-Term View／Catalyst Watch 歷史表：台燿 2026-01-12 Add CW、02-11 Remove CW、06-17 Add CW、07-17 Remove CW；台光電 01-12 Add CW（90 天）、04-12 Remove CW

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