PDF 原檔：報告_UBS_力成6239_3Q26_20261027_original.pdf
原始內容
First Read
Powertech Technology
Subsidiaries drive stronger revenue/OP growth; FOPLP expansion back on track
Q326 results broadly in-line despite better GM
Q326 EPS of NT$3.54 was broadly in-line with UBSe/consensus as stronger revenue and better GM were offset by higher tax and minority interests. Q326 sales rose 9.6% QoQ to NT$25.3 bn on robust DRAM/eSSD demand and price hikes, ahead of UBSe/Street's +5-6% QoQ. GM expanded by 2.2ppt QoQ to 24.0%, supported by better pricing, higher loadings and more favourable mix. By business, higher GM testing increased by 1ppt QoQ to 24% of total sales, while lower margin SiP/module declined 2ppt QoQ to 9%, and packaging increased 1ppt QoQ to 67%. By entity, we estimate 43%-owned Greatek and 61%-owned Teraprobe each delivered mid-teens % QoQ revenue growth in Q326, versus only mid-single % growth at PTI standalone. The stronger contribution from subsidiaries, however, resulted in higher effective tax rate and minority interests.
Near-term outloo remains constructive
Management remains constructive on the near-term outlook, supported by AI/cloud investment cycle, continued memory supply constraint, and PTI's ongoing diversification into non-memory segments. Q426F UTRs are expected to remain elevated following over-90% levels in Q3, while ASPs should continue to increase as customers absorb higher raw material costs. PTI is also expanding its exposure to logic Flip-Chip BGA, while premium-segment automotive demand remains stable. Nevertheless, consumer electronics demand is showing some weakness amid higher memory pricing. We forecast Q426 sales to grow 4% QoQ and GM to expand 0.8ppt QoQ to 24.8%. Looking into 2027E, we believe GM to remain in the mid-20% range, as continued memory supply tightness and better mix should largely offset higher depreciation.
FOPLP expansion bac on trac
PTI indicated its FOPLP expansion remains on track for mass production in 2027, with the equipment delivery schedule having improved. It sees robust customer demand with notable increases in New Product Introduction (NPI). We continue to model FOPLP capacity of 3K substrates/month in 2026E, rising to 6K by mid-2027E in Taiwan, with panel substrate size of 510 mm x 515 mm. Importantly, PTI aims to serve end-customers directly and capture greater value-add, rather than operate as an outsourcing partner to leading wafer foundry. Its JV with Broadcom remains under review by Taiwan's MOEA Investment Commission with management expecting a decision in the near-term.
Valuation: Raise PT to NT$280, retain NEUTRAL
We revise our 2026/27/28E EPS by 3%/9%/7% on better sales/GM, offset by higher tax and minority interest from subsidiaries. We raise PT to NT$280 (from NT$260) with the same 17x 2027E PE. While near-term outlook has improved we believe further upside will depend on the execution of the FOPLP ramp and the sustainability of pricing
| Highlights (NT$m) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 70,441 | 73,315 | 74,929 | 96,171 | 111,999 | 125,155 | 132,574 | 138,720 |
| EBIT (UBS) | 8,154 | 9,382 | 8,132 | 15,668 | 20,732 | 23,876 | 25,769 | 27,209 |
| Net earnings (UBS) | 8,009 | 6,789 | 5,536 | 9,562 | 12,257 | 14,036 | 15,234 | 16,196 |
| EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) | 10.72 | 9.08 | 7.47 | 12.94 | 16.59 | 19.00 | 20.62 | 21.92 |
| DPS (net) (NT$) | 8.81 | 8.20 | 8.43 | 4.73 | 6.47 | 8.30 | 9.50 | 10.31 |
| Net (debt) / cash | (2,751) | 3,510 | (13,741) | (25,936) | (35,558) | (34,741) | (23,433) | (10,439) |
| Profitability/valuation | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
| EBIT (UBS) margin % | 11.6 | 12.8 | 10.9 | 16.3 | 18.5 | 19.1 | 19.4 | 19.6 |
| ROIC (EBIT) % | 14.0 | 13.6 | 10.8 | 17.0 | 18.6 | 18.7 | 19.1 | 19.9 |
| EV/EBITDA (UBS core) x | 3.7 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 4.9 |
| P/E (UBS, diluted) x | 9.4 | 17.0 | 18.0 | 19.7 | 15.3 | 13.4 | 12.3 | 11.6 |
| Equity FCF (UBS) yield % | 14.2 | 10.0 | (8.9) | (10.1) | (4.6) | 1.2 | 6.8 | 7.9 |
| Dividend yield (net) % | 8.7 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 4.1 |
Source: Company accounts, LSEG Eikon, UBS estimates. Metrics marked as (UBS) have had analyst adjustments applied. Valuations: based on an average share price that year, (E): based on a share price of NT$ 254.50 on 27-Oct-2026
Equities
Taiwan
Semiconductors
12-month rating
12m price target Neutral NT$280.00
Price (27 Oct 2026)
Prior : NT$260.00
NT$254.50
RIC: 62 9.TWBBG: 62 9 TT
Trading data and key metrics
| 52-wk range | NT$379.00-151.00 |
|---|---|
| Market cap. | NT$193b/US$5.95b |
| Shares o/s | 759m (ORD) |
| Free float | 90% |
| Avg. daily volume ('000) | 15,401 |
| Avg. daily value (m) | NT$4,234.2 |
| Common s/h equity (12/26E) | NT$59.8b |
| P/BV (12/26E) | 3.1x |
| Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) | 0.9x |
| EPS (UBS, | From diluted) | To (TWD) | % ch | Cons. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/26E | 12.58 | 12.94 | 3 | 12.53 |
| 12/27E | 15.24 | 16.59 | 9 | 17.70 |
| 12/28E | 17.81 | 19.00 | 7 | 20.75 |
Jerry Su
Analyst jerry.su@ubs.com +886-28-722 7 06
Annie Chen
Associate Analyst annie.chen@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7281
outlook.
Figure 1: UBS vs. VA Consensus Q326A/Q426E and 2025A-27E
| 2Q26 | 3Q26 | 3Q26 | 3Q26 | 4Q26E | 4Q26E | 4Q26E | 2025 | 2025 | 2026E | 2025 | 2027E | 2027E | 2027E | 2028E | 2028E | 2028E | |
| (NT$m) | Actual | Actual | UBSe prior | VA | UBSe | UBSe prior | VA | Actual | UBSe | UBSe prior | VA | UBSe | UBSe prior | VA | UBSe | UBSe prior | VA |
| Revenue | 23,116 | 25,334 | 24,219 | 24,595 | 26,407 | 24,605 | 25,287 | 74,929 | 96,171 | 93,254 | 94,312 | 111,999 | 103,336 | 112,179 | 125,155 | 113,425 | 127,902 |
| - QoQ / YoY | 8.5% | 9.6% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 28.3% | 24.5% | 25.9% | 16.5% | 10.8% | 18.9% | 11.7% | 21.6% | 14.0% |
| Gross profit | 5,031 | 6,085 | 5,355 | 5,471 | 6,547 | 5,492 | 5,685 | 12,729 | 21,807 | 20,022 | 20,331 | 27,274 | 23,008 | 25,691 | 30,696 | 25,724 | 30,144 |
| - Gross margin | 21.8% | 24.0% | 22.1% | 22.2% | 24.8% | 22.3% | 22.5% | 17.0% | 22.7% | 21.5% | 21.6% | 24.4% | 22.3% | 22.9% | 24.5% | 22.7% | 23.6% |
| Operating profit | 3,531 | 4,472 | 3,887 | 4,008 | 4,904 | 4,025 | 4,188 | 8,132 | 15,668 | 14,204 | 14,488 | 20,732 | 17,028 | 19,370 | 23,876 | 19,599 | 23,367 |
| - OP margin | 15.3% | 17.7% | 16.1% | 16.3% | 18.6% | 16.4% | 16.6% | 10.9% | 16.3% | 15.2% | 15.4% | 18.5% | 16.5% | 17.3% | 19.1% | 17.3% | 18.3% |
| Non-Op | 131 | 85 | 113 | 91 | 35 | 73 | 87 | 660 | 647 | 712 | 704 | 230 | 204 | 352 | 131 | 19 | 342 |
| Pre-tax profit | 3,661 | 4,557 | 4,000 | 4,099 | 4,939 | 4,098 | 4,275 | 8,792 | 16,314 | 14,917 | 15,192 | 20,963 | 17,233 | 19,721 | 24,006 | 19,618 | 23,709 |
| Tax | 811 | 992 | 760 | 804 | 1,037 | 779 | 839 | 1,572 | 3,611 | 3,120 | 3,224 | 4,578 | 3,400 | 4,076 | 5,247 | 3,874 | 4,952 |
| - Tax rate | -22% | -22% | -19% | -20% | -21% | -19% | -20% | -18% | -22% | -21% | -21% | -22% | -20% | -21% | -22% | -20% | -21% |
| Net profit | 2,219 | 2,612 | 2,578 | 2,648 | 2,887 | 2,657 | 2,770 | 5,536 | 9,562 | 9,298 | 9,482 | 12,257 | 11,259 | 12,769 | 14,036 | 13,159 | 15,504 |
| EPS (NT$) | 3.00 | 3.54 | 3.49 | 3.52 | 3.91 | 3.60 | 3.70 | 7.47 | 12.94 | 12.58 | 12.66 | 16.59 | 15.24 | 17.25 | 19.00 | 17.81 | 21.83 |
Source: Company data, UBS estimates, Visible Alpha
Figure 2: Powertech annual P&L summary
| Ticker Shares outstanding (mn) - Year | Ticker Shares outstanding (mn) - 2025 | 6239.TWCurrent 738.8 - 2026E | Price (NT$) Mkt cap (NT$ mn) - 2027E | Price (NT$) Mkt cap (NT$ mn) - 2028E | $254.5 $188,024 - 2029E | $254.5 $188,024 - 2030E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues (NT$ mn) | $74,929 | $96,171 | $111,999 | $125,155 | $132,574 | $138,720 |
| YoY Growth (%) | 28.3% | 16.5% | 11.7% | 5.9% | 4.6% | |
| Gross profit (NT$mn) | $12,729 | $21,807 | $27,274 | $30,696 | $32,813 | $34,485 |
| GM (%) | 17.0% | 22.7% | 24.4% | 24.5% | 24.8% | 24.9% |
| Operating profit (NT$mn) | $8,132 | $15,668 | $20,732 | $23,876 | $25,769 | $27,209 |
| OPM (%) | 10.9% | 16.3% | 18.5% | 19.1% | 19.4% | 19.6% |
| Net profit (NT$ mn) | $5,536 | $9,562 | $12,257 | $14,036 | $15,234 | $16,196 |
| EPS (NT$) | $7.47 | $12.94 | $16.59 | $19.00 | $20.62 | $21.92 |
| EPS growth (%) | 73.3% | 28.2% | 14.5% | 8.5% | 6.3% | |
| P/E (x) | 34.1 | 19.7 | 15.3 | 13.4 | 12.3 | 11.6 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 3.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.1% |
| P/B (x) | 3.4 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| ROE (%) | 9.8% | 16.0% | 18.2% | 18.7% | 18.3% | 17.6% |
Source: UBS estimates, company data
Figure 3: Powertech annual and quarterly forecast summary
19.4% 21.8% 24.0% 24.8% 23.5% 24.1% 24.7% 24.9% 19.1% 17.0% 22.7% 24.4% 24.5%
13.0% 15.3% 17.7% 18.6% 17.5% 18.2% 18.9% 19.2% 12.8% 10.9% 16.3% 18.5% 19.1%
24.4% 22.2% 21.8% 21.0% 22.0% 23.0% 21.5% 21.0% 20.4% 17.9% 22.1% 21.8% 21.9%
| Quarters | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26 | 4Q26E | 1Q27E | 2Q27E | 3Q27E | 4Q27E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues (NT$ mn) | $21,314 | $23,116 | $25,334 | $26,407 | $25,273 | $27,328 | $29,339 | $30,058 |
| Sequential change (%) | -0.4% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 4.2% | -4.3% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 2.5% |
| YoY change (%) | 37.6% | 28.0% | 26.9% | 23.4% | 18.6% | 18.2% | 15.8% | 13.8% |
| Gross profit | $4,144 | $5,031 | $6,085 | $6,547 | $5,947 | $6,588 | $7,241 | $7,499 |
| -- Gross Margin (%) | 19.4% | 21.8% | 24.0% | 24.8% | 23.5% | 24.1% | 24.7% | 24.9% |
| Operating profit | $2,761 | $3,531 | $4,472 | $4,904 | $4,433 | $4,981 | $5,551 | $5,767 |
| -- Operating Margin (%) | 13.0% | 15.3% | 17.7% | 18.6% | 17.5% | 18.2% | 18.9% | 19.2% |
| Non-op | $396 | $131 | $85 | $35 | $94 | $143 | $35 | ($42) |
| Pre-tax profit (NT$ mn) | $3,157 | $3,661 | $4,557 | $4,939 | $4,527 | $5,124 | $5,586 | $5,726 |
| Tax | $770 | $811 | $992 | $1,037 | $996 | $1,179 | $1,201 | $1,202 |
| -- tax rate (%) | 24.4% | 22.2% | 21.8% | 21.0% | 22.0% | 23.0% | 21.5% | 21.0% |
| Net profit (NT$ mn) | $1,844 | $2,219 | $2,612 | $2,887 | $2,684 | $2,959 | $3,245 | $3,370 |
| -- QoQ Growth (%) | -1.0% | 20.3% | 17.7% | 10.5% | -7.1% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 3.9% |
| -- YoY Growth (%) | 56.9% | 131.2% | 69.9% | 54.9% | 45.5% | 33.4% | 24.2% | 16.7% |
| EPS (NT$) | $2.50 | $3.00 | $3.54 | $3.91 | $3.63 | $4.01 | $4.39 | $4.56 |
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $73,315 | $74,929 | $96,171 | $111,999 | $125,155 |
| 4.1% $13,991 19.1% | 2.2% $12,729 17.0% | 28.3% $21,807 22.7% $15,668 16.3% $647 | 16.5% $27,274 24.4% $20,732 18.5% $230 $20,963 $4,578 21.8% | 11.7% $30,696 24.5% $23,876 |
| 1.9% | ||||
| $9,382 | $8,132 | |||
| 12.8% | 10.9% | 19.1% | ||
| $1,295 | $660 | $131 | ||
| $10,677 | $8,792 | $16,314 | $24,006 | |
| $2,178 | $1,572 | $3,611 | $5,247 | |
| 20.4% | 17.9% | 22.1% | 21.9% | |
| $6,789 | $5,536 | $9,562 | $12,257 | $14,036 |
| -37.8% | 10.1% | 53.1% | 106.8% | |
| $9.08 | $7.47 | $12.94 | $16.59 | $19.00 |
Source: UBS estimates, company data
Figure 4: Powertech trading above historical PE range
Source: LSEG
Figure 5: Powertech's FINI ownership rebounding from trough
Source: TEJ
Forecast returns
| Forecast price appreciation | 10.0% |
|---|---|
| Forecast dividend yield | 1.8% |
| Forecast stock return | 11.8% |
| Market return assumption | 6.3% |
| Forecast excess return | 5.5% |
Valuation Method and Ris Statement
Powertech: We value Powertech using PE methodology.
Upside/downside risks: 1) A stronger/weaker pricing environment; 2) slower-than expected tech end demand and memory market recovery; and ) faster/slower ramp of FOPLP and CPO businesses.
Quantitative Research Review
UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. The views for this month can be found below. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS Global Research reports; and (ii) where no applicable research report was published that month, the Quantitative Research Review which can be found at https://neo.ubs.com/quantitative, or contact your UBS sales representative for access to the report or the Quantitative Research Team on ubs-quant-answers@ubs.com. A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your UBS sales representative for details and pricing or the Quantitative Research Team on the email above.
Powertech Technology
| Question | Response |
|---|---|
| 1. Is the industry structure facing the fir likely to i prove or deteriorate over the next six onths? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting worse, 3 = no change, 5 = getting better, N/A = no view) | 3 |
| 2. Is the regulatory/govern ent environ ent facing the fir likely to i prove or deteriorate over the next six onths? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting tougher 3 = no change, 5 = getting better, N/A = no view) | 3 |
| 3. Over the last 3-6 onths in broad ter s have things been i proving/no change/getting worse for this stock? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting a lot worse, 3 = not uch change, 5 = getting a lot better, N/A = no view) | 3 |
| 4. Relative to the current CONSENSUS EPS forecast, is the next co pany EPS update likely to lead to: (1 = negative surprise vs consensus, 3 = in-line with consensus, 5 = positive surprise vs consensus expectations, N/A = no view) | 3 |
| 5. What's driving the difference? | |
| 6. Relative to YOUR current earnings forecast, is there relatively greater risk at the next earnings result of:(1 = downside skew risk to earnings, 3 = equal upside or downside risk to earnings, 5 = upside skew risk to earnings, N/A = no view) | 3 |
| 7. What's driving the difference? | |
| 8. Is there an upco ing catalyst for the co pany over the next three onths? | |
| 9. Is there an actual or approxi ate date for the catalyst? | |
| 10. Is the catalyst date an actual or approxi ate date? | |
| 11. What is the catalyst? |
校正紀錄
- 2026-10-28：parse 遺漏數字，依 PDF 文字層（PyMuPDF）補回：Q326／NT$3.54／NT$25.3 bn／43%-owned Greatek／Q3 稼動率／3K substrates/month（2026E）／EPS 修正幅度 3%；首頁 Highlights 表與 Trading data 缺字數值（Revenues、EBIT、Net earnings、DPS、Net debt、ROIC、EV/EBITDA、P/E、Dividend yield、52 週區間、P/BV 等）。52 週區間 PDF 文字層即為「NT$379.00-151.00」，保留原樣。
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-10-28）
報告_UBS_力成6239_3Q26_20261027_001.png｜真資料圖（估值類，不嵌 lib）｜親眼所見：Figure 4，力成股價（面積）與 NTM P/E 折線，2006-09 至 2026-09；標示平均 P/E 11x、+1 標準差 13x、-1 標準差 8x，近年 P/E 高於 +1 標準差。報告_UBS_力成6239_3Q26_20261027_002.png｜真資料圖（籌碼類，不嵌 lib）｜親眼所見：Figure 5，力成股價與外資持股比重（FINI Holding）2008–2026；外資持股由 2020 年約 75% 降至 2026 年約 30% 後略為回升。報告_UBS_力成6239_3Q26_20261027_003.png｜真資料圖（評等歷史，不嵌 lib；md 內未嵌入此檔）｜親眼所見：UBS 目標價（階梯線）與股價 2023-08 至 2026-10，評等區間為 No Rating → Neutral → Sell → 2026-02 起 Neutral；2026 年目標價約 NT$260–280 區間。