PDF 原檔：報告_MS_舊世代記憶體_20260727_original.pdf
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| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
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102KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 4：DDR4 quarterly supply and demand summary——1Q23~4Q28e 柱狀圖，深藍 Supply (mn Gb)／米黃 Demand (mn Gb) 為左軸，淺藍折線為 Oversupply/(undersupply) ratio 右軸；1Q23 供給約 36,000 明顯高於需求，2025 後供需柱體收斂至 5,000-10,000 區間、比率折線落在 -20% 附近 |
報告_MS_舊世代記憶體_20260727_002.png |
51KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 2：NOR flash demand and supply growth rates——2012-2028 雙折線圖，深藍 Demand growth／黃色 Total wafer supply growth，需求成長於 2017、2021、2025 出現高峰（約 +10~13%），供給成長多數年份維持 0~5% |
報告_MS_舊世代記憶體_20260727_003.png |
43KB | 真資料圖（未逐張 Read） | Exhibit 3：NOR flash demand growth and supply growth by density |
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85KB | 真資料圖（未逐張 Read） | Exhibit 6：Quarterly supply breakdown (mn Gb) |
報告_MS_舊世代記憶體_20260727_006.png |
71KB | 真資料圖（未逐張 Read） | Exhibit 8：DDR4 8Gb (1Gx8) pricing chart（DRAMeXchange，資料至 2026 年 6 月） |
報告_MS_舊世代記憶體_20260727_007.png |
116KB | 真資料圖（未逐張 Read） | Exhibit 5：Quarterly oversupply/undersupply ratio vs. Nanya and Winbond pricing Q/Q change |
報告_MS_舊世代記憶體_20260727_008.png |
91KB | 真資料圖（未逐張 Read） | Exhibit 7：Quarterly demand breakdown by product (mn Gb) |
報告_MS_舊世代記憶體_20260727_009.png |
98KB | 真資料圖（未逐張 Read） | Exhibit 9：DDR5 16Gb (2Gx8) pricing chart（DRAMeXchange，資料至 2026 年 6 月） |
報告_MS_舊世代記憶體_20260727_001.png |
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原始內容
M July 27, 2026 09:00 PM GMT
Greater China Semiconductors | Asia Pacific
Old Memory: Divergent Trends in the Near Term
Recent memory cycle debate + CSP FCF concern + China memory position offload have caused a derating of old memory stocks, but we see stronger DDR4 pricing hikes and unprecedented legacy flash pricing power into 3Q. We think 1.0x 2028E BVPS offers good downside support.
Changing tide on mainstream memory: According to Trendforce ( Exhibit 1 ), 3Q26 conventional DRAM mixed pricing is expected to increase by 13-18% Q/Q. Specifically, PC DDR5 pricing is seen rising by 15-20% Q/Q, server DDR5 pricing by 13-18% Q/Q, mobile LPDDR5(X) by 8-13% Q/Q, and NAND pricing by 10-15% Q/Q. Further, for 4Q26, Trendforce estimates price hikes of 3-8% Q/Q for conventional DRAM and 0-5% Q/Q for NAND. These estimated growth rates seem lower than some investors previously expected.
Yet, recently, we've seen stronger legacy memory pricing: Similar to our prior note (link), we believe DDR4 could enjoy continued monthly pricing hikes in 3Q. Compared to our pricing expectations one month ago, we believe CSPs are willing to offer higher pricing on DDR4 and may even try to sign a 1-2 year LTA (volume only) with suppliers. As a result, we believe monthly pricing could rise by 20%+ in 3Q, suggesting the Q/Q pricing hike could be 30% at least. We also continue to expect a 50-60% Q/Q price hike for SLC/MLC NAND in 3Q, and a 30-40% Q/Q price hike for NOR flash in 3Q.
Position offload in A share likely to see some stabilization: GigaDevice issued an announcement (link) that the company's niche memory products may see substantial price declines in the future. We see this warning as a potential longer term trend, rather than a near-term possibility, as we continue to see a structural supply gap across DDR4, SLC/MLC NAND, and NOR flash, supporting continued strong price hikes.
What is the downside support? GigaDevice (603986.SS): as a design house, it is hard to gauge the P/E floor, but the stock has already corrected 45.6% from its peak of Rmb840 as of Jun 29, providing some valuation support. Macronix/Nanya/ Winbond trade at 1.5x/1.2x/1.2x 2028E BVPS, respectively; 1.0x historically has been a strong downside support level for greater China IDM companies.
Idea
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Daniel Yen, CFA Equity Analyst Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2863 |
|---|---|
| Charlie Chan Equity Analyst Charlie.Chan@morganstanley.com Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ | +886 2 2730-1725 |
| Daisy Dai, CFA Equity Analyst Daisy.Dai@morganstanley.com | +852 2848-7310 |
| Tiffany Yeh Equity Analyst Tiffany.Yeh@morganstanley.com | +886 2 7712-3032 |
| Ethan Jia Research Associate Ethan.Jia@morganstanley.com | +852 3963-2287 |
Greater China Technology Semiconductors
Asia Pacific
Industry View
Attractive
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Growth rate
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
density
Growth rate
20%
M
2012 2013
2014 2015 2016 2017|
2018
2019 2020
2021 2022 2023 2024
2025
2026
2027
Total water sudely growth
Key Charts and Exhibits
Exhibit 1: Latest pricing forecast for DRAM and NAND
| 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E - Old | 3Q26E - New | 4Q26E - Old | 4Q26E - New | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PC DRAM | DDR4: up 120-125% DDR5: up 110-115% Blended ASP: up 110-115% | DDR4: up 35-40% DDR5: up 45-50% Blended ASP: up 45-50% | up 3-8% | DDR4: up 15-20% DDR5: up 15-20% Blended ASP: up 15-20% | up 0-5% | up 3-8% |
| Server DRAM | DDR4: up 95-100% DDR5: up 93-98% Blended ASP: up 93-98% | DDR4: up 50-55% DDR5: up 53-58% Blended ASP: up 53-58% | up 10-15% | DDR4: up 13-18% DDR5: up 13-18% Blended ASP: up 13-18% | up 3-8% | up 3-8% |
| Mobile DRAM | LPDDR4X: up 58-63% LPDDR5(x): up 58-63% | LPDDR4X: up 73-78% LPDDR5(x): up 80-85% | up 3-8% | LPDDR4X: up 8-13% LPDDR5(x): up 8-13% | up 0-5% | up 0-5% |
| Graphics DRAM | GDDR6: up 95-100% GDDR7: up 95-100% | GDDR6: up 30-35% GDDR7: up 40-45% | GDDR6: up 3-8% GDDR7: up 10-15% | GDDR6: up 15-20% GDDR7: up 15-20% | GDDR6: up 0-5% GDDR7: up 3-8% | GDDR6: up 0-5% GDDR7: up 3-8% |
| Consumer DRAM | DDR3: up 75-80% DDR4: up 75-80% | DDR3: up 55-60% DDR4: up 55-60% | up 10-15% | DDR3: up 35-40% DDR4: up 28-33% | up 3-8% | up 3-8% |
| Total DRAM | Conventional DRAM: up 93- 98% HBM Blended: up 83-88% | Conventional DRAM: up 58- 63% HBM Blended: 53-58% | Conventional DRAM: up 8-13% | Conventional DRAM: up 13- 18% HBM Blended: 8-13% | Conventional DRAM: up 3-8% | Conventional DRAM: up 3-8% |
| 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E - Old | 3Q26E - New | 4Q26E - Old | 4Q26E - New | |
| eMMC UFS | up 95-100% | up 75-80% | up 5-10% | up 5-10% | mostly flat | mostly flat |
| Enterprise SSD | up 75-80% | up 48-53% | up 13-18% | up 18-23% | up 3-8% | up 3-8% |
| Client SSD | up 105-110% | up 70-75% | up 5-10% | up 13-18% | mostly flat | mostly flat |
| 3D NAND Wafers (TLC & QLC) | up 75-80% | up 28-33% | up 5-10% | up 5-10% | mostly flat | mostly flat |
| Total NAND Flash | up 85-90% | up 55-60% | up 8-13% | up 10-15% | up 0- 5% | up 0- 5% |
Source: Trendforce, Morgan Stanley Research estimates
Exhibit 2: NOR flash demand and supply growth rates
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
2028
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Exhibit 3: NOR flash demand growth and supply growth by density
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research
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30
20,000
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25,000
25,000
20,000
20%
25
20,000
15,000
0%
10,000
15,000
15,000
20
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15
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10,000
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DDR4 8Gb - 1Gx8 2666Mbps
29.08
40%
30%
M
20,00
Exhibit 4: DDR4 quarterly supply and demand summary
-30%
Source: Company data, IDC, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates
Exhibit 6: Quarterly supply breakdown (mn Gb)
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates
Exhibit 8: DDR4 8Gb (1Gx8) pricing chart
Source: DRAMeXchange, Morgan Stanley Research. Data as of Jun 2026.
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45.00
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Exhibit 5: Quarterly oversupply/undersupply ratio vs. Nanya and Winbond pricing Q/Q change
Mar-23
Source: Company data, IDC, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates
Exhibit 7: Quarterly demand breakdown by product (mn Gb)
Source: IDC, Morgan Stanley Research (e) estimates
Exhibit 9: DDR5 16Gb (2Gx8) pricing chart
Source: DRAMeXchange, Morgan Stanley Research. Data as of Jun 2026.
Idea
M
Disclosure Section
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