圖片清單（已驗證 2026-10-30）
ingest 時建立的「眼見為憑」圖片索引，是 lib/ 嵌圖的唯一真相來源；建立步驟見
ingest_steps.mdStep 2.5。
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
報告_MS_穩懋3105_20261029_001.png |
37KB | 真資料圖（產業） | Exhibit 2：SpaceX 衛星數量預估堆疊長條（v0.9/1、v1.5、v2.0 Mini、v3.0 與未來寬頻、DTC Gen 1、DTC Gen 2），2026e 10,970 顆、2028e 13,811 顆、2030e 17,500 顆、2040e 71,000 顆 |
報告_MS_穩懋3105_20261029_002.png |
97KB | 真資料圖（技術） | Exhibit 5：InP 基 GmAPD 光電二極體陣列剖面示意，含 N 型 InP 基板、InGaAs(P) 吸收層、InP 倍增層、擴散區、銦凸塊與讀出電路（ROIC），100µm pitch（來源 Springer Nature） |
報告_MS_穩懋3105_20261029_003.png |
83KB | 真資料圖（營收結構） | Exhibit 7：3Q26 營收組成圓餅圖，Cellular 25-30%、Infra. 35-40%、Wi-Fi 15-20%、Optical 10-15%、Others 3% |
報告_MS_穩懋3105_20261029_004.png |
90KB | 真資料圖（財務） | Exhibit 8：4Q24-3Q26 毛利率、營業利益率、淨利率季趨勢折線，3Q26 毛利率約 37%、營益率約 24%、淨利率約 31% |
報告_MS_穩懋3105_20261029_005.png |
67KB | 真資料圖（估值） | Exhibit 12：穩懋 ROE（左軸）與 PB（右軸）2009-10 至 2026-10 走勢，含近 15 年平均 PB 3.6x 線，近期 PB 約 4-6x |
報告_MS_穩懋3105_20261029_006.png |
51KB | 真資料圖（估值） | Risk Reward 圖：共識目標價分布 NT$142-725（MS PT 725 標於上端），目前股價 NT$594，bull 1,050（+76.77%）、base 700（+17.85%）、bear 350（-41.08%）；註：圖上標示 MS PT 725 與內文 base NT$700 不一致，照圖記錄 |
報告_MS_穩懋3105_20261029_007.png |
12KB | 文字卡 | 共識評等分布：Overweight 63%、Equal-weight 19%、Underweight 19% |
報告_MS_穩懋3105_20261029_008.png |
16KB | 文字卡 | 全球營收曝險圓環：Mainland China 60-70%、North America 20-30%，其餘區域各 0-10% |
報告_MS_穩懋3105_20261029_009.png |
29KB | 真資料圖（預估對照） | MS 預估對共識（FY2026e）：營收 21,792（區間 17,167-21,900，均值 20,914）；EBITDA 7,283；淨利 4,949（均值 3,186）；EPS 11.64（均值 7.17） |
報告_MS_穩懋3105_20261029_010.png |
54KB | 文字卡（評等歷史） | MS 對穩懋評等與目標價歷史 2023-10 至 2026，2026-10 評等為 E/A、目標價 600（圖停在升評前） |
報告_MS_穩懋3105_20261029
PDF 原檔：報告_MS_穩懋3105_20261029_original.pdf
原始內容
M Idea October 29, 2026 03:05 PM GMT
WIN Semiconductors Corp | Asia Pacific
Strong margin beat from space communications parts, upgrade to OW
| What's Changed | From | To |
|---|---|---|
| WIN Semiconductors Rating | Equal-weight | Overweight |
| Price Target | NT$600.00 | NT$700.00 |
AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction
Strengthens our thesis Impact to our the i
↑
↑
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Re earch
WIN Semi is showing strong margin improvement in optical and infrastructure. Upgrade to OW and raise PT to NT 700.
Further upside surprise: In our recent CPO report, we raised WIN Semi's revenue forecasts to reflect stronger demand for satellite communications RF, driven b major customer SpaceX (SPCX; covered b Adam Jonas). However, we underestimated the favorable pricing and margin, as evidenced b the 28 Oct 3Q26 results. Reflecting the much higher gross margin, we raise our 2026, 2027 and 2028 EPS b 35%, 28% and 17%, respectivel , and raise our price target 17% to NT$700 to capture the long-term upside from both new businesses - space communications and AI optical networking laser.
3Q26 margin beat: Core margin reached 40.7% in 3Q26, well above our original forecast of 29%. The compan indicated space communications revenue alread represents 40% of its infrastructure business, accounting for 35-40% of total revenue. This implies the space-related revenue is tracking at c.15% of total revenue in 3Q. Despite a relativel small portion of revenue, we estimate the business could lift 3Q26 margin b 5% (half of 3Q26 increase), impl ing the space communications margin could be >60%, well above our and Street expectations. V3 satellite development will be a ke growth driver into 2027. See Exhibit 1 for our anal sis.
4Q26 revenue guidance looks solid: Smartphone and WiFi revenue remain stable despite weak China smartphone demand: Win Semi now has higher exposure to Apple iPhone through high-band PA (Broadcom) and WiFi (Murata). As such, revenue can still grow single digit QoQ in 4Q26, despite recent weakness in China smartphone demand. Please see Exhibit 3 and Exhibit 4 for our earnings review.
pgrade to OW: The stock trades at 25x our new 2028 EPS. Given the significant revenue contribution from space communications and AI lasers, we think our implied target multiple of 29x 2028 EPS should be justified. Win Semi historicall traded at 40x PE during the smartphone 3D sensing product c cle.
Meaningful upside
Financial re ult ver u con en u Meaningful revision higher Direction of next 12-month con en u EPS
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Charlie Chan Equity Analyst C arlie.C an@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-1725 |
|---|---|
| Daniel Yen, CFA Equity Analyst Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2863 |
| Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Dais Dai, CFA Equity Analyst Daisy.Dai@morganstanley.com | +852 2848-7310 |
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Lucas Wang Equity Analyst Lucas.Wang@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2875 |
Morgan Stanley appreciates your support in the 2027 Extel Asia Research Survey. Voting opens 10 Novem er 2026.
WIN Semiconductors Corp(310 .TWO, 310 TT)
Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Overweight |
|---|---|
| ndustry View | Attractive |
| Price target | NT$700.00 |
| Up/down ide to price target (%) | 18 |
| Shr price, clo e (Oct 29, 2026) | NT$594.00 |
| 52-Week Range | NT$637.00-97.50 |
| Sh out, dil, curr (mn) | 424 |
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | NT$251,746 |
| EV, curr (mn) | NT$248,912 |
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | NT$9,323 |
| Fiscal Year nding | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e | 12/28e |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (NT$)** | 3.98 | 11.64 | 14.48 | 23.79 |
| Prior EPS (NT$)** | - | 8.63 | 11.29 | 20.33 |
| Revenue, net (NT$ mn) | 16,639 | 21,792 | 28,255 | 40,029 |
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 4,711 | 7,283 | 11,309 | 15,964 |
| ModelWare net inc (NT | 1,694 | 4,949 | 6,157 | 10,119 |
| $ mn) | ||||
| P/E | 45.9 | 51.0 | 41.0 | 25.0 |
| P/BV | 1.9 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 4.9 |
| ROE (%) | 4.4 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 21.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.9 | 33.7 | 21.7 | 15.3 |
| Div yld (%) | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 2.4 |
| FCF yld ratio (%)** | 10.4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2.8 |
Unle otherwi e noted, all metric are ba ed on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework
- ** = Ba ed on con en u methodology
- e = Morgan Stanley Re earch e timate
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
M Idea
Surprising Margin Expansion from Optical/Space Businesses
WIN Semi could benefit from PD growth and potential LD outsourcing by late 0 7
In our previous WIN Semi report, we argued that Lumentum (LITE.O, covered b Meta Marshall) was unlikel to outsource CW lasers or EML production to WIN Semi, a ke pillar of our earlier UW rating. However, our recent checks with WIN Semi management suggest that WIN Semi and its major customer, we assume it's Broadcom (AVGO, covered b Joseph Moore), have secured sufficient InP substrate suppl for WIN Semi's PD production, potentiall supporting substantial growth for the PD (photo diode) business in 2H26. We estimate PD could account for >10% of WIN Semi's total revenue. Our recent checks from the suppl chain also suggest that WIN Semi's largest PD customer could outsource LD (laser diode) production to WIN Semi.
We also see the potential for even stronger revenue growth from WIN Semi's aerospace business into 2027, especiall from the ground station and satellite business. With SpaceX's launch of Starship and Starlink V3 satellite, we expect WIN Semi's content value per satellite to increase significantl from Starlink v2 to v3, with potential upside from future DTD (direct to device) satellites. The increase in content value comes not onl from higher RF chips volumes, but also from the migration from GaAs to GaN. Based on our industr checks, the ASP for 4-inch GaN could be US$9k, compared with ~US$2.5-3k for 6inch GaAs. We therefore upgrade our rating from EW to OW with the strong gross margin performance, which we believe to be >60%.
Where we could be wrong with our OW call: We think the largest near-term swing factor for WIN Semi is the aerospace business, which is relativel difficult to track given the inherent risk of dela s or failures in satellite launches. However, on September 28, 2026, SpaceX successfull launched the Starship with Starlink V3 satellite. If SpaceX decides to speed up the satellite constellation, there also could be upside to our forecasts.
All of our satellite launch numbers are based on Adam Jonas's SpaceX forecasts. Please see his latest report: SpaceX: SpaceX/Tesla and SI's Next Act (23 Oct 2026)
M Idea
Exhibit 1: WIN Semi: Aerospace Revenue Projection
| 2025 | 2026e | 2027e | 2028e | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIN Semi Total Revenue (MSe, NT$mn) | 16,639 | 21,792 | 28,255 | 40,029 |
| Infra to total revenue | 33% | 36% | 47% | 44% |
| Aerospace to Infra | 30% | 35% | 38% | 40% |
| Aerospace to total revenue | 10% | 13% | 18% | 17% |
| Aerospace Revenue (MSe, NT$mn) | 1,625 | 2,748 | 5,074 | 6,971 |
| Ground station | 650 | 975 | 1,462 | 2,194 |
| Satellite | 531 | 1,240 | 2,973 | 4,011 |
| Others | 444 | 532 | 639 | 766 |
| New Launched Satellite (units) | ||||
| v0.9/1 | - | - | - | - |
| v1.5 | - | - | - | - |
| v2.0 Mini | 2,912 | 2,662 | 396 | - |
| v3.0 (and Future Broadband Generations) | - | 78 | 1,500 | 1,722 |
| Mobile Gen 1 (DTD) | 286 | - | - | - |
| Mobile Gen 2 (and Future Generations) | - | - | 480 | 520 |
| Content Value to WIN Semi (per satellite; US$k) | ||||
| v0.9/1 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| v1.5 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| v2.0 Mini | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| v3.0 (and Future Broadband Generations) | 35 | 35 | 35 | 40 |
| Mobile Gen 1 (DTD) | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Mobile Gen 2 (and Future Generations) | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
| Total Revenue to WIN Semi (per satellite; NT$mn) | ||||
| v0.9/1 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| v1.5 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| v2.0 Mini | 444 | 349 | 43 | - |
| v3.0 (and Future Broadband Generations) | 17 | 556 | 1,780 | 2,313 |
| Mobile Gen 1 (DTD) | 71 | - | - | - |
| Mobile Gen 2 (and Future Generations) | - | 223 | 763 | 1,029 |
| Total Revenue to WIN Semi (from SpaceX satellite) | 531 | 1,128 | 2,585 | 3,342 |
| Other Revenue to WIN Semi (from non-SpaceX satellite) | 113 | 388 | 668 |
Source: Morgan Stanley Researc estimates M Idea Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Researc . e = Morgan Stanley Researc estimates
Exhibit 2: Projection of SpaceX's Numbers of Satellite
3Q 6 earnings and 4Q 6 guidance review - margin and earnings beat on strong optical and aerospace demand
WIN Semi delivered a solid 3Q26 performance, with margins and earnings exceeding expectations, supported b robust demand across its optical and aerospace businesses. The gross margin beat MSe and consensus b 7-8ppts. Strength in optical applications, driven b continued investment in AI-related optical connectivit and high-speed data transmission, alongside resilient aerospace demand, supported a favorable product mix and improved manufacturing efficienc .
The higher contribution from these relativel high-value-added segments lifted gross margins above expectations, driving positive operating leverage and stronger-thananticipated earnings. Looking ahead, we expect sustained momentum in optical communications and aerospace applications to remain ke drivers of WIN Semi's profitabilit .
Exhibit 3: WIN Semi 3Q26 Earnings Review
| (NT$ mn) | 3Q26 - Actual | 3Q26 - Q/Q | 3Q26 - Y/Y | 3Q26 - MS Est. | 3Q26 - Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5,859 | 11.4% | 30.6% | 5,882 | 5,889 |
| GM (%) | 37.4% | 916bps | 1,054bps | 29.0% | 30.8% |
| Opex | (775) | 4.3% | -5.4% | (816) | (823) |
| OPM (%) | 24.2% | 1,006bps | 1,558bps | 15.1% | 16.9% |
| EPS (NT$) | 4.55 | 98.0% | 80.8% | 2.62 | 2.53 |
Source: MS estimates are t e prior estimates at t e time of earnings release. Company Data, Visible Alp a, Morgan Stanley Researc estimates M Idea
Exhibit 4: WIN Semi 4Q26 Guidance Review
| (NT$ mn) | 4Q26 - Guidance | 4Q26 - MS Est. | 4Q26 - Q/Q | 4Q26 - Y/Y | 4Q26 - Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Up low-single Q/Q | 5,770 | -1.5% | 20.4% | 5,859 |
| GM (%) | High-30s % | 28.4% | -898bps | -339bps | 30.9% |
| Opex | (839) | 8.2% | -2.2% | (855) | |
| OPM (%) | 13.9% | -1,029bps | -3bps | 16.3% | |
| EPS (NT$) | 2.46 | -45.9% | 1.8% | 2.53 |
Note: MS estimates are t e prior estimates at t e time of guidance. Source: Company Data, Visible Alp a, Morgan Stanley Researc estimates
Exhibit 5: InP-based Optical Components
Source: Springer Nature
Exhibit 6: Simplified LD/PD Die Production Process
Source: Morgan Stanley Researc ; Note: Grating is for PD production only
Exhibit 7: WIN Semi 3Q26 Revenue Breakdown
Source: Company Data
Exhibit 8: WIN Semi Quarterly Margin Trend
Source: Company Data
M Idea
WIN Semi: Earnings Estimates Revisions and Quarterly Financials
We raise our 2026-28 EPS estimates by 17-35%: We raise our 2026-28 margin forecasts due to surprisingl strong margin performance from the optical and aerospace businesses, and we expect the revenue exposure from these segments to continue growing. Besides, the 3Q26 non-op investment gain is also larger than we expected, leading to a larger 2026 earnings revision.
Exhibit 9: WIN Semi: Estimates Revisions
| (NT$ mn) | New 2026e | Old 2026e | Diff.% | New 2027e | Old 2027e | Diff.% | New 2028e | Old 2028e | Diff.% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | 21,792 | 21,499 | 1% | 28,255 | 28,255 | 0% | 40,029 | 40,029 | 0% |
| Gross profit | 7,166 | 6,040 | 19% | 11,055 | 9,359 | 18% | 16,635 | 14,526 | 15% |
| Operating profit | 4,064 | 2,862 | 42% | 7,122 | 5,427 | 31% | 12,075 | 10,235 | 18% |
| Pretax income | 5,530 | 4,045 | 37% | 6,947 | 5,251 | 32% | 11,898 | 10,059 | 18% |
| Net income | 4,949 | 3,672 | 34.8% | 6,157 | 4,801 | 28% | 10,119 | 8,647 | 17% |
| EPS for consensus | 11.64 | 8.63 | 34.8% | 14.48 | 11.29 | 28% | 23.79 | 20.33 | 17% |
| Margins | |||||||||
| Gross margin | 32.9% | 28.1% | 39.1% | 33.1% | 41.6% | 36.3% | |||
| Operating margin | 18.6% | 13.3% | 25.2% | 19.2% | 30.2% | 25.6% | |||
| Pretax margin | 25.4% | 18.8% | 24.6% | 18.6% | 29.7% | 25.1% | |||
| Net margin | 22.7% | 17.1% | 21.8% | 17.0% | 25.3% | 21.6% |
Source: Morgan Stanley Researc estimates
Exhibit 10: WIN Semi: Quarterly Financials
| (NT$ mn) | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26e | 4Q26e | 2024 | 2025 | 2026e | 2027e | 2028e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenues | 3,576 | 3,780 | 4,488 | 4,794 | 4,590 | 5,257 | 5,859 | 6,086 | 17,458 | 16,639 | 21,792 | 28,255 | 40,029 |
| Sequential Change | -3.5% | 5.7% | 18.7% | 6.8% | -4.3% | 14.5% | 11.4% | 3.9% | |||||
| Change vs Year Ago | -19.5% | -23.8% | 3.2% | 29.4% | 28.4% | 39.1% | 30.6% | 26.9% | 10.2% | -4.7% | 31.0% | 29.7% | 41.7% |
| Cost of Sales | (2,977) | (3,083) | (3,283) | (3,270) | (3,381) | (3,773) | (3,668) | (3,804) | (13,416) | (12,612) | (14,626) | (17,200) | (23,393) |
| Gross Profit | 598 | 698 | 1,205 | 1,525 | 1,209 | 1,485 | 2,191 | 2,282 | 4,042 | 4,026 | 7,166 | 11,055 | 16,635 |
| Gross Margin | 16.7% | 18.5% | 26.9% | 31.8% | 26.3% | 28.2% | 37.4% | 37.5% | 23.2% | 24.2% | 32.9% | 39.1% | 41.6% |
| Total Opex | (815) | (817) | (820) | (858) | (780) | (743) | (775) | (805) | (3,280) | (3,309) | (3,103) | (3,933) | (4,561) |
| Percent of Revenues | 22.8% | 21.6% | 18.3% | 17.9% | 17.0% | 14.1% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 18.8% | 19.9% | 14.2% | 13.9% | 11.4% |
| R&D | (428) | (392) | (377) | (404) | (357) | (265) | (275) | (280) | (1,691) | (1,600) | (1,176) | (1,575) | (2,010) |
| Percent of Revenues | 12.0% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.0% |
| Sales and Marketing | (104) | (110) | (107) | (128) | (110) | (111) | (124) | (129) | (442) | (449) | (474) | (848) | (1,001) |
| Percent of Revenues | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% |
| General and Admin | (283) | (315) | (336) | (325) | (313) | (367) | (376) | (396) | (1,147) | (1,259) | (1,453) | (1,510) | (1,550) |
| Percent of Revenues | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 3.9% |
| Operating Income | (217) | (119) | 386 | 667 | 429 | 742 | 1,416 | 1,477 | 762 | 717 | 4,064 | 7,122 | 12,075 |
| Percent of Revenues | -6.1% | -3.1% | 8.6% | 13.9% | 9.3% | 14.1% | 24.2% | 24.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 18.6% | 25.2% | 30.2% |
| Total Non-operating Income(Loss) | 156 | (432) | 511 | 437 | 101 | 447 | 698 | 221 | (429) | 672 | 1,466 | (175) | (176) |
| Profit Before Taxes | (61) | (551) | 897 | 1,104 | 530 | 1,188 | 2,114 | 1,698 | 333 | 1,389 | 5,530 | 6,947 | 11,898 |
| Percent of Revenues | -1.7% | -14.6% | 20.0% | 23.0% | 11.5% | 22.6% | 36.1% | 27.9% | 1.9% | 8.4% | 25.4% | 24.6% | 29.7% |
| Change vs Year Ago | -119.7% | -220.9% | 263.9% | -262.9% | -970.3% | -315.7% | 135.7% | 53.8% | |||||
| Taxes | (2) | 61 | (213) | (142) | (83) | (284) | (288) | (340) | 7 | (297) | (994) | (1,389) | (2,380) |
| Tax Rate | -4.0% | 11.0% | 23.8% | 12.9% | 15.7% | 23.9% | 13.6% | 20.0% | -2.1% | 21.4% | 18.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Net Income, Cont Ops | (63) | (490) | 684 | 962 | 446 | 905 | 1,826 | 1,358 | 340 | 1,092 | 4,536 | 5,557 | 9,519 |
| Percent of Revenues | -1.8% | -13.0% | 15.2% | 20.1% | 9.7% | 17.2% | 31.2% | 22.3% | 1.9% | 6.6% | 20.8% | 19.7% | 23.8% |
| Minority Interest | 79 | 69 | 387 | 67 | 87 | 72 | 104 | 150 | 428 | 601 | 413 | 600 | 600 |
| Reported Income (TW GAAP) | 16 | (421) | 1,070 | 1,029 | 533 | 977 | 1,930 | 1,508 | 768 | 1,694 | 4,949 | 6,157 | 10,119 |
| Percent of Revenues | 0.4% | -11.1% | 23.8% | 21.5% | 11.6% | 18.6% | 32.9% | 24.8% | 4.4% | 10.2% | 22.7% | 21.8% | 25.3% |
| Change vs Year Ago | -96.2% | -186.7% | 368.7% | -392.1% | 3312.4% | -332.1% | 80.3% | 46.6% | -1064.3% | 120.5% | 192.2% | 24.4% | 64.3% |
| Reported Diluted EPS (NT$, TW GAAP) | 0.04 | (0.99) | 2.52 | 2.42 | 1.25 | 2.30 | 4.54 | 3.55 | 1.81 | 3.98 | 11.64 | 14.48 | 23.79 |
| (0.99) | 2.52 | 1.26 | 14.52 | 23.87 | |||||||||
| Reported Basic EPS (NT$, GAAP) | 0.04 | 2.43 | 2.30 | 4.55 | 3.56 | 1.81 | 4.00 | 11.67 |
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Researc (e) estimates
M Idea
WIN Semi: Valuation Methodology
Our price target (base-case value) increases from NT$600 to NT$700: This also factors in our EPS forecast changes for 2025 to 2028.
We continue to derive our price target from a residual income model as we believe it best presents the value of the compan . All of our other ke assumptions are unchanged, including a cost of equit of 8.0% (beta of 1.0, equit risk premium of 6% and risk-free rate of 2%), intermediate growth rate assumption of 15% and terminal growth rate of 4.0%.
Our bull-case value increases from NT$900 to NT$1050 and our bear-case value from NT $300 to NT$350, impl ing 44x and 14x 2028e EPS, respectivel .
Exhibit 11: WIN Semi: Residual Income Model
| (NT$ mn) | 2026e | 2027e | 2028e | 2029e | 2030e | 2031e | 2032e | 2033e | 2034e | 2035e | 2036e | 2037e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Equity | 46,415 | 48,278 | 51,726 | 55,508 | 59,857 | 64,858 | 70,610 | 76,592 | 82,813 | 89,283 | 96,011 | 103,009 |
| Net Profit | 4,949 | 6,157 | 10,119 | 11,636 | 13,382 | 15,389 | 17,698 | 18,406 | 19,142 | 19,907 | 20,704 | 21,532 |
| ROAE | 11.2% | 13.0% | 20.2% | 21.7% | 23.2% | 24.7% | 26.1% | 25.0% | 24.0% | 23.1% | 22.3% | 21.6% |
| Residual Income | 1,342 | 2,323 | 5,908 | 7,088 | 8,437 | 9,984 | 11,758 | 12,009 | 12,267 | 15,846 | 16,381 | 16,934 |
| Spread | 3.2% | 5.0% | 12.2% | 13.7% | 15.2% | 16.7% | 18.1% | 17.0% | 16.0% | 15.1% | 14.3% | 13.6% |
| Ending Equity Capital | 46,415 | |||||||||||
| PV of Forecast Period | 62,397 | |||||||||||
| PV of Continuing Value | 188,834 | |||||||||||
| Equity Value | 297,646 | |||||||||||
| No. of Shares | 425 | |||||||||||
| Projected Price (NT$) | 700 |
Source: Morgan Stanley Researc estimates.
Exhibit 12: WIN Semi's One-year Forward P/B Band
Source: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Researc estimates
M Idea
Risk Reward - WIN Semiconductors Corp (3105.TWO) Risk Reward - WIN Semiconductors Corp (3105.TWO)
Strong margin upside from optical and aerospace businesses; OW
NT$700.00 PRICE TARGET
Base-case, residual income model. Key assumptions: cost of equity of 8.0% (beta of 1.0), intermediate growth rate of 15.0%, and terminal growth rate of 4.0%.
NT$429.20
Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research
BULL CASE
BASE CASE
OVERWEIGHT THESIS
- ▪Relatively strong iPhone demand (vs. Android) appears likely in the near term, but smartphone growth is mature compared to AI demand.
- ▪We expect to see more GaAs wafer consumption as we migrate to the WiFi 7 era, as WiFi 7 has three bands (2.4 GHz, 5 GHz and 6 GHz) vs. WiFi 6 at just two (2.4 GHz, 5 GHz).
- ▪GaN penetration in satellite business could lift the wafer ASP.
- ▪We think optical transceivers and robotics may become future drivers, as WIN Semi has the technology to enable products like EML, CW-DFB and DML.
- ▪We are OW given the strong margin improvement from the new business.
Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research
Risk Reward Themes
New Data Era:
Pricing Power:
Positive
Positive
Secular Growth:
Positive
View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here
BEAR CASE
44x 2028e EPS
3D sensing, WiFi 7 and 5G take-off: AR adoption rate beats expectations in 2027 and beyond. Smartphone demand appears to be stronger than expected, while 5G and WiFi 7 implementation starts at a healthy speed. Power amplifier (PA) customers such as Murata and Broadcom continue to work with WIN Semi, while PA customer Qualcomm's RF demand beats expectations. Win Semi also achieves significant market share in optical transceiver and 3D sensing production.
29x 2028e EPS
Orders from Chinese smartphone customers and iPhone start to pick up: WiFi 7 demand grows as forecast in 2026 and beyond. Key communications PA customers continue to work with WIN Semi, while Chinese smartphone demand starts to show recovery. AI related products such as optical transceivers and 3D sensing might also drive up its utilization rate. We expect UTR to remain at 70-90% in 2027.
15x 2028e EPS
3D sensing, 5G and WiFi 7 adoption freeze: 3D sensing adoption rate declines without killer applications in 2027. EM smartphone demand does not recover, while 5G and WiFi 7 commercialization is further delayed. Major communications PA customers find alternative partners with similar GaAs technologies, while PA customer Qualcomm's RF demand misses our base case expectations significantly.
NT$350.00
NT$1,050.00
NT$700.00
M Idea
Risk Reward - WIN Semiconductors Corp (3105.TWO)
KEY EARNINGS INPUTS
| Drivers - Wafer shipments (6" equiv) (NT$, mn) | Dec 2025 - 258 | Dec 2026eDec 2027eDec 2028e - 359 | Dec 2026eDec 2027eDec 2028e - 417 | Dec 2026eDec 2027eDec 2028e - 532 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blended wafer ASP (US$) (NT$, mn) | 1,806 | 1,810 | 1,997 | 2,242 |
| Utilization rate (%) (%) | 50.0 | 68.8 | 68.8 | 78.1 |
INVESTMENT DRIVERS
- 3D sensing adoption in smartphones or faster deployment for 5G
- Share gains for key fabless customers at a more significant speed
- Chinese smartphone demand
GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE
Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate View explanation of regional hierarchies here
MS ALPHA MODELS
4/5
MOST
3 Month
Horizon
Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored Quintile
RISKS TO PT/RATING
RISKS TO UPSIDE
- WIN Semi being able to raise utilization rate.
- Stronger-than-expected gross margin improvement
- More orders for Apple vs. Android camp
- LD (laser diode) qualification
RISKS TO DOWNSIDE
- No adoption of 3D sensing and AR applications without killer applications
- Slowdown in outsourcing trend among integrated device manufacturers
- Build-up of component inventories amid poor smartphone demand
OWNERSHIP POSITIONING
Inst. Owners, % Active
59.9%
Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research
MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS
Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research M Idea
WIN Semi: Financial Summary
Exhibit 13: WIN Semi: Financial summary
Income Statement, 2024-2028e, Year End Dec
10.2% -4.7% 31.0% 29.7% 41.7% Cash & Equivalent
16.5% -0.4% 78.0% 54.3% 50.5% LT Investment
23.2% 24.2% 32.9% 39.1% 41.6% Total Fixed Assets
-1465.3% -5.9% 466.6% 75.3% 69.5% Other Payable
4.4% 4.3% 18.6% 25.2% 30.2% Total Current Liab.
-149.0% 317.4% 298.0% 25.6% 71.3% Capital Reserve
1.9% 8.4% 25.4% 24.6% 29.7% Retained earnings
2024
2025
2026e
2027e
2028e
| (NT$ mn) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026e | 2027e | 2028e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turnover | 17,458 | 16,639 | 21,792 | 28,255 | 40,029 |
| YoY Growth | 10.2% | -4.7% | 31.0% | 29.7% | 41.7% |
| Less: COGS | (13,416) | (12,612) | (14,626) | (17,200) | (23,393) |
| Variable costs | (9,690) | (9,509) | (11,909) | (13,562) | (20,014) |
| Depreciation & amort | (3,725) | (3,103) | (2,717) | (3,638) | (3,379) |
| Gross profit | 4,042 | 4,026 | 7,166 | 11,055 | 16,635 |
| YoY Growth | 16.5% | -0.4% | 78.0% | 54.3% | 50.5% |
| % margin | 23.2% | 24.2% | 32.9% | 39.1% | 41.6% |
| Operating Expenses: | (3,280) | (3,309) | (3,103) | (3,933) | (4,561) |
| R&D | (1,691) | (1,600) | (1,176) | (1,575) | (2,010) |
| Sales and Marketing | (442) | (449) | (474) | (848) | (1,001) |
| General and Admin | (1,147) | (1,259) | (1,453) | (1,510) | (1,550) |
| Operating Profit | 762 | 717 | 4,064 | 7,122 | 12,075 |
| YoY Growth | -1465.3% | -5.9% | 466.6% | 75.3% | 69.5% |
| % margin | 4.4% | 4.3% | 18.6% | 25.2% | 30.2% |
| Total Non-op | (429) | 672 | 1,466 | (175) | (176) |
| Pretax Profit | 333 | 1,389 | 5,530 | 6,947 | 11,898 |
| YoY Growth | -149.0% | 317.4% | 298.0% | 25.6% | 71.3% |
| % margin | 1.9% | 8.4% | 25.4% | 24.6% | 29.7% |
| Tax | 7 | (297) | (994) | (1,389) | (2,380) |
| Reported Net Income | 768 | 1,694 | 4,949 | 6,157 | 10,119 |
| ModelWare EPS (NT$) | 1.81 | 3.98 | 11.64 | 14.48 | 23.79 |
Key Ratios
Return (%)
ROAA
1.1% 2.5% 7.4% 8.9% 14.3% Others
ROAE
2.1% 4.0% 10.5% 12.6% 20.2% Cash Flow-Operating
OP. ATO
30.3% 33.1% 40.6% 50.5% 66.0%
Gearing (x)
Net Debt/ Equity
0.3x
0.1x
0.0x
(0.0x)
(0.0x)
Current Ratio
1.6x
2.5x
1.8x
1.9x
2.1x
Quick Ratio
0.9x
1.5x
1.1x
1.1x
1.2x
Operating Cycle
AR/NR Turnover (days)
46
53
46
40
32
Inventory Turnover (days)
173
192
176
165
135
AP Turnover (days)
56
63
62
58
48
Cash Conversion (days)
164
182
160
147
120
e = Morgan Stanley Research Estimates Source: Company Data, Morgan Stanley Research
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Researc . E = Morgan Stanley Researc estimates.
| Balance sheet (NT$ mn) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026e | 2027e | 2028e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assets | |||||
| Cash & Equivalent | 5,419 | 7,067 | 8,556 | 9,125 | 9,568 |
| MarketableSecurity | 275 | 324 | 295 | 295 | 295 |
| A/R & N/R | 1,226 | 1,597 | 2,333 | 2,997 | 4,139 |
| Inventories | 4,992 | 4,979 | 6,088 | 7,536 | 10,062 |
| Other Current Ass. | 299 | 435 | 389 | 389 | 389 |
| Total current assets | 12,455 | 14,557 | 17,967 | 20,647 | 24,760 |
| LT Investment | 6,520 | 8,872 | 10,596 | 10,596 | 10,596 |
| Total Fixed Assets | 28,265 | 19,672 | 18,688 | 18,381 | 18,606 |
| Total Other Assets | 17,018 | 17,628 | 18,775 | 18,775 | 18,775 |
| Total Assets | 64,259 | 60,729 | 66,027 | 68,400 | 72,738 |
| A/P & N/P | 1,094 | 1,662 | 2,146 | 2,656 | 3,546 |
| Accrued Expenses | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other Payable | 2,199 | 3,135 | 3,692 | 3,692 | 3,692 |
| Total Current Liab. | 7,603 | 5,865 | 10,118 | 10,628 | 11,519 |
| L-T Liabilities | 16,532 | 12,328 | 8,973 | 8,973 | 8,973 |
| Total Other L-T Liab | 986 | 545 | 520 | 520 | 520 |
| Total Liabilities | 25,121 | 18,738 | 19,611 | 20,121 | 21,012 |
| Common Stocks | 4,239 | 4,239 | 4,239 | 4,239 | 4,239 |
| Preferred Stocks | |||||
| Capital Reserve | 9,970 | 9,977 | 10,059 | 10,059 | 10,059 |
| Retained earnings | 23,909 | 27,329 | 31,680 | 33,543 | |
| Treasury Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 36,991 0 |
| Total Equity | 39,138 | 41,991 | 46,415 | 48,278 | 51,726 |
| Cash Flow Statement (NT$ mn) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026e | 2027e | 2028e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adj. Net Income | 340 | 1,092 | 4,536 | 5,557 | 9,519 |
| Depreciation | 4,700 | 3,994 | 3,219 | 4,187 | 3,889 |
| Net Investment Losses (Gains) | 17 | 1,953 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Others | (2,163) | (2,158) | (2,718) | (1,601) | (2,779) |
| Cash Flow-Operating | 4,900 | 4,953 | 5,037 | 8,143 | 10,629 |
| (Purchase) of FA | (1,222) | (1,691) | (2,471) | (3,880) | (4,114) |
| Sale of Fix Asset | 1 | 6,235 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| (Purchase)L-T Inv. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sale of L-T Inv. | 0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
| Sale(Pur.)S-T Inv. | (77) | 61 | 103 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash Flow-Investing | (1,055) | 5,112 | (2,177) | (3,880) | (4,114) |
| Inc(Dec)-S-T Debt | (3,394) | (7,506) | (475) | 0 | 0 |
| Dividend Paid | 0 | (424) | (1,016) | (3,694) | (6,071) |
| Dir.&Emp.Bonus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Proceed from New Issue | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dec/Inc-TreasureSt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Others | (5,545) | (350) | 145 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash Flow-Financing | (8,939) | (8,280) | (1,346) | (3,694) | (6,071) |
| Change in Cash | (4,906) | 1,648 | 1,489 | 569 | 444 |
| Net cash/(debt), b/f | 10,326 | 5,419 | 7,067 | 8,556 | 9,125 |
| Net cash/(debt), c/f | 5,419 | 7,067 | 8,556 | 9,125 | 9,568 |
M Idea
Risk Reward Reference links
- View explanation of Options Probabilities methodolog -
Options_Probabilities_Exhibit_Link.pdf
- View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes - RR_Themes_Exhibit_Link.pdf
-
View explanation of regional hierarchies - GEG_Exhibit_Link.pdf
-
View explanation of Theme/Exposure methodolog -
ESG_Sustainable_Solutions_External_Link.pdf
- View explanation of HERS methodolog - ESG_HERS_External_Link.pdf
M Idea
INDUSTRY COVERAGE: Greater China Technology Semiconductors
| Company (Ticker) | Rating (As Of) | Price* (10/29/2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Chan | ||
| Advanced Wirele Semiconductor Co (8086.TWO) | U (07/14/2025) | NT$122.00 |
| Alchip Technologie Ltd (3661.TW) | O (05/14/2021) | NT$3,680.00 |
| ASE Technology Holding Co. Ltd. (3711.TW) | O (09/15/2024) | NT$683.00 |
| Cambricon Technology Corporation (688256.SS) | O (04/27/2026) | Rmb913.00 |
| CXMT Corp (688825.SS) | O (08/26/2026) | Rmb42.87 |
| Global Unichip Corp (3443.TW) | O (06/24/2026) | NT$7,640.00 |
| GlobalWafer Co Ltd (6488.TWO) | E (05/19/2026) | NT$814.00 |
| Gudeng Preci ion (3680.TWO) | O (11/25/2025) | NT$521.00 |
| Hua Hong Semiconductor Ltd (1347.HK) | E (03/12/2026) | HK$64.60 |
| Iluvatar CoreX Semiconductor Co., Ltd. (9903.HK) | O (04/27/2026) | HK$67.15 |
| MediaTek (2454.TW) | O (11/28/2025) | NT$4,045.00 |
| MetaX Integrated Circuit (688802.SS) | E (04/27/2026) | Rmb457.22 |
| Nanya Technology Corp. (2408.TW) | O (05/28/2026) | NT$477.00 |
| Phi on Electronic Corp (8299.TWO) | E (02/25/2026) | NT$2,050.00 |
| SG Micro Corp. (300661.SZ) | E (11/03/2025) | Rmb88.59 |
| Silergy Corp. (6415.TW) | U (05/19/2026) | NT$524.00 |
| SMIC (0981.HK) | O (10/21/2025) | HK$44.96 |
| TSMC (2330.TW) | O (02/07/2022) | NT$2,415.00 |
| UMC (2303.TW) | O (05/19/2026) | NT$115.50 |
| Vanguard International Semiconductor (5347.TWO) | E (01/14/2026) | NT$156.50 |
| WIN Semiconductor Corp (3105.TWO) | O (10/29/2026) | NT$594.00 |
| Daisy Dai, CFA | ||
| ASMPT Ltd (0522.HK) | O (07/24/2025) | HK$113.20 |
M Idea
| China Re ource Microelectronic Limited (688396.SS) | U (03/02/2026) | Rmb48.63 |
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| Empyrean Technology Co Ltd (301269.SZ) | E (01/17/2025) | Rmb97.70 |
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| Hygon Information Technology Co., Ltd. (688041.SS) | O (07/03/2026) | Rmb185.88 |
| Inno cience (2577.HK) | E (10/13/2025) | HK$29.50 |
| JCET Group Co Ltd (600584.SS) | O (09/16/2026) | Rmb51.87 |
| Shanghai Fudan Microelectronic (1385.HK) | O (03/07/2025) | HK$22.64 |
| SICC Co Ltd (688234.SS) | O (03/20/2026) | Rmb75.68 |
| SJ Semiconductor Corp (688820.SS) | E (09/16/2026) | Rmb78.28 |
| StarPower Semiconductor Ltd (603290.SS) | E (05/14/2026) | Rmb69.07 |
| Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronic Co Ltd (002049.SZ) | U (01/10/2023) | Rmb47.78 |
| Univer al Scientific Ind. (Shanghai) (601231.SS) | O (11/05/2025) | Rmb19.82 |
| Yangjie Technology (300373.SZ) | O (06/10/2022) | Rmb72.84 |
| Daniel Yen, CFA | ||
| AP Memory Technology Corp (6531.TW) | O (07/11/2025) | NT$841.00 |
| ASMedia Technology Inc (5269.TW) | U (10/03/2025) | NT$1,465.00 |
| A peed Technology (5274.TWO) | O (06/09/2025) | NT$16,980.00 |
| Egi Technology Inc (6462.TWO) | E (01/28/2026) | NT$98.60 |
| Elan Microelectronic Corp (2458.TW) | O (10/03/2025) | NT$129.00 |
| eMemory Technology Inc (3529.TWO) | O (08/18/2026) | NT$2,540.00 |
| E pre if Sy tem (688018.SS) | O (05/15/2023) | Rmb134.42 |
| GigaDevice Semiconductor Beijing Inc (603986.SS) | O (05/15/2025) | Rmb275.99 |
| Himax Technologie Inc (HIMX.O) | E (02/04/2026) | US$12.01 |
| Macronix International Co Ltd (2337.TW) | O (09/18/2025) | NT$100.00 |
| Montage Technology Co Ltd (6809.HK) | O (03/18/2026) | HK$215.00 |
| Montage Technology Co Ltd (688008.SS) | O (03/18/2026) | Rmb166.79 |
| Novatek (3034.TW) | U (02/04/2026) | NT$596.00 |
| Nuvoton Technology Corporation (4919.TW) | U (11/10/2025) | NT$133.00 |
| Parade Technologie Ltd (4966.TWO) | U (10/29/2026) | NT$490.50 |
| Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (6770.TW) | O (10/27/2025) | NT$69.50 |
| Realtek Semiconductor (2379.TW) | E (01/30/2026) | NT$794.00 |
| Shenzhen Goodix Technology Co Ltd (603160.SS) | U (07/14/2025) | Rmb59.53 |
| Silicon Motion (SIMO.O) | O (05/06/2024) | US$219.61 |
| Winbond Electronic Corp (2344.TW) | O (05/28/2026) | NT$170.50 |
| WPG Holding (3702.TW) | O (03/16/2026) | NT$110.00 |
| WT Microelectronic Co. Ltd. (3036.TW) | O (01/27/2026) | NT$214.00 |
| Henry Zhao | ||
| ACM Re earch Inc (ACMR.O) | O (03/07/2023) | US$53.02 |
| Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc (688012.SS) | O (11/06/2023) | Rmb227.00 |
| Max cend Microelectronic Co Ltd (300782.SZ) | U (01/11/2021) | Rmb54.38 |
| NAURA Technology Group Co Ltd (002371.SZ) | O (11/06/2023) | Rmb497.30 |
| OmniVi ion Integrated Circuit Group Inc (603501.SS) | E (10/29/2026) | Rmb85.79 |
| Lucas Wang | ||
| AllRing Tech Co. (6187.TWO) | O (09/23/2025) | NT$1,260.00 |
| FOCI Fiber Optic Communication Inc (3363.TWO) | E (10/09/2026) | NT$490.00 |
| Hon Preci ion (7769.TW) | O (04/17/2026) | NT$5,190.00 |
| King Yuan Electronic Co Ltd (2449.TW) | O (03/03/2023) | NT$269.50 |
| MPI Corporation (6223.TWO) | O (04/17/2026) | NT$4,840.00 |
Stock Ratings are subject to c ange. Please see latest researc for eac company.
- Historical prices are not split adjusted.