PDF 原檔：報告_MS_欣興3037_20261021_original.pdf
原始內容
M Update October 21, 2026 05:17 PM GMT
Unimicron | Asia Pacific
Key ABF substrate customer announces capacity reservation agreements
What's new? According to a press release on October 21, at GTC Berlin NVIDIA (covered by oseph Moore) named Unimicron as one of three partners in its plan to lift substrate capacity 2.5x over three years. A capacity reservation agreement supports Unimicron's KF (Kuangfu) plant expansion in Taiwan, with additions expected from 2Q27 and full capacity by mid-2028.
Our read-through: We believe this implies robust multi-year, AI-driven substrate demand. NVIDIA's capacity reservation likely covers Unimicron's 2Q27 KF Plant 2 step flagged in uly (see our earnings call takeaways), which could lower the financial risk of overcapacity as Unimicron deploys its NT$53.7bn 2026 capex budget. Stay OW with a price target of NT$1,775.
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Howard Kao Equity Analyst H ward.Ka @m rganstanley.c m | +886 2 2730-2989 |
|---|---|
| Irene Yen Equity Analyst Irene.Yen@m rganstanley.c m | +886 2 2730-2869 |
| Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Andy Meng, CFA Equity Analyst Andy.Meng@m rganstanley.c m | +852 2239-7689 |
Unimicron(3037.TW, 3037 TT)
Greater China Technology Hardware | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Stock Rating | Stock Rating | Stock Rating | Overweight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry View | Industry View | Industry View | Industry View | In-Line |
| Price target | Price target | Price target | Price target | NT$1,775.00 |
| Up/downside to price target (%) | Up/downside to price target (%) | Up/downside to price target (%) | Up/downside to price target (%) | 61 |
| hr price, close (Oct 21, 2026) | hr price, close (Oct 21, 2026) | hr price, close (Oct 21, 2026) | hr price, close (Oct 21, 2026) | NT$1,100.00 |
| 52-Week Range | 52-Week Range | 52-Week Range | NT$1,420.00-153.42 | NT$1,420.00-153.42 |
| h out, dil, curr (mn) | h out, dil, curr (mn) | h out, dil, curr (mn) | 1,505 | 1,505 |
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | Mkt cap, curr (mn) | Mkt cap, curr (mn) | U $50,747 | U $50,747 |
| EV, curr (mn) | EV, curr (mn) | EV, curr (mn) | U $53,089 | U $53,089 |
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | Avg daily trading value (mn) | Avg daily trading value (mn) | U $615 | U $615 |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e | 12/28e |
| EP (NT$)** | 4.34 | 23.99 | 43.46 | 74.32 |
| EP (NT$)§ | 3.93 | 22.20 | 41.26 | 68.06 |
| Revenue, net (NT$ mn) | 131,241189,806279,618381,382 | |||
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 26,272 | 53,346103,138162,370 | ||
| ModelWare net inc (NT | 6,673 | 36,923 | 66,887114,374 | |
| $ mn) | ||||
| P/E | 50.7 | 45.8 | 25.3 | 14.8 |
| P/BV | 3.2 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 6.2 |
| RNOA (%) | 3.7 | 15.1 | 32.5 | 52.3 |
| ROE (%) | 6.7 | 34.5 | 47.6 | 60.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.8 | 32.2 | 16.3 | 9.9 |
| Div yld (%) | 0.7 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| FCF yld ratio (%) | (0.6) | 2.1 | 5.4 | 8.3 |
| Leverage (EOP) (%) | (8.6) | (38.0) | (68.5) | (88.3) |
Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan tanley ModelWare framework
** = Based on consensus methodology
§ = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates
e = Morgan tanley Research estimates
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
M Update
Valuation Methodology and Risks
Unimicron (3037.TW)
Base case, residual income (RI) valuation model, which we think derives the most accurate value of the firm given that it takes into account cost of equity. We use a cost of equity of 9.2% [risk-free rate of 1% (10-year Taiwan government note yield), equity risk premium of 8.7%, and a beta of 1.0], a medium-term growth rate of 14%, and a terminal growth rate of 3%.
Risks to Upside
- n Better-than-expected ABF substrate demand from PC and server customers
- n Capex cuts; halt to its capacity expansion plan
- n Continued yield issues of alternative technology that doesn't require substrate (e.g., CoWoP)
Risks to Downside
- n Sudden demand shortfall
- n Technological change that would not require ABF substrates
- n Intensifying competition
- n Yield issues or production hiccups when ramping new capacity
M Update
INDUSTRY COVERAGE: Gre ter Chin Technology H rdw re
| Company (Ticker) | Rating (As Of) | Price* (10/21/2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Meng, CFA | ||
| AAC Technologies Holdings (2018.HK) | O (01/29/2024) | HK$36.24 |
| Accelink Technologies Co. Ltd. (002281. Z) | U (05/12/2022) | Rmb135.70 |
| BYD Electronics (0285.HK) | O (04/28/2023) | HK$22.46 |
| China TransInfo Technology Co Ltd (002373. Z) | E (07/18/2023) | Rmb7.37 |
| Dahua Technology Co. Ltd. (002236. Z) | E (12/12/2024) | Rmb14.85 |
| Eoptolink Technology Inc Ltd (300502. Z) | O (02/27/2026) | Rmb294.12 |
| Genius Electronic Optical Co. Ltd. (3406.TW) | E (10/13/2026) | NT$1,140.00 |
| GoerTek Inc (002241. Z) | E (08/14/2026) | Rmb21.04 |
| Gosuncn Technology Group Co Ltd (300098. Z) | U (11/07/2022) | Rmb4.16 |
| HIKVision Digital Technology (002415. Z) | E (12/12/2024) | Rmb32.34 |
| Largan Precision (3008.TW) | O (10/13/2026) | NT$6,170.00 |
| LianChuang Electronic Technology Co Ltd (002036. Z) | U (06/12/2024) | Rmb5.62 |
| Lingyi Itech Guangdong Co (002600. Z) | U (04/23/2025) | Rmb10.85 |
| Lingyi Itech Guangdong Co (1688.HK) | O (08/14/2026) | HK$4.93 |
| Luxshare Precision Industry Co., Ltd. (2475.HK) | O (08/14/2026) | HK$49.36 |
| Luxshare Precision Industry Co., Ltd. (002475. Z) | O (10/24/2016) | Rmb48.09 |
| OFILM Group Co Ltd (002456. Z) | U (06/12/2024) | Rmb6.23 |
| Q Technology (Group) Company Ltd (1478.HK) | U (03/23/2026) | HK$4.81 |
| Quectel Wireless olutions Co Ltd (603236. ) | E (10/09/2024) | Rmb83.72 |
| hanghai Conant Optical Co Ltd (2276.HK) | O (04/10/2026) | HK$37.24 |
| henzhen Transsion Holdings Co Ltd (688036. ) | E (03/23/2026) | Rmb55.52 |
| unny Optical (2382.HK) | E (03/23/2026) | HK$61.60 |
| uzhou TFC Optical Communication Co Ltd. (300394. Z) | E (11/06/2025) | Rmb214.98 |
M Update M Update St ck Ratings are subject t change. Please see latest research f r each c mpany.
| Wingtech Technology Co Ltd (600745. ) | U (05/18/2026) | Rmb11.70 |
|---|---|---|
| Xiaomi Corp (1810.HK) | O (04/14/2021) | HK$26.80 |
| Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable J C Ltd (601869. ) | U (10/13/2021) | Rmb350.80 |
| Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable J C Ltd (6869.HK) | O (07/15/2026) | HK$125.50 |
| Yongxin Optics Co Ltd (603297. ) | E (11/15/2022) | Rmb97.03 |
| Zhejiang Crystal-Optech Co Ltd (002273. Z) | O (11/15/2022) | Rmb21.71 |
| Zhongji Innolight Co Ltd (300308. Z) | O (09/07/2026) | Rmb646.77 |
| Zhongji Innolight Co Ltd (3308.HK) | O (09/07/2026) | HK$781.00 |
| ZTE Corporation (0763.HK) | O (06/04/2026) | HK$19.62 |
| ZTE Corporation (000063. Z) | E (06/04/2026) | Rmb27.63 |
| Derrick Yang | ||
| Accton Technology Corporation (2345.TW) | O (06/06/2024) | NT$1,815.00 |
| Advantech (2395.TW) | O (01/20/2021) | NT$683.00 |
| AirTAC International (1590.TW) | O (04/16/2025) | NT$1,120.00 |
| Asia Vital Components Co. Ltd. (3017.TW) | O (07/30/2024) | NT$3,235.00 |
| AU Optronics (2409.TW) | E (02/10/2026) | NT$37.25 |
| Auras Technology Co Ltd (3324.TWO) | E (05/04/2023) | NT$1,375.00 |
| Bizlink (3665.TW) | O (03/10/2025) | NT$1,950.00 |
| BOE Technology (000725. Z) | O (09/06/2019) | Rmb5.05 |
| Chenbro (8210.TW) | O (07/23/2025) | NT$802.00 |
| Chroma Ate Inc. (2360.TW) | O (10/05/2021) | NT$2,010.00 |
| Delta Electronics Inc. (2308.TW) | O (07/13/2017) | NT$1,625.00 |
| E Ink Holdings Inc. (8069.TWO) | E (08/10/2026) | NT$155.50 |
| Ennostar Inc (3714.TW) | U (09/23/2022) | NT$62.60 |
| Fositek Corp (6805.TW) | O (06/25/2025) | NT$2,395.00 |
| Hiwin Technologies Corp. (2049.TW) | O (03/30/2026) | NT$308.00 |
| Innolux (3481.TW) | E (04/07/2025) | NT$48.50 |
| King lide Works Co. Ltd. (2059.TW) | O (11/08/2023) | NT$10,080.00 |
| Lens Technology (300433. Z) | E (07/22/2020) | Rmb26.71 |
| Lite-On Technology (2301.TW) | E (01/15/2025) | NT$263.50 |
| TCL Corp. (000100. Z) | E (04/07/2025) | Rmb4.43 |
| Tianma Microelectronics (000050. Z) | U (01/24/2018) | Rmb5.79 |
| Howard Kao | ||
| Acer Inc. (2353.TW) | U (04/23/2025) | NT$32.30 |
| Asustek Computer Inc. (2357.TW) | U (11/16/2025) | NT$982.00 |
| Catcher Technology (2474.TW) | U (11/17/2025) | NT$195.50 |
| Compal Electronics (2324.TW) | U (04/23/2025) | NT$37.70 |
| Elite Material Co. (2383.TW) | O (09/14/2026) | NT$4,990.00 |
| FIT Hon Teng Ltd (6088.HK) | O (11/03/2025) | HK$4.06 |
| Foxconn Industrial Internet Co. Ltd. (601138. ) | O (07/10/2019) | Rmb49.70 |
| Giga-Byte Technology Co. Ltd. (2376.TW) | E (11/16/2025) | NT$358.50 |
| Gold Circuit Electronics Ltd. (2368.TW) | O (10/06/2022) | NT$1,195.00 |
| Hon Hai Precision (2317.TW) | O (03/15/2024) | NT$250.00 |
| Inspur Electronic Information (000977. Z) | E (08/28/2023) | Rmb58.40 |
| Kingboard Laminates Holdings Ltd. (1888.HK) | O (09/14/2026) | HK$40.62 |
| LandMark Optoelectronics Corporation (3081.TWO) | E (03/26/2026) | NT$2,625.00 |
| Lenovo (0992.HK) | O (07/10/2026) | HK$26.00 |
| Lotes Co. Ltd. (3533.TW) | E (05/12/2025) | NT$1,820.00 |
| Nan Ya PCB (8046.TW) | O (02/23/2026) | NT$1,340.00 |
| Pegatron Corporation (4938.TW) | E (03/25/2026) | NT$105.00 |
| Quanta Computer Inc. (2382.TW) | O (05/01/2023) | NT$328.50 |
| hengyi Technology Co Ltd. (600183. ) | E (05/26/2022) | Rmb118.99 |
| hennan Circuits Co Ltd (002916. Z) | E (08/24/2023) | Rmb305.60 |
| Unimicron (3037.TW) | O (02/23/2026) | NT$1,100.00 |
| Visual Photonics Epitaxy Co Ltd (2455.TW) | E (09/11/2023) | NT$490.50 |
| Wistron Corporation (3231.TW) | O (07/12/2023) | NT$195.00 |
|---|---|---|
| Wiwynn Corp (6669.TW) | O (11/10/2025) | NT$1,880.00 |
| Yageo Corp. (2327.TW) | O (10/28/2025) | NT$542.00 |
| Zhen Ding (4958.TW) | ++ | NT$578.00 |
| Irene Yen | ||
| Co-Tech Development Corp. (8358.TWO) | O (09/14/2026) | NT$482.00 |
| Taiwan Union Technology Corporation (6274.TWO) | O (09/14/2026) | NT$1,500.00 |
- Hist rical prices are n t split adjusted.
© 2026 Morgan Stanley
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-10-23）
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
報告_MS_欣興3037_20261021_001.png |
51KB | 真資料圖（財務／股價類，不嵌 lib） | 股價與 MS 目標價歷史走勢圖，橫軸 10/01/2023 至 10/01/2026，藍線為股價、紅色虛線階梯為目標價（標示 138.57、125.7、118.77、81.66、120.75、500、550、785、1225、1285、1465、1775），上方為評等標記（U/I、E/I、O/I） |