PDF 原檔：報告_MS_Panasonic台灣CCL廠火災影響_20261104_original.pdf
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-11-07）
驗證日 2026-11-07。三張皆為 MS 附件股價走勢圖（財務／股價類），不嵌 lib。
| 檔名 | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|
| 報告_MS_Panasonic台灣CCL廠火災影響_20261104_001.png | 真資料圖（股價，不嵌 lib） | 2023/11～2026/11 日線股價走勢，右上標 O/I 與目標價階梯 8,400→8,800，股價約 4,400（對應報告所列台光電 2383） |
| 報告_MS_Panasonic台灣CCL廠火災影響_20261104_002.png | 真資料圖（股價，不嵌 lib） | 同格式走勢圖，目標價階梯 17.5→19→22→70→74→170，股價約 75（對應報告所列生益科技 600183） |
| 報告_MS_Panasonic台灣CCL廠火災影響_20261104_003.png | 真資料圖（股價，不嵌 lib） | 同格式走勢圖，右上標 O/I 與目標價 2,700→2,550，股價約 1,100（對應報告所列台燿 6274） |
原始內容
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M Update November 4, 2026 04:01 PM GMT
Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific
Implications from fire at Panasonic's Taiwan CCL factory
Key Takeaways
- A fire at Panasonic's CCL factory in Hsinchu may push near-term orderflow to Taiwanese competitors.
- Within our coverage, we see EMC as most likely to receive orders, followed by TUC and Shengyi Tech EW).
- EMC is also a high-end CCL supplier to Panasonic's key ASIC customer.
- Valuations are attractive for EMC and TUC, and we remain OW on both.
What's new? Earlier today, a fire broke out at Panasonic's covered by Kazuo Yoshikawa) CCL factory in Hsinchu, Taiwan. The fire was extinguished before noon see Reuters' report), but Panasonic has yet to issue an official statement in response to the incident.
Our view: Our checks indicate that this plant has monthly capacity of ~200K sheets and primarily produces M6/7 and some lower-end BT substrate CCLs. Panasonic also operates CCL sites in Fukushima, Japan; Guangzhou and Suzhou, China; and Ayutthaya, Thailand, which remains under construction. Most high-end M7/8 CCL is produced in Fukushima, while the China sites supply much of its mainstream CCL. Our supply chain checks suggest Panasonic is reallocating capacity toward high-end CCL for AI applications - particularly a key US hyperscaler's in-house ASICs, as highend CCL supply remains tight. Although the Hsinchu plant is immaterial to group capacity, the fire could accelerate this shift, potentially driving near-term customer order overflow to Taiwanese CCL competitors.
Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+
Irene Yen
Equity Analyst I ene.Yen@mo ganstanley.com
Howard Kao
Equity Analyst Howa d.Kao@mo ganstanley.com
Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+
Andy Meng, CFA
Equity Analyst Andy.Meng@mo ganstanley.com
Morgan Stanley appreciates your support in the 2027 Extel Asia Research Survey. Voting opens 10 Novem er 2026.
Greater China Technology Hardware
Asia Pacific
Industry View In-Line
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
M Update
Valuation Methodology and Risks
Elite Material Co. (2383.TW)
Base case, derived from a residual income RI) model. Key assumptions include a cost of equity of 9.3% beta of 1.0, equity premium of 8.7% and risk-free rate of 1%), medium-term growth rate of 12%, and terminal growth rate of 3%.
Risks to Upside
- n Stronger AI demand
- n Share gains
- n Faster-than-expected material upgrades
- n Slower-than-expected CPO adoption
Risks to Downside
- nWeaker AI demand
- n Share loss
- n Slower-than-expected material upgrades
- n Faster-than-expected CPO adoption
Sheng i Technolog Co Ltd. (600183.SS)
Base case, derived from a residual income RI) model. Key assumptions include a cost of equity of 7.3% beta of 1.2, equity premium of 5% and risk-free rate of 1.3%), 10% medium-term growth rate and 3% terminal growth rate.
Risks to Upside
- n Accelerated demand for 5G and data center CCL/PCB.
- n Further share gains for 5G and data center CCL/PCB.
- nMeaningful penetration into IC substrate CCL, benefiting from China's semiconductor localization.
Risks to Downside
- n Rising competition for 5G and data center CCL/PCB.
- nDelay in 5G network deployment.
- n Escalating US-China trade tensions.
Taiwan Union Technolog Corporation (6274.TWO)
Base case, derived from a residual income RI) model. Key assumptions include a cost of equity of 9.3% beta of 1.0, equity premium of 8.7% and risk-free rate of 1%), medium-term growth rate of 11%, and terminal growth rate of 3%.
Risks to Upside
- n Stronger AI demand
M Update
- n Share gains
- n Faster-than-expected material upgrades
- n Slower-than-expected CPO adoption
Risks to Downside
- nWeaker AI demand
- n Share loss
- n Slower-than-expected material upgrades
- n Faster-than-expected CPO adoption
M Update
INDUSTRY COVERAGE: Greater China Technology Hardware
| Company (Ticker) | Rating (As Of) | Price* (11/04/2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Meng, CFA | ||
| AAC Te hnologies Holdings (2018.HK) | O (01/29/2024) | HK$36.96 |
| A elink Te hnologies Co. Ltd. (002281.SZ) | U (05/12/2022) | Rmb98.23 |
| BYD Ele troni s (0285.HK) | O (04/28/2023) | HK$21.18 |
| China TransInfo Te hnology Co Ltd (002373.SZ) | E (07/18/2023) | Rmb8.01 |
| Dahua Te hnology Co. Ltd. (002236.SZ) | E (12/12/2024) | Rmb14.71 |
| Eoptolink Te hnology In Ltd (300502.SZ) | O (02/27/2026) | Rmb196.50 |
| Genius Ele troni Opti al Co. Ltd. (3406.TW) | E (10/13/2026) | NT$939.00 |
| GoerTek In (002241.SZ) | E (08/14/2026) | Rmb23.63 |
| Gosun n Te hnology Group Co Ltd (300098.SZ) | U (11/07/2022) | Rmb4.05 |
| HIKVision Digital Te hnology (002415.SZ) | E (12/12/2024) | Rmb35.17 |
| Largan Pre ision (3008.TW) | O (10/13/2026) | NT$5,010.00 |
| LianChuang Ele troni Te hnology Co Ltd (002036.SZ) | U (06/12/2024) | Rmb5.24 |
| Lingyi Ite h Guangdong Co (002600.SZ) | U (04/23/2025) | Rmb11.77 |
| Lingyi Ite h Guangdong Co (1688.HK) | O (08/14/2026) | HK$5.55 |
| Luxshare Pre ision Industry Co., Ltd. (2475.HK) | O (08/14/2026) | HK$50.60 |
| Luxshare Pre ision Industry Co., Ltd. (002475.SZ) | O (10/24/2016) | Rmb49.51 |
| OFILM Group Co Ltd (002456.SZ) | U (06/12/2024) | Rmb5.68 |
| Q Te hnology (Group) Company Ltd (1478.HK) | U (03/23/2026) | HK$4.39 |
| Que tel Wireless Solutions Co Ltd (603236.SS) | E (10/09/2024) | Rmb74.00 |
| Shanghai Conant Opti al Co Ltd (2276.HK) | O (04/10/2026) | HK$35.64 |
| Shenzhen Transsion Holdings Co Ltd (688036.SS) | E (03/23/2026) | Rmb58.76 |
| Sunny Opti al (2382.HK) | E (03/23/2026) | HK$63.80 |
| Suzhou TFC Opti al Communi ation Co Ltd. (300394.SZ) | E (11/06/2025) | Rmb136.00 |
| Wingte h Te hnology Co Ltd (600745.SS) | U (05/18/2026) | Rmb11.97 |
| Xiaomi Corp (1810.HK) | O (04/14/2021) | HK$28.76 |
| Yangtze Opti al Fibre and Cable JSC Ltd (601869.SS) | U (10/13/2021) | Rmb271.50 |
M Update M Update Stock Ratings a e subject to change. Please see latest esea ch fo each company.
| Yangtze Opti al Fibre and Cable JSC Ltd (6869.HK) | O (07/15/2026) | HK$109.80 |
|---|---|---|
| Yongxin Opti s Co Ltd (603297.SS) | E (11/15/2022) | Rmb96.23 |
| Zhejiang Crystal-Opte h Co Ltd (002273.SZ) | O (11/15/2022) | Rmb23.50 |
| Zhongji Innolight Co Ltd (300308.SZ) | O (09/07/2026) | Rmb533.38 |
| Zhongji Innolight Co Ltd (3308.HK) | O (09/07/2026) | HK$667.00 |
| ZTE Corporation (0763.HK) | O (06/04/2026) | HK$20.26 |
| ZTE Corporation (000063.SZ) | E (06/04/2026) | Rmb28.56 |
| Derrick Yang | ||
| A ton Te hnology Corporation (2345.TW) | O (06/06/2024) | NT$1,480.00 |
| Advante h (2395.TW) | O (01/20/2021) | NT$629.00 |
| AirTAC International (1590.TW) | O (04/16/2025) | NT$1,050.00 |
| Asia Vital Components Co. Ltd. (3017.TW) | O (07/30/2024) | NT$2,820.00 |
| AU Optroni s (2409.TW) | E (02/10/2026) | NT$29.10 |
| Auras Te hnology Co Ltd (3324.TWO) | E (05/04/2023) | NT$1,300.00 |
| Bizlink (3665.TW) | O (03/10/2025) | NT$1,570.00 |
| BOE Te hnology (000725.SZ) | O (09/06/2019) | Rmb4.63 |
| Chenbro (8210.TW) | O (07/23/2025) | NT$634.00 |
| Chroma Ate In . (2360.TW) | O (10/05/2021) | NT$1,470.00 |
| Delta Ele troni s In . (2308.TW) | O (07/13/2017) | NT$1,220.00 |
| E Ink Holdings In . (8069.TWO) | E (08/10/2026) | NT$144.50 |
| Ennostar In (3714.TW) | U (09/23/2022) | NT$56.70 |
| Fositek Corp (6805.TW) | O (06/25/2025) | NT$2,080.00 |
| Hiwin Te hnologies Corp. (2049.TW) | O (03/30/2026) | NT$302.50 |
| Innolux (3481.TW) | E (04/07/2025) | NT$40.90 |
| King Slide Works Co. Ltd. (2059.TW) | O (11/08/2023) | NT$8,600.00 |
| Lens Te hnology (300433.SZ) | E (07/22/2020) | Rmb27.10 |
| Lite-On Te hnology (2301.TW) | E (01/15/2025) | NT$226.00 |
| TCL Corp. (000100.SZ) | E (04/07/2025) | Rmb4.68 |
| Tianma Mi roele troni s (000050.SZ) | U (01/24/2018) | Rmb5.69 |
| Howard Kao | ||
| A er In . (2353.TW) | U (04/23/2025) | NT$29.45 |
| Asustek Computer In . (2357.TW) | U (11/16/2025) | NT$877.00 |
| Cat her Te hnology (2474.TW) | U (11/17/2025) | NT$186.50 |
| Compal Ele troni s (2324.TW) | U (04/23/2025) | NT$33.25 |
| Elite Material Co. (2383.TW) | O (09/14/2026) | NT$4,555.00 |
| FIT Hon Teng Ltd (6088.HK) | O (11/03/2025) | HK$3.41 |
| Fox onn Industrial Internet Co. Ltd. (601138.SS) | O (07/10/2019) | Rmb45.25 |
| Giga-Byte Te hnology Co. Ltd. (2376.TW) | E (11/16/2025) | NT$324.50 |
| Gold Cir uit Ele troni s Ltd. (2368.TW) | O (10/06/2022) | NT$964.00 |
| Hon Hai Pre ision (2317.TW) | O (03/15/2024) | NT$240.00 |
| Inspur Ele troni Information (000977.SZ) | E (08/28/2023) | Rmb55.75 |
| Kingboard Laminates Holdings Ltd. (1888.HK) | O (09/14/2026) | HK$37.32 |
| LandMark Optoele troni s Corporation (3081.TWO) | E (03/26/2026) | NT$2,100.00 |
| Lenovo (0992.HK) | O (07/10/2026) | HK$20.84 |
| Lotes Co. Ltd. (3533.TW) | O (10/27/2026) | NT$1,820.00 |
| Nan Ya PCB (8046.TW) | O (02/23/2026) | NT$1,080.00 |
| Pegatron Corporation (4938.TW) | E (03/25/2026) | NT$101.50 |
| Quanta Computer In . (2382.TW) | O (05/01/2023) | NT$302.50 |
| Shengyi Te hnology Co Ltd. (600183.SS) | E (05/26/2022) | Rmb80.88 |
| Shennan Cir uits Co Ltd (002916.SZ) | E (08/24/2023) | Rmb225.60 |
| Unimi ron (3037.TW) | O (02/23/2026) | NT$888.00 |
| Visual Photoni s Epitaxy Co Ltd (2455.TW) | E (09/11/2023) | NT$384.00 |
| Wistron Corporation (3231.TW) Wiwynn Corp (6669.TW) | O (07/12/2023) | NT$176.00 NT$1,785.00 |
| O (11/10/2025) | ||
| Yageo Corp. (2327.TW) | O (10/28/2025) | NT$449.00 |
| Zhen Ding (4958.TW) | ++ | NT$433.00 |
|---|---|---|
| Irene Yen | ||
| Co-Te h Development Corp. (8358.TWO) | O (09/14/2026) | NT$366.50 |
| Taiwan Union Te hnology Corporation (6274.TWO) | O (09/14/2026) | NT$1,115.00 |
- Histo ical p ices a e not split adjusted.