PDF 原檔：報告_MS_PC月度數據_20260914_original.pdf
原始內容
M Update September 14, 2026 12:00 AM GMT
Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific
Monthly Databook: Aug-26 Shipments -19% vs. MSe; owering 3Qe by 7%, Introducing 4Qe Builds
Key Takeaways
- Top f ve ODMs' August 2026 NB sh pments were 7.3M un ts (-11% m/m, -35% y/y), 19% below our est mate.
- We see September 2026 NB bu lds at 9.9M un ts (+35% m/m, -18% y/y).
- We lower our 3Q26 NB bu ld est mate by 7% to 25.4M un ts (-16% q/q, -25% y/y).
- We ntroduce our 4Q26 NB bu ld est mate at 23.9M un ts (-6% q/q, -26% y/y).
- Our top f ve ODMs' CY26 NB bu ld est mate s ~108.8M un ts (-16% y/y).
Overall August ODM notebook shipments came in 19 below our estimate: Pull-
forward demand appears to have come to an end, channel partners and d str butors have stocked up on nventory, and OEMs are slow ng the r sales nto the channel. We bel eve th s s the ma n reason why August NB bu lds came n slower than our expectat on. However, we cont nue to expect product m x to cont nue to sh ft toward h gher-end, more-prof table models. Several ODMs such as Quanta and Compal have even lowered 3Q NB bu ld forecasts compared to the r earl er gu dance on 2Q earn ngs calls three weeks ago. Thus we lower our 3Q NB build estimate by 7 to 25.4M units (-16 q/q, -25 y/y). Th s sequent al decl ne s sub-seasonal vs. the 15-year average seasonal ty of +5% q/q n 3Q, and mpl es September NB builds at 9.9M units (+35 m/m, -18 y/y).
We introduce our 4Q notebook build estimate at 23.9M units (-6 q/q, -26 y/
y): Th s sequent al decl ne s sub-seasonal (desp te an already lowered base n 3Q) vs. the 15-year average seasonal ty of flat q/q n 4Q. None of the ODMs have prov ded off c al gu dance for 4Q notebook bu lds, but our prel m nary checks suggests that they w ll cont nue to fall q/q. On our est mate, th s mpl es that the top 5 Taiwan NB ODMs' builds for CY26 will come in at ~108.8M units (-16 y/ y).
Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+
Howard Kao
Equity Analyst
+886 2 2730-2989
Irene Yen
Research Ass ciate Irene.Yen@m rganstanley.c m
Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+
Andy Meng, CFA
Equity Analyst
+886 2 2730-2869
+852 2239-7689
Greater China Technology Hardware
Asia Pacific Industry View In-Line
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
M Update
Exhibit : M nthly NB shipments f r t p five NB ODMs
| Shipment (unit: k) | Jan-26 | Feb-26 | Mar-26 | Apr-26 | May-26 | Jun-26 | Jul-26 | Aug-26 | Aug-26E | Diff. | Sep-26E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quanta | 2,700 | 2,000 | 5,300 | 3,500 | 3,500 | 4,500 | 2,800 | 2,600 | 3,100 | -16% | 3,600 |
| Wistron | 1,700 | 1,600 | 2,800 | 1,800 | 1,700 | 2,000 | 1,600 | 1,400 | 1,600 | -13% | 1,700 |
| Others | 1,700 | 1,500 | 2,200 | 1,500 | 1,500 | 2,400 | 1,600 | 1,500 | 1,600 | -6% | 1,700 |
| Compal | 1,600 | 1,500 | 2,800 | 1,800 | 2,000 | 2,400 | 1,800 | 1,400 | 2,100 | -33% | 2,300 |
| Pegatron | 700 | 425 | 675 | 525 | 575 | 650 | 400 | 425 | 600 | -29% | 575 |
| Total | 8,400 | 7,025 | 13,775 | 9,125 | 9,275 | 11,950 | 8,200 | 7,325 | 9,000 | -19% | 9,875 |
| MoM % | |||||||||||
| Quanta | -31% | -26% | 165% | -34% | 0% | 29% | -38% | -7% | 11% | 38% | |
| Wistron | -35% | -6% | 75% | -36% | -6% | 18% | -20% | -13% | 0% | 21% | |
| Others | -15% | -12% | 47% | -32% | 0% | 60% | -33% | -6% | 0% | 13% | |
| Compal | -33% | -6% | 87% | -36% | 11% | 20% | -25% | -22% | 17% | 64% | |
| Pegatron | -24% | -39% | 59% | -22% | 10% | 13% | -38% | 6% | 50% | 35% | |
| Total | -29% | -16% | 96% | -34% | 2% | 29% | -31% | -11% | 10% | 35% | |
| YoY% | |||||||||||
| Quanta | -4% | -35% | 8% | 6% | -8% | -10% | -30% | -37% | -24% | -22% | |
| Wistron | 13% | 7% | 47% | 6% | -6% | -17% | -20% | -36% | -27% | -23% | |
| Others | 13% | -6% | 16% | -12% | -17% | 14% | -6% | -17% | -11% | -11% | |
| Compal | -20% | -29% | -3% | -18% | -17% | -4% | -22% | -39% | -9% | -8% | |
| Pegatron | 15% | -26% | -4% | -14% | -26% | -34% | -47% | -48% | -27% | -30% | |
| Total | 0% | -21% | 12% | -4% | -12% | -8% | -24% | -35% | -20% | -18% |
S urce: C mpany data, M rgan Stanley Research. E = M rgan Stanley Research estimates. "Others" are ther leaders.
M Update
Exhibit 2: Quarterly NB shipments f r t p five NB ODMs
| Shipment (unit: k) | 1Q24 | 2Q24 | 3Q24 | 4Q24 | 1Q25 | 2Q25 | 3Q25 | 4Q25 | 1Q26 | 2Q26 | 3Q26E | 3Q26E | Diff. | 4Q26E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quanta | 10,500 | 11,700 | 12,600 | 11,100 | 10,800 | 12,100 | 12,700 | 10,900 | 10,000 | 11,500 | 9,000 | 9,500 | -5% | 8,500 |
| Wistron | 4,600 | 5,100 | 5,200 | 5,300 | 4,900 | 5,900 | 6,400 | 6,900 | 6,100 | 5,500 | 4,700 | 4,800 | -2% | 4,200 |
| Others | 4,500 | 4,900 | 5,200 | 5,400 | 5,000 | 5,600 | 5,400 | 5,300 | 5,400 | 5,400 | 4,800 | 4,900 | -2% | 4,500 |
| Compal | 7,500 | 8,700 | 8,300 | 7,800 | 7,000 | 7,100 | 7,100 | 6,800 | 5,900 | 6,200 | 5,500 | 6,400 | -14% | 5,300 |
| Pegatron | 1,550 | 2,030 | 2,475 | 1,950 | 1,885 | 2,375 | 2,400 | 2,410 | 1,800 | 1,750 | 1,400 | 1,700 | -18% | 1,350 |
| Total | 28,650 | 32,430 | 33,775 | 31,550 | 29,585 | 33,075 | 34,000 | 32,310 | 29,200 | 30,350 | 25,400 | 27,300 | -7% | 23,850 |
| QoQ % | ||||||||||||||
| Quanta | 1% | 11% | 8% | -12% | -3% | 12% | 5% | -14% | -8% | 15% | -22% | -17% | -6% | |
| Wistron | -13% | 11% | 2% | 2% | -8% | 20% | 8% | 8% | -12% | -10% | -15% | -13% | -11% | |
| Others | 0% | 9% | 6% | 4% | -7% | 12% | -4% | -2% | 2% | 0% | -11% | -9% | -6% | |
| Compal | -10% | 16% | -5% | -6% | -10% | 1% | 0% | -4% | -13% | 5% | -11% | 3% | -4% | |
| Pegatron | -6% | 31% | 22% | -21% | -3% | 26% | 1% | 0% | -25% | -3% | -20% | -3% | -4% | |
| Total | -5% | 13% | 4% | -7% | -6% | 12% | 3% | -5% | -10% | 4% | -16% | -10% | -6% | |
| YoY% | ||||||||||||||
| Quanta | -3% | -7% | -4% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 1% | -2% | -7% | -5% | -29% | -25% | -22% | |
| Wistron | 18% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 7% | 16% | 23% | 30% | 24% | -7% | -27% | -25% | -39% | |
| Others | 2% | 0% | 6% | 20% | 11% | 14% | 4% | -2% | 8% | -4% | -11% | -9% | -15% | |
| Compal | -1% | 0% | -11% | -6% | -7% | -18% | -14% | -13% | -16% | -13% | -23% | -10% | -22% | |
| Pegatron | -9% | -2% | -1% | 18% | 22% | 17% | -3% | 24% | -5% | -26% | -42% | -29% | -44% | |
| Total | 1% | -1% | -4% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 2% | -1% | -8% | -25% | -20% | -26% |
S urce: C mpany data, M rgan Stanley Research. E = M rgan Stanley Research estimates. "Others" are ther leaders.
M Update
INDUSTRY COVERAGE: Greater China Technology Hardware
| Company (Ticker) | Rating (As Of) | Price* (09/ /2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Meng, CFA | ||
| AAC Te hnologies Holdings (2018.HK) | O (01/29/2024) | HK$42.00 |
| A elink Te hnologies Co. Ltd. (002281.SZ) | U (05/12/2022) | Rmb177.36 |
| BYD Ele troni s (0285.HK) | O (04/28/2023) | HK$23.86 |
| China TransInfo Te hnology Co Ltd (002373.SZ) | E (07/18/2023) | Rmb7.42 |
| Dahua Te hnology Co. Ltd. (002236.SZ) | E (12/12/2024) | Rmb15.92 |
M Update M Update St ck Ratings are subject t change. Please see latest research f r each c mpany.
| Eoptolink Te hnology In Ltd (300502.SZ) | O (02/27/2026) | Rmb423.00 |
|---|---|---|
| Genius Ele troni Opti al Co. Ltd. (3406.TW) | U (09/10/2026) | NT$1,060.00 |
| GoerTek In (002241.SZ) | E (08/14/2026) | Rmb22.24 |
| Gosun n Te hnology Group Co Ltd (300098.SZ) | U (11/07/2022) | Rmb4.38 |
| HIKVision Digital Te hnology (002415.SZ) | E (12/12/2024) | Rmb33.25 |
| Largan Pre ision (3008.TW) | E (09/10/2026) | NT$6,660.00 |
| LianChuang Ele troni Te hnology Co Ltd (002036.SZ) | U (06/12/2024) | Rmb6.33 |
| Lingyi Ite h Guangdong Co (002600.SZ) | U (04/23/2025) | Rmb13.10 |
| Lingyi Ite h Guangdong Co (1688.HK) | O (08/14/2026) | HK$6.47 |
| Luxshare Pre ision Industry Co., Ltd. (2475.HK) | O (08/14/2026) | HK$59.00 |
| Luxshare Pre ision Industry Co., Ltd. (002475.SZ) | O (10/24/2016) | Rmb55.39 |
| OFILM Group Co Ltd (002456.SZ) | U (06/12/2024) | Rmb7.00 |
| Q Te hnology (Group) Company Ltd (1478.HK) | U (03/23/2026) | HK$5.45 |
| Que tel Wireless Solutions Co Ltd (603236.SS) | E (10/09/2024) | Rmb58.91 |
| Shanghai Conant Opti al Co Ltd (2276.HK) | O (04/10/2026) | HK$42.54 |
| Shenzhen Transsion Holdings Co Ltd (688036.SS) | E (03/23/2026) | Rmb52.73 |
| Sunny Opti al (2382.HK) | E (03/23/2026) | HK$69.10 |
| Suzhou TFC Opti al Communi ation Co Ltd. (300394.SZ) | E (11/06/2025) | Rmb261.96 |
| Wingte h Te hnology Co Ltd (600745.SS) | U (05/18/2026) | Rmb17.13 |
| Xiaomi Corp (1810.HK) | O (04/14/2021) | HK$26.36 |
| Yangtze Opti al Fibre and Cable JSC Ltd (601869.SS) | U (10/13/2021) | Rmb473.99 |
| Yangtze Opti al Fibre and Cable JSC Ltd (6869.HK) | O (07/15/2026) | HK$183.50 |
| Yongxin Opti s Co Ltd (603297.SS) | E (11/15/2022) | Rmb102.68 |
| Zhejiang Crystal-Opte h Co Ltd (002273.SZ) | O (11/15/2022) | Rmb24.67 |
| Zhongji Innolight Co Ltd (300308.SZ) | O (09/07/2026) | Rmb926.00 |
| Zhongji Innolight Co Ltd (3308.HK) | O (09/07/2026) | HK$1,170.00 |
| ZTE Corporation (0763.HK) | O (06/04/2026) | HK$22.98 |
| ZTE Corporation (000063.SZ) | E (06/04/2026) | Rmb32.17 |
| Derrick Yang | ||
| A ton Te hnology Corporation (2345.TW) | O (06/06/2024) | NT$1,885.00 |
| Advante h (2395.TW) | O (01/20/2021) | NT$674.00 |
| AirTAC International (1590.TW) | O (04/16/2025) | NT$1,285.00 |
| Asia Vital Components Co. Ltd. (3017.TW) | O (07/30/2024) | NT$3,370.00 |
| AU Optroni s (2409.TW) | E (02/10/2026) | NT$30.20 |
| Auras Te hnology Co Ltd (3324.TWO) | E (05/04/2023) | NT$1,360.00 |
| Bizlink (3665.TW) | O (03/10/2025) | NT$1,875.00 |
| BOE Te hnology (000725.SZ) | O (09/06/2019) | Rmb5.33 |
| Chenbro (8210.TW) | O (07/23/2025) | NT$900.00 |
| Chroma Ate In . (2360.TW) | O (10/05/2021) | NT$2,160.00 |
| Delta Ele troni s In . (2308.TW) | O (07/13/2017) | NT$1,620.00 |
| E Ink Holdings In . (8069.TWO) | E (08/10/2026) | NT$146.00 |
| Ennostar In (3714.TW) | U (09/23/2022) | NT$61.70 |
| Fositek Corp (6805.TW) | O (06/25/2025) | NT$2,150.00 |
| Hiwin Te hnologies Corp. (2049.TW) | O (03/30/2026) | NT$359.00 |
| Innolux (3481.TW) | E (04/07/2025) | NT$47.70 |
| King Slide Works Co. Ltd. (2059.TW) | O (11/08/2023) | NT$12,080.00 |
| Lens Te hnology (300433.SZ) | E (07/22/2020) | Rmb33.27 |
| Lite-On Te hnology (2301.TW) | E (01/15/2025) | NT$277.00 |
| TCL Corp. (000100.SZ) | E (04/07/2025) | Rmb4.64 |
| Tianma Mi roele troni s (000050.SZ) | U (01/24/2018) | Rmb6.45 |
| Wuhan Jing e Ele troni Group Co Ltd (300567.SZ) | E (11/26/2021) | Rmb189.80 |
| Howard Kao | ||
| A er In . (2353.TW) | U (04/23/2025) | NT$31.10 |
| Asustek Computer In . (2357.TW) | U (11/16/2025) | NT$924.00 |
| Cat her Te hnology (2474.TW) | U (11/17/2025) | NT$204.00 |
| Compal Ele troni s (2324.TW) | U (04/23/2025) | NT$37.80 |
|---|---|---|
| FIT Hon Teng Ltd (6088.HK) | O (11/03/2025) | HK$5.28 |
| Fox onn Industrial Internet Co. Ltd. (601138.SS) | O (07/10/2019) | Rmb64.07 |
| Giga-Byte Te hnology Co. Ltd. (2376.TW) | E (11/16/2025) | NT$349.00 |
| Gold Cir uit Ele troni s Ltd. (2368.TW) | O (10/06/2022) | NT$1,030.00 |
| Hon Hai Pre ision (2317.TW) | O (03/15/2024) | NT$248.00 |
| Inspur Ele troni Information (000977.SZ) | E (08/28/2023) | Rmb70.54 |
| LandMark Optoele troni s Corporation (3081.TWO) | E (03/26/2026) | NT$2,810.00 |
| Lenovo (0992.HK) | O (07/10/2026) | HK$31.30 |
| Lotes Co. Ltd. (3533.TW) | E (05/12/2025) | NT$1,580.00 |
| Nan Ya PCB (8046.TW) | O (02/23/2026) | NT$1,080.00 |
| Pegatron Corporation (4938.TW) | E (03/25/2026) | NT$91.00 |
| Quanta Computer In . (2382.TW) | O (05/01/2023) | NT$336.50 |
| Shengyi Te hnology Co Ltd. (600183.SS) | E (05/26/2022) | Rmb148.43 |
| Shennan Cir uits Co Ltd (002916.SZ) | E (08/24/2023) | Rmb396.68 |
| Unimi ron (3037.TW) | O (02/23/2026) | NT$977.00 |
| Visual Photoni s Epitaxy Co Ltd (2455.TW) | E (09/11/2023) | NT$515.00 |
| Wistron Corporation (3231.TW) | O (07/12/2023) | NT$185.50 |
| Wiwynn Corp (6669.TW) | O (11/10/2025) | NT$2,310.00 |
| Yageo Corp. (2327.TW) | O (10/28/2025) | NT$544.00 |
| Zhen Ding (4958.TW) | ++ | NT$495.00 |
- Hist rical prices are n t split adjusted.