PDF 原檔：報告_MS_NVL72機櫃出貨_20260807_original.pdf
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-08-10）
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11KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 1：2025 年 GB200/300 NVL72 機櫃出貨（依 ODM 分堆疊長條，1Q 0.9K→2Q 4.3K→3Q 8.3K→4Q 15.5K，千台） |
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18KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 2：2026 年 GB200/300 NVL72 機櫃出貨（依 ODM 分堆疊長條，1Q 20.6K→2Q 24.0K→3Q 20.9K→4Q 15.7K，千台） |
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21KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 4：2025 年 GB200/300 NVL72 機櫃供應市占圓餅圖（鴻海 51%、廣達 21%、緯創 20%、緯穎 2%、其他 6%） |
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30KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 5：2026 年 GB200/300 NVL72 機櫃供應市占圓餅圖（鴻海 39%、廣達 23%、緯創 22%、緯穎 0%、其他 16%） |
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46KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 3：2025-2026 逐月 GB200/300 NVL72 機櫃出貨堆疊長條（Jan25 0.1K 逐月爬升至 Jul26 8.0K，依鴻海/廣達/緯創/緯穎/其他分色） |
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61KB | 真資料圖 | 鴻海(2317) 2023/08-2026/08 股價走勢圖疊加 MS 目標價階梯沿革（115→155→210→255→270→232→200→175→220→250→317→290→310） |
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66KB | 裝飾·banner | 「Asia Summer School 2026」泳池意象廣告 banner，非資料圖 |
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69KB | 真資料圖 | 緯創(3231) 2023/08-2026/08 股價走勢圖疊加 MS 目標價階梯沿革（135→145→136→143→158→168→158→150→125→140→150→210→215→205→210→275） |
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77KB | 真資料圖 | 廣達(2382) 2023/08-2026/08 股價走勢圖疊加 MS 目標價階梯沿革（240→280→305→340→370→348→335→315→325→335→310→330→332→370→400→385） |
007/008/009 為估值方法章節標準股價/目標價沿革圖（鴻海/廣達/緯創各一張），對照各公司頁「目標價與評等」表末筆 MS 最新 TP 確認對應（鴻海 NT$310、廣達 NT$385、緯創 NT$275）。
原始內容
M August 7, 2026 12:58 PM GMT
Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific
GB200 and GB300 NVL72 Racks in July 2026
We provide monthly/quarterly rack shipment forecasts for ODMs. Within the major Server ODMs, our order of preference is Wistron > Hon Hai > Quanta, based on upside to PT.
Key Takeaways
- We estimate GB200/300 rack output in July at ~8.0K (flattish m/m), within which:
- Quanta shipped 2.2-2.25K GB200/GB300 racks.
- Wistron shipped 1.1-1.2K GB200/GB300 racks.
- Hon Hai shipped ~3.6K GB200/300 racks.
Our CY26 full-year forecast is now at 80-85K racks: This bakes in our recently raised ~3.8K rack-equivalent forecast at Wistron (report here), to ~17.9K racks. This year is a strong one for downstream rack assembly. We expect over 100% y/y growth in rack shipments, vs. ~29k last year.
Quanta (2382.TW, OW): July revenue was NT$366.3B (-5% m/m, +131% y/y). We attribute the m/m decline mainly to lower NB shipments, at 2.8M units (-38% m/m). As for GB200/300 rack shipments in the month, we estimate Quanta delivered 2.22.25K racks (-4% m/m) in July. Our full-year assumption is unchanged, at ~18.7K racks.
Wistron (3231.TW, OW): July revenue was NT$308.2B (-4% m/m, +61% y/y). We attribute the m/m decline to: 1) lower NB shipment, at 1.6M units (-20% m/m); 2) lower DT shipments, at 700K units (-13% m/m); 3) lower monitor shipments, at 900K units (-10% m/m); and 4) slightly lower GB200/300 server computing tray shipments (1,150-1,200 rack equivalents, by our estimates, down 6% m/m), offset by higher Wiwynn revenue, at NT$117.7B (+6% m/m, +39% y/y). Our full-year forecast was raised to ~17.9K racks recently.
Hon Hai (2317.TW, OW): July revenue was NT$946.5B (+15% m/m, +54% y/y), with all segments growing m/m, with server-related revenue seeing the strongest m/m growth, followed by computing products, followed by components and other products, and lastly the consumer segment, which mainly includes iPhone assembly. We model HH's GB rack shipments at 3.6K racks (+9% m/m). Our full-year forecast is unchanged, at ~31.7K racks.
Update
Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+
Howard Kao
Equity Analyst Howard.Kao@morganstanley.com
+886 2 2730-2989
Irene Yen
Research Associate
Irene.Yen@morganstanley.com
+886 2 2730-2869
Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+
Andy Meng, CFA
Equity Analyst
Andy.Meng@morganstanley.com
+852 2239-7689
Greater China Technology Hardware
Asia Pacific Industry View
In-Line
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GB200/300 Exhibits
We believe actual rack deliveries to end-customers are likely lower than these numbers because we include Wistron's computing tray (L10) rack equivalent (without accounting for rack assembly and test times for L11).
Exhibit 1: Industry-wide GB200/300 NVL72-equivalent monthly rack output, by major ODMs (2025)
GB200/300 NVL72 racks by major ODMs (000s)
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates.
Exhibit 2: Industry-wide GB200/300 NVL72-equivalent monthly rack output, by major ODMs (2026)
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates.
Hon Hai
Quanta
Wistron
Exhibit 3:
Industry-wide GB200/300 NVL72-equivalent monthly rack output, by major ODMs (2025-2026)
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates.
Wiwynn
Others
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Exhibit 4: GB200/300 rack supply share, by major ODMs (2025)
GB200/300 NVL72-equivalent rack supply share (2025)
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates.
Exhibit 5: GB200/300 rack supply share, by major ODMs (2026)
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates.
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Valuation Methodology and Risks
Hon Hai Precision (2317.TW)
Base case scenario value, derived from a residual income valuation model. Our key assumptions include a cost of equity of 8.5%, a medium-term growth rate of 13%, and a terminal growth rate of 3%.
Risks to Upside
- n Better-than-expected iPhone sell-through
- n Faster progress in AI server business
- n Faster EV business development progress
- n Any new M&A activity that could improve sentiment
Risks to Downside
- n Lower iPhone sell-through
- n Smaller profit contribution from AI business
- n Slower EV business development progress
- n Geopolitical developments that could negatively affect foreign investment
Quanta Computer Inc. (2382.TW)
Base case, residual income model. Key assumptions include a cost of equity of 9.0% (beta of 1.2, equity premium of 6.0% and risk-free rate of 1.5%), an 8.5% medium-term growth rate, and a 3% terminal growth rate.
Risks to Upside
- n Stronger-than-expected NB demand
- n Stronger-than-expected Apple Watch demand
- n Stronger-than-expected server demand
- n Faster-than-expected AI server penetration
Risks to Downside
- n Weaker-than-expected NB demand
- n Softer-than-expected Apple Watch demand
- n Weak margin performance owing to rising labor costs and sales shortfalls
- n Fierce price competition in the mega data center segment
- n Slower-than-expected AI server penetration
Wistron Corporation (3231.TW)
Base case, residual income valuation. Key assumptions: 8.7% cost of equity, 7.0% mediumterm growth rate and 3% terminal growth rate.
Risks to Upside
- n Faster-than-expected divestiture of consumer electronics business
- n Stronger-than-expected NB demand
- n Margin expansion from better product mix
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- n Faster-than-expected AI server penetration
Risks to Downside
- n Slower-than-expected divestiture of consumer electronics business
- n Weaker-than-expected NB demand
- n Margin contraction from sales shortfall and fierce competition
- n Slower-than-expected AI server penetration
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Disclosure Section
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