PDF 原檔：報告_GS_聯發科2454_20260731_original.pdf
圖片清單（已驗證 2026-08-03）
| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
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45KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 1：聯發科營收成長趨勢柱狀圖（Revenue NT$mn，2015-2028E）疊 YoY% 折線 |
260731_gs_MTK_004.png |
37KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 3：聯發科營收結構占比堆疊圖（ODD/Smartphone/TV/Tablet/IoT-Analog/ASIC/Connectivity/Automotive，2010-2028E），2026E 起 ASIC 占比明顯擴大 |
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42KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 8：Taiex 大盤（灰線,左軸）vs Mediatek 股價（深藍線,右軸 NT$）走勢對比，2012-07~2026-07 |
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42KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 9：Mediatek Forward P/E 走勢圖，股價疊多條本益比帶虛線（約 5x-60x），2012-07~2026-07 |
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42KB | 真資料圖 | Exhibit 10：Mediatek Forward P/B 走勢圖，股價疊多條 P/B 帶虛線（約 5x-17x），2012-07~2026-07 |
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83KB | 真資料圖 | GS 評等與目標價歷史圖：股價走勢疊多筆目標價變動點位（770→5000+），並標示評等區間（B/N），橫軸 2023-2026 |
260731_gs_MTK_001/002/005/006/010.png（21-32KB）低於 40KB 門檻未 Read，預設非資料圖或制式頁首圖，免列。
原始內容
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MediaTek (2454.TW)
Stronger AI ASIC expectations with larger SAM and market share, next generation on track; Buy
2454.TW
12m Pri c e Target:
NT$7,000.00
Pri c e:
NT$3,555.00
Upside:
96.9%
MediaTek hosted its 2Q26 analyst meeting on 31 July. 3Q26 guidance came in better than expected, and the company has delivered an even more positive message on its AI ASIC business, which we believe further reinforces our view that the AI ASIC upcycle is just getting started. Management now expects its AI ASIC revenue to exceed US$2bn in 2026 (vs. US$2bn previously) and raised its 2027 AI ASIC SAM and market share - which now implies US$12-$16bn of AI ASIC revenue in 2027 (vs. US$7-$12bn previously). Management expressed its con fi dence in its next-gen AI ASIC project, stating that the tapeout is on track, with high volume production planned for early 2028. Packaging and substrate yields are also progressing well, which we believe should ease investor concerns around execution. Management now expects its fi rst AI ASIC project will also contribute in 2028 along with its second project, which is expected to enhance the company's market share signi fi cantly . With a stronger near- and medium-term outlook driven by AI ASIC business, we reiterate our Buy rating on MediaTek and tick up our 12m TP to NT$7,000 (25X on 2H27-1H28E EPS) from NT$6,800, implying potential upside of ~97%.
Higher AI ASIC SAM with higher market share target
Management now sees its AI ASIC SAM at US$80bn for 2027 (vs. US$70-$80bn previously) and raised its targeted market share to 15%-20% (vs. 10%-15% previously) - implying US$12-$16bn potential AI ASIC revenue in 2027. In the near term, the fi rst AI ASIC project remains on schedule, with production beginning in 4Q26.
2026 AI ASIC revenue is now expected to exceed US$2bn
(vs.
US$2bn previously), and revenue is anticipated to scale substantially in 2027, driven by increasing customer demand for its favorable cost of ownership. Overall the upbeat AI ASIC guidance rea ffi rms our con fi dence in MediaTek's AI ASIC growth outlook, and we slightly tick up our 2026E AI ASIC forecast to US$2.2bn (vs. US$2bn
BUY
Evelyn Yu
+886(2)2730-4187 | evelyn.yu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch
James Schneider, Ph.D.
+1(212)357-2929 | jim.schneider@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC
Ryan Huang, CFA
+886(2)2730-4084 | ryan.huang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Taipei Branch
Key Data _____________________________________
Market cap: NT$5.7tr / $174.1bn
Enterprise value: NT$5.4tr / $166.3bn
3m ADTV: NT$46.5bn / $1.5bn
Taiwan
Taiwan Semiconductor
M&A Rank: 3
Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No
| GS Forecast | 12/25 | __________ 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue(NT$mn) New | 595,965.7 | 682,551.7 | 1,343,097.3 | 2,483,426.5 |
| Revenue (NT$ mn) Old | 595,965.7 | 670,819.0 | 1,306,508.8 | 2,394,232.4 |
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 126,444.1 | 130,915.4 | 358,895.4 | 815,760.0 |
| EPS(NT$) New | 66.17 | 66.73 | 185.27 | 427.25 |
| EPS (NT$) Old | 66.17 | 62.24 | 181.92 | 422.17 |
| P/E (X) | 20.7 | 53.3 | 19.2 | 8.3 |
| P/B (X) | 5.5 | 13.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 5.5 | 1.6 | 4.4 | 10.1 |
| CROCI (%) | 54.0 | 39.4 | 93.1 | 201.5 |
| 6/26 | 9/26E | 12/26E | 3/27E | |
| EPS (NT$) | 15.28 | 14.85 | 21.44 | 28.19 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. See disclosures for details.
Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the fi rm may have a con fl ict of interest that could a ff ect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certi fi cation and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US a ffi liates are not registered/quali fi ed as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.
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BUY
MediaTek (2454.TW)
Rating since Feb 5, 2026
Ratios & Valuation __________________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (X) | 20.7 | 53.3 | 19.2 | 8.3 |
| P/B (X) | 5.5 | 13.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 |
| FCF yield (%) | 6.7 | 2.3 | 5.5 | 12.1 |
| EV/EBITD A R(X) | 15.5 | 41.3 | 14.5 | 5.7 |
| EV/EBITD A (excl. leases) (X) | 15.5 | 41.3 | 14.5 | 5.7 |
| CROCI (%) | 54.0 | 39.4 | 93.1 | 201.5 |
| ROE (%) | 26.4 | 26.2 | 58.2 | 79.4 |
| Net debt/e qu ity (%) | (57.3) | (62.3) | (76.7) | (87.8) |
| Net debt/e qu ity (excl. leases) (%) | (57.3) | (62.3) | (76.7) | (87.8) |
| I n te r est c ov e r (X) | 173.3 | 305.9 | 793.8 | 1 , 970.6 |
| Days i nv e n t or y ou tst , sales | 38.5 | 47.8 | 41.2 | 43.5 |
| Recei v able days | 36.9 | 54.1 | 48.7 | 49.7 |
| Days p ayable ou tsta n di ng | 179.5 | 208.9 | 169.7 | 170.7 |
| D u P on t ROE (%) | 25.7 | 25.2 | 48.2 | 60.6 |
| T urnov e r (X) | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| L e v e r a g e (X) | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Gro ss cas h i nv ested (ex cas h ) (NT $ ) | 324 , 106.7 | 330 , 152.4 | 336 , 963.8 | 352 , 363.4 |
| Av e r a g e ca p ital e mp l o yed (NT $ ) | 188 , 602.2 | 166 , 748.5 | 150 , 698.9 | 139 , 907.1 |
| BVP S (NT $ ) | 249.76 | 257.01 | 375.30 | 693.21 |
Growth & Margins (%) ______________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue growth | 12.3 | 1 4 .5 | 96.8 | 8 4 .9 |
| EBITDA growth | 2.5 | 3.5 | 17 4 .1 | 127.3 |
| EPS growth | (1.2) | 0.9 | 177.6 | 130.6 |
| DPS growth | 39.7 | (25.0) | 177.6 | 130.6 |
| EBIT margin | 17. 4 | 15.7 | 25.0 | 32.0 |
| EBITDA margin | 21.2 | 19.2 | 26.7 | 32.8 |
| Net income margin | 17.7 | 15.6 | 22.0 | 27. 4 |
Price Performance __________________________________________
| 3m | 6m | 1 2m | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute | 36.2% | 102.0% | 159.5% |
| Rel. to the Ta i wanSE We i ghted Index | 23.0% | 50.2% | 41.7% |
Source: FactSet. Price as of 31 Jul 2026 close.
Income Statement (NT$ mn) ________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| To t a l r e v e nu e | 5 95,965.7 | 682,551.7 | 1,343,097.3 | 2,483,426.5 |
| Cost of goods sold | (312,885.7) | (371,199.3) | (758,799.5) | (1,387,685.5) |
| SG&A | (31,303.9) | (33,805.5) | (38,255.3) | (43,903.9) |
| R&D | (148,306.4) | (170,696.4) | (209,744.6) | (257,274.2) |
| Other operating inc./(exp.) | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| E BITDA | 126 ,444. 1 | 1 30,9 15 .4 | 3 58 , 8 9 5 .4 | 815 , 76 0.0 |
| Depreciation& amortization | (22,974.4) | (24,064.9) | (22,597.6) | (21,197.2) |
| E BIT | 1 03,4 6 9. 7 | 1 0 6 , 85 0. 5 | 33 6 , 2 9 7 .9 | 7 94, 562 . 8 |
| Net interest inc./(exp.) | 10,222.3 | 9,719.8 | 9,784.8 | 9,795.8 |
| Income/(loss) from associates | 785.0 | 266.3 | -- | -- |
| Pre-tax pro fi t | 12 4, 887 . 8 | 12 3,9 8 3. 2 | 3 52 ,0 82 . 7 | 81 0,3 58 . 7 |
| Provision for taxes | (18,770.2) | (16,763.4) | (56,066.1) | (128,949.5) |
| Minority interest | (798.3) | (941.4) | (938.7) | (934.9) |
| Preferred dividends | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| N et inc . ( pre-ex c ept i o n a ls) | 1 0 5 ,3 1 9.3 | 1 0 6 , 278 .4 | 2 9 5 ,0 77 . 8 | 68 0,4 7 4.3 |
| Post-tax exceptionals | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| N et inc . ( po s t-ex c ept i o n a ls) | 1 0 5 ,3 1 9.3 | 1 0 6 , 278 .4 | 2 9 5 ,0 77 . 8 | 68 0,4 7 4.3 |
| E P S(b a sic , pre-ex c ept ) (N T $) | 66 . 17 | 66 . 7 3 | 185 . 27 | 4 27 . 25 |
| E P S(dilu te d , pre-ex c ept ) (N T $) | 66 . 17 | 66 . 7 3 | 185 . 27 | 4 27 . 25 |
| E P S(b a sic , po s t-ex c ept ) (N T $) | 66 . 17 | 66 . 7 3 | 185 . 27 | 4 27 . 25 |
| E P S(dilu te d , po s t-ex c ept ) (N T $) | 66 . 17 | 66 . 7 3 | 185 . 27 | 4 27 . 25 |
| DPS (NT$) | 75.05 | 56.32 | 156.38 | 360.62 |
| Div. payout ratio (%) | 113.4 | 84.4 | 84.4 | 84.4 |
Balance Sheet (NT$ mn) ____________________________________
12/25
12/26E
12/27E
12/28E
C
a
sh & c
a
sh equiv
a
lents
235,290.1
279,072.4
485,521.0
1,002,151.4
Accounts receiv
a
ble
68,597.0
133,599.3
224,873.5
451,489.9
Inventory
67,234.6
111,389.0
191,609.5
400,493.3
Other current
a
ssets
26,334.6
23,001.8
23,001.8
23,001.8
Total
current
assets
3
97,
4
56
.
2
5
4
7,
0
62
.4
925,
00
5
.
8
1,877,1
3
6
.
5
Net PP&E
60,427.4
56,490.5
49,179.1
43,268.0
Net int
a
ngibles
80,261.7
79,115.2
67,829.1
56,543.0
Tot
a
l investments
168,911.6
172,264.8
172,264.8
172,264.8
Other long-term
a
ssets
36,727.9
37,656.1
37,656.1
37,656.1
Total
assets
7
43
,78
4.
8
892,589
.
1
1,251,9
34.
9
2,186,868
.3
Accounts p
a
y
a
ble
156,525.1
268,395.5
437,078.9
861,179.5
Short-term debt
940.0
16,440.0
16,440.0
16,440.0
Short-term le
a
se li
a
bilities
--
--
--
--
Other current li
a
bilities
145,884.7
156,127.3
156,127.3
156,127.3
Total
current
liabilities
303
,
34
9
.
8
440
,962
.
8
6
0
9,6
4
6
.
2
1,
033
,7
4
6
.
9
Long-term debt
60.0
120.0
120.0
120.0
Long-term le
a
se li
a
bilities
--
--
--
--
Other long-term li
a
bilities
31,180.0
30,401.8
30,401.8
30,401.8
Total
long-term
liabilities
3
1,2
40.0
30
,521
.
8
30
,521
.
8
30
,521
.
8
Total
liabilities
334
,589
.
8
4
71,
4
8
4.
6
6
40
,168
.0
1,
0
6
4
,268
.
7
Preferred sh
a
res
--
--
--
--
Tot
a
l common equity
400,601.0
412,218.7
601,942.3
1,111,840.2
Minority
interest
8,59
4.0
8,885
.
8
9,82
4.
5
1
0
,759
.4
Total
liabilities
&
equity
7
43
,78
4.
8
892,589
.
1
1,251,9
34.
9
2,186,868
.3
Net debt,
a
djusted
(234,290.1)
(262,512.4)
(468,961.0)
(985,591.4)
Cash Flow (NT$ mn) ________________________________________
| 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | 105,319.3 | 106,278.4 | 295,077.8 | 680,474.3 |
| D&Aadd-back | 22,974.4 | 24,064.9 | 22,597.6 | 21,197.2 |
| Minority interest add-back | 798.3 | 941.4 | 938.7 | 934.9 |
| Net (inc)/dec working capital | (20,302.7) | 2,713.6 | (2,811.4) | (11,399.6) |
| Other operating cash flow | 54,003.6 | 6,088.6 | -- | -- |
| Cash flow fro m operations | 162 , 7 9 2 .9 | 1 40,0 86 .9 | 3 15 , 8 0 2 . 8 | 6 9 1 , 2 0 6 . 8 |
| Capital expenditures | (15,059.1) | (7,260.2) | (4,000.0) | (4,000.0) |
| Acquisitions | (1,141.7) | (206.8) | -- | -- |
| Divestitures | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Others | (21,553.1) | 376.3 | -- | -- |
| Cash flow fro m investing | (3 7 , 75 4.0) | ( 7 ,090. 7 ) | (4,000.0) | (4,000.0) |
| Repayment of lease liabilities | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Dividends paid(common& pref) | (86,069.6) | (106,473.2) | (105,354.2) | (170,576.4) |
| Inc/(dec) in debt | 60.0 | 15,560.0 | -- | -- |
| Other financing cash flows | (7,435.1) | 1,699.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cash flow fro m financing | (93,444. 7 ) | ( 8 9, 21 3.9) | ( 1 0 5 ,3 5 4. 2 ) | ( 17 0, 576 .4) |
| Total cash flow | 3 1 , 5 94. 2 | 43, 782 .3 | 2 0 6 ,44 8 . 6 | 516 , 6 30.4 |
| Free cash flow | 147,733.8 | 132,826.7 | 311,802.8 | 687,206.8 |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.
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previously), while maintaining our 2027E AI ASIC revenue forecast at US$20.3bn . We now expect AI ASIC to account for 10%/48% of MediaTek's revenue in 2026/27E.
Expect signi fi cant market share gains in 2028
Management expressed its con fi dence that, given the strong capability demonstrated by the fi rst AI ASIC project, its next gen project is on track with market share improving signi fi cantly as the second AI ASIC project ramps - and guided that its fi rst AI ASIC project will contribute in 2028 alongside its second project, resulting in enhanced market share. Although management did not provide guidance on the 2028 SAM, it stated it is con fi dent that the 2028 SAM will be higher than 2027. Given MediaTek's optimistic market share outlook guidance and strong dollar content growth for next-gen ASIC, we maintain our 2028E ASIC revenue forecast at US$52.5bn , which is expected to account for 68% of revenue by 2028E.
Next-gen AI ASIC progressing on track
During the meeting, management addressed investor concerns over its second-generation project in terms of timeline and production yield. On timeline, management noted that its second ASIC is on track for high-volume production in early 2028, with design and tapeout schedules progressing on track . On yield, management stated the yield and reliability of the second AI ASIC project are also on track, with improving yield at its substrate vendor. In our view, management was more constructive on the advanced packaging solution relative to the last quarter, and we believe this should ease investor concerns on potential execution risk on the second ASIC project.
Gross margin guidance consistent across generations, but we see potential upside
On margins, management maintained that AI ASIC gross margins will be broadly similar from generation to generation, and slightly dilutive to the corporate average. However, the business remains operating margin accretive, with the company's OpEx ratio expected to decline substantially as revenue and scale become larger into 2027, even as absolute OpEx rises on continued technology investment. Overall, we see potential upside to this guidance over time, as MediaTek's content value increases with each generation. We believe the second generation chip carries meaningfully higher silicon content for MediaTek with a larger chip size, deeper design engagement, additional I/O, and advanced packaging integration - leading to potentially higher gross margin relative to the fi rst generation.
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Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 3: MediaTek's revenue mix by segment
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
2Q26 results and 3Q26 guidance recap
3Q26 revenue guidance above GS and Street
For 3Q26, MediaTek expects revenue to be in a range of NT$152.2-$159.8bn (0% to 5% QoQ), gross margin to be within +/- 1.5% of 46%, and OpEx-to-sales to be within +/- 2% of 31%. 3Q26 revenue guidance (at the midpoint) came in higher vs. GSe/Bloomberg consensus of NT$153.9bn/NT$152.0bn on stronger smart edge expectations. GM guidance of 46% +/1.5% was in line vs. GSe/cons. of 46.1%/46.2%. We are now modeling 3Q26E revenue to increase by 4.8% QoQ, with GM of 46.3%. By segment, management expects fl agship smartphone revenue to be fl at to down mid-single digit QoQ, with fl agship SoC launches largely o ff setting weakness in other segment. In the smart edge segment, MediaTek is looking for mid-to-high single digit growth QoQ, driven by new connectivity/auto projects entering mass production. For the PMIC business, management expect growth to be fl attish QoQ.
2Q26 revenue beat GS and Street
2Q26 revenue was NT$152.2bn (2% QoQ/1.2% YoY), above the company's guidance of NT$140.2-$149.2bn, and 5.6%/3.7% higher vs. GSe/cons. 2Q26 GM of 46.2% was
Exhibit 2: MediaTek's margin trends
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 4: MediaTek's AI ASIC business revenue and revenue contribution
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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largely in line with GSe/cons. of 46.1/46.2%. MediaTek's 2Q26 OpM of 15.0% was also higher vs. GSe/cons. of 13.9%/14.9%. EPS of NT$15.28 (+0.7% QoQ/-12.7% YoY) was above GSe/cons. of NT$12.74/NT$14.11.
Exhibit 5: 2Q26 results summary
| 2Q26 | 1Q26 | 2Q25 | %QoQ | %YoY | GS prev. | %Diff | Consensus | %Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$mn) | |||||||||
| Revenue | 152,183 | 149,151 | 150,369 | 2.0% | 1.2% | 144,150 | 5.6% | 146,685 | 3.7% |
| Gross profit | 70,308 | 69,055 | 73,878 | 1.8% | -4.8% | 66,456 | 5.8% | 67,710 | 3.8% |
| Op. income | 22,868 | 22,891 | 29,379 | -0.1% | -22.2% | 20,061 | 14.0% | 21,917 | 4.3% |
| Net income | 24,335 | 24,154 | 27,848 | 0.7% | -12.6% | 20,288 | 19.9% | 22,429 | 8.5% |
| EPS (NT$) | 15.28 | 15.17 | 17.50 | 0.7% | -12.7% | 12.74 | 19.9% | 14.11 | 8.3% |
| GM | 46.2% | 46.3% | 49.1% | -0.1% | -2.9% | 46.1% | 0.1% | 46.2% | 0.0% |
| OpM | 15.0% | 15.3% | 19.5% | -0.3% | -4.5% | 13.9% | 1.1% | 14.9% | 0.1% |
| NM | 16.0% | 16.2% | 18.5% | -0.2% | -2.5% | 14.1% | 1.9% | 15.3% | 0.7% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Bloomberg
Earnings changes, valuation and risks
Forecast changes
We revise up our 2026E-28E earnings by 7%/2%/1% to re fl ect 1) stronger 2Q26 operating margin, 2) higher 3Q26 guidance, 3) higher 2026 AI ASIC revenue forecast.
Exhibit 6: Earnings revisions
| 2026E | 2026E | 2026E | 2027E | 2027E | 2027E | 2028E | 2028E | 2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$mn) | Old | New | Diff (%) | Old | New | Diff (%) | Old | New | Diff (%) |
| Revenue | 670,819 | 682,552 | 1.7% | 1,306,509 | 1,343,097 | 2.8% | 2,394,232 | 2,483,426 | 3.7% |
| Gross profit | 307,416 | 311,352 | 1.3% | 583,105 | 584,298 | 0.2% | 1,092,324 | 1,095,741 | 0.3% |
| Op. income | 100,283 | 106,851 | 6.5% | 329,774 | 336,298 | 2.0% | 784,797 | 794,563 | 1.2% |
| Net income | 99,122 | 106,278 | 7.2% | 289,739 | 295,078 | 1.8% | 672,385 | 680,474 | 1.2% |
| EPS (NT$) | 62.24 | 66.73 | 7.2% | 181.92 | 185.27 | 1.8% | 422.17 | 427.25 | 1.2% |
| GM | 45.8% | 45.6% | -0.2% | 44.6% | 43.5% | -1.1% | 45.6% | 44.1% | -1.5% |
| OpM | 14.9% | 15.7% | 0.7% | 25.2% | 25.0% | -0.2% | 32.8% | 32.0% | -0.8% |
| NM | 14.8% | 15.6% | 0.8% | 22.2% | 22.0% | -0.2% | 28.1% | 27.4% | -0.7% |
| 3Q26E | 3Q26E | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | 4Q26E | 4Q26E | 1Q27E | 1Q27E | 1Q27E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$mn) | Old | New | Diff (%) | Old | New | Diff (%) | Old | New | Diff (%) |
| Revenue | 153,854 | 159,420 | 3.6% | 223,664 | 221,798 | -0.8% | 246,552 | 250,013 | 1.4% |
| Gross profit | 70,990 | 73,881 | 4.1% | 100,914 | 98,108 | -2.8% | 110,717 | 109,980 | -0.7% |
| Op. income | 19,804 | 24,343 | 22.9% | 37,526 | 36,749 | -2.1% | 48,910 | 49,481 | 1.2% |
| Net income | 19,847 | 23,645 | 19.1% | 34,833 | 34,144 | -2.0% | 44,459 | 44,901 | 1.0% |
| EPS (NT$) | 12.46 | 14.85 | 19.1% | 21.87 | 21.44 | -2.0% | 27.91 | 28.19 | 1.0% |
| GM | 46.1% | 46.3% | 0.2% | 45.1% | 44.2% | -0.9% | 44.9% | 44.0% | -0.9% |
| OpM | 12.9% | 15.3% | 2.4% | 16.8% | 16.6% | -0.2% | 19.8% | 19.8% | 0.0% |
| NM | 12.9% | 14.8% | 1.9% | 15.6% | 15.4% | -0.2% | 18.0% | 18.0% | -0.1% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Reiterate Buy; TP raised to NT$7,000 from NT$6,800
We increase our 12m TP to NT$7,000 from NT$6,800 previously, following our upward earnings revisions. Our TP is based on a target P/E multiple of 25x (unchanged; +1.8 stdv above 5 yr avg. fwd P/E) applied to our FY2H27E-1H28E EPS (unchanged). Overall, our 12m TP implies ~97% upside; we reiterate our Buy rating on MediaTek.
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
cxmlbll • Meuldlekrarsullllaly
1Q26
149,151
Revenue
Gross profit
2Q26E
152,183
3Q26E
159,420
69,055
70,308
73,881
Exhibit 7: MediaTek P&L summary
EPS (NTS)
Margins (%)
Gross margin
Operating profit margin
Net margin
YOY (%)
Revenue
Gross profit
Operating profit
Net income
EPS
QoQ (%)
Revenue
Gross profit
Operating profit
Net income
EPS
For the exclusive use of KEVINLU@LENOVO.COM
1Q27E
250,013
109
,980
49,481
44,901
3Q27E
4Q27E
376,567 397,654
163,234 172,675
100,652
109,534
87,618
95,102
2026E
682,552
311,352
106,851
106,278
2027E
1,343,097
584,298
336,298
295,078
2028E
1,095,741
794,563
680,474
| 15.17 | 15.28 | 14.85 | 21.44 | 28.19 | 42.35 | 55.01 | 59.71 | 66.73 | 185.27 | 427.25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46.3% | 46.2% | 46.3% | 44.2% | 44.0% | 43.4% | 43.3% | 43.4% | 45.6% | 43.5% | 44.1% |
| 15.3% | 15.0% | 15.3% | 16.6% | 19.8% | 24.0% | 26.7% | 27.5% | 15.7% | 25.0% | 32.0% |
| 16.2% | 16.0% | 14.8% | 15.4% | 18.0% | 21.2% | 23.3% | 23.9% | 15.6% | 22.0% | 27.4% |
| 1.2% | 12.2% | 47.7% | 67.6% | 109.5% | 136.2% | 79.3% | 14.5% | 96.8% | 84.9% | |
| -6.4% | -4.8% | 11.8% | 41.6% | 59.3% | 96.9% | 120.9% | 76.0% | 10.0% | 87.7% | 87.5% |
| -23.8% -17.6% | -22.2% | 9.7% | 68.2% | 116.2% | 235.1% | 313.5% | 198.1% | 3.3% | 214.7% | 136.3% |
| -17.7% | -12.6 % -12.7% | -6.2% -6.3% | 48.9% 48.9% | 85.9% 85.8% | 177.2% 177.2% | 270.6% 270.6% | 178.5% 178.5% | 0.9% 0.9% | 177.6% 177.6% | 130.6% 130.6% |
| -0.7% | 2.0% | 4.8% | 39.1% | 12.7% | 27.5% | 18.1% | 5.6% | |||
| -0.3% | 1.8% | 5.1% | 32.8% | 12.1% | 25.8% | 17.9% | 5.8% | |||
| 4.8% | -0.1% | 6.5% | 51.0% | 34.6% | 54.9% | 31.3% | 8.8% | |||
| 5.4% 5.3% | 0.7% 0.7% | -2.8% -2.8% | 44.4% 44.4% | 31.5% 31.5% | 50.2% 50.2% | 29.9% 29.9% | 8.5% 8.5% |
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 8: Taiex vs. MediaTek
Source: Bloomberg
4026E
221,798
98,108
36,749
34,144
2Q27E
318,863
138,409
76,631
67,458
Exhibit 9: MediaTek Forward P/E
Source: Bloomberg
e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
For the exclusive use of KEVINLU@LENOVO.COM
Exhibit 10: MediaTek Forward P/B
Source: Bloomberg
Exhibit 11: MediaTek P/B vs. ROE
Source: Bloomberg
Investment Thesis, Price Target Risks and Methodology
Investment Thesis - MediaTek
MediaTek is a leading global IC design house specializing in smartphone AP (application processor). We have a positive stance on MediaTek, viewing it as well-positioned to transition from a traditional smartphone application provider to an AI-focused vendor, beginning with AI smartphones and extending to enterprise ASICs and smart automotive solutions (in partnership with NVIDIA) in 2025 and beyond. We expect MediaTek to achieve solid multi-year growth, where we expect revenue and earnings to increase by 43%/59% CAGRs, respectively, in 2025-28E. This growth will be primarily driven by: 1) market share gains, particularly in the premium segment (speci fi cally high-end 5G fl agship SoCs), 2) strong ramp in AI ASIC business, and 3) new TAM in the automotive/computing sectors.
Price Target Risks and Methodology - MediaTek (2454.TW)
Valuation: Our 12m TP of NT$7,000 is based on a target P/E multiple of 25x (1.8 stdv above its 5-year trading average) applied to our 2H27E-1H28E EPS.
Key risks to our views: (1) Weaker-than-expected end demand especially with smartphones, (2) Higher foundry cost impacting its margin outlook, (3) Intensifying competition that would result in reduced pro fi tability, and (4) Slower ramp in ASIC would result in changes in operating leverage e92c7a75ab8b4efbba794e6b187208c8
For the exclusive use of KEVINLU@LENOVO.COM