PDF 原檔：報告_Daiwa_測試介面產業_20260909_original.pdf
原始內容
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Taiwan Testing Interface
Rating: Positive
Record August revenue as robust momentum continues
Leon Chen
(886) 2 8758 6247 leon.chen@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw
Stacy Lin
(886) 2 8758 6252 stacy.lin@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw
Summary: Driven by strong AI/HPC demand, all three companies set new revenue milestones: Winway (TWD 1.71bn, +6.6% MoM, +233.4% YoY), MPI (TWD 2.05bn, +13.4% MoM, +69.9% YoY), and CHPT (TWD 638m, +3.9% MoM, +54.3% YoY). With Winway's capacity expansions tracking ahead of schedule, MPI set to begin shipping CPO insertion 3 products in 4Q26 alongside ASP hikes in late-3Q26, and CHPT nearing a qualification for its turnkey CPU ASIC project, the sector offers resilient sequential growth visibility through 2H26 and potential earnings upside heading into 2027.
What's new: Following the conclusion of SEMICON Taiwan, we have observed a marked uptick in investor enquiries regarding the semiconductor test interface supply chain. As AI/HPC architectural transitions, and the increasing complexity of 2.5D/3D packaging drive structural content gains, investors have focused increasingly on capacity visibility and technological roadmaps across the socket and probe card segments. In the note, we recap the latest August monthly revenue figures and synthesize key market dynamics across our coverage universe.
WinWay Technology (6515 TT, TWD7,280, Buy [1])
- Aug revenue result: Monthly revenue reached TWD 1.71bn ( +6.6% MoM, +233.4% YoY), bringing 1-8M26 cumulative revenue to TWD 9.81bn (+97.9% YoY). Jul-Aug sales reached 72% of our 3Q26E revenue, tracking ahead of our expectations.
- Product mix & catalysts : Growth remains anchored by aggressive tape-outs from North American GPU leaders and cloud hyperscalers. Shipments of proprietary coaxial test sockets and advanced wafer-level vertical probe cards expanded sharply. While the market may expect meaningful revenue contributions from CPO sockets or probe cards, we believe it will account for mid-single digit in 2027E and high-single digit in 2028E.
- Outlook: The company maintained a constructive stance on order visibility and persistent demand-supply tightness. Management reaffirmed that 2Q26 marked the near-term cyclical trough, guiding for sequential revenue expansion on a QoQ basis moving forward. Our supply chain checks indicate that capacity expansion execution is tracking ahead of schedule compared with last month. With Winway poised to bring additional capacity online in 2027, we suggest investors monitor the company's 2H26 earnings call (mid-Nov) for further clarity on its 2027 capex and capacity roadmap.
- Valuation: We have a Buy (1) rating with a 12-month TP of TWD10,000, based on a target PER of 70x applied to our 4-quarter-forward EPS forecast. Based on our 2027/28E EPS, the stock is currently trading at PERs of 36.9x/19.5x, vs. its previous highs of 80-90x. Downside risks: heavy reliance on major US AI chipmakers and; 2) intensifying competition that could erode design wins.
MPI Corporation (6223 TT, TWD5,615, Buy[1])
- Aug revenue result: Monthly revenue surpassed the TWD 2bn milestone for the first time, reaching TWD 2.05bn (+13.4% MoM, +69.9% YoY), bringing 1-8M26 cumulative revenue above TWD 13.0bn. Jul-Aug sales reached 63% of our 3Q26E revenue estimate, tracking slightly below our expectations.
9 September 2026
- Product mix & catalysts: Vertical Probe Cards (VPC) and MEMS probe cards are operating at near-full capacity to support volume ramps in HPC, AI accelerators, and high-speed networking ICs. MPI's AST (Advanced Semiconductor Test) and Thermal test chambers also maintained solid delivery momentum to European and US automotive and R&D laboratories. CPO insertion 3 engineering test equipment is scheduled for delivery in 4Q26, setting the stage for mass production orders in 1H27.
- Outlook: Although management's muted 3Q26 guidance initially fuelled investor scepticism, and the cumulative 2M26 run-rate is tracking slightly behind our quarterly forecast, we view the market's pessimism as overly conservative. Strong late-quarter shipment seasonality, coupled with concentrated September revenue recognition for high-end VPC/MEMS probe cards under the newly effective pricing schedule should help bridge the gap and keep 3Q26 on track to meet or exceed our top-line expectations. Looking into 4Q26 and early 2027, the commercial rollout of CPO insertion 3 equipment and continued certification progress for insertion 2 provide a multiyear growth runaway and durable operating leverage.
- Valuation: We have a Buy (1) rating with a 12-month TP of TWD8,415, based on a target PER of 65x applied to our 4-quarter-forward EPS forecast. Based on our 2027/28E EPS, the stock is currently trading at PERs of 42.9x/26.0x, vs. its peak of 80x. Downside risks: 1) Competitive and pricing pressure; and 2) delays due to AI/HPC slowdown.
Chunghwa Precision Test Tech (CHPT, 6510 TT, TWD3,610, Buy [1])
- Aug revenue result: August revenue totalled TWD 638m (+3.9% MoM, +54.3% YoY), bringing 1-8M26 cumulative revenue to TWD 4.25bn (+33.14% YoY). Jul-Aug sales reached 66% of our 3Q26E revenue, tracking in line with our expectations. In response to Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) inquiries following recent share price volatility, CHPT disclosed its August financial results. Single-month EPS came in at TWD 5.29 (net income of TWD 174m, +95% YoY), implying a quarterly EPS run-rate of TWD 15.87 (vs Daiwa estimate of TWD 16.08 and market consensus of TWD 17.52)
- Product mix & catalysts: Top-line momentum was broad-based across both the AI GPU and ASIC segments. Management highlighted ongoing footprint expansion and continued efforts to identify additional sites to scale manufacturing capacity. Moving forward, steady deliveries of AI GPU test boards, alongside the forthcoming volume ramp of custom AI ASICs, should underpin sequential revenue growth.
- Outlook: Our supply chain checks indicate CHPT is competing for three AI/HPC probe card turnkey programs, comprising a CPU ASIC, an AI ASIC program for a US automotive client, and another AI ASIC program for Taiwanese clients. The automaker qualification process is progressing smoothly, and CHPT plans to ship engineering probe cards for validation in November, with validation results expected by end-2026. Given the superior content value of probe card solutions versus board-only products, a successful qualification would provide incremental top-line upside into late-2026, while serving as a significant catalyst for 2027 revenue upgrades and valuation expansion.
- Valuation: We have a Buy (1) rating with a 12-month TP of TWD4,000, based on a target PER of 45x applied to our 4-quarter-forward EPS forecast. Based on our 2027/28E EPS, the stock is currently trading at PERs of 30.2x/24.0x, vs. its peak of 68x. Downside risks: 1) project delays and utilisation risk; and 2) loss of market share.
Winway monthly revenue trend
Source: Company
MPI monthly revenue trend
Source: Company
CHPT monthly revenue trend
Source: Company
In the interests of timeliness, this document has not been edited.