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報告_Daiwa_健策3653_20260929

更新 2026-10-01

PDF 原檔:報告_Daiwa_健策3653_20260929_original.pdf

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報告_Daiwa_健策3653_20260929_001.png 23.9KB 真資料圖 Jentech 股價走勢圖(Jentech Pr,TWD,左軸)+ Relative to TWSE Index(%,右軸),Sep-25 至 Jun-26
報告_Daiwa_健策3653_20260929_002.png 40.1KB 真資料圖 Jentech 營收組合堆疊長條圖 2020-2028E:Thermal heat spreader/Lead frame/Electronic Components/Communication connectors/Others 占比,Thermal heat spreader 由 2020 年 47% 升至 2028E 88%
報告_Daiwa_健策3653_20260929_003.png 33.2KB 真資料圖 Jentech 股價對 12x/24x/36x/48x/60x 遠期 PER 倍數帶走勢圖,Sep-20 至 Sep-26

001/003 皆 <40KB,但內容明確為股價走勢與估值倍數帶真實圖表,故逐張 Read 後列為真資料圖(非預設略過)。

原始內容

JentechPrecisionIndustrial (3653TT)

Target price: TWD10,000.00 (from TWD9,420.00)

Shareprice(29Sep):TWD6,895.00 | Up/downside:+45.0%

3Q26 preview: impressive rising ASP trend

  • We are confident in Jentech's product roadmap to drive its margins
  • Likely upward EPS revision trend in the following months
  • Reaffirming our Buy (1) call; raising 12-month TP to TWD10,000

What's new: Jentech released its unaudited August 2026 results today (29 September) after the market close, due to recent share price volatility. We maintain our positive view on its ongoing product-upgrade roadmap and expect the rising ASP trend to continue in the coming years, underpinning its revenue and margin expansion. We reaffirm our Buy (1) call (see our flash, 3Q26 preview: stronger-than-expected spec upgrades, 18 September).

What's the impact: 3Q26 results preview likely to be a beat. We forecast Jentech to record an all-time high quarterly revenue of TWD9.65bn (+32.7% QoQ; +90.4% YoY) in 3Q26. We now expect its 3Q26 EPS to be TWD22.77 (previously TWD17.67) vs. the Bloomberg consensus forecast of TWD20.37, mainly on a stronger-than-expected gross margin of 51.0% (previously 50.5%), an all-time quarterly high (vs. the Bloomberg consensus of 48.7%). We also expect a 3Q26 operating margin of 42.0% (previously 32.4%), an all-time quarterly high vs. the Bloomberg consensus of 39.0%, on ASP increases, a better product mix and operating efficiency. For 4Q26, we forecast revenue of TWD10.6bn (+10.1% QoQ) vs. the Bloomberg consensus forecast of TWD10.4bn and expect the gross margin to further expand to 52.3% (previously 51.2%). Jentech announced an unaudited August pre-tax income of TWD1.36bn (+100% YoY), net income of TWD1.08bn (+101% YoY) and EPS of TWD7.35 (+95% YoY).

Promising rising ASP trend given higher TDP and warpage concerns.

Due to rising thermal design power (TDP) and warpage risk, we expect rising revenue contribution from removable lids in 2027, with these being implemented in Vera Rubin and Rubin Ultra from 1Q27E to prevent warpage and increase thermal efficiency. We expect removable lids to be adopted largely in the next 2-3 years by both GPU and ASIC clients. We raise our 2026-28E EPS by 1-16%, mainly on our more aggressive revenue and gross and operating-margin assumptions.

What we recommend: We reiterate our Buy (1) call and raise the 12M TP to TWD10,000 (from TWD9,420), still based on a target PER of 73x (vs. its past-3-year PER range of 16-53x) applied to our 1-year forward EPS forecast (4Q26E-3Q27E). Downside risks: weaker-than-expected global AI server demand and slower-than-expected thermal spec upgrades.

How we differ: Our 2027-28E EPS are 14-21% above the Bloomberg consensus, likely as we are more aggressive in our revenue and gross and operating-margin assumptions.

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Helen Chien (886) 2 8758 6254

helen.chien@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Neil Teng, CFA (886) 2 8758 6256 neil.teng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change - 7.9 13.3
Net profit change 1.2 12.5 15.5
Core EPS (FD) change 1.2 12.5 15.5

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

12-month range 2,020.00-6,920.00
Market cap (USDbn) 31.79
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 200.35
Shares outstanding (m) 147
Major shareholder Chao family (40.0%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 32,852 65,059 97,916
Operating profit (m) 12,372 32,074 49,839
Net profit (m) 10,145 25,844 40,090
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 69.064 175.953 272.941
EPS change (%) 91.1 154.8 55.1
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 0.1 20.7 14.0
PER (x) 99.8 39.2 25.3
Dividend yield (%) 0.8 2.0 3.2
DPS 55.3 140.9 218.6
PBR (x) n.a. 20.9 14.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 75.6 30.3 19.5
ROE (%) 38.0 65.5 69.1

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Jentech: revenue and earnings forecasts revisions

(TWDm) 2026E - New 2026E - Previous 2026E - Change 2027E - New 2027E - Previous 2027E - Change 2028E - New 2028E - Previous 2028E - Change
Sales 32,852 32,852 0.0% 65,059 60,276 7.9% 97,916 86,449 13.3%
Gross profit 16,098 15,933 1.0% 35,782 31,946 12.0% 54,833 47,547 15.3%
Gross margin 49.0% 48.5% 0.5pp 55.0% 53.0% 2pp 56.0% 55.0% 1pp
Operating profit 12,372 12,221 1.2% 32,074 28,511 12.5% 49,839 43,138 15.5%
Operating margin 37.7% 37.2% 0.5pp 49.3% 47.3% 2pp 50.9% 49.9% 1pp
Net profit 10,145 10,023 1.2% 25,844 22,972 12.5% 40,090 34,696 15.5%
Net margin 30.9% 30.5% 0.4pp 39.7% 38.1% 1.6pp 40.9% 40.1% 0.8pp
Fully Diluted EPS (TWD) 69.06 68.24 1.2% 175.95 156.40 12.5% 272.94 236.22 15.5%

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Jentech: 3Q26 results preview

(TWDm) Daiwa's 3Q26 forecast Our previous forecast Differ Bloomberg consensus Differ
Revenue 9,650 9,650 0.0% 9,766 -1.2%
Gross profit 4,922 4,873 1.0% 4,756 3.5%
Operating profit 4,050 3,127 29.5% 3,811 6.3%
Profit before tax 4,137 3,214 28.7% 3,826 8.1%
Net profit 3,341 2,593 28.8% 3,047 9.6%
EPS 22.77 17.67 28.8% 20.37 11.8%
Margin
Gross margin 51.0% 50.5% 0.5pp 48.7% 2.3pp
Operating margin 42.0% 32.4% 9.6pp 39.0% 2.9pp
Pre-tax margin 42.9% 33.3% 9.6pp 39.2% 3.7pp
Net margin 34.6% 26.9% 7.7pp 31.2% 3.4pp

Source: Company, Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

Jentech: quarterly and annual P&L

(TWDm) 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26E 2026E - 4Q26E 2026E - 1Q27E 2026E - 2027E 2Q27E 2026E - 3Q27E 2026E - 4Q27E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2026E 2027E 2028E
Revenue 5,305 7,275 9,650 10,623 11,938 14,398 17,457 21,266 32,852 65,059 97,916
Gross profit 2,217 3,405 4,922 5,555 6,327 7,775 9,601 12,079 16,098 35,782 54,833
Operating profit 1,697 2,749 4,050 3,877 5,492 6,882 8,711 10,989 12,372 32,074 49,839
Pre-tax profit 1,776 2,841 4,137 3,914 5,524 6,915 8,744 11,022 12,667 32,204 49,949
Net profit 1,398 2,318 3,341 3,087 4,430 5,548 7,018 8,849 10,145 25,844 40,090
Basic EPS (TWD)* 9.53 15.80 22.77 21.04 30.19 37.81 47.83 60.31 69.14 176.13 273.21
Margin
Gross margin 41.8% 46.8% 51.0% 52.3% 53.0% 54.0% 55.0% 56.8% 49.0% 55.0% 56.0%
Operating margin 32.0% 37.8% 42.0% 36.5% 46.0% 47.8% 49.9% 51.7% 37.7% 49.3% 50.9%
Pre-tax margin 33.5% 39.1% 42.9% 36.8% 46.3% 48.0% 50.1% 51.8% 38.6% 49.5% 51.0%
Net margin 26.4% 31.9% 34.6% 29.1% 37.1% 38.5% 40.2% 41.6% 30.9% 39.7% 40.9%
YoY
Revenue 11.6% 40.4% 90.4% 101.5% 125.0% 97.9% 80.9% 100.2% 62.0% 98.0% 50.5%
Gross profit 3.8% 58.4% 149.1% 155.4% 185.4% 128.3% 95.1% 117.5% 90.9% 122.3% 53.2%
Operating profit 1.8% 61.8% 172.8% 135.2% 223.7% 150.3% 115.1% 183.5% 90.4% 159.2% 55.4%
Pre-tax profit 2.0% 114.1% 140.1% 115.4% 211.1% 143.4% 111.4% 181.6% 91.7% 154.2% 55.1%
Net profit 2.0% 106.8% 146.4% 116.0% 216.8% 139.3% 110.0% 186.6% 92.2% 154.8% 55.1%
QoQ
Revenue 0.6% 37.1% 32.7% 10.1% 12.4% 20.6% 21.3% 21.8%
Gross profit 1.9% 53.6% 44.5% 12.9% 13.9% 22.9% 23.5% 25.8%
Operating profit 2.9% 62.0% 47.3% -4.3% 41.7% 25.3% 26.6% 26.2%
Pre-tax profit -2.3% 60.0% 45.6% -5.4% 41.1% 25.2% 26.5% 26.1%
Net profit -2.2% 65.8% 44.1% -7.6% 43.5% 25.2% 26.5% 26.1%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts Note: * slightly differently from fully-diluted core EPS

Jentech: product mix

Jentech: 1-year forward PER

報告_Daiwa_健策3653_20260929_002

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Thermal heat spreader revenue growth (%) 10.4 73.8 21.2 25.7 58.2 69.6 119.1 57.2
Lead frame revenue growth (%) 51.0 2.3 (13.1) (5.8) (4.1) 48.9 30.2 0.0
Electronic Components revenue growth (%) 41.4 4.7 (43.5) 3.5 15.9 17.9 23.2 21.6

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Thermal heat spreader 3,533 6,139 7,444 9,358 14,804 25,106 55,002 86,471
Lead frame 2,326 2,380 2,068 1,948 1,868 2,780 3,620 3,620
Other Revenue 2,942 3,513 2,551 2,972 3,604 4,965 6,438 7,825
Total Revenue 8,801 12,032 12,063 14,278 20,276 32,852 65,059 97,916
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (6,043) (7,706) (8,020) (8,913) (11,842) (16,755) (29,277) (43,083)
SG&A (658) (838) (838) (969) (1,196) (2,740) (2,407) (3,035)
Other op.expenses (390) (454) (527) (598) (740) (986) (1,301) (1,958)
Operating profit 1,710 3,034 2,677 3,799 6,498 12,372 32,074 49,839
Net-interest inc./(exp.) (25) (16) 83 83 54 135 70 50
Assoc/forex/extraord./others (93) 351 25 364 54 160 60 60
Pre-tax profit 1,592 3,369 2,786 4,245 6,607 12,667 32,204 49,949
Tax (354) (712) (534) (830) (1,297) (2,486) (6,320) (9,802)
Min. int./pref. div./others (42) (42) 46 13 (33) (37) (40) (57)
Net profit (reported) 1,196 2,614 2,298 3,428 5,277 10,145 25,844 40,090
Net profit (adjusted) 1,196 2,614 2,298 3,428 5,277 10,145 25,844 40,090
EPS (reported)(TWD) 9.884 19.536 16.594 24.149 36.753 69.138 176.129 273.215
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 9.884 19.536 16.594 24.149 36.753 69.138 176.129 273.215
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 9.407 18.643 16.280 24.074 36.140 69.064 175.953 272.941
DPS (TWD) 6.000 11.660 9.850 14.500 22.000 55.310 140.904 218.572
EBIT 1,710 3,034 2,677 3,799 6,498 12,372 32,074 49,839
EBITDA 2,047 3,855 3,238 4,759 7,201 13,235 32,860 50,709

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 1,592 3,369 2,786 4,245 6,607 12,667 32,204 49,949
Depreciation and amortisation 430 469 536 597 648 703 726 810
Tax paid (230) (313) (848) (563) (887) (2,486) (6,320) (9,802)
Change in working capital (952) (840) 662 (1,211) (1,348) (4,464) (10,550) (11,441)
Other operational CF items 65 110 (78) (177) (246) (135) (70) (50)
Cash flow from operations 905 2,795 3,057 2,891 4,774 6,286 15,991 29,466
Capex (684) (805) (453) (613) (1,173) (1,200) (1,200) (1,500)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals (653) (21) 270 179 146 131 131 131
Other investing CF items (15) (279) (103) (2,129) 13 0 0 0
Cash flow from investing (1,352) (1,105) (287) (2,563) (1,014) (1,069) (1,069) (1,369)
Change in debt 770 (246) (222) (744) 5,197 0 0 0
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (733) (785) (1,662) (1,436) (2,072) (3,187) (8,116) (20,675)
Other financing CF items (14) (19) (33) (35) (48) 0 0 0
Cash flow from financing 22 (1,050) (1,917) (2,215) 3,077 (3,187) (8,116) (20,675)
Forex effect/others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change in cash (425) 640 853 (1,887) 6,837 2,029 6,805 7,422
Free cash flow 221 1,897 2,597 2,371 3,791 5,086 14,791 27,966

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 2,648 3,317 4,156 2,267 9,134 11,163 17,969 25,390
Inventory 3,359 3,596 2,481 3,062 3,810 5,619 9,444 14,013
Accounts receivable 2,373 2,730 2,713 4,115 5,538 9,058 17,654 26,783
Other current assets 70 43 62 51 85 85 85 85
Total current assets 8,450 9,686 9,411 9,495 18,567 25,925 45,151 66,270
Fixed assets 4,436 4,675 4,833 4,852 8,073 8,570 9,044 9,733
Goodwill & intangibles 12 10 13 12 14 14 14 14
Other non-current assets 623 1,407 1,588 4,104 1,315 1,315 1,315 1,315
Total assets 13,521 15,777 15,846 18,462 27,969 35,824 55,524 77,333
Short-term debt 773 1,743 397 0 0 0 0 0
Accounts payable 1,882 2,176 2,052 2,790 3,521 4,442 6,368 8,680
Other current liabilities 224 619 335 630 932 99 99 99
Total current liabilities 2,878 4,537 2,785 3,420 4,453 4,541 6,467 8,779
Long-term debt 437 432 348 5 5 5 5 5
Other non-current liabilities 2,194 350 375 379 445 445 445 445
Total liabilities 5,509 5,319 3,507 3,804 4,904 4,991 6,918 9,230
Share capital 1,223 1,368 1,408 1,429 1,467 1,467 1,467 1,467
Reserves/R.E./others 5,854 8,152 10,070 13,037 21,370 29,101 46,835 66,275
Shareholders' equity 7,078 9,520 11,478 14,466 22,837 30,569 48,302 67,742
Minority interests 934 938 860 192 227 264 304 361
Total equity & liabilities 13,521 15,777 15,846 18,462 27,969 35,824 55,524 77,333
EV 1,011,220 1,011,520 1,009,174 1,009,653 1,002,823 1,000,830 994,065 986,700
Net debt/(cash) (1,438) (1,143) (3,411) (2,262) (9,129) (11,158) (17,963) (25,385)
BVPS (TWD) 58.480 71.142 82.877 101.919 159.052 208.329 329.185 461.670

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 28.6 36.7 0.3 18.4 42.0 62.0 98.0 50.5
EBITDA (YoY) 30.6 88.3 (16.0) 47.0 51.3 83.8 148.3 54.3
Operating profit (YoY) 52.8 77.4 (11.8) 41.9 71.1 90.4 159.2 55.4
Net profit (YoY) 19.6 118.6 (12.1) 49.2 54.0 92.2 154.8 55.1
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) 14.3 98.2 (12.7) 47.9 50.1 91.1 154.8 55.1
Gross-profit margin 31.3 36.0 33.5 37.6 41.6 49.0 55.0 56.0
EBITDA margin 23.3 32.0 26.8 33.3 35.5 40.3 50.5 51.8
Operating-profit margin 19.4 25.2 22.2 26.6 32.0 37.7 49.3 50.9
Net profit margin 13.6 21.7 19.1 24.0 26.0 30.9 39.7 40.9
ROAE 17.7 31.5 21.9 26.4 28.3 38.0 65.5 69.1
ROAA 9.6 17.8 14.5 20.0 22.7 31.8 56.6 60.3
ROCE 20.1 27.8 20.8 27.4 34.4 45.9 80.7 85.4
ROIC 23.6 30.1 23.7 28.7 39.7 59.2 n.a n.a
Net debt to equity n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Effective tax rate 22.2 21.1 19.2 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6
Accounts receivable (days) 87.2 77.4 82.4 87.3 86.9 81.1 74.9 82.8
Current ratio (x) 2.9 2.1 3.4 2.8 4.2 5.7 7.0 7.5
Net interest cover (x) 67.9 183.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Net dividend payout 60.7 59.7 59.4 60.0 59.9 80.0 80.0 80.0
Free cash flow yield 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.5 2.8

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Established in 1987, Jentech Precision Industrial is a leading global thermal-solutions and precisionmetal components maker that serves leading semiconductor and server vendors. As of 2025, its revenue comprised thermal heat spreaders (73%), lead frames (9%), electronic components (7%), communication connectors (1%) and others (10%).

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Risks Management Analystcomments
Executive/board quality 1 The CEO and chairperson of Jentech is the same individual, Mr. Zhao Zongxin. We note that Mr. Zhao has extensive long-term experience in senior management within the company and across its subsidiaries, which is a positive sign from an executive perspective.
G Capital management 1 Between 2021-25, Jentech has maintained a dividend payout ratio of around 60%, which we consider reasonable for balancing shareholder returns with reinvestment needs. This consistent approach reflects prudent capital management discipline and a stable financial policy.
Related party & transaction 1 The company engages in transactions with subsidiaries primarily for normal operational purposes, such as purchase of materials and components. The proportion of these costs to overall COGS remains low, and no irregular or non-transparent transactions were identified.
E Supplychain management 1 Jentech has a structured procurement process, including supplier evaluation, signature of procurement contracts, and requirements for compliance with environmental and safety regulations. The company also diversifies sourcing channels (major suppliers from Taiwan, Japan, Europe, Korea, USA) and maintains stable supply relationships, with clear communication protocols for prompt response to supplier issues. This reflects strong supply chain transparency and robust quality control measures.
E Datasecurity 1 The company has established an information security team, conducts annual internal control audits, and implements procedures such as asset inventory, network security monitoring, virus prevention systems, firewall management, and access rights control. Backup systems and disaster recovery mechanisms are in place, allowing the company to restore information system operations and minimize damage during major incidents or equipment failures.

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 29 May 2026

Source: Daiwa, Company