PDF 原檔：報告_Citi_金像電2368_健鼎3044_20260811_original.pdf
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| 檔名 | size | 分類 | 親眼所見內容 |
|---|---|---|---|
260811_citi_GCE-tripod_001.png |
148KB | 真資料圖 | Figure 4/5：GCE 12M 遠期 P/E 估值帶（左，4.6x-23.8x）與 P/B 估值帶（右，含 ROE） |
260811_citi_GCE-tripod_002.png |
40KB | 真資料圖 | Figure 9：Tripod 12M 遠期 P/E 估值帶（7.2x-13.8x） |
260811_citi_GCE-tripod_003.png |
66KB | 真資料圖 | Figure 10：Tripod 遠期 P/B 估值帶與 ROE |
260811_citi_GCE-tripod_004.png |
108KB | 真資料圖 | GCE Bull/Base/Bear 目標價圖：NT$1,700/1,630/800，現價 NT$964 |
260811_citi_GCE-tripod_005.png |
172KB | 真資料圖 | Tripod Bull/Base/Bear 目標價圖：NT$800/700/400，現價 NT$441.50，含 Base 假設（26/27E 營收 YoY +38%/+17%、GM 29.8%/31.4%） |
260811_citi_GCE-tripod_006.png |
268KB | 真資料圖 | GCE 與 Tripod 評等/目標價沿革圖與變動明細表（2023-08 至 2026-08） |
260811_citi_GCE-tripod_007.png |
245KB | 真資料圖 | GCE 與 Tripod Short-Term View / Catalyst Watch 歷史紀錄圖表 |
圖片清單已於 2026-08-13 逐張 Read 驗證，本份報告 7 張候選圖全數為真資料圖，無裝飾/文字卡。
原始內容
Prepared for Kevin Lu
a
11 Aug 2026 12:30:07 ET │ 21 pages
Taiwan PCB & Laminates
CCL price hike not a concern; Buys on Gold Circuit and Tripod
CITI'S TAKE
PCB sector has suffered from concerns over GM pressure from CCL price hikes from June. As per our discussion with Gold Circuit (GCE) and Tripod, we believe PCB makers will be able to raise prices, as customers now would need to leverage PCB makers' relationships with CCL suppliers in order to secure more CCL supplies. While GCE suffered from the pressure in 2Q26, the company would hike the prices to its customers in 3Q26 as Tripod does. We see both names benefitting from favorable product mix and price hikes in the coming quarters. Buy on GCE (TP NT$1,630) and Tripod (TP NT$700).
GCE: 2Q26 GM miss on CCL price hike GCE's 2Q26 sales (+26% QoQ) were driven by server segment (+36% QoQ), while networking segment declined 6% QoQ. 2Q26 GM posted 34.7% (-0.2ppt QoQ), missing Citi/consensus forecasts by 2.0ppt/1.4ppt due to time lag to reflect CCL price hike, rising depreciation on new capacity ramp and likely less networking sales. OPEX ratio was 0.2% higher QoQ, due to more employee profit-sharing expense. Despite GM/OPM miss, thanks to lower tax rate, overall 2Q earnings was in line with Citi forecast and 4% higher than consensus forecasts. Thailand plant turned profitable in 2Q26, as per mgmt.
GCE: 3Q26 outlook: ASIC demand ramping up Backed by higher production value on increasing ASP and new capacity added (especially in Thailand plant), we now forecast 3Q26 sales to grow 16% QoQ. Despite the market's concern over GM pressure from CCL price hike, mgmt. indicated customers have agreed with the PCB price hikes and believe GM wouldn't be negatively impacted. Besides, ASIC demand ramp and better pricing would help more than offset the rising depreciation and FX headwinds, driving its GM profile in 3Q26, as per mgmt. For GM, we now forecast 3Q26E GM of 36.6% (+1.9ppt QoQ). Also, the company lowered full-year tax rate guidance from 32% to 29% due to receipt of tax benefits.
GCE: New ASIC demand likely to ramp in 4Q26; preparing for HDI For its new AI ASIC business, the company now sees good chance to secure the project; production might start in 4Q26 at the earliest. For HDI, the company plans to invest in new capacity, targeting ramp-up in 2H27. Mgmt. is confident in its HDI capabilities, given similar level of technological complexity to 800G switch products. For new capacity ramped in 2027, Thailand and Suzhou plants are planned to ramp in 2H27.
| Current | Fiscal Year | Next Fiscal Year | Next Fiscal Year | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rating | Short- Term | Target Price | EPS | EPS | |||||||||||||
| Company | Ticker | Ccy | Price | MktCap (M) | Date& Time | Old | New | View Old | New | ESPR(%) | Div Yld (%) | ETR(%) | Last Rpt Yr | Old | New | Old | New |
| Gold Circuit Electronics | 2368.TW | NT$ | 964.00 | 504,107 | 11Aug 13:30 | 1 | nc | - 1,740.00 | 1,630.00 | 69.1 | 2.0 | 71.1 | Dec-25 | 39.21 | 37.24 | 66.00 | 64.39 |
| Tripod Technology | 3044.TW | NT$ | 441.50 | 232,055 | 11Aug 13:30 | 1 | nc | - 666.00 | 700.00 | 58.6 | 4.6 | 63.1 | Dec-25 | 28.45 | 31.17 | 38.41 | 39.76 |
| 1=Buy,2=Neutral,3=Sell,H=HighRisk | 1=Buy,2=Neutral,3=Sell,H=HighRisk | 1=Buy,2=Neutral,3=Sell,H=HighRisk | 1=Buy,2=Neutral,3=Sell,H=HighRisk | 1=Buy,2=Neutral,3=Sell,H=HighRisk | ESPR=ExpectedSharePriceReturn, ETR=ExpectedTotalReturn, nc=nochange | ESPR=ExpectedSharePriceReturn, ETR=ExpectedTotalReturn, nc=nochange | ESPR=ExpectedSharePriceReturn, ETR=ExpectedTotalReturn, nc=nochange | ESPR=ExpectedSharePriceReturn, ETR=ExpectedTotalReturn, nc=nochange | ESPR=ExpectedSharePriceReturn, ETR=ExpectedTotalReturn, nc=nochange | ESPR=ExpectedSharePriceReturn, ETR=ExpectedTotalReturn, nc=nochange | ESPR=ExpectedSharePriceReturn, ETR=ExpectedTotalReturn, nc=nochange | ESPR=ExpectedSharePriceReturn, ETR=ExpectedTotalReturn, nc=nochange | ESPR=ExpectedSharePriceReturn, ETR=ExpectedTotalReturn, nc=nochange | ESPR=ExpectedSharePriceReturn, ETR=ExpectedTotalReturn, nc=nochange | ESPR=ExpectedSharePriceReturn, ETR=ExpectedTotalReturn, nc=nochange | ESPR=ExpectedSharePriceReturn, ETR=ExpectedTotalReturn, nc=nochange | ESPR=ExpectedSharePriceReturn, ETR=ExpectedTotalReturn, nc=nochange |
| Source: Citi Research | Source: Citi Research | Source: Citi Research | Source: Citi Research | Source: Citi Research | ^CatalystWatch | ^CatalystWatch | ^CatalystWatch | ^CatalystWatch | ^CatalystWatch | ^CatalystWatch | ^CatalystWatch | ^CatalystWatch | ^CatalystWatch | ^CatalystWatch | ^CatalystWatch | ^CatalystWatch | ^CatalystWatch |
See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations.
Jack Chen AC
+886-2-8726-9091 jack1.chen@citi.com
Laura (Chia Yi) Chen
+886-2-8726-9090
laura.cy.chen@citi.com
Nicholas Lai +886-2-8726-9093
nicholas.lai@citi.com
2
Prepared for Kevin Lu
Earnings Estimates
| Last Reported Year | Last Reported Year | Last Reported Year | Last Reported Year | Current Fiscal Year | Current Fiscal Year | Current Fiscal Year | Current Fiscal Year | Current Fiscal Year | Next Fiscal Year | Next Fiscal Year | Next Fiscal Year | Next Fiscal Year | Next Fiscal Year | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CompanyName | Ticker | Rpt Year Currency | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q | FY0 | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q | FY1 | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q | FY2 | |
| Gold Circuit Electronics | 2368.TW | Dec-25 | NT$ | 3.46 | 3.35 | 6.38 | 5.79 | 18.98 | 6.62 | 9.09 | 10.59 | 10.95 | 37.24 | 13.74 | 15.69 | 17.48 | 17.48 | 64.39 |
| Old | Dec-25 | NT$ | 3.46 | 3.35 | 6.38 | 5.79 | 18.98 | 6.88 | 9.45 | 11.48 | 11.39 | 39.21 | 13.92 | 15.95 | 18.07 | 18.06 | 66.00 | |
| Tripod Technology | 3044.TW | Dec-25 | NT$ | 4.48 | 4.65 | 5.62 | 4.70 | 19.45 | 5.61 | 7.41 | 9.36 | 8.79 | 31.17 | 7.85 | 9.67 | 11.12 | 11.12 | 39.76 |
| Old | Dec-25 | NT$ | 4.48 | 4.65 | 5.62 | 4.70 | 19.45 | 5.61 | 7.12 | 8.12 | 7.61 | 28.45 | 7.59 | 9.44 | 10.99 | 10.40 | 38.41 | |
| Source: Citi Research | Source: Citi Research | Source: Citi Research | Source: Citi Research | Source: Citi Research | Source: Citi Research | Source: Citi Research | Source: Citi Research | Source: Citi Research | Source: Citi Research | Source: Citi Research | Source: Citi Research | Source: Citi Research | Source: Citi Research | Source: Citi Research | Source: Citi Research | Source: Citi Research | Source: Citi Research | Source: Citi Research |
Prepared for Kevin Lu
Tripod: 2Q26 GM beat on enhanced product mix Tripod's 2Q26 sales (+19% QoQ) were driven by the server segment (+40% QoQ), followed by auto (+13% QoQ) and memory (+5% Qo). 2Q26 GM expanded 3.6ppt QoQ to 30.1%, beating Citi/consensus forecasts by 1.8ppt/2.8ppt. Mgmt. attributed GM upbeat to enhanced product mix and price hike to reflect inflation. OP levels also saw better leverage QoQ, beating Citi/consensus forecasts by 14%/18%, while high tax rate was more of a one-off. Overall earnings were still a beat by 4%/8% vs Citi/consensus forecasts.
Tripod: 3Q26 outlook: server continuing picking up As teir-1 PCB makers focus more on leading AI server boards, Tripod sees more outflowing demand for either general-purpose server mainboard or ASIC CPU mainboard. The company expects its 3Q26 would be driven by continued server demand and price hike (especially for auto customers). Thus, we now forecast Tripod's 3Q26E sales to grow 13% QoQ. For GM, we forecast 3Q26E GM of 31.2% (+1.1ppt QoQ). For memory demand, the company now sees momentum gaining in 2H26 vs 1H26.
Tripod: CCL price hike not an issue As per management's observation, they don't think CCL price hike would become an issue for its GM profile, as customers in need are fully aware of the CCL shortage and would accept PCB price hikes. Besides, customers now would need to leverage PCB makers' relationships with CCL suppliers in order to secure more CCL supplies, favoring those PCB names with hightiering and large scale. For its CCL supply, mgmt. thinks its supply is tight now but has not seen the shortage constraint its 3Q26 operation. For capacity expansion, the company is ramping its Vietnam plant and is likely to see limited contribution in 2H26, and is expanding its capacity in Hubei plants.
Earnings revisions; GCE's TP slightly cut to NT$1,630; Tripod's TP lifted to NT$700; Buy on both names For GCE, we adjust our 2026/27/28E earnings by 1%/+2%/+3% to factor in short-term CCL price hike impact but lower tax rate. We cut our GCE TP to NT$1,630 (25x 2027E EPS) from NT$1,740 (26x 2027E EPS). For Tripod, we increase our 2026/27E/28E earnings by +10%/+4%/+4% to factor in its stronger GM profile. We raise our DCF-based Tripod TP to NT$700 (implied 18x 2027E) from NT$666 (implied 17x 2027E EPS). We see both names benefitting from favorable product mix and price hikes in the coming quarters. We rate both Tripod and GCE Buy.
Figure 1. GCE - 2Q26 Results
| (NT$mn) | 2Q26 Actual | 1Q26 Actual | Q/Q | 2Q25 Actual | Y/Y | 2Q26 Citi | Diff. | 2Q26 Cons. | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 24,279 | 19,313 | 26% | 13,853 | 75% | 24,427 | -1% | 23,182 | 5% |
| Gross profit | 8,413 | 6,722 | 25% | 4,095 | 105% | 8,943 | -6% | 8,349 | 1% |
| Gross margin | 34.7% | 34.8% | -0.2 ppt | 29.6% | +5.1 ppt | 36.6% | -2.0 ppt | 36.0% | -1.4 ppt |
| Op. profit | 6,418 | 5,185 | 24% | 2,868 | 124% | 6,997 | -8% | 6,516 | -2% |
| OPmargin | 26.4% | 26.8% | -0.4 ppt | 20.7% | +5.7 ppt | 28.6% | -2.2 ppt | 28.1% | -1.7 ppt |
| Net income | 4,783 | 3,484 | 37% | 1,694 | 182% | 4,784 | 0% | 4,413 | 8% |
| EPS(NT$) | 9.09 | 6.62 | 37% | 3.35 | 171% | 9.45 | -4% | 8.82 | 3% |
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Citi Research Estimates, Company Reports, Bloomberg
Prepared for Kevin Lu
Figure 2. GCE - Earnings Revisions
| 3Q26E | 3Q26E | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | 4Q26E | 4Q26E | 2026E | 2026E | 2026E | 2027E | 2027E | 2027E | 2028E | 2028E | 2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$mn) | New | Old | Chg. | New | Old | Chg. | New | Old | Chg. | New | Old | Chg. | New | Old | Chg. |
| Sales | 28,227 | 27,807 | 2% | 28,190 | 27,499 | 3% | 100,009 | 99,046 | 1% | 146,911 | 146,911 | 0% | 192,448 | 192,448 | 0% |
| Sequential growth (%) | 16% | 14% | 0% | -1% | 67% | 65% | 47% | 48% | 31% | 31% | |||||
| Gross profit | 10,325 | 10,592 | -3% | 10,561 | 10,555 | 0% | 36,021 | 36,812 | -2% | 58,893 | 59,420 | -1% | 79,978 | 79,978 | 0% |
| Opex | 2,324 | 2,220 | 5% | 2,349 | 2,250 | 4% | 8,207 | 7,953 | 3% | 11,266 | 11,096 | 2% | 13,995 | 13,826 | 1% |
| Operating profit | 8,000 | 8,373 | -4% | 8,212 | 8,306 | -1% | 27,815 | 28,860 | -4% | 47,627 | 48,324 | -1% | 65,983 | 66,152 | 0% |
| Pre-tax profit | 8,023 | 8,420 | -5% | 8,234 | 8,352 | -1% | 27,644 | 28,894 | -4% | 47,747 | 48,646 | -2% | 66,143 | 66,474 | 0% |
| Net income | 5,576 | 5,810 | -4% | 5,764 | 5,763 | 0% | 19,607 | 19,840 | -1% | 33,900 | 33,399 | 2% | 46,961 | 45,623 | 3% |
| EPS(NT$) | 10.59 | 11.48 | -8% | 10.95 | 11.39 | -4% | 37.24 | 39.21 | -5% | 64.39 | 66.00 | -2% | 89.20 | 90.16 | -1% |
| Gross margin (%) | 36.6% | 38.1% | -1.5 ppt | 37.5% | 38.4% | -0.9 ppt | 36.0% | 37.2% | -1.1 ppt | 40.1% | 40.4% | -0.4 ppt | 41.6% | 41.6% | 0.0 ppt |
| Opexratio (%) | 8.2% | 8.0% | +0.3 ppt | 8.3% | 8.2% | +0.2 ppt | 8.2% | 8.0% | +0.2 ppt | 7.7% | 7.6% | +0.1 ppt | 7.3% | 7.2% | +0.1 ppt |
| Operating margin (%) | 28.3% | 30.1% | -1.8 ppt | 29.1% | 30.2% | -1.1 ppt | 27.8% | 29.1% | -1.3 ppt | 32.4% | 32.9% | -0.5 ppt | 34.3% | 34.4% | -0.1 ppt |
| Net margin (%) | 19.8% | 20.9% | -1.1 ppt | 20.4% | 21.0% | -0.5 ppt | 19.6% | 20.0% | -0.4 ppt | 23.1% | 22.7% | +0.3 ppt | 24.4% | 23.7% | +0.7 ppt |
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Citi Research Estimates
Figure 3. GCE - Forecast Summary
| GCE (NT$ in Mn, year-end Dec) | 1Q | 2QE 2026 | 3QE | 4QE | 1QE | 2QE 2027 | 3QE | 4QE | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 19,313 | 24,279 | 28,227 | 28,190 | 32,684 | 36,210 | 39,108 | 38,909 | 18,991 | 23,398 | 26,607 | 32,785 | 30,044 | 38,952 | 60,004 | 100,009 | 146,911 | 192,448 |
| COGS | -12,590 | -15,866 | -17,903 | -17,629 | -19,962 | -21,808 | -23,195 | -23,054 | -16,500 | -18,108 | -20,236 | -24,057 | -22,320 | -27,556 | -40,321 | -63,988 | -88,018 | -112,470 |
| Depreciation costs | -412 | -502 | -613 | -777 | -981 | -1,151 | -1,261 | -1,373 | -754 | -615 | -653 | -743 | -821 | -960 | -1,195 | -2,304 | -4,766 | -5,948 |
| Gross Profit | 6,722 | 8,413 | 10,325 | 10,561 | 12,722 | 14,403 | 15,913 | 15,855 | 2,491 | 5,291 | 6,371 | 8,728 | 7,724 | 11,396 | 19,683 | 36,021 | 58,893 | 79,978 |
| Operating Expense | -1,538 | -1,996 | -2,324 | -2,349 | -2,559 | -2,798 | -2,982 | -2,928 | -1,821 | -2,217 | -2,249 | -2,691 | -2,588 | -3,329 | -5,640 | -8,207 | -11,266 | -13,995 |
| SG&A expenses | -1,186 | -1,525 | -1,778 | -1,804 | -1,961 | -2,136 | -2,307 | -2,296 | -1,285 | -1,575 | -1,673 | -1,948 | -1,866 | -2,342 | -4,430 | -6,293 | -8,700 | -10,777 |
| R&Dexpenses | -343 | -461 | -536 | -536 | -588 | -652 | -665 | -623 | -471 | -533 | -623 | -718 | -803 | -974 | -1,256 | -1,876 | -2,527 | -3,180 |
| EBIT | 5,185 | 6,418 | 8,000 | 8,212 | 10,163 | 11,605 | 12,931 | 12,928 | 669 | 3,074 | 4,123 | 6,037 | 5,136 | 8,067 | 14,043 | 27,815 | 47,627 | 65,983 |
| Net Interest Income | 13 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 20 | 20 | -213 | -147 | -51 | -27 | 78 | 78 | 55 | 43 | 70 | 110 |
| Net Other Income | -110 | -128 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 12 | -186 | -229 | -23 | 379 | 3 | 345 | 75 | -213 | 50 | 50 |
| Pre-Tax Profit | 5,088 | 6,299 | 8,023 | 8,234 | 10,191 | 11,632 | 12,964 | 12,960 | 270 | 2,698 | 4,049 | 6,388 | 5,218 | 8,490 | 14,173 | 27,644 | 47,747 | 66,143 |
| Tax | -1,604 | -1,516 | -2,447 | -2,470 | -2,955 | -3,373 | -3,760 | -3,758 | -140 | -631 | -1,122 | -1,820 | -1,689 | -2,875 | -4,567 | -8,037 | -13,847 | -19,181 |
| Net Profit | 3,484 | 4,783 | 5,576 | 5,764 | 7,236 | 8,259 | 9,204 | 9,201 | 130 | 2,067 | 2,927 | 4,568 | 3,529 | 5,616 | 9,607 | 19,607 | 33,900 | 46,961 |
| EPS (NT$) | 6.62 | 9.09 | 10.59 | 10.95 | 13.74 | 15.69 | 17.48 | 17.48 | 0.24 | 3.81 | 5.40 | 8.80 | 7.23 | 11.11 | 18.98 | 37.24 | 64.39 | 89.20 |
| Sequential Growth (%) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Networking | 12% | -6% | 11% | -3% | 34% | -2% | 10% | 0% | -30% | 18% | 3% | 30% | -25% | 12% | 59% | 78% | 40% | 27% |
| Server | 21% | 36% | 16% | 1% | 15% | 13% | 8% | 0% | 8% | 28% | 11% | 48% | -3% | 40% | 67% | 73% | 51% | 34% |
| NB | -2% | 26% | 32% | -9% | -10% | 12% | 14% | -2% | -8% | 12% | 25% | -16% | -13% | -15% | 25% | 15% | 17% | 0% |
| Others | 18% | -16% | 33% | -12% | 1% | 12% | 1% | -12% | -8% | 41% | 28% | -32% | 3% | 83% | -29% | 4% | 6% | 0% |
| Margins (%) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Gross Margin | 34.8% | 34.7% | 36.6% | 37.5% | 38.9% | 39.8% | 40.7% | 40.7% | 13.1% | 22.6% | 23.9% | 26.6% | 25.7% | 29.3% | 32.8% | 36.0% | 40.1% | 41.6% |
| Operating Margin | 26.8% | 26.4% | 28.3% | 29.1% | 31.1% | 32.0% | 33.1% | 33.2% | 3.5% | 13.1% | 15.5% | 18.4% | 17.1% | 20.7% | 23.4% | 27.8% | 32.4% | 34.3% |
| Net Margin | 18.0% | 19.7% | 19.8% | 20.4% | 22.1% | 22.8% | 23.5% | 23.6% | 0.7% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 13.9% | 11.7% | 14.4% | 16.0% | 19.6% | 23.1% | 24.4% |
| Sequential Growth (%) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 18% | 26% | 16% | 0% | 16% | 11% | 8% | -1% | -8% | 23% | 14% | 23% | -8% | 30% | 54% | 67% | 47% | 31% |
| Gross Profit | 22% | 25% | 23% | 2% | 20% | 13% | 10% | 0% | -17% | 112% | 20% | 37% | -12% | 48% | 73% | 83% | 63% | 36% |
| EBIT | 30% | 24% | 25% | 3% | 24% | 14% | 11% | 0% | -13% | 359% | 34% | 46% | -15% | 57% | 74% | 98% | 71% | 39% |
| Net Profit | 19% | 37% | 17% | 3% | 26% | 14% | 11% | 0% | -43% | 1493% | 42% | 56% | -23% | 59% | 71% | 104% | 73% | 39% |
| EPS | 14% | 17% | 3% | 26% | 14% | 11% | 0% | -43% | 1490% | 42% | 63% | -18% | 54% | 71% | 96% | |||
| 37% | 73% | 39% |
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Citi Research Estimates, Company Reports
Prepared for Kevin Lu
Figure 6. Tripod - 2Q26 Results
| (NT$mn) | 2Q26 Actual | 1Q26 Actual | Q/Q | 2Q25 Actual | Y/Y | 2Q26 Citi | Diff. | 2Q26 Cons. | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 24,857 | 20,964 | 19% | 17,903 | 39% | 24,261 | 2% | 24,236 | 3% |
| Gross profit | 7,479 | 5,559 | 35% | 4,693 | 59% | 6,865 | 9% | 6,612 | 13% |
| Gross margin | 30.1% | 26.5% | +3.6 ppt | 26.2% | +3.9 ppt | 28.3% | +1.8 ppt | 27.3% | +2.8 ppt |
| Op. profit | 5,585 | 3,846 | 45% | 3,224 | 73% | 4,914 | 14% | 4,715 | 18% |
| OPmargin | 22.5% | 18.3% | +4.1 ppt | 18.0% | +4.5 ppt | 20.3% | +2.2 ppt | 19.5% | +3.0 ppt |
| Net income | 3,896 | 2,946 | 32% | 2,444 | 59% | 3,741 | 4% | 3,618 | 8% |
| EPS(NT$) | 7.41 | 5.61 | 32% | 4.65 | 59% | 7.12 | 4% | 6.94 | 7% |
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Citi Research Estimates, Company Reports, Bloomberg
Figure 7. Tripod - Earnings Revisions
| 3Q26E | 3Q26E | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | 4Q26E | 4Q26E | 2026E | 2026E | 2026E | 2027E | 2027E | 2027E | 2028E | 2028E | 2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$mn) | New | Old | diff | New | Old | diff | New | Old | diff | New | Old | diff | New | Old | diff |
| Sales | 28,047 | 26,245 | 7% | 27,220 | 24,658 | 10% | 101,089 | 96,129 | 5% | 118,005 | 114,917 | 3% | 137,948 | 134,338 | 3% |
| Sequential growth (%) | 13% | 8% | -3% | -6% | 38% | 31% | 17% | 20% | 17% | 17% | |||||
| Gross profit | 8,757 | 7,668 | 14% | 8,345 | 7,240 | 15% | 30,139 | 27,332 | 10% | 37,023 | 35,927 | 3% | 45,423 | 43,984 | 3% |
| Opex | 2,168 | 2,030 | 7% | 2,186 | 1,983 | 10% | 7,961 | 7,677 | 4% | 9,216 | 9,090 | 1% | 10,595 | 10,449 | 1% |
| Operating profit | 6,589 | 5,638 | 17% | 6,158 | 5,257 | 17% | 22,177 | 19,655 | 13% | 27,807 | 26,837 | 4% | 34,828 | 33,535 | 4% |
| Pre-tax profit | 6,835 | 5,930 | 15% | 6,415 | 5,554 | 15% | 23,037 | 20,787 | 11% | 29,026 | 28,042 | 4% | 36,027 | 34,720 | 4% |
| Net income | 4,921 | 4,269 | 15% | 4,619 | 3,999 | 15% | 16,382 | 14,956 | 10% | 20,899 | 20,190 | 4% | 25,939 | 24,998 | 4% |
| EPS(NT$) | 9.36 | 8.12 | 15% | 8.79 | 7.61 | 15% | 31.17 | 28.45 | 10% | 39.76 | 38.41 | 4% | 49.35 | 47.56 | 4% |
| Gross margin (%) | 31.2% | 29.2% | +2.0 ppt | 30.7% | 29.4% | +1.3 ppt | 29.8% | 28.4% | +1.4 ppt | 31.4% | 31.3% | +0.1 ppt | 32.9% | 32.7% | +0.2 ppt |
| Opexratio (%) | 7.7% | 7.7% | -0.0 ppt | 8.0% | 8.0% | -0.0 ppt | 7.9% | 8.0% | -0.1 ppt | 7.8% | 7.9% | -0.1 ppt | 7.7% | 7.8% | -0.1 ppt |
| Operating margin (%) | 23.5% | 21.5% | +2.0 ppt | 22.6% | 21.3% | +1.3 ppt | 21.9% | 20.4% | +1.5 ppt | 23.6% | 23.4% | +0.2 ppt | 25.2% | 25.0% | +0.3 ppt |
| Net margin (%) | 17.5% | 16.3% | +1.3 ppt | 17.0% | 16.2% | +0.8 ppt | 16.2% | 15.6% | +0.6 ppt | 17.7% | 17.6% | +0.1 ppt | 18.8% | 18.6% | +0.2 ppt |
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Citi Research Estimates
Prepared for Kevin Lu
Figure 8. Tripod - Forecast summary
| Tripod (NT$ in Mn, year-end Dec) | 1Q | 2QE 2026 | 3QE | 4QE | 1QE | 2QE 2027 | 3QE | 4QE | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E 2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 20,964 | 24,857 | 28,047 | 27,220 | 26,152 | 28,957 | 32,484 | 30,411 | 52,106 | 54,451 | 55,548 | 63,000 | 65,784 | 58,862 | 65,804 | 73,399 | 101,089 | 118,005 | 137,948 |
| COGS | -15,406 | -17,378 | -19,291 | -18,876 | -18,494 | -19,988 | -22,215 | -20,285 | -42,341 | -43,185 | -44,397 | -51,101 | -53,979 | -47,476 | -50,516 | -54,407 | -70,950 | -80,982 | -92,525 |
| GrossProfit | 5,559 | 7,479 | 8,757 | 8,345 | 7,658 | 8,970 | 10,269 | 10,126 | 9,764 | 11,266 | 11,150 | 11,899 | 11,805 | 11,387 | 15,288 | 18,992 | 30,139 | 37,023 | 45,423 |
| Operating Expense | -1,713 | -1,894 | -2,168 | -2,186 | -2,223 | -2,226 | -2,461 | -2,306 | -4,343 | -4,495 | -4,576 | -5,286 | -5,036 | -4,763 | -5,557 | -6,080 | -7,961 | -9,216 | -10,595 |
| SG&Aexpenses | -1,650 | -1,825 | -2,044 | -2,067 | -2,092 | -2,081 | -2,299 | -2,154 | -4,160 | -4,290 | -4,352 | -5,075 | -4,796 | -4,513 | -5,275 | -5,774 | -7,586 | -8,626 | -9,906 |
| R&D expenses | -63 | -69 | -123 | -120 | -131 | -145 | -162 | -152 | -183 | -205 | -224 | -211 | -240 | -250 | -282 | -307 | -375 | -590 | -690 |
| EBIT | 3,846 | 5,585 | 6,589 | 6,158 | 5,435 | 6,744 | 7,808 | 7,820 | 5,422 | 6,771 | 6,574 | 6,613 | 6,769 | 6,624 | 9,731 | 12,912 | 22,177 | 27,807 | 34,828 |
| Net Interest Income | 212 | 131 | 160 | 170 | 208 | 226 | 225 | 215 | 163 | 183 | 188 | 211 | 73 | 477 | 916 | 742 | 674 | 875 | 855 |
| Net Other Income | 49 | -35 | 86 | 86 | 86 | 86 | 86 | 86 | 941 | 844 | 995 | 674 | 983 | 977 | 350 | 344 | 186 | 344 | 344 |
| Pre-Tax Profit | 4,107 | 5,681 | 6,835 | 6,415 | 5,729 | 7,056 | 8,119 | 8,121 | 6,525 | 7,798 | 7,757 | 7,498 | 7,825 | 8,077 | 10,996 | 13,998 | 23,037 | 29,026 | 36,027 |
| Tax | 1,161 | 1,785 | 1,914 | 1,796 | 1,604 | 1,976 | 2,273 | 2,274 | -1,587 | -1,761 | -1,631 | -1,639 | -1,624 | -2,015 | -2,614 | -3,773 | -6,655 | -8,127 | -10,088 |
| Net Profit | 2,946 | 3,896 | 4,921 | 4,619 | 4,125 | 5,080 | 5,846 | 5,847 | 4,938 | 6,037 | 6,126 | 5,858 | 6,200 | 6,062 | 8,382 | 10,225 | 16,382 | 20,899 | 25,939 |
| EPS (NT$) | 5.61 | 7.41 | 9.36 | 8.79 | 7.85 | 9.67 | 11.12 | 11.12 | 9.40 | 11.49 | 11.65 | 11.15 | 11.80 | 11.53 | 15.95 | 19.45 | 31.17 | 39.76 | 49.35 |
| Margins (%) | |||||||||||||||||||
| GrossMargin | 26.5 | 30.1 | 31.2 | 30.7 | 29.3 | 31.0 | 31.6 | 33.3 | 18.7 | 20.7 | 20.1 | 18.9 | 17.9 | 19.3 | 23.2 | 25.9 | 29.8 | 31.4 | 32.9 |
| Operating Margin | 18.3 | 22.5 | 23.5 | 22.6 | 20.8 | 23.3 | 24.0 | 25.7 | 10.4 | 12.4 | 11.8 | 10.5 | 10.3 | 11.3 | 14.8 | 17.6 | 21.9 | 23.6 | 25.2 |
| Net Margin | 14.1 | 15.7 | 17.5 | 17.0 | 15.8 | 17.5 | 18.0 | 19.2 | 9.5 | 11.1 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 10.3 | 12.7 | 13.9 | 16.2 | 17.7 | 18.8 |
| Sequential Growth (%) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 10.5 | 18.6 | 12.8 | -2.9 | -3.9 | 10.7 | 12.2 | -6.4 | 13.7 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 13.4 | 4.4 | -10.5 | 11.8 | 11.5 | 37.7 | 16.7 | 16.9 |
| GrossProfit | 15.0 | 34.5 | 17.1 | -4.7 | -8.2 | 17.1 | 14.5 | -1.4 | 16.9 | 15.4 | -1.0 | 6.7 | -0.8 | -3.5 | 34.3 | 24.2 | 58.7 | 22.8 | 22.7 |
| EBIT | 18.6 | 45.2 | 18.0 | -6.5 | -11.7 | 24.1 | 15.8 | 0.2 | 13.0 | 24.9 | -2.9 | 0.6 | 2.4 | -2.1 | 46.9 | 32.7 | 71.8 | 25.4 | 25.2 |
| Net Profit | 19.2 | 32.3 | 26.3 | -6.1 | -10.7 | 23.2 | 15.1 | 0.0 | 13.1 | 22.3 | 1.5 | -4.4 | 5.8 | -2.2 | 38.3 | 22.0 | 60.2 | 27.6 | 24.1 |
| EPS | 19.2 | 32.3 | 26.3 | -6.1 | -10.7 | 23.2 | 15.1 | 0.0 | 13.1 | 22.3 | 1.5 | -4.4 | 5.8 | -2.2 | 38.3 | 22.0 | 60.2 | 27.6 | 24.1 |
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Company Reports, Citi Research
Figure 9. Tripod - Forward P/E band
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: DataCentral, Citi Research
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission. Source: DataCentral, Citi Research
Prepared for Kevin Lu
| 2368.TW: Fiscalyearend31-Dec | 2368.TW: Fiscalyearend31-Dec | 2368.TW: Fiscalyearend31-Dec | 2368.TW: Fiscalyearend31-Dec | 2368.TW: Fiscalyearend31-Dec | 2368.TW: Fiscalyearend31-Dec | Price:NT$964.00; TP: | NT$1,630.00; | MarketCap:NT$504,107m; | 2368.TW: Fiscalyearend31-Dec | Recomm:Buy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit&Loss(NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | Valuation ratios | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
| Sales revenue | 38,952 | 60,004 | 100,009 | 146,911 | 192,448 | PE(x) | 86.8 | 50.8 | 25.9 | 15.0 | 10.8 |
| Cost of sales | -27,556 | -40,321 | -63,988 | -88,018 | -112,470 | PB(x) | 22.9 | 14.6 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 3.8 |
| Gross profit | 11,396 | 19,683 | 36,021 | 58,893 | 79,978 | EV/EBITDA(x) | 55.0 | 32.8 | 16.7 | 9.4 | 6.4 |
| Gross Margin (%) | 29.3 | 32.8 | 36.0 | 40.1 | 41.6 | FCFyield (%) | 0.1 | -0.9 | -0.4 | 4.2 | 6.9 |
| EBITDA(Adj) | 9,118 | 15,327 | 30,291 | 52,749 | 72,376 | Dividend yield (%) | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.4 |
| EBITDAMargin(Adj) (%) | 23.4 | 25.5 | 30.3 | 35.9 | 37.6 | Payout ratio (%) | 31 | 30 | 26 | 29 | 37 |
| Depreciation | -1,051 | -1,284 | -2,477 | -5,122 | -6,393 | ROE(%) | 29.4 | 35.1 | 46.4 | 49.9 | 43.3 |
| Amortisation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Cashflow(NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
| EBIT (Adj) | 8,067 | 14,043 | 27,815 | 47,627 | 65,983 | EBITDA | 9,118 | 15,327 | 30,291 | 52,749 | 72,376 |
| EBIT Margin (Adj) (%) | 20.7 | 23.4 | 27.8 | 32.4 | 34.3 | Working capital | -1,129 | -8,564 | -7,468 | -5,836 | -6,524 |
| Net interest | 78 | 55 | 43 | 70 | 110 | Other | -2,451 | -4,437 | -8,207 | -13,727 | -19,021 |
| Associates | -340 | -79 | -111 | 0 | 0 | Operating cashflow | 5,538 | 2,327 | 14,616 | 33,187 | 46,830 |
| Non-Op/Except/Other Adj | 685 | 154 | -102 | 50 | 50 | Capex | -5,131 | -6,733 | -16,877 | -12,000 | -12,000 |
| Pre-tax profit | 8,490 | 14,173 | 27,644 | 47,747 | 66,143 | Net acq/disposals | -263 | -66 | 1,281 | 0 | 0 |
| Tax | -2,875 | -4,567 | -8,037 | -13,847 | -19,181 | Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Extraord./Min.Int./Pref.div. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 Investing cashflow | -5,394 | -6,799 | -15,597 | -12,000 | -12,000 | |
| Reported net profit | 5,616 | 9,607 | 19,607 | 33,900 | 46,961 | Dividends paid | -1,703 | -2,920 | -4,995 | -9,804 | -16,950 |
| Net Margin (%) | 14.4 | 16.0 | 19.6 | 23.1 | 24.4 | Financing cashflow | 1,879 | 14,186 | 3,653 | 3,709 | 1,744 |
| CoreNPAT | 5,616 | 9,607 | 19,607 | 33,900 | 46,961 | Net change in cash | 2,023 | 9,714 | 2,673 | 24,896 | 36,575 |
| Per share data | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | Free cashflow to s/holders | 407 | -4,407 | -2,261 | 21,187 | 34,830 |
| Reported EPS($) | 11.11 | 18.98 | 37.24 | 64.39 | 89.20 | ||||||
| Core EPS($) | 11.11 | 18.98 | 37.24 | 64.39 | 89.20 | ||||||
| DPS($) | 3.46 | 5.72 | 9.66 | 18.96 | 32.78 | ||||||
| CFPS($) | 10.96 | 4.60 | 27.76 | 63.04 | 88.95 | ||||||
| FCFPS($) | 0.81 | -8.71 | -4.30 | 40.24 | 66.16 | ||||||
| BVPS($) | 42.17 | 66.16 | 96.93 | 161.32 | 250.52 | ||||||
| Wtdavgordshares(m) | 487 | 491 | 507 | 507 | 507 | ||||||
| Wtdavgdiluted shares (m) | 505 | 506 | 526 | 526 | 526 | ||||||
| Growthrates | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | ||||||
| Sales revenue (%) | 29.6 | 54.0 | 66.7 | 46.9 | 31.0 | ||||||
| EBIT (Adj) (%) | 57.1 | 74.1 | 98.1 | 71.2 | 38.5 | ||||||
| CoreNPAT(%) | 59.1 | 71.1 | 104.1 | 72.9 | 38.5 | ||||||
| CoreEPS(%) | 53.6 | 70.9 | 96.2 | 72.9 | 38.5 | ||||||
| BalanceSheet(NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | ||||||
| Cash&cashequiv. | 9,185 | 18,114 | 20,692 | 45,588 | 88,313 | ||||||
| Accounts receivables | 13,401 | 27,001 | 41,119 | 50,652 | 62,227 | ||||||
| Inventory | 7,900 | 9,747 | 14,762 | 17,610 | 21,449 | ||||||
| Net fixed &other tangibles | 12,779 | 19,121 | 32,333 | 39,211 | 38,667 | ||||||
| Goodwill &intangibles | 257 | 284 | 287 | 287 | 287 | ||||||
| Financial &other assets | 1,062 | 1,478 | 2,225 | 2,729 | 3,341 | ||||||
| Total assets | 44,584 | 75,746 | 111,418 | 156,076 | 214,285 | ||||||
| Accounts payable | 8,268 | 11,029 | 17,066 | 20,496 | 25,119 | ||||||
| Short-term debt | 2,722 | 5,937 | 6,685 | 6,685 | 6,685 | ||||||
| Long-term debt | 4,531 | 11,875 | 16,540 | 20,248 | 21,993 | ||||||
| Provisions &other liab | 7,751 | 13,425 | 20,099 | 23,719 | 28,599 | ||||||
| Total liabilities | 23,272 | 42,265 | 60,390 | 71,148 | 82,395 | ||||||
| Shareholders' equity | 21,312 | 33,481 | 51,028 | 84,928 | 131,889 | ||||||
| Minority interests | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
| Total equity | 21,312 | 33,481 -303 | 51,028 | 84,928 | 131,889 | ||||||
| Net debt (Adj) | -1,931 | 2,533 | -18,654 | -59,636 | |||||||
| Net debt to equity (Adj) (%) | -9.1 | ||||||||||
| For definitions of the items in this table, | please click here. | -0.9 | 5.0 | -22.0 | -45.2 |
Prepared for Kevin Lu
| 3044.TW: | Fiscalyearend31-Dec | Price: NT$441.50; TP:NT$700.00; MarketCap:NT$232,055m; Recomm:Buy | Price: NT$441.50; TP:NT$700.00; MarketCap:NT$232,055m; Recomm:Buy | Price: NT$441.50; TP:NT$700.00; MarketCap:NT$232,055m; Recomm:Buy | Price: NT$441.50; TP:NT$700.00; MarketCap:NT$232,055m; Recomm:Buy | Price: NT$441.50; TP:NT$700.00; MarketCap:NT$232,055m; Recomm:Buy | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit&Loss(NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | Valuation ratios | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
| Sales revenue | 65,804 | 73,399 | 101,089 | 118,005 | 137,948 | PE(x) | 27.7 | 22.7 | 14.2 | 11.1 | 8.9 |
| Cost of sales | -50,516 | -54,407 | -70,950 | -80,982 | -92,525 | PB(x) | 4.6 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 2.7 |
| Gross profit | 15,288 | 18,992 | 30,139 | 37,023 | 45,423 | EV/EBITDA(x) | 15.1 | 12.4 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 5.2 |
| Gross Margin (%) | 23.2 | 25.9 | 29.8 | 31.4 | 32.9 | FCFyield (%) | 4.3 | 2.5 | -1.2 | 6.6 | 8.8 |
| EBITDA(Adj) | 14,071 | 16,915 | 27,008 | 33,424 | 40,792 | Dividend yield (%) | 2.3 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 7.5 |
| EBITDAMargin(Adj) (%) | 21.4 | 23.0 | 26.7 | 28.3 | 29.6 | Payout ratio (%) | 65 | 65 | 65 | 65 | 67 |
| Depreciation | -4,340 | -4,003 | -4,830 | -5,617 | -5,964 | ROE(%) | 17.9 | 19.6 | 27.8 | 30.3 | 32.3 |
| Amortisation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Cashflow(NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
| EBIT (Adj) | 9,731 | 12,912 | 22,177 | 27,807 | 34,828 | EBITDA | 14,071 | 16,915 | 27,008 | 33,424 | 40,792 |
| EBIT Margin (Adj) (%) | 14.8 | 17.6 | 21.9 | 23.6 | 25.2 | Working capital | -536 | -2,461 | -10,412 | -1,170 | -3,555 |
| Net interest | 916 | 742 | 674 | 875 | 855 | Other | -1,348 | -2,687 | -5,795 | -6,908 | -8,889 |
| Associates | 66 | -13 | 9 | 0 | 0 | Operating cashflow | 12,187 | 11,767 | 10,801 | 25,346 | 28,348 |
| Non-Op/Except/Other Adj | 284 | 357 | 177 | 344 | 344 | Capex | -2,316 | -5,867 | -13,688 | -10,000 | -8,000 |
| Pre-tax profit | 10,996 | 13,998 | 23,037 | 29,026 | 36,027 | Net acq/disposals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tax | -2,614 | -3,773 | -6,655 | -8,127 | -10,088 | Other | -1,408 | -2,971 | -9 | 0 | 0 |
| Extraord./Min.Int./Pref.div. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Investing cashflow | -3,724 | -8,838 | -13,697 | -10,000 | -8,000 |
| Reported net profit | 8,382 | 10,225 | 16,382 | 20,899 | 25,939 | Dividends paid | -3,942 | -5,414 | -6,646 | -10,648 | -13,584 |
| Net Margin (%) | 12.7 | 13.9 | 16.2 | 17.7 | 18.8 | Financing cashflow | -181 | -5,184 | -3,103 | -9,628 | -12,556 |
| CoreNPAT | 8,382 | 10,225 | 16,382 | 20,899 | 25,939 | Net change in cash | 8,283 | -2,255 | -5,999 | 5,718 | 7,792 |
| Per share data | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | Free cashflow to s/holders | 9,871 | 5,900 | -2,887 | 15,346 | 20,348 |
| Reported EPS($) | 15.95 | 19.45 | 31.17 | 39.76 | 49.35 | ||||||
| Core EPS($) | 15.95 | 19.45 | 31.17 | 39.76 | 49.35 | ||||||
| DPS($) | 10.30 | 12.64 | 20.26 | 25.84 | 32.97 | ||||||
| CFPS($) | 23.19 | 22.39 | 20.55 | 48.22 | 53.93 | ||||||
| 18.78 | 11.22 | -5.49 | 29.20 | 38.71 | |||||||
| FCFPS($) BVPS($) | 95.69 | 102.90 | 121.42 | 140.92 | 164.43 | ||||||
| Wtdavgordshares(m) | 526 | 526 | 526 | 526 | 526 | ||||||
| Wtdavgdiluted shares (m) | 526 | 526 | 526 | 526 | 526 | ||||||
| Growthrates | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | ||||||
| Sales revenue (%) | 11.8 | 11.5 | 37.7 | 16.7 | 16.9 | ||||||
| EBIT (Adj) (%) | 46.9 | 32.7 | 71.8 | 25.4 | 25.2 | ||||||
| CoreNPAT(%) | 38.3 | 22.0 | 60.2 | 27.6 | 24.1 | ||||||
| CoreEPS(%) | 38.3 | 22.0 | 60.2 | 27.6 | 24.1 | ||||||
| BalanceSheet(NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | ||||||
| Cash&cashequiv. | 28,914 | 26,659 | 20,660 | 26,378 | 34,170 | ||||||
| Accounts receivables | 20,389 | 22,958 | 32,398 | 35,957 | 41,386 | ||||||
| Inventory | 8,590 | 12,019 | 16,447 | 17,168 | 19,972 | ||||||
| Net fixed &other tangibles | 25,077 | 28,534 | 37,392 | 41,775 | 43,811 | ||||||
| Goodwill &intangibles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
| Financial &other assets | 4,593 | 7,991 | 10,449 | 11,397 | 12,654 | ||||||
| Total assets | 87,564 | 98,162 | 117,345 | 132,675 | 151,994 | ||||||
| Accounts payable | 7,119 | 9,334 | 10,782 | 11,801 | 13,704 | ||||||
| Short-term debt | 7,142 | 6,479 | 9,548 | 10,432 | 11,322 | ||||||
| Long-term debt | 0 | 1,000 | 1,474 | 1,610 | 1,748 | ||||||
| Provisions &other liab | 22,999 | 27,257 | 31,714 | 34,754 | 38,787 | ||||||
| 44,070 | 65,560 | ||||||||||
| Total liabilities | 37,260 | 53,517 | 58,597 | ||||||||
| Shareholders' equity | 50,296 | 54,084 | 63,820 | 74,070 | 86,425 | ||||||
| Minority interests Total equity | 8 50,304 | 8 54,092 | 8 63,828 | 8 74,078 | 8 86,434 | ||||||
| Net debt (Adj) | -21,772 | -19,180 | -9,638 | -14,336 | -21,100 | ||||||
| Net debt to equity (Adj) (%) | -43.3 | ||||||||||
| For definitions of the items in this table, | please click here. | -35.5 | -15.1 | -19.4 | -24.4 |
NT$
1,704
1,420
1,136
852
568
284
Aug 25
4 76% Upside
NT$ 1,630.00
4 69% Upside
NT$ 800.00
v 17% Downside
Bull/Bear: Gold Circuit Electronics (2368.TW)
BASE Assumptions
• Revenue YoY growth of +67%/ +47% in 2026/27E.
- GM at 36.0%/40.1% in 2026/27E.
BEAR Assumptions
• Share loss to its peers in switch board/UBB/OAM businesses of US CSPs.
- Poor efficiency of its Thailand plant.
Prepared for Kevin Lu
NT$
804
670
536
402
268
Aug 25
Prepared for Kevin Lu
NT$ 700.00
NT$ 400.00
7 9.4% Downside
Bull/Bear: Tripod Technology (3044.TW)
Prepared for Kevin Lu
Gold Circuit Electronics
Company description
Founded in 1981, Gold Circuit Electronics (GCE) is a Taiwanese company specializing in the production of printed circuit board (PCB) including doublesided PCB, multi-layer PCB, and HDI. GCE's products primarily focus on applications of servers, networking, laptops, base stations, mobile phones, and tablets. The company is known for its high-layer count design capabilities (maximum layer count: +50L) in the PCB industry, which help it to penetrate into more high-end applications such as AI servers and 400G networking. Currently, server/networking accounts for +70% of its total sales. The company has four plants, with one located in Taiwan and the other three in China, and plans to build one plant in Thailand.
Investment strategy
We rate GCE a Buy as we believe its high-tech capabilities in server/networking design will allow it to catch more AI opportunities from US CSPs or US IC designers in the AI boom cycle. We expect its rising sales exposure toward high-end applications with better margins and improving UTR to drive its margin going forward. In our view, geopolitical tensions should benefit non-China suppliers more, which would prevent GCE from fierce ASP competition from China PCB peers.
Valuation
Our TP of NT$1,630 for GCE is based on 25x our 2027E EPS estimate, which is higher than 22x or +2std level of its 1-year-forward PE over the past three years. We believe the 25x multiple is justified by GCE's high AI server/networking sales exposure, market share gain in existing ASIC customer and new AI ASIC customer wins from 4Q26, which drives its AI ASIC sales growth and margin profile. Recall that TSMC expects close to a 50%+ CAGR in the next five years for its AI-related demand, which is stronger than any other applications. Thus, we believe investors would be willing to pay for high-growth AI names (especially ASIC) with high PE multiples. Our target price is equivalent to 44x/25x our 2026/27E EPS estimates and 16.5x/9.9x our 2026/27E BVPS.
Risks
Key downside risks that could prevent the shares from reaching our target price include: 1) weaker-than-expected server recovery; 2) slower ramp-up pace of new server platform; 3) less-than-expected AI demand; 4) more PCB peers added into AI supply chain; and 5) stricter practice of China+1 by customers due to geopolitical concerns.
Tripod Technology
Company description
Established in 1997, Tripod is a major printed circuit board (PCB) supplier, ranked No.9 globally by Prismark in 2025. Tripod has manufacturing sites in
Prepared for Kevin Lu
Taiwan and Wuxi, China. The company has a diversified product portfolio including DRAM, TFT-LCD, HDD, HDI, PC, server, and automotive.
Investment strategy
We rate Tripod a Buy. We like Tripod for its management quality, solid execution, and product-mix improvement. We believe resilient growth from memory, server/networking, and auto businesses will offset soft demand from PCs/handsets and improve the overall margin profile at the same time. Increasing contribution from HDI products should also help margins. With prudent capex, stable depreciation level, and solid operations, we expect the PCB business to generate cash flow to support a decent dividend yield. With AI demand booming and potential supply tightness in high-end PCBs, we believe Tripod could benefit.
Valuation
We use DCF methodology to derive our target price of NT$700. Key assumptions of our DCF model include a risk-free rate of 4.5% (10-year government bond rate), a market risk premium of 7%, and an equity beta of 0.8 (1-year weekly share price), which derives a WACC of 9.7%. Our model assumes c.2% long-term revenue growth and gradually rising EBIT margin from 23.6% in 2027E. Our target price is equivalent to 23x/18x our 2026/27E EPS estimates and 5.8x/5.0x our 2026/27E BVPS estimates, which we believe are more reflective of its current fundamentals.
Risks
Key downside risks that could prevent Tripod shares from reaching our target price are: 1) weaker-than-expected tech demand; 2) increasing China labor costs, rising gold/copper prices, and/or RMB appreciation, which would pressure margins; 3) a sustained drop in conventional PCB pricing; 4) less HDI sales mix; 5) less server/networking/memory sales exposure; and 6) lessthan-expected AI growth.
Gold Circuit Electronics (2368.TW)
Analyst: Jack Chen
TWD
1,500
1,000
500
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Date
Appendix A-1
EE. 12-Mar-24 09:50:59
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*280.00
242.50
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