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報告_Citi_精測6510_3Q26_20261028

更新 2026-10-29

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原始內容

Prepared for [讀者資訊已遮蔽] citi

28 Oct 2026 10:49:41 ET │ 14 pages

CHPT (6510.TWO)

Scale-Up to Outweigh Margin Dilution with Multiple Projects Underpin 2027E Growth; Revised TP; Buy

CITI'S TAKE

CHPT delivered another record quarter in 3Q26, with sales up 16% QoQ and OPM expanding to 35.2% despite a slight GPM dip on early new product contribution. Looking into 4Q26E, we expect the AI ASIC project ramp, high-power burn-in/SLT board shipments and the start of engineering probe card shipments for AI ASIC to drive 20%+ QoQ sales growth. While GPM should soften on a heavier new product mix, leverage should keep OPM at elevated levels. Mgmt. expects 2027E sales growth to sustain the 2026E pace, underpinned by multiple AI/HPC testing board and probe card total solution projects. We lower our 2027E forecasts on a higher opex ratio assumption but raise 2028E, cut our TP to NT$4,000, and reiterate Buy.

Revenue scale to offset new product margin headwinds - Following another record quarter in 3Q26, we expect the AI ASIC project and its new products (highpower burn-in/SLT board) to continue scaling up and support sales growth into 4Q26E. We also note that engineering probe cards for AI ASIC have started shipping. We forecast 4Q26E sales to grow 22% QoQ. Although GPM should decline to 53.5% on a rising contribution from lower-margin new products, we expect the opex ratio to fall to 20.5% on leverage, keeping OPM at 33.0%.

Multiple opportunities to drive long-term growth - Mgmt. expects 2027E sales growth to match 2026E's pace, driven by multiple AI/HPC testing board and probe card total solution projects. Verification of the project for a US auto maker is nearing completion, with contribution from 2H27E, while a CPU project for a US CSP samples in Nov, with results in 1Q27E. Mgmt. targets probe card total solutions at 30% of sales in the long-term. CHPT has secured FT orders for the US CSP's nextgen AI ASIC and is now pursuing burn-in/SLT board. Longer term, we expect margins to expand on new product scale-up, better yields and a richer probe card mix.

Implications - We lower our 2027 earnings forecasts by 8% but raise 2028E by 8%, reflecting updated guidance and a higher opex ratio assumption. We revise our TP to NT$4,000, based on an unchanged 35x 2027E EPS, as we view the 2027E cut as opex-driven rather than from a change in structural growth. We believe the multiple is justified by CHPT's leading position in high-end testing boards and its unique 'Allin-House' business model. With solid industry trends and robust AI/HPC demand, we reiterate our Buy rating.

Earnings Summary

Year to 31 Dec Net Profit (NT$M) Diluted EPS (NT$) EPS growth (%) P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) Yield (%)
2024A 510 15.55 na na 13.1 6.5 0.0
2025A 997 30.41 95.6 105.2 12.0 11.9 0.2
2026E 2,015 61.30 101.6 52.2 9.6 20.1 0.5
2027E 3,746 113.89 85.8 28.1 7.2 28.5 1.0
2028E 5,257 159.82 40.3 20.0 5.3 29.8 1.8

Source: Powered by dataCentral

n Buy / High Risk

Price (28 Oct 26 15:00) NT$3,200.00

Target price NT$4,000.00↓

from NT$4,350.00

Expected share price return

25.0%

Expected dividend yield

1.0%

Expected total return

26.0%

Market Cap NT$105,373M US$3,250M

Price Performance (RIC: 6510.TWO, BB: 6510 TT)

Michael Hung AC

+886-2-8726-9092 michael.hung@citi.com

Laura (Chia Yi) Chen +886-2-8726-9090 laura.cy.chen@citi.com

Jack Chen +886-2-8726-9091 jack1.chen@citi.com

Nicholas Lai +886-2-8726-9093 nicholas.lai@citi.com

See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations.

Prepared for [讀者資訊已遮蔽] Prepared for [讀者資訊已遮蔽]

6510.TWO: Fiscal year end 31-Dec - Profit & Loss (NT$m) 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E Price: NT$3,200.00; TP: NT$4,000.00; Market Cap: NT$105,373m; Recomm: Buy/High Risk - Valuation ratios Price: NT$3,200.00; TP: NT$4,000.00; Market Cap: NT$105,373m; Recomm: Buy/High Risk - 2024 Price: NT$3,200.00; TP: NT$4,000.00; Market Cap: NT$105,373m; Recomm: Buy/High Risk - 2025 Price: NT$3,200.00; TP: NT$4,000.00; Market Cap: NT$105,373m; Recomm: Buy/High Risk - 2026E Price: NT$3,200.00; TP: NT$4,000.00; Market Cap: NT$105,373m; Recomm: Buy/High Risk - 2027E Price: NT$3,200.00; TP: NT$4,000.00; Market Cap: NT$105,373m; Recomm: Buy/High Risk - 2028E
Sales revenue 3,605 4,806 7,226 11,758 15,644 PE (x) na na 52.2 28.1 20.0
Cost of sales -1,678 -2,138 -3,177 -5,193 -6,855 PB (x) 13.1 12.0 9.6 7.2 5.3
Gross profit 1,927 2,668 4,049 6,565 8,789 EV/EBITDA (x) na 69.5 37.7 20.8 14.6
Gross Margin (%) 53.5 55.5 56.0 55.8 56.2 FCF yield (%) 0.4 1.4 -0.5 0.0 3.1
EBITDA (Adj) 774 1,465 2,690 4,880 6,839 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8
EBITDA Margin (Adj) (%) 21.5 30.5 37.2 41.5 43.7 Payout ratio (%) 3 26 25 27 36
Depreciation -285 -275 -284 -313 -410 ROE (%) 6.5 11.9 20.1 28.5 29.8
Amortisation 0 0 0 0 0 Cashflow (NT$m) 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
EBIT (Adj) 489 1,190 2,406 4,568 6,429 EBITDA 774 1,465 2,690 4,880 6,839
EBIT Margin (Adj) (%) 13.6 24.8 33.3 38.8 41.1 Working capital 38 177 -88 0 0
Net interest 27 44 44 45 45 Other -196 -68 -2,617 -2,246 -2,327
Associates 0 0 0 0 0 Operating cashflow 616 1,574 -15 2,634 4,512
Non-Op/Except/Other Adj 37 -9 22 0 0 Capex -146 -153 -508 -2,600 -1,200
Pre-tax profit 553 1,225 2,471 4,612 6,474 Net acq/disposals -25 -42 -123 0 0
Tax -68 -238 -462 -867 -1,218 Other -17 -177 0 0 0
Extraord./Min.Int./Pref.div. 25 11 5 1 1 Investing cashflow -188 -372 -632 -2,600 -1,200
Reported net profit 510 997 2,015 3,746 5,257 Dividends paid -16 -256 -502 -1,013 -1,884
Net Margin (%) 14.1 20.7 27.9 31.9 33.6 Financing cashflow -43 -285 2,442 951 498
Core NPAT 510 997 2,015 3,746 5,257 Net change in cash 400 911 1,795 985 3,810
Per share data 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E Free cashflow to s/holders 470 1,421 -524 34 3,312
Reported EPS ($) 15.55 30.41 61.30 113.89 159.82
Core EPS ($) 15.55 30.41 61.30 113.89 159.82
DPS ($) 0.50 7.80 15.23 30.78 57.23
CFPS ($) 18.78 48.01 -0.46 80.09 137.19
FCFPS 14.32 43.34 -15.93 1.04 100.71
($) BVPS ($) 244.83 267.06 333.45 444.21 599.64
Wtd avg ord shares (m) 32.8 32.8 32.9 32.9 32.9
Wtd avg diluted shares (m) 32.8 32.8 32.9 32.9 32.9
Growth rates 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales revenue (%) 25.0 33.3 50.4 62.7 33.1
EBIT (Adj) (%) na 143.5 102.1 89.9 40.8
Core NPAT (%) na 95.6 102.0 85.9 40.3
Core EPS (%) na 95.6 101.6 85.8 40.3
Balance Sheet (NT$m) 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & cash equiv. 3,093 4,004 5,799 6,784 10,594
Accounts receivables 1,048 688 1,523 2,143 2,701
Inventory 571 787 2,210 2,921 3,689
Net fixed & other tangibles 4,197 3,980 4,112 6,280 6,913
Goodwill & intangibles 25 18 124 124 124
Financial & other assets 225 474 3,153 4,498 5,708
Total assets 9,158 9,951 16,920 22,750 29,729
Accounts payable 380 263 854 1,127 1,422
Short-term debt 0 0 5 5 5
Long-term debt 0 0 1,908 2,859 3,356
Provisions & other liab 721 907 2,871 3,733 4,663
Total liabilities 1,101 1,170 5,638 7,723 9,447
Shareholders' equity 8,037 11,277 15,023 20,279
Minority interests 21 8,770 10 5 4 3
Total equity 8,058 8,780 11,282 15,027 20,282
Net debt (Adj) -3,093 -4,004 -3,886 -3,920 -7,233
Net debt to equity (Adj) (%) -38.4
For definitions of the items in this table, please click here. -45.6 -34.4 -26.1 -35.7

Figure 1. CHPT - 3Q26 earnings review

(NT$mn) 3Q26 - Actual 2Q26 - Actual 3Q25 - Q/Q 3Q25 - Actual 3Q26 - Y/Y 3Q26 - Citi 3Q26 - Diff. 3Q26 - Cons. 3Q26 - Diff.
Revenue 1,905 1,640 16% 1,242 53% 1,957 -3% 1,968 -3%
Gross profit 1,091 943 16% 700 56% 1,081 1% 1,091 0%
Gross margin 57.3% 57.5% -0.3 ppt 56.3% +0.9 ppt 55.2% +2.0 ppt 55.4% +1.8 ppt
Op. profit 671 570 18% 307 118% 670 0% 688 -3%
OP margin 35.2% 34.7% +0.5 ppt 24.7% +10.5 ppt 34.2% +1.0 ppt 35.0% +0.2 ppt
Net income 551 494 12% 276 100% 541 2% 578 -5%
EPS (NT$) 16.76 15.02 12% 8.41 99% 16.51 1% 17.47 -4%

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Company Reports, Citi Research Estimates, Bloomberg consensus

Figure 2. CHPT - Earnings estimates revision

(NT$mn) 2026E - New 2026E - Old 2026E - Chg. 2027E - New 2027E - Old 2027E - Chg. 2028E - New 2028E - Old 2028E - Chg.
Sales 7,226 7,219 0% 11,758 12,464 -6% 15,644 14,825 6%
Sequential growth 50% 50% 63% 73% 33% 19%
Gross profit 4,049 4,041 0% 6,565 6,861 -4% 8,789 8,052 9%
Opex 1,643 1,588 3% 1,997 1,890 6% 2,360 2,075 14%
Operating profit 2,406 2,453 -2% 4,568 4,971 -8% 6,429 5,977 8%
Pre-tax profit 2,471 2,508 -1% 4,612 5,007 -8% 6,474 6,012 8%
Net income 2,015 2,044 -1% 3,746 4,066 -8% 5,257 4,882 8%
EPS (NT$) 61.30 62.35 -2% 113.89 124.01 -8% 159.82 148.88 7%
Gross margin 56.0% 56.0% +0.1 ppt 55.8% 55.0% +0.8 ppt 56.2% 54.3% +1.9 ppt
Opex ratio 22.7% 22.0% +0.7 ppt 17.0% 15.2% +1.8 ppt 15.1% 14.0% +1.1 ppt
Operating margin 33.3% 34.0% -0.7 ppt 38.8% 39.9% -1.0 ppt 41.1% 40.3% +0.8 ppt
Net margin 27.9% 28.3% -0.4 ppt 31.9% 32.6% -0.8 ppt 33.6% 32.9% +0.7 ppt

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Citi Research Estimates Prepared for [讀者資訊已遮蔽]

Figure 5. CHPT - Quarterly earnings forecast

(NT$ in Mn, year-end Dec) 1Q26 2Q26 3Q26 4Q26E 1Q27E 2Q27E 3Q27E 4Q27E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Net sales 1 ,35 7 1 ,640 1 ,905 2 ,325 2 ,247 2 ,679 3,354 3,477 4,806 7,226 1 1 ,758 1 5 ,644
Gross Profit 771 943 1 ,091 1 ,245 1 ,219 1 ,495 1 ,892 1 ,959 2 ,668 4,049 6,565 8,789
OPEX (373) (373) (420) (477) (449) (496) (517) (535) (1,478) (1,643) (1,997) (2,360)
Operating profit 397 5 70 671 768 769 999 1 ,376 1 ,423 1 ,190 2 ,406 4,568 6 ,429
Total Non-OP 21 26 11 8 8 21 9 8 34 66 45 45
Pre-tax profit 418 596 682 776 777 1,020 1,384 1,431 1,225 2,471 4,612 6,474
Income tax (80) (103) (131) (149) (147) (190) (258) (272) (238) (462) (867) (1,218)
Net Profit 342 494 551 627 630 830 1 ,126 1 ,159 997 2 ,015 3, 746 5 ,257
EPS (NT$) 10.43 15 .02 1 6 . 76 1 9 . 08 19. 15 25 .24 34. 24 35 . 25 30.41 61 . 30 113.89 159.82
Revenue mix
Wafer testing 70% 76% 68% 57% 52% 50% 53% 52% 65% 67% 52% 47%
IC testing 14% 18% 28% 39% 45% 47% 45% 46% 25% 27% 46% 51%
Others 16% 6% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 10% 7% 3% 2%
Margins (%)
Gross profit 56.8% 57.5% 57.3% 53.5% 54.2% 55.8% 56.4% 56.3% 55.5% 56.0% 55.8% 56.2%
OPEX to sales 27.5% 22.8% 22.0% 20.5% 20.0% 18.5% 15.4% 15.4% 30.7% 22.7% 17.0% 15.1%
Operating Margin 29.3% 34.7% 35.2% 33.0% 34.2% 37.3% 41.0% 40.9% 24.8% 33.3% 38.8% 41.1%
Pre-tax profit 30.8% 36.3% 35.8% 33.4% 34.6% 38.1% 41.3% 41.2% 25.5% 34.2% 39.2% 41.4%
Net Margin 25.2% 30.1% 28.9% 27.0% 28.0% 31.0% 33.6% 33.3% 20.7% 27.9% 31.9% 33.6%
Y/ Y
Net sales 17.8% 34.9% 53.4% 94.4% 65.6% 63.4% 76.1% 49.6% 33.3% 50.4% 62.7% 33.1%
Gross profit 24.3% 38.9% 55.9% 85.9% 58.2% 58.5% 73.5% 57.4% 27.4% 48.6% 63.4% 32.0%
Operating profit 58.8% 81.5% 118.4% 140.5% 93.7% 75.4% 105.1% 85.3% 143.5% 102.1% 89.9% 40.8%
Pre-tax profit 56.3% 127.6% 100.6% 118.1% 85.7% 71.2% 103.1% 84.5% 121.6% 101.8% 86.6% 40.4%
Net Margin 54.6% 129.1% 100.0% 120.3% 84.3% 68.1% 104.3% 84.8% 95.6% 102.0% 85.9% 40.3%
Q/Q
Net sales 13.5% 20.8% 16.2% 22.0% -3.3% 19.2% 25.2% 3.7%
Gross profit 15.1% 22.4% 15.6% 14.1% -2.1% 22.7% 26.6% 3.5%
Operating profit 24.3% 43.4% 17.7% 14.5% 0.1% 29.9% 37.6% 3.5%
Pre-tax profit 17.6% 42.4% 14.4% 13.8% 0.2% 31.3% 35.7% 3.4%
Net Margin 20.0% 44.5% 11.6% 13.8% 0.4% 31.8% 35.7% 2.9%

© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.

Source: Company Reports, Citi Research Estimates Prepared for [讀者資訊已遮蔽]

Bull/Bear: CHPT (6510.TWO)

Spread 72pp

Current Price and expected returns (upside/downside) as of 28 Oct 2026

BULL Assumptions

  • Accelerated probe card PCB & load board revenue growth of +60% in 2026E, fueled by a faster-than-expected ramp of nextgen AI GPU architecture and full-scale production of US CSP AI ASIC project.
  • Target PE multiple of 4Ox

BASE Assumptions

  • Ove e r d e + ppc delivers the highest contribution.
  • Target PE multiple of 35x

BEAR Assumptions

  • Slower-than-expected revenue growth of +25% in 2026E, caused by sub-optimal capacity utilization or delays in major US AI GPU/ASIC projects.
  • Target PE multiple of 20x

Prepared for [讀者資訊已遮蔽]

CHPT

Company description

Chunghwa Precision Test Tech (CHPT), established in 2005, is a global leader in semiconductor test interfaces. Historically focused on the smartphone AP segment, CHPT has successfully pivoted its strategic focus towards highgrowth AI/HPC applications. Utilizing its unique "All-in-House" vertical integration model and leading mechanical design & simulation technology, the company specializes in probe cards, probe card PCBs, and load boards for top-tier chipmakers. This comprehensive portfolio effectively addresses high-frequency signal bottlenecks, providing one-stop-shop solutions that ensure structural reliability across the global AI computing supply chain.

Investment strategy

We rate CHPT at Buy/High Risk (1H). We believe CHPT is well positioned for the AI infrastructure cycle, with leadership supported by its unique "All-inHouse" vertical integration model and broad participation across next-gen AI GPU and US AI ASIC projects. Its technical high ground in advanced nodes solutions and dedicated localized support provide it a defensible position, in our view, as advanced packaging demand expands. The company captures a wider share of the test interface value chain across probe PCBs, load boards, and high-end burn-in boards, providing a multi-layered earnings engine.

Valuation

We value CHPT using a PE-based approach that factors in earnings momentum and the structural shift towards high-end testing. Our target price of NT$4,000 is derived from applying 35x to 2027E EPS, implying the company's average forward PE since 2024 +1 SD, which we believe is justified given the company's entrenched position in the 2nm/3nm testing segment, rising contribution from US AI GPU & AI ASIC projects, and the unique competitive advantage of its "All-in-House" vertical integration model. With these structural drivers in place, and as we believe the market is starting to value it as an AI/HPC play (rather than a consumer electronics stock), we expect the multiple to hold at a premium relative to its historical averages.

Risks

Our quant system rates the CHPT stock as High Risk for its share price volatility.

Key downside risks that could impede the stock from reaching our target price, and to our earnings forecasts, include: 1) margin compression from lower-than-expected utilization rates; 2) execution delays in concentrated US AI GPU and ASIC programs; 3) intensifying competition in testing boards from global peers; and 4) structural gross margin dilution from a shift towards high-end burn-in boards.

Prepared for [讀者資訊已遮蔽] If you are visually impaired and would like to speak to a Citi representative regarding the details of the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside the US +1-210-677-3788

Appendix A-1

圖片清單(已驗證 2026-10-29)

檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
報告_Citi_精測6510_3Q26_20261028_001.png 18KB 真資料圖(股價走勢小圖,財務/股價類不嵌 lib) CHPT 近一年股價折線(TWD,縱軸 1,000–4,000,2025-12 至 2026-09 區間;高點約 3,800 上下、近期回到約 3,000)
報告_Citi_精測6510_3Q26_20261028_002.png 110KB 真資料圖(估值帶,財務/股價類不嵌 lib) Figure 3 Forward P/E band(12x/28x/44x/60x,CHPT 股價落在約 28x 線附近)與 Figure 4 Forward P/B band(1x/5x/9x/13x,另有 Forward ROE 右軸)
報告_Citi_精測6510_3Q26_20261028_003.png 69KB 真資料圖(情境目標價,財務/股價類不嵌 lib) 2026-10-28 股價 NT$3,200 起算的 12 個月情境:Bull NT$4,500、Base NT$4,000、Bear NT$2,200
報告_Citi_精測6510_3Q26_20261028_004.png 145KB 真資料圖(評等沿革,財務/股價類不嵌 lib) 上圖 Ratings and Target Price History:2026-02-06 TP 5,000(股價 3,700)、2026-04-29 TP 4,900(3,630)、2026-07-29 TP 4,350(2,370),評等皆 1H;下圖 Catalyst Watch:2026-02-06 Add CW Upside 90 天、2026-05-07 Remove CW