PDF 原檔：報告_Citi_南電8046_20260806_original.pdf
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141KB | 真資料圖 | 左：Figure 4 NYCPB 12M Forward P/E Band 走勢圖（5.0x/10.0x/15.0x/20.0x/25.0x，2005-2025+）；右：Figure 5 NYCPB 12M Forward P/B Band 走勢圖（1.6x/2.1x/2.6x/3.1x/3.6x）疊加 ROE(%) 曲線（粉紅線） |
報告_Citi_南電8046_20260806_003.png |
104KB | 真資料圖 | Bull/Base/Bear 目標價情境圖：牛市 NT$1,700.00（▲54% Upside）、基準 NT$1,600.00（45% Upside）、熊市 NT$800.00（▼28% Downside），標示 2026-08-06 股價 NT$1,105.00 為分岔點，左側為 2024-2026 股價走勢黑線 |
報告_Citi_南電8046_20260806_004.png |
226KB | 真資料圖 | 上半：「Ratings and Target Price History」股價走勢圖（藍線covered/紅點not covered）+ 13 筆評等與目標價變動紀錄表（日期/Rating/Target Price/Closing Price，2023-08 至 2026-06，分析師 Jack Chen）；下半：「Short-Term View/Catalyst Watch Research」走勢圖 + 9 筆 Catalyst Watch 加入/移除紀錄表 |
報告_Citi_南電8046_20260806_001.png（16KB）未達 40KB 門檻，預設 logo/裝飾圖，未逐張 Read。
原始內容
(RIC: 0040.1W, BB: 0040 11)
TWD
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06 Aug 2026 09:52:49 ET │ 14 pages
Sep
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Jun
NYPCB (8046.TW)
2Q26 GM beat; aggressive capex announced; Buy
CITI'S TAKE
NYPCB posted strong 2Q26 GM beat as other ABF peers. We've detailed our ABF/BT thesis for each of major Taiwanese peers in this report. For NYPCB, we see upside from 1) product mix enhancement, 2) price hikes and 3) UTR improvement in its China plant. Although NYPCB just announced an aggressive capex plan for its capacity expansion, we think this expansion would be a greenfield project which likely wouldn't come online until late2028. In the near term, we think the company would focus more on debottlenecking its existing plants or likely retrofitting some capacity. Overall, we remain bullish on NYPCB and slightly raise our DCF-based TP to NT$1,600 (implied 30x 2027E EPS). Reiterate our Buy rating.
2Q26 GM strong beat -2Q26 sales advanced 21% QoQ, which we believe is led by both ABF (major) and BT price hikes. Thus, 2Q26 GM expanded by 8.9ppt QoQ to 24.7%, beating Citi/consensus forecasts of 22.8%/21.3% by 1.9ppt/3.4ppt. Non-op is quite clean. Due to higher tax rate, overall earnings came 4% higher than Citi/consensus forecasts.
3Q26 stronger sales momentum -Given higher season, production ramp for more AI chips and price hike, we now forecast NYPCB's 2Q26E sales to grow 19% QoQ. We forecast ABF price hike of +17%/+12% QoQ in 3Q/4Q26E. We expect UTR in its China plant to see more meaningful improvement in the coming quarters. We forecast 3Q26E GM to expand to 29.2% (+4.5ppts QoQ), backed by GM improvement in both ABF and BT (likely GM>20%).
Significant capex announced -The company announced capex amount of NT$46.8bn for capacity expansion with no timeframe specified. We think the investment is for a greenfield expansion with capacity likely to ramp in 2H28 at the earliest, given the long lead time in equipment procurement. To note that, this capex amount is basically equivalent to total capex amount from 2020 to 23. As per the announcement, the company said they might fund the expansion with its own cash, bank loans, or other financing methods.
Earnings slightly raised; reiterate Buy -We raise 2026/27/28E earnings by 3%/1%/1% to factor in 2Q26 results mainly. We slightly raise our TP of NYPCB to NT$1,600 (30x 2027E EPS) from NT$1,550 (30x 2027E EPS) and reiterate our Buy rating.
Earnings Summary
| Year to 31Dec | Net Profit (NT$M) | DilutedEPS (NT$) | EPSgrowth (%) | P/E (x) | P/B (x) | ROE (%) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024A | 204 | 0.32 | -96.5 | na | 15.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2025A | 1,947 | 3.01 | 855.6 | na | 15.5 | 4.3 | 0.2 |
| 2026E | 10,920 | 16.9 | 460.9 | 65.4 | 13 | 21.6 | 0.9 |
| 2027E | 34,010 | 52.63 | 211.4 | 21.0 | 8.7 | 49.5 | 2.9 |
| 2028E | 56,122 | 86.85 | 65 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 56 | 4.4 |
Source: Powered by dataCentral
See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations.
n Buy
Price (06 Aug 26 13:30)
NT$1,105.00
Target price
NT$1,600.00↑
from NT$1,550.00
Expected share price return
44.8%
Expected dividend yield
0.9%
Expected total return
45.7%
Market Cap
NT$714,013M US$22,121M
Price Performance (RIC: 8046.TW, BB: 8046 TT)
Jack Chen AC
+886-2-8726-9091 jack1.chen@citi.com
Laura (Chia Yi) Chen +886-2-8726-9090 laura.cy.chen@citi.com
Nicholas Lai +886-2-8726-9093
nicholas.lai@citi.com
| 8046.TW:Fiscalyearend31-Dec | Price: NT$1,105.00; TP: NT$1,600.00; Market Cap: NT$714,013m; Recomm:Buy | Price: NT$1,105.00; TP: NT$1,600.00; Market Cap: NT$714,013m; Recomm:Buy | Price: NT$1,105.00; TP: NT$1,600.00; Market Cap: NT$714,013m; Recomm:Buy | Price: NT$1,105.00; TP: NT$1,600.00; Market Cap: NT$714,013m; Recomm:Buy | Price: NT$1,105.00; TP: NT$1,600.00; Market Cap: NT$714,013m; Recomm:Buy | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit&Loss(NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | Valuation ratios | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
| Sales revenue | 32,283 | 40,173 | 58,955 | 108,538 | 166,798 | PE(x) | na | na | 65.4 | 21.0 | 12.7 |
| Cost of sales | -31,926 | -36,526 | -43,838 | -63,911 | -93,499 | PB(x) | 15.7 | 15.5 | 13.0 | 8.7 | 6.1 |
| Gross profit | 358 | 3,647 | 15,117 | 44,627 | 73,299 | EV/EBITDA(x) | na | 79.5 | 35.1 | 14.1 | 8.8 |
| Gross Margin (%) | 1.1 | 9.1 | 25.6 | 41.1 | 43.9 | FCFyield (%) | 0.1 | 0.6 | -0.3 | -0.2 | 7.0 |
| EBITDA(Adj) | 5,167 | 8,851 | 20,119 | 50,495 | 79,835 | Dividend yield (%) | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 2.9 | 4.4 |
| EBITDAMargin(Adj) (%) | 16.0 | 22.0 | 34.1 | 46.5 | 47.9 | Payout ratio (%) | 317 | 66 | 60 | 60 | 56 |
| Depreciation | -6,433 | -6,869 | -7,113 | -9,375 | -11,822 | ROE(%) | 0.4 | 4.3 | 21.6 | 49.5 | 56.0 |
| Amortisation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Cashflow(NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
| EBIT (Adj) | -1,267 | 1,982 | 13,006 | 41,119 | 68,012 | EBITDA | 5,167 | 8,851 | 20,119 | 50,495 | 79,835 |
| EBIT Margin (Adj) (%) | -3.9 | 4.9 | 22.1 | 37.9 | 40.8 | Working capital | -3,425 | -2,143 | -6,367 | -11,711 | -10,145 |
| Net interest | 238 | 144 | 149 | 90 | 160 | Other | 1,470 | -36 | -2,086 | -7,109 | -11,890 |
| Associates | 23 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 14 | Operating cashflow | 3,212 | 6,672 | 11,666 | 31,674 | 57,800 |
| Non-Op/Except/Other Adj | 1,170 | 217 | 370 | 256 | 256 | Capex | -2,379 | -2,422 | -14,117 | -33,000 | -8,000 |
| Pre-tax profit | 163 | 2,346 | 13,537 | 41,476 | 68,442 | Net acq/disposals | 584 | 61 | 440 | -11 | -14 |
| Tax | 41 | -399 | -2,617 | -7,466 | -12,320 | Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Extraord./Min.Int./Pref.div. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Investing cashflow | -1,795 | -2,361 | -13,677 | -33,011 | -8,014 |
| Reported net profit | 204 | 1,947 | 10,920 | 34,010 | 56,122 | Dividends paid | -3,554 | -646 | -1,292 | -6,552 | -20,406 |
| Net Margin (%) | 0.6 | 4.8 | 18.5 | 31.3 | 33.6 | Financing cashflow | -5,267 | -4,202 | -2,681 | 3,368 | -20,486 |
| CoreNPAT | 204 | 1,947 | 10,920 | 34,010 | 56,122 | Net change in cash | -3,849 | 109 | -4,692 | 2,032 | 29,301 |
| Per share data | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | Free cashflow to s/holders | 833 | 4,250 | -2,451 | -1,326 | 49,800 |
| Reported EPS($) | 0.32 | 3.01 | 16.90 | 52.63 | 86.85 | ||||||
| Core EPS($) | 0.32 | 3.01 | 16.90 | 52.63 | 86.85 | ||||||
| DPS($) | 1.00 | 2.00 | 10.14 | 31.58 | 48.53 | ||||||
| CFPS($) | 4.97 | 10.33 | 18.05 | 49.02 | 89.45 | ||||||
| FCFPS($) | 1.29 | 6.58 | -3.79 | -2.05 | 77.07 | ||||||
| BVPS($) | 70.34 | 71.38 | 85.06 | 127.43 | 182.58 | ||||||
| Wtdavgordshares(m) | 646 | 646 | 646 | 646 | 646 | ||||||
| Wtdavgdiluted shares (m) | 646 | 646 | 646 | 646 | 646 | ||||||
| Growthrates | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | ||||||
| Sales revenue (%) | -23.6 | 24.4 | 46.8 | 84.1 | 53.7 | ||||||
| EBIT (Adj) (%) | -120.0 | 256.5 | 556.1 | 216.2 | 65.4 | ||||||
| CoreNPAT(%) | -96.5 | 855.6 | 460.9 | 211.4 | 65.0 | ||||||
| CoreEPS(%) | -96.5 | 855.6 | 460.9 | 211.4 | 65.0 | ||||||
| BalanceSheet(NT$m) | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | ||||||
| Cash&cashequiv. | 8,481 | 8,590 | 3,898 | 5,929 | 35,230 | ||||||
| Accounts receivables | 6,996 | 9,552 | 15,405 | 27,629 | 38,590 | ||||||
| Inventory | 4,101 | 5,068 | 9,323 | 16,721 | 23,354 | ||||||
| Net fixed &other | 40,450 | 35,874 | 43,362 | 66,986 | 63,164 | ||||||
| tangibles Goodwill &intangibles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
| Financial &other assets | 2,910 | 2,124 | 3,141 | 4,645 | 5,997 | ||||||
| Total assets | 62,938 | 61,207 | 75,128 | 121,910 | 166,334 | ||||||
| Accounts payable | 1,518 | 1,711 | 2,395 | 3,486 | 4,821 | ||||||
| Short-term debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
| Long-term debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10,000 | 10,000 | ||||||
| Provisions &other liab | 15,970 | 13,374 | 17,767 | 26,080 | 33,534 | ||||||
| Total liabilities | 17,488 | 15,085 | 20,163 | 39,566 | 48,354 | ||||||
| equity Minority interests | 0 | 0 | 0 | 82,344 0 | 117,980 0 | ||||||
| Shareholders' | 45,450 | 46,123 | 54,966 | ||||||||
| Total equity | 45,450 | 46,123 | 54,966 | 82,344 | 117,980 | ||||||
| Net debt (Adj) | -8,481 | -8,590 | -3,898 | 4,071 | -25,230 | ||||||
| Net debt to equity (Adj) (%) | -18.7 | ||||||||||
| For definitions of the items in this table, | please click here. | -18.6 | -7.1 | 4.9 | -21.4 |
Figure 2. NYCPB - Earnings Revisions
| 3Q26E | 3Q26E | 3Q26E | 4Q26E | 4Q26E | 4Q26E | 2026E | 2026E | 2026E | 2027E | 2027E | 2027E | 2028E | 2028E | 2028E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$mn) | New | Old | Chg. | New | Old | Chg. | New | Old | Chg. | New | Old | Chg. | New | Old | Chg. |
| Sales | 16,197 | 16,176 | 0% | 18,005 | 17,820 | 1% | 58,955 | 58,517 | 1% | 108,538 | 107,214 | 1% | 166,798 | 164,586 | 1% |
| Sequential growth (%) | 19% | 21% | 11% | 10% | 47% | 46% | 84% | 83% | 54% | 54% | |||||
| Gross profit | 4,738 | 4,486 | 6% | 5,248 | 5,197 | 1% | 15,117 | 14,502 | 4% | 44,627 | 44,000 | 1% | 73,299 | 72,477 | 1% |
| Opex | 583 | 582 | 0% | 648 | 642 | 1% | 2,111 | 2,123 | -1% | 3,508 | 3,645 | -4% | 5,287 | 5,180 | 2% |
| Operating profit | 4,155 | 3,904 | 6% | 4,600 | 4,555 | 1% | 13,006 | 12,379 | 5% | 41,119 | 40,355 | 2% | 68,012 | 67,297 | 1% |
| Pre-tax profit | 4,253 | 4,002 | 6% | 4,711 | 4,666 | 1% | 13,537 | 12,930 | 5% | 41,476 | 40,891 | 1% | 68,442 | 67,907 | 1% |
| Net income | 3,487 | 3,282 | 6% | 3,863 | 3,826 | 1% | 10,920 | 10,601 | 3% | 34,010 | 33,531 | 1% | 56,122 | 55,684 | 1% |
| EPS(NT$) | 5.40 | 5.08 | 6% | 5.98 | 5.92 | 1% | 16.90 | 16.41 | 3% | 52.63 | 51.89 | 1% | 86.85 | 86.18 | 1% |
| Gross margin (%) | 29.2% | 27.7% | +1.5 ppt | 29.1% | 29.2% | -0.0 ppt | 25.6% | 24.8% | +0.9 ppt | 41.1% | 41.0% | +0.1 ppt | 43.9% | 44.0% | -0.1 ppt |
| Opexratio (%) | 3.6% | 3.6% | +0.0ppt | 3.6% | 3.6% | -0.0 ppt | 3.6% | 3.6% | -0.0 ppt | 3.2% | 3.4% | -0.2 ppt | 3.2% | 3.1% | +0.0ppt |
| Operating margin (%) | 25.6% | 24.1% | +1.5 ppt | 25.5% | 25.6% | -0.0 ppt | 22.1% | 21.2% | +0.9 ppt | 37.9% | 37.6% | +0.2 ppt | 40.8% | 40.9% | -0.1 ppt |
| Net margin (%) | 21.5% | 20.3% | +1.2 ppt | 21.5% | 21.5% | -0.0 ppt | 18.5% | 18.1% | +0.4 ppt | 31.3% | 31.3% | +0.1 ppt | 33.6% | 33.8% | -0.2 ppt |
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Citi Research Estimates
| Figure1.NYCPB-2Q26Results | Figure1.NYCPB-2Q26Results | Figure1.NYCPB-2Q26Results | Figure1.NYCPB-2Q26Results | Figure1.NYCPB-2Q26Results | Figure1.NYCPB-2Q26Results | Figure1.NYCPB-2Q26Results | Figure1.NYCPB-2Q26Results | Figure1.NYCPB-2Q26Results | Figure1.NYCPB-2Q26Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$mn) | 2Q26 Actual | 1Q26 Actual | Q/Q | 2Q25 Actual | Y/Y | 2Q26 Citi | Diff. | 2Q26 Cons. | Diff. |
| Revenue | 13,575 | 11,177 | 21% | 9,583 | 42% | 13,344 | 2% | 13,496 | 1% |
| Gross profit | 3,360 | 1,771 | 90% | 769 | 337% | 3,048 | 10% | 2,879 | 17% |
| Gross margin | 24.7% | 15.8% | +8.9 ppt | 8.0% | +16.7 ppt | 22.8% | +1.9 ppt | 21.3% | +3.4 ppt |
| Op. profit | 2,899 | 1,352 | 114% | 366 | 692% | 2,567 | 13% | 2,507 | 16% |
| OPmargin | 21.4% | 12.1% | +9.3 ppt | 3.8% | +17.5 ppt | 19.2% | +2.1 ppt | 18.6% | +2.8 ppt |
| Net income | 2,262 | 1,309 | 73% | -187 | -1307% | 2,184 | 4% | 2,174 | 4% |
| EPS(NT$) | 3.50 | 2.03 | 73% | (0.29) | -1307% | 3.38 | 4% | 3.34 | 5% |
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Citi Research Estimates, Company Reports, Bloomberg
Figure 3. NYCPB - Forecast Summary
| NYPCB | 2026 | 2026 | 2027 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2028E | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (NT$ in Mn, year-end Dec) | 1Q | 2Q | 3QE | 4QE | 1QE 21,498 | 2QE 25,247 | 3QE 29,501 | 4QE 32,292 | 31,094 | 38,513 | 52,228 | 64,647 | 42,253 | 32,283 | 40,173 | 2026E 58,955 | 2027E 108,538 | 166,798 | |
| Revenue | 11,177 | 13,575 | 16,197 | 18,005 | -14,572 | -17,063 | -18,711 | 28,833 -28,483 | -29,467 | -32,761 | -37,346 | -38,779 | -34,075 | -31,926 | -36,526 | -43,838 | -63,911 | ||
| COGS GrossProfit | -9,406 1,771 | -10,215 3,360 | -11,460 4,738 | -12,757 5,248 | -13,565 7,933 | 10,675 | 12,437 | 13,581 | 349 | 1,627 | 5,752 | 14,883 | 25,868 | 8,177 | 358 | 3,647 | 15,117 | 44,627 | -93,499 73,299 |
| Operating Expense | -419 | -460 | -583 | -648 | -731 | -858 | -885 | -1,033 | -1,535 | -1,555 | -1,644 | -2,012 | -2,293 | -1,847 | -1,624 | -1,665 | -2,111 | -3,508 | -5,287 |
| -460 | -583 | -648 | -2,012 | -2,293 | -5,287 | ||||||||||||||
| SG&Aexpenses R&D expenses | -419 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -731 0 | -858 0 | -885 0 | -1,033 0 | -1,535 | -1,555 | -1,644 0 | 0 | 0 | -1,847 0 | -1,624 0 | -1,665 0 | -2,111 0 | -3,508 0 | 0 |
| EBIT | 1,352 | 2,899 | 4,155 | 4,600 | 7,202 | 9,817 | 11,552 | 12,548 | 0 -1,186 | 0 | 4,108 | 12,871 | 23,575 | 6,330 | 1,982 | 13,006 | 41,119 | 68,012 | |
| Net Interest Income | 34 | 37 | 39 | 39 | 71 | -1,267 | 149 | 90 | 160 | ||||||||||
| Net Other Income | 212 | 39 | 59 | 72 | 15 | 15 60 | 30 59 | 30 74 | 5 | 50 | 37 -142 | 14 210 | 114 1,673 | 308 469 | 238 1,192 | 144 219 | 382 | 267 | 270 |
| Pre-Tax Profit | 1,598 | 2,975 | 4,253 | 74 | 9,892 | 11,641 | 12,651 | 597 | 264 | 25,362 | 163 | 2,346 | 13,537 | 68,442 | |||||
| Tax | 4,711 | 7,291 | -584 | 385 | 4,003 | 13,095 | 7,107 | 41,476 | -12,320 | ||||||||||
| Net Profit | 290 1,309 | 714 2,262 | 765 | 848 | 1,312 | 1,781 | 2,095 9,546 | 2,277 10,374 | 0 | -77 | -337 | -2,514 | -5,946 | -1,290 | 41 | -399 1,947 | -2,617 10,920 | -7,466 34,010 | 56,122 |
| 3,487 | 3,863 | 5,979 | 8,111 | -584 | 308 | 3,666 | 10,582 | 19,416 | 5,817 | 204 | 16.90 | ||||||||
| EPS (NT$) | 2.03 | 3.50 | 5.40 | 5.98 | 9.25 | 12.55 | 14.77 | 16.05 | -0.90 | 0.48 | 5.67 | 16.38 | 30.05 | 9.00 | 0.32 | 3.01 | 52.63 | 86.85 | |
| Revenue breakdown (%) | |||||||||||||||||||
| PCB | 6% | 9% | 11% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 34% | 31% | 25% | 19% | 14% | 17% | 21% | 14% | 9% | 6% | 4% |
| PP | 29% | 28% | 26% | 26% | 21% | 21% | 20% | 17% | 32% | 29% | 29% | 31% | 27% | 22% | 30% | 29% | 27% | 20% | 15% |
| FC | 64% | 62% | 63% | 65% | 72% | 72% | 75% | 78% | 33% | 41% | 46% | 50% | 58% | 62% | 49% | 57% | 64% | 75% | 81% |
| Margins (%) | |||||||||||||||||||
| GrossMargin | 15.8 | 24.7 | 29.2 | 29.1 | 36.9 | 42.3 | 42.2 | 42.1 | 1.2 | 5.2 | 14.9 | 28.5 | 40.0 | 19.4 | 1.1 | 9.1 | 25.6 | 41.1 | 43.9 |
| Operating Margin | 12.1 | 21.4 | 25.6 | 25.5 | 33.5 | 38.9 | 39.2 | 38.9 | -4.1 | 0.2 | 10.7 | 24.6 | 36.5 | 15.0 | -3.9 | 4.9 | 22.1 | 37.9 | 40.8 |
| Net Margin | 11.7 | 16.7 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 27.8 | 32.1 | 32.4 | 32.1 | -2.0 | 1.0 | 9.5 | 20.3 | 30.0 | 13.8 | 0.6 | 4.8 | 18.5 | 31.3 | 33.6 |
| Sequential Growth (%) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Revenue | 0.1 | 21.5 | 19.3 | 11.2 | 19.4 | 17.4 | 16.8 | 9.5 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 23.9 | 35.6 | 23.8 | -34.6 | -23.6 | 24.4 | 46.8 | 84.1 | 53.7 |
| GrossProfit | 26.7 | 89.7 | 41.0 | 10.8 | 51.2 | 34.6 | 16.5 | 9.2 | n.m. | 365.5 | 253.6 | 158.7 | 73.8 | -68.4 | -95.6 | 919.6 | 314.5 | 195.2 | 64.2 |
| EBIT | 40.4 | 114.4 | 43.3 | 10.7 | 56.6 | 36.3 | 17.7 | 8.6 | n.m. | n.m. | 5659.7 | 213.3 | 83.2 | -73.1 | n.m. | n.m. | 556.1 | 216.2 | 65.4 |
| Net Profit | 8.9 | 72.8 | 54.2 | 10.8 | 54.8 | 35.7 | 17.7 | 8.7 | n.m. | n.m. | 1089.4 | 188.6 | 83.5 | -70.0 | -96.5 | 855.6 | 460.9 | 211.4 | 65.0 |
| EPS | 8.9 | 72.8 | 54.2 | 10.8 | 54.8 | 35.7 | 17.7 | 8.7 | n.m. | n.m. | 1089.4 | 188.6 | 83.5 | -70.0 | -96.5 | 855.6 | 460.9 | 211.4 | 65.0 |
© 2026 Citigroup Inc. No redistribution without Citigroup's written permission.
Source: Citi Research Estimates, Company Reports
NT$
1,704
1,420
1,136
852
568
284
0
Aug 25
454% Upside
NT$ 1,600.00
A 45% Upside
Bull/Bear: NYPCB (8046.TW)
BASE Assumptions
+47%/ +84% revenue growth for 2026E/27E
- 25.6%/41.1% GM and +22.1%/ +37.9% OPM for 2026E/27E
BEAR Assumptions
• US entity list impact more than expected
- Weaker traditional PCB demand
- Lower-than-expected margins
NT$ 800.00
• 28% Downside
NYPCB
Company description
Established in 1997, Nan Ya Printed Circuit Board (NYPCB) is a technology subsidiary of the Formosa Plastics Group. Nan Ya PCB's main products include conventional PCB, HDI, Flip Chip substrate (FCBGA and FCCSP), Wire Bond Substrate, etc. The company has manufacturing sites in Taiwan and Kunshan, China.
Investment strategy
We rate NYPCB shares as Buy. We believe ABF/BT should see a solid recovery in 2026 on robust AI demand: 1) NYPCB is the purest ABF play with a significant earnings turnaround, driven by growing chip sizes and layer counts for AI ASIC/networking; and 2) the BT business should benefit from price hikes on rising memory demand and T glass shortage. Considering T glass support from NYPCB's parent company, we believe NYPCB would have a better chance to win additional AI ASIC/networking business going forward.
Valuation
Our DCF-based TP for NYPCB is NT$1,600. With a risk-free rate of 4.30% (10year government bond rate), a market risk premium of 7% and an equity beta of 1.22 (YTD weekly share price), we calculate NYPCB's WACC as 12.8%. Our TP is equivalent to 94x/30x 2026E EPS/BVPS, which reflects its high P/E multiple during upcycles. NYPCB traded at 15-20x P/E during its 2003-2008 upcycle driven by PC/NB demand strength. In 2010-11 when the market was recovering from the global financial crisis, NYPCB traded at 25-35x P/E. In the last 2019-22 upcycle when ABF was in shortage, NYPCB traded at 30-40x P/E.
Risks
Key downside risks that could prevent the NYPCB shares from reaching our target price include: 1) weaker-than-expected ABF demand from key customers; 2) BT business seasonality weakness and fewer-than-expected price hikes; and 3) severe T glass shortages that cause a bottleneck to its production.
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