Stock LLM Wiki

260701_2345_智邦_daiwa_accton

更新 2026-07-02

PDF 原檔:260701_2345_智邦_daiwa_accton_original.pdf

圖片清單(已驗證 2026-07-02)

檔名 size 分類 親眼所見內容
_001.png 27KB 裝飾·valuation 股價表現圖
_002.png 21KB 裝飾·valuation 股價表現圖(相對指數)
_003.png 35KB 裝飾·valuation 1-year forward PER bands
_004.png 31KB 裝飾·valuation 依產品別營收拆解圖

全數為財務/估值圖表 → lib 頁不嵌入。

原始內容

Taiwan

Accton Technology (2345 TT)

Target price:

TWD3,666.00 (from TWD3,222.00)

Share price (1 Jul): TWD2,660.00 | Up/downside: +37.8%

Next revenue momentum is around the corner

  • Strong revenue pick-up likely due to Amazon's Trn3 ramp-up
  • Long-term growth opportunities on track with solid capacity increase
  • Reaffirming our Buy (1) rating; lifting our 12M TP to TWD3,666

What's new: Trainium 3 will soon begin mass production and is likely to become the key catalyst for the supply chain.

What's the impact: Near-term: ASIC AI server shipment strength is likely around the corner. Based on our supply chain check and one rail kit company's quarter-to-date revenue strength in 2Q26, we believe the entire supply chain for Trainium will benefit from the next generation that will begin mass production from June. We also revise up our shipment forecast for Amazon's Trainium from 2.6m to 3.2m (upward revision by c.25%) in 2027, as we believe the hyperscalers would focus more on ASIC AI server development due to budget concerns given the high-cost inflation environment (eg, memory, substrate). Correspondingly, we raise our revenue forecasts by 11-18% for 2026-27. We now forecast Accton's revenue in 2Q26/3Q26 to reach TWD87/107bn (vs. our prior estimates of TWD83/91bn). A stronger-than-expected revenue momentum will likely act as the key share price catalyst for Accton.

Long-term development: new growth opportunities largely on track.

Given the strong AI demand ahead, we expect Accton's capacity to increase by 30-50% from the Taoyuan and Zhubei plants in 2026 (vs. 30% earlier). Also, Accton is still eager to ramp up its new capacity in the US, Malaysia, and Vietnam (third phase) in 2027 to meet the strong demand for AI infrastructure (for both switch and AI card business). For its first client, we still expect the scale-up switch from the next generation (T4) to become the new growth driver for Accton in 2H27-2028. As for the second client, we expect the rising AI card business and potential scale-up switch to be potential growth drivers. Moreover, we believe Accton's further penetration into the L11 level would present opportunities for Accton beyond 2027. We are not overly concerned by the potential gross margin dilution as Accton would be able to provide most of the value within L11 except for memory, power, and rail kit. Finally, we see Accton aggressively developing CPO-related technology to provide value add when designing next generation switches.

What we recommend: We raise our 2026-28E EPS by 11-22% to factor in higher Trainium shipment in the forecast period. We raise our 12M TP to TWD3,666, based on an unchanged PER multiple of 35x (higher than its past-3-year range of 10-33x), applied to our 1-year forward EPS forecast. The PEG of 0.71 (2025-28E EPS CAGR of 49%) makes our target PER undemanding. Key downside risk: worse-than-expected ASIC server and switch demand.

How we differ: Our 2026-28E EPS are 1-6% higher than the Bloomberg consensus, likely due to our positive view on Accton's revenue growth.

1 July 2026

5

Daiwa

3

2

1

Buy

Sheng Cheng

(886) 2 8758 6253

sheng.cheng@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Allan Wang (886) 2 8758 6249 allan.wang@daiwacm-cathay.com.tw

Forecast revisions (%)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue change 10.8 18.3 12.7
Net profit change 20.5 21.5 10.8
Core EPS (FD) change 20.5 21.5 10.8

Source: Daiwa forecasts

Share price performance

260701_2345_智邦_daiwa_accton_001
260701_2345_智邦_daiwa_accton_002
12-month range 738.00-2,675.00
Market cap (USDbn) 46.85
3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 315.50
Shares outstanding (m) 561
Major shareholder Chin Chieh Min Co. Ltd (8.1%)

Financial summary (TWD)

Year to 31 Dec 26E 27E 28E
Revenue (m) 374,820 519,281 717,767
Operating profit (m) 55,858 78,396 108,615
Net profit (m) 45,159 62,762 86,639
Core EPS (fully-diluted) 80.481 111.852 154.404
EPS change (%) 71.4 39.0 38.0
Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 5.6 2.4 0.6
PER (x) 33.1 23.8 17.2
Dividend yield (%) 0.6 0.8 0.8
DPS 15.0 22.0 22.0
PBR (x) 17.2 10.9 7.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 24.5 17.0 11.7
ROE (%) 62.6 56.1 49.7

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Accton: revenue and earnings forecasts vs. the consensus

2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2028E 2028E 2028E
(TWDm) Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus Previous New Consensus
Revenue 338,373 374,820 361,803 439,089 519,281 502,843 637,062 717,767 670,378
Diff (%) 10.8% 3.6% 18.3% 3.3% 12.7% 7.1%
Gross Margin (%) 18.5% 19.3% 19.1% 18.7% 18.9% 19.2% 18.9% 18.6% 19.3%
Operating profit 46,357 55,859 52,830 64,293 78,396 75,802 97,901 108,615 106,964
Op Margin (%) 13.7% 14.9% 14.6% 14.6% 15.1% 15.1% 15.4% 15.1% 16.0%
Net profit 37,477 45,160 42,752 51,656 62,762 61,298 78,209 86,639 86,150
EPS (TWD) 66.79 80.48 76.19 92.06 111.85 109.24 139.38 154.40 153.53
Diff (%) 20.5% 5.6% 21.5% 2.4% 10.8% 0.6%

Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts

Accton: quarterly and annual P&L highlights

2026E 2026E 2026E 2026E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2027E 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
(TWDm) 1Q 2QE 3QE 4QE 1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE
Net revenue 70,121 86,778 106,949 110,972 109,335 128,178 139,474 142,295 248,320 374,820 519,281 717,767
COGS -56,412 -69,811 -86,508 -89,806 -88,621 -103,951 -113,096 -115,484 -203,401 -302,537 -421,151 -584,177
Gross profit 13,701 16,967 20,441 21,166 20,714 24,226 26,378 26,811 44,886 72,275 98,130 133,590
Operating expenses -3,652 -3,992 -4,278 -4,494 -4,647 -4,871 -4,951 -5,265 -12,752 -16,417 -19,734 -24,975
Operating profit 10,049 12,975 16,163 16,672 16,068 19,356 21,427 21,546 32,135 55,859 78,396 108,615
Non-operating profit 313 246 253 265 247 252 254 254 782 1,076 1,007 1,011
Pre-tax profit 10,362 13,222 16,416 16,936 16,314 19,608 21,681 21,800 32,917 56,935 79,403 109,627
Income taxes -2,029 -2,777 -3,447 -3,557 -3,426 -4,118 -4,553 -4,578 -6,611 -11,809 -16,675 -23,022
Net profit 8,341 10,454 12,977 13,388 12,897 15,499 17,136 17,231 26,342 45,160 62,762 86,639
Net EPS (TWD) 14.87 18.63 23.13 23.86 22.98 27.62 30.54 30.71 46.95 80.48 111.85 154.40
Operating Ratios
Gross margin 19.5% 19.6% 19.1% 19.1% 18.9% 18.9% 18.9% 18.8% 18.1% 19.3% 18.9% 18.6%
Operating margin 14.3% 15.0% 15.1% 15.0% 14.7% 15.1% 15.4% 15.1% 12.9% 14.9% 15.1% 15.1%
Pre-tax margin 14.8% 15.2% 15.3% 15.3% 14.9% 15.3% 15.5% 15.3% 13.3% 15.2% 15.3% 15.3%
Net margin 11.9% 12.0% 12.1% 12.1% 11.8% 12.1% 12.3% 12.1% 10.6% 12.0% 12.1% 12.1%
YoY (%)
Net revenue 64% 43% 47% 54% 56% 48% 30% 28% 125% 51% 39% 38%
Gross profit 59% 56% 63% 64% 51% 43% 29% 27% 97% 61% 36% 36%
Operating profit 70% 60% 80% 83% 60% 49% 33% 29% 136% 74% 40% 39%
Pre-tax profit 65% 100% 69% 64% 57% 48% 32% 29% 118% 73% 39% 38%
Net profit 63% 108% 66% 60% 55% 48% 32% 29% 120% 71% 39% 38%
QoQ (%)
Net revenue -3% 24% 23% 4% -1% 17% 9% 2%
Gross profit 6% 24% 20% 4% -2% 17% 9% 2%
Operating profit 10% 29% 25% 3% -4% 20% 11% 1%
Pre-tax profit 0% 28% 24% 3% -4% 20% 11% 1%
Net profit 0% 25% 24% 3% -4% 20% 11% 1%

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Accton: 1-year forward PER bands

260701_2345_智邦_daiwa_accton_003

Source: TEJ, Daiwa forecasts

Accton Technology (2345 TT): 1 July 2026

Accton: revenue breakdown by product

260701_2345_智邦_daiwa_accton_004

Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts

Daiwa

Financial summary

Key assumptions

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Switch Shipment (k units) 3,053.0 3,538.1 4,035.6 4,381.5 4,739.1 5,125.9 5,544.3 5,996.8
Network Application Shipment (k units) 2,417.5 2,891.4 3,638.9 4,160.1 4,814.8 5,572.4 6,449.3 7,464.2
Switch ASP (USD) 463.8 451.4 506.6 454.6 573.2 913.1 1,019.5 1,153.0

Profit and loss (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Switch 40,359 45,521 58,270 56,763 77,426 133,399 161,093 197,057
Network Application 10,916 20,472 17,468 13,043 14,560 15,351 16,854 18,616
Other Revenue 8,323 11,212 8,450 40,618 156,334 226,071 341,334 502,093
Total Revenue 59,599 77,205 84,188 110,425 248,320 374,820 519,281 717,767
Other income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COGS (48,254) (60,687) (64,926) (87,647) (203,433) (302,545) (421,151) (584,177)
SG&A (3,236) (3,913) (3,981) (4,474) (5,782) (7,129) (8,121) (10,519)
Other op.expenses (2,668) (2,973) (3,781) (4,702) (6,970) (9,289) (11,613) (14,456)
Operating profit 5,441 9,633 11,501 13,601 32,135 55,858 78,396 108,615
Net-interest inc./(exp.) (10) 111 566 782 987 986 1,007 1,011
Assoc/forex/extraord./others 300 532 (335) 750 (205) 90 0 0
Pre-tax profit 5,731 10,276 11,732 15,134 32,917 56,934 79,403 109,627
Tax (1,026) (2,110) (2,812) (3,135) (6,611) (11,809) (16,675) (23,022)
Min. int./pref. div./others 0 0 0 1 36 34 34 34
Net profit (reported) 4,705 8,166 8,920 12,000 26,342 45,159 62,762 86,639
Net profit (adjusted) 4,705 8,166 8,920 12,000 26,342 45,159 62,762 86,639
EPS (reported)(TWD) 8.403 14.578 15.919 21.385 46.945 80.481 111.852 154.404
EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 8.403 14.578 15.919 21.385 46.945 80.481 111.852 154.404
EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 8.403 14.578 15.919 21.385 46.945 80.481 111.852 154.404
DPS (TWD) 6.474 5.976 7.471 9.961 10.957 15.000 22.000 22.000
EBIT 5,441 9,633 11,501 13,601 32,135 55,858 78,396 108,615
EBITDA 6,207 10,499 12,455 14,764 33,861 57,849 80,893 111,580

Cash flow (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Profit before tax 5,731 10,276 11,732 15,134 32,917 56,934 79,403 109,627
Depreciation and amortisation 767 867 953 1,163 1,727 1,991 2,497 2,965
Tax paid (1,026) (2,110) (2,812) (3,135) (6,611) (11,809) (16,675) (23,022)
Change in working capital (3,574) (1,670) 2,131 (3,784) 3,360 (9,260) (7,393) (10,153)
Other operational CF items (529) 2,361 6,366 565 3,459 0 0 (0)
Cash flow from operations 1,368 9,723 18,371 9,942 34,852 37,857 57,833 79,417
Capex (480) (952) (2,245) (2,762) (4,894) (3,373) (3,116) (4,307)
Net (acquisitions)/disposals 2,261 (5,108) (2,276) 629 (12,347) 0 0 0
Other investing CF items 2,119 (45) (1,146) 2,929 (1,907) 0 0 0
Cash flow from investing 3,900 (6,104) (5,666) 796 (19,149) (3,373) (3,116) (4,307)
Change in debt 0 2,325 (2,564) (338) (187) 0 0 0
Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends paid (3,622) (3,346) (4,185) (5,582) (6,148) (8,417) (12,345) (12,345)
Other financing CF items (320) (261) (307) (295) (327) 4 4 4
Cash flow from financing (3,943) (1,282) (7,056) (6,215) (6,663) (8,413) (12,341) (12,340)
Forex effect/others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change in cash 1,325 2,336 5,649 4,523 9,041 26,070 42,377 62,770
Free cash flow 888 8,772 16,126 7,181 29,958 34,483 54,717 75,110

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Accton Technology (2345 TT): 1 July 2026

Daiwa

Financial summary continued …

Balance sheet (TWDm)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Cash & short-term investment 7,592 15,015 24,333 25,465 51,463 77,535 119,911 182,681
Inventory 13,246 12,788 13,551 19,371 30,202 36,867 51,321 71,188
Accounts receivable 10,731 13,730 11,722 21,714 38,653 45,560 63,120 87,246
Other current assets 214 349 386 4,089 749 749 749 749
Total current assets 31,782 41,883 49,991 70,639 121,067 160,711 235,102 341,864
Fixed assets 1,487 1,804 3,181 5,445 9,228 10,610 11,228 12,570
Goodwill & intangibles 109 168 178 1,016 771 771 771 771
Other non-current assets 1,642 2,206 3,225 9,366 12,165 4,572 4,572 4,572
Total assets 35,021 46,061 56,576 86,467 143,231 176,663 251,672 359,777
Short-term debt 0 0 133 175 333 333 333 333
Accounts payable 11,567 12,478 13,681 25,955 58,486 62,798 87,419 121,258
Other current liabilities 6,076 9,090 15,265 20,790 23,365 23,365 23,365 23,365
Total current liabilities 17,643 21,568 29,080 46,920 82,184 86,496 111,117 144,956
Long-term debt 1,003 2,605 538 281 84 84 84 84
Other non-current liabilities 822 1,460 1,771 2,831 3,328 3,328 3,328 3,328
Total liabilities 19,468 25,633 31,388 50,032 85,596 89,908 114,529 148,369
Share capital 5,599 5,601 5,604 5,611 5,611 5,611 5,611 5,611
Reserves/R.E./others 9,954 14,827 19,584 30,715 51,928 81,048 131,436 205,701
Shareholders' equity 15,553 20,428 25,188 36,327 57,540 86,659 137,047 211,312
Minority interests 0 0 0 108 96 96 96 96
Total equity & liabilities 35,021 46,061 56,576 86,467 143,231 176,663 251,672 359,777
EV 1,485,985 1,480,164 1,468,912 1,467,672 1,441,623 1,415,552 1,373,175 1,310,405
Net debt/(cash) (6,588) (12,410) (23,662) (25,010) (51,046) (77,117) (119,494) (182,264)
BVPS (TWD) 27.777 36.470 44.950 64.740 102.544 154.441 244.240 376.592

Key ratios (%)

Year to 31 Dec 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026E 2027E 2028E
Sales (YoY) 9.4 29.5 9.0 31.2 124.9 50.9 38.5 38.2
EBITDA (YoY) (12.3) 69.1 18.6 18.5 129.3 70.8 39.8 37.9
Operating profit (YoY) (15.0) 77.0 19.4 18.3 136.3 73.8 40.3 38.5
Net profit (YoY) (6.8) 73.6 9.2 34.5 119.5 71.4 39.0 38.0
Core EPS (fully-diluted) (YoY) (6.9) 73.5 9.2 34.3 119.5 71.4 39.0 38.0
Gross-profit margin 19.0 21.4 22.9 20.6 18.1 19.3 18.9 18.6
EBITDA margin 10.4 13.6 14.8 13.4 13.6 15.4 15.6 15.5
Operating-profit margin 9.1 12.5 13.7 12.3 12.9 14.9 15.1 15.1
Net profit margin 7.9 10.6 10.6 10.9 10.6 12.0 12.1 12.1
ROAE 31.3 45.4 39.1 39.0 56.1 62.6 56.1 49.7
ROAA 14.2 20.1 17.4 16.8 22.9 28.2 29.3 28.3
ROCE 33.8 48.7 47.0 43.4 67.7 76.9 69.8 62.2
ROIC 64.2 90.1 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a
Net debt to equity n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Effective tax rate 17.9 20.5 24.0 20.7 20.1 20.7 21.0 21.0
Accounts receivable (days) 61.0 57.8 55.2 55.3 44.4 41.0 38.2 38.2
Current ratio (x) 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.4
Net interest cover (x) 548.6 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Net dividend payout 71.7 71.1 51.2 62.6 51.2 32.0 27.3 19.7
Free cash flow yield 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.5 2.0 2.3 3.7 5.0

Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts

Company profile

Founded in 1988, Accton is dedicated to the design and manufacturing of enterprise networking and communication products. With its long-term experience and expertise, Accton is one of the leading open-source networking ODM partners for major players worldwide, with particular focuses on data centres, telco carriers and campus networks. Major products include enterprise switches, metro access switches, network applications and wireless products.

Accton Technology (2345 TT): 1 July 2026

Daiwa

ESG analysis

ESG risks

Risks Management Analyst comments
G Executive/board quality 1 Accton's board has 8 directors, with 4 independent directors. The independent directors account for 50% of all directors. A total of 5 board meetings were held in 2023, and the average attendee rate was 96%. The background of independent directors is diversified and their competence includes networking technology, business management, acounting, and work experience in the medical industry. We deem the diversified background as a positive factor for the company's board quality. Besides, the Chairman and CEO are not the same person, which increases the board and executive management's quality. Based on its board structure and key executive hiring, we believe that Accton has already professionalised the family business by allowing external professionals to run the business for major shareholders.
Capital management 1 We attribute the slightly lower payout ratio to the higher capacities investment in its new Zhunan and Vietnam plants due to the US-China tension. The DPS CAGR in the past 10 years was c.18%, which showcased Accton's capability in capital management. The continuous improvement in networking capabilities (eg, 100G switch, 400G switch) has helped it to differentiate itself from other competitors and successfully penetrate into the white-box switch supply chain for major US cloud service providers recently.
Related party & transaction 1 There was no related parties transactions in 2024. We see limited risk from related party transactions.
S Data security 2 To ensure information security for customers and the company, Accton passed the CNS 27001:2014 (ISO/IEC 27001:2013) in 2016 and will complete re-certification for information security every year. Apart from the global information security standards setup, Accton also takes some physical measures to improve its information security, including: 1) implementing power supply improvement plans in the server room by replacing the UPS system and strengthening the power stability, so that the servers can remain in operation and services are not interrupted due to external power outages. 2) purchasing vulnerability analysis software to execute vulnerability scans and penetration tests

Note: Management score represents a company's ability to manage/benefit from certain ESG topics. The scores range from 1 to 3, with 1 being the strongest.

Update Date: 5 Nov 2025

Source: Daiwa, Company

Accton Technology (2345 TT): 1 July 2026

Daiwa