260528_ms_old-memory

PDF 原檔：260528_ms_old-memory_original.pdf

原始內容

M May 28, 2026 08:00 AM GMT

Greater China Semiconductors | Asia Pacific

Old Memory: Upside Surprise Ahead

We think wider supply/demand will boost earnings. SLC NAND and Si Cap should offer re-rating potential. We upgrade Winbond and Nanya to OW.

Key Takeaways

• We reduce our supply assumptions from Micron in the near term and for Hynix in the next few quarters.
• We believe DDR4 enterprise demand from both eSSD and datacenters is getting stronger.
• Our DDR4 supply/demand model suggests a 19-20% gap for 2H26 vs. the prior 14%, and an 18-20% gap for 2027-28.
• SiCap and SLC NAND (for servers) could be a potential re-rating factor.
• NOR is seeing more tightness on mature foundry shortages.

We had been too conservative; supply/demand gap widening in 2H: We

downgraded Winbond and Nanya in March 2026, citing a potentially narrowing supply/demand gap into 2H26 and moderating pricing hikes. We now believe the gap could widen into 2H. We also expect rising CPU server demand to drive enterprise demand growth into 2027. As a result, we upgrade both stocks back to OW.

Less supply and rising demand = stronger pricing: We believe the recent Micron (covered by Joseph Moore) announcement (link) will mean reduced supply in the next 2-4 quarters, reflecting equipment movement from Taiwan to the US. At the same time, we think Hynix's (covered by Shawn Kim) Wuxi capacity for D4/LPD4 will be further reduced for DDR5 back-end capacity. We thus expect DDR4 pricing to continue to trend up, likely 20% in 3Q. Our supply/demand models suggests a 1920% gap in 2H26 and an 18-20% gap in 2027/28.

SiCap and SLC NAND could be re-rating factors: SiCap (link) is a new growth driver for niche memory vendors. Recent developments for servers (for high performance NAND) also suggest potential adoption of SLC in datacenters, as SLC is ideal for fast reading and writing speed. Currently, SLC NAND could be supplied by Greater China vendors such as GigaDevice, Winbond, and Macronix.

Estimate changes: For Winbond , we raise 2026, 2027 and 2028 EPS estimates by 23%, 65% and 94%, respectively, to reflect DDR4 pricing strength and opportunities from SiCap and SLC NAND. For Nanya , we increase respective estimates by 15%, 29% and 33% to reflect DDR4 pricing strength; we also turn positive on more LTAs with server and enterprise SSD customers, along with their additional 5kwpm capacity to DDR5 starting 3Q26. For GigaDevice , we raise 2026e by 58% and 2027e by 60% to reflect DDR4 pricing strength and opportunities from SLC NAND.

Idea

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.