PDF 原檔：260521_6531愛普_ms__original.pdf
原始內容
M May 21, 2026 03:05 PM GMT
AP Memory Technology Corp | Asia Pacific
Too early to be concerned about Si-Cap competition; OW
We think the market is overly concerned oabout competition in the early cycle. Our supply/demand model suggests ongoing supply shortage in the next three years. Time to accumulate more.
Our further thoughts on the Si-Cap competition (link): SEMCO (covered by Shawn Kim) was already a player in the Si-Cap market, but we believe its recently announced ~US$1bn contract introduces competition to AP Memory's market share. We believe SEMCO's Si-Cap business uses a stacking technology as well and aims to address a similar application - i.e., EMIB; the advantage is the better foundry process from a potential Taiwanese partner, Winbond. That said, we think it will take time to acquire the equipment and go through qualification with substrate vendors, EMIB, and end customers.
Our supply/demand model suggests supply shortage in the next three years: For the non-TSM silicon capacitor market, we expect supply shortage of 57%for 2026, 16% for 2027, and 11% for 2028 (please refer to our supply/demand model: Exhibit 1 ). We see EMIB (TPU v10/v11 and potentially auto chips in the future), AI GPUs in China, and smartphone SoC as major market opportunities for silicon capacitors. Supply remains constrained with limited global capacity available.
Remain OW on AP Memory; VHM is the next driver: We maintain our earnings estimates and price target at NT$1,555. In addition to Si-Cap, we think the market overlooks another big opportunity from VHM.
Remain OW on Powerchip : Powerchip is fully loaded with pricing up on all products (analog, logic, memory).
Remain EW on Winbond: We believe SEMCO will act as a fabless design company for its new contract, leveraging Winbond as its foundry partner. We view this as positive for Winbond, but we expect limited revenue contribution - only a lowsingle-digit pat of the revenue mix in 2027e. Our price target is unchanged.
Idea
| Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Daniel Yen, CFA Equity Analyst Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2863 |
|---|---|
| Charlie Chan Equity Analyst Charlie.Chan@morganstanley.com Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ | +886 2 2730-1725 |
| Daisy Dai, CFA Equity Analyst Daisy.Dai@morganstanley.com | +852 2848-7310 |
| Tiffany Yeh Equity Analyst Tiffany.Yeh@morganstanley.com | +886 2 7712-3032 |
| Ethan Jia Research Associate Ethan.Jia@morganstanley.com | +852 3963-2287 |
AP Memory Technology Corp (6531.TW, 6531 TT)
Greater China Technology Semiconductors | Taiwan
| Stock Rating | Stock Rating | Stock Rating | Overweight | Overweight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry View | Industry View | Industry View | Attractive | Attractive |
| Price target | Price target | Price target | NT$1,555.00 | NT$1,555.00 |
| Up/downside to price target (%) | Up/downside to price target (%) | Up/downside to price target (%) | 78 | 78 |
| Shr price, close (May 21, 2026) | Shr price, close (May 21, 2026) | Shr price, close (May 21, 2026) | NT$876.00 | NT$876.00 |
| 52-Week Range | 52-Week Range | 52-Week Range | ||
| Mkt cap, curr (mn) | Mkt cap, curr (mn) | Mkt cap, curr (mn) | ||
| Avg daily trading value (mn) | Avg daily trading value (mn) | Avg daily trading value (mn) | NT$2,051 | NT$2,051 |
| Fiscal Year Ending | 12/25 | 12/26e | 12/27e | 12/28e |
| EPS (NT$)** | 7.74 | 17.65 | 34.34 | 60.74 |
| Prior EPS (NT$)** | - | - | - | - |
| EPS (NT$)§ | 6.30 | 17.77 | 27.46 | 49.58 |
| Revenue, net (NT$ mn) | 5,658 | 9,601 | 17,829 | 30,478 |
| EBITDA (NT$ mn) | 1,474 | 3,037 | 6,491 | 11,733 |
| ModelWare net inc (NT | 1,258 | 2,874 | 5,591 | 9,888 |
| $ mn) | ||||
| P/E | 57.9 | 49.6 | 25.5 | 14.4 |
| ROE (%) | 10.6 | 23.5 | 39.2 | 55.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 41.3 | 42.4 | 19.5 | 10.5 |
| Div yld (%) | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare framework
** = Based on consensus methodology
- § = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates
e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates
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Silicon capacitor supply/demand model
Exhibit 1: Silicon capacitor supply/demand model
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand (non-TSM) | ||||
| EMIB - TPU v10 2nm Humufish shipment (k units) | 1,000.0 | 2,500.0 | 1,000.0 | |
| Capacitor per chip assumption | 150.0 | 150.0 | 150.0 | |
| Die per wafer | 7,000.0 | 7,000.0 | 7,000.0 | |
| Wafers (k units) | 21.4 | 53.6 | 21.4 | |
| EMIB - TPU v11 A16 Icefish shipment (k units) | 500.0 | |||
| Capacitor per chip assumption | 200.0 | |||
| Die per wafer | 7,000.0 | |||
| Wafers (k units) | 14.3 | |||
| China AI GPU | ||||
| Total China GPU shipment (k units) | 1,972.0 | 3,420.0 | 4,696.0 | 5,927.0 |
| Chips per CoWoS wafer assumption | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 |
| CoWoS wafers (k units) | 98.6 | 171.0 | 234.8 | 296.4 |
| Market share (%) | 10% | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Addressable CoWoS wafers (k units) | 9.9 | 25.7 | 47.0 | 74.1 |
| Smartphone SoC | ||||
| D9000 chips shipment (mn units) | 39.5 | 40.5 | 46.0 | 48.3 |
| LSC per dimensity chip | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| LSC (mn units) | 296.3 | 303.8 | 345.0 | 362.3 |
| LSC per wafer | 20,000.0 | 20,000.0 | 20,000.0 | 20,000.0 |
| Penetration assumption | 10% | 80% | 100% | 100% |
| Mediatek Wafers (k units) | 1.5 | 12.2 | 17.3 | 18.1 |
| Other high end chips shipment (mn units) | 79.0 | 81.0 | 92.0 | 96.6 |
| LSC per dimensity chip | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| LSC (mn units) | 592.5 | 607.5 | 690.0 | 724.5 |
| LSC per wafer | 20,000.0 | 20,000.0 | 20,000.0 | 20,000.0 |
| Penetration assumption | 0% | 10% | 50% | 80% |
| Non-Mediatek Wafers (k units) | - | 3.0 | 17.3 | 29.0 |
| AVGO Tomahawk (non-TSM) TH6 CoWoS booking (k units) | 23.0 | 16.1 | 8.1 | 4.0 |
| Total wafers demand (k units) | 34.3 | 78.4 | 143.1 | 160.9 |
| Total wafers sell-in demand (k units) | 112.7 | 143.1 | 160.9 | |
| Supply (non-TSM) | ||||
| PSMC / AP Memory | ||||
| 3D stacking capacity (kwpm) | 4.0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | |
| 3D stacking capacity (kwpy) | 48.0 | 72.0 | 96.0 | |
| Winbond / SEMCO | ||||
| 3D stacking capacity (kwpm) | 4.0 | 4.0 | ||
| 3D stacking capacity (kwpy) | 48.0 | 48.0 | ||
| Total wafers supply (k units) | 48.0 | 120.0 | 144.0 | |
| Supply shortage (%) -57% -16% | -11% |
Source: Morgan Stanley Research estimates
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Valuation Methodology and Risks
Winbond Electronics Corp (2344.TW)
Base case, 2.7x 2026e P/B. This method is in line with the approach we adopt for Greater China memory IDM peers, in view of the industry's high volatility. We believe the stock merits a multiple beyond the high end of its historical band of 0.5-1.5x since 2017, as we are seeing DRAM pricing upside (even though pricing power could moderate into 2H26) and a sustainable NOR price hike.
Risks to Upside
- n NOR Flash pricing increase, driven by stronger-than-expected demand
- n Stronger-than-expected DRAM pricing given ongoing supply shortage
- n Faster-than-expected SLC NAND development
Risks to Downside
- n NOR Flash downcycle, driven by weaker demand
- n Lower-than-expected DRAM pricing given ongoing oversupply
- n Slower-than-expected SLC NAND development
AP Memory Technology Corp (6531.TW)
Base case, derived from a residual income model. Key RI model assumptions include 1) cost of equity constant at 9.2% (2.0% risk-free rate, 6% risk premium, 1.2 beta); 2) payout ratio of 67%; 3) terminal growth rate of 3.0%; and 4) medium-term growth rate of 16.0%.
Risks to Upside
- n Stronger-than-expected consumer demand
- n Faster-than-expected IPD ramp and WoW packaging development
- n Milder competition from partners (foundry, memory house, GPU vendor) or other design houses
Risks to Downside
- n Weaker-than-expected consumer demand
- n Slower-than-expected IPD ramp and WoW packaging development
- n Intensifying competition from partners (foundry, memory house, GPU vendor) or other design houses
Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (6770.TW)
Base case, 2.1x 2026e P/B. This method is in line with our approach for Greater China memory IDM players, in view of the industry's high volatility. Our 2.1x target P/B is higher than the historical average of 1.5x since 2021, reflecting our optimistic view on improved pricing and utilization.
Risks to Upside
- n Pricing power is sustained in 2026.
- n Listing on main board attracts investment fund flows.
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- n Aluminum process enjoys higher margins.
Risks to Downside
- n Competition from China intensifies.
- n Price erosion is faster than expected.
- n Demand from consumer electronics clients weakens further.
- n Inventory in the supply chain takes longer to digest.
Idea
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