PDF 原檔：260607_TFT-LCD_ms_1h-june-panel-px_original.pdf
原始內容
M June 7, 2026 08:35 PM GMT
Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific
TFT-LCD Panel Price Outlook for June 2026: TVs Flat, Monitors +0.2%, NBs Flat MoM
We expect TV panel prices to start trending down from 3Q26 and IT panels from 4Q26. Moreover, emerging businesses will take time to deliver meaningful contribution. Maintain EW on TV panel names, with a relative preference for BOE.
TV panel prices to stay flat MoM in June: We expect mainstream 32", 43", 55", 65" and 75" TV panel pricing to stay flat MoM for the month of June. On the demand side, as earlier restocking since the start of the year tapers off, panel order momentum is slowing. On the supply side, panel makers continue to demonstrate good discipline in controlling output. We continue to believe that TV panel shipments could be below seasonal levels, given the strong 1H26, so panel makers' bargaining power is likely to weaken further in the coming months. Thus, our basecase assumption remains that TV panel prices should trend down from 3Q26, but the decline should not be significant, as supply-side discipline should provide downside support. On a quarterly average basis, we expect TV panel prices to increase by low single-digit % QoQ in 2Q26.
IT panel prices to stay largely stable in June: Monitor panel prices edged up 0.2% MoM, while NBs are expected to remain flat MoM. In general, we continue to expect IT panel prices to remain relatively stable vs. TV panels in the coming quarters.
Opportunities for glass in advanced packaging will take more time: We have been believers in the adoption of glass in advanced packaging architectures (see our deep dive report) as its larger dimensions could offer better cost efficiency. Moreover, it can provide better electrical performance with lower signal loss, reduced mismatch in coefficients of thermal expansion among different materials to mitigate warpage, and greater mechanical strength to resist distortion during manufacturing and operation. That said, the supply chain is still optimizing processes, so this remains less of a story for 2026-27.
Risk/reward less attractive: With panel prices likely to trend down from 3Q26, we view valuations as less attractive at this stage, especially for Taiwan names AUO (2409.TW; 1.4x P/B) and Innolux (3481.TW; 1.9x P/B). We acknowledge potential upside from emerging businesses, where glass could be used in advanced packaging, but meaningful contribution will take time. In addition, panel makers are not the only players seeking to penetrate this market. We therefore view the investment case for these names as less compelling on this angle, given valuations already exceed peak levels of the past few years. Within China, we prefer BOE (000725.SZ; 1.7x P/B) over TCL (000100.SZ; 1.7x P/B) due to its scale advantage and higher concentration in the display business.
Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+
Idea
| Derrick Yang Equity Analyst Derrick.Yang@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2862 |
|---|---|
| Shawn Kim Equity Analyst Shawn.Kim@morganstanley.com | +44 20 7677-1018 |
| Vivi Huang Research Associate Vivi.Huang@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2860 |
| Sharon Shih Equity Analyst Sharon.Shih@morganstanley.com | +886 2 2730-2865 |
Greater China Technology Hardware
Asia Pacific
Industry View
S. Korea Technology
Asia Pacific Industry View
In-Line
Attractive
Exhibit 1 : TFT-LCD TV Panel Price Trends
Jan-26
Source: Trendforce, Morgan Stanley Research
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