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WIN Semiconductors
2026 Taiwan Summit: Optical and Infrastructure to drive mid-to-long-term growth
Q326 revenue tracking in line with guidance
WIN Semi attended our 2026 Taiwan Summit on Sep 14th. August revenue of NT $1,937mn (+2% QoQ and +31%YoY) is tracking at 65% of both UBSe/Street at +12% QoQ. WIN Semi maintained its Q326F revenue guidance of low-teens QoQ growth, mainly driven by optical and infrastructure segments. It noted revenue outlook from WiFi has improved from a previously flattish QoQ to sequentially QoQ growth as a result of stronger router demand, and cellular remains flattish. Management did not provide Q426 guidance, noting that demand will partly depend on smartphone seasonality, although it remains more constructive on the growth outlook for aerospace and nonsmartphone optical markets. In terms of capex, WIN Semi budgeted NT$2-3bn of capex spending in 2026, primarily for GaN and InP expansion.
Laser diode remains in qualification but photodiode ramp accelerates
Management noted that its CW lasers and EML remains under qualification with more meaningful revenue contribution from 2027 and beyond. While WIN Semi is engaging with a broader customer base for laser diode than for photodiode, management noted its near-term optical growth should be driven primarily by the ongoing photodiode ramp, with volumes expected to increase sequentially both MoM and QoQ through H226F and continue strengthening into 2027F. Management also noted that its 50G and 100G VCSEL solutions are already in production, providing additional support for non-smartphone optical growth. As a result, smartphone-related optical is expected to decline from 60-70% of optical revenue historically to around 50% in Q326F as nonsmartphone optical applications expand. Management maintained its target for AI/ datacom revenue (driver, PIC, laser diode, photodiode, and etc) exposure to reach highsingle digits by end-2026, up from a low-single-digit contribution in 2025.
Rising aerospace content strengthens long-term growth outlook
Management remains constructive on the long-term outlook and its margin profile as the business mix shifts toward higher-margin optical and aerospace applications. Aerospace revenue has increased to over 30% of infrastructure revenue (Infrastructure was 30-35% of total sales in Q226F), driven by expanding LEO deployments, direct-tocell connectivity, and rising RF content as additional frequency bands and advanced phased-array antennas are adopted, as well as migration from GaAs to GaN platform. Management views aerospace and optical datacom as key medium- to long-term growth drivers, supporting a more diversified revenue mix and improved margin profile.
Valuation: Maintain Buy rating with a PE-based price target of NT$500
We rate WIN Semi with BUY and PT of NT$500, based on 40x 2027-28E average PE. We believe WIN Semi is well positioned to capture rising infrastructure and optical growth.
| Highlights (NT$m) | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 15,836 | 17,458 | 16,639 | 21,584 | 25,506 | 29,661 | 32,373 | 34,404 |
| EBIT (UBS) | (56) | 762 | 715 | 3,135 | 5,185 | 6,700 | 7,442 | 8,021 |
| Net earnings (UBS) | (80) | 768 | 1,694 | 3,305 | 4,779 | 5,863 | 6,414 | 6,795 |
| EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) | (0.19) | 1.81 | 4.00 | 7.79 | 11.27 | 13.83 | 15.13 | 16.03 |
| DPS (net) (NT$) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 3.90 | 5.64 | 6.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Net (debt) / cash | (17,322) | (14,649) | (5,365) | (7,107) | (6,990) | (6,304) | (4,432) | (4,259) |
| Profitability/valuation | 12/23 | 12/24 | 12/25 | 12/26E | 12/27E | 12/28E | 12/29E | 12/30E |
| EBIT (UBS) margin% | (0.4) | 4.4 | 4.3 | 14.5 | 20.3 | 22.6 | 23.0 | 23.3 |
| ROIC (EBIT)% | (0.2) | 2.4 | 2.8 | 14.7 | 23.4 | 28.7 | 30.7 | 31.2 |
| EV/EBITDA (UBS core) x | 14.2 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 26.8 | 20.3 | 17.1 | 15.8 | 14.3 |
| P/E (UBS, diluted) x | NM | 77.4 | 26.0 | 57.0 | 39.4 | 32.1 | 29.3 | 27.7 |
| Equity FCF (UBS) yield% | 1.6 | 6.2 | 21.6 | (0.5) | 0.9 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.8 |
| Dividend yield (net)% | 0.0 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Source: Company accounts, LSEG Eikon, UBS estimates. Metrics marked as (UBS) have had analyst adjustments applied. Valuations: based on an average share price that year, (E): based on a share price of NT$ 444.00 on 14-Sep-2026 22:30:05 CST
| Equities | Equities |
|---|---|
| Taiwan | Taiwan |
| Semiconductors | Semiconductors |
| 12-month rating | Buy |
| 12m price target | NT$500.00 |
| Price (14 Sep 2026) | NT$444.00 |
| RIC: 3105.TWO BBG: 3105 TT | RIC: 3105.TWO BBG: 3105 TT |
| Trading data and key metrics | Trading data and key metrics |
| 52-wk range | NT$617.00-90.00 |
| Market cap. | NT$188b/US$5.92b |
| Shares o/s | 424m (ORD) |
| Free float | 77% |
| Avg. daily volume ('000) | 23.9 |
| Avg. daily value (m) | NT$9.9 |
| Common s/h equity (12/26E) | NT$42.8b |
| P/BV (12/26E) | 4.4x |
| Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) | 1.1x |
| EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) | EPS (UBS, diluted) (NT$) |
| UBS | Cons. |
| 12/26E 7.79 | 7.03 |
| 12/27E 11.27 | 10.11 |
| 12/28E 13.83 | 12.69 |
Jerry Su
Analyst jerry.su@ubs.com +886-28-722 7306
Annie Chen
Associate Analyst annie.chen@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7281
Forecast returns
| Forecast price appreciation | 12.6% |
|---|---|
| Forecast dividend yield | 0.9% |
| Forecast stock return | 13.5% |
| Market return assumption | 6.3% |
| Forecast excess return | 7.2% |
Company Description
Established in 1999, WIN Semiconductors is a leading foundry for compound semiconductor wafers globally, with 43k 6-inch wafer capacity per month as of end-2022. While it offers different types of compound semiconductors (GaAs, GaN, InP, etc.), the GaAs compound contributes the majority of its revenue. Its products are used to make signal power amplifiers that customers use in networking equipment and communication devices, including base stations and smartphones.
Valuation Method and Risk Statement
We value WIN Semi using PE relative to its historical trading range and peer average.
Investing in WIN Semi involves risks that include, but are not limited to, rapid technological changes, increasing competition, exposure to macroeconomic cycles and uncertain enddemand. Slower wireless technology migration and poor performances by customers could also significantly affect WIN Semi's fundamental performance. WIN Semi's LEO satellite customers may face execution challenges in launching satellites, which will impact WIN Semi's infrastructure revenue growth outlook. On the other hand, its progress on developing and qualifying the optical communication laser diodes will have significant impact to its earnings outlook and market sentiment. Moreover, it is extremely difficult to project the financial results of tech companies, since their operating models are highly volatile and unpredictable.
Quantitative Research Review
UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. The views for this month can be found below. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS Global Research reports; and (ii) where no applicable research report was published that month, the Quantitative Research Review which can be found at https://neo.ubs.com/quantitative, or contact your UBS sales representative for access to the report or the Quantitative Research Team on ubs-quant-answers@ubs.com. A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your UBS sales representative for details and pricing or the Quantitative Research Team on the email above.
WIN Semiconductors
| Question | Response |
|---|---|
| 1. Is the industry structure facing the firm likely to improve or deteriorate over the next six months? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting worse, 3 = no change, 5 = getting better, N/A = no view) | 4 |
| 2. Is the regulatory/government environment facing the firm likely to improve or deteriorate over the next six months? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting tougher 3 = no change, 5 = getting better, N/A = no view) | 3 |
| 3. Over the last 3-6 months in broad terms have things been improving/no change/getting worse for this stock? Rate on a scale of 1-5 (1 = getting a lot worse, 3 = not much change, 5 = getting a lot better, N/A = no view) | 4 |
| 4. Relative to the current CONSENSUS EPS forecast, is the next company EPS update likely to lead to: (1 = negative surprise vs consensus, 3 = in-line with consensus, 5 = positive surprise vs consensus expectations, N/A = no view) | 4 |
| 5. What's driving the difference? | |
| 6. Relative to YOUR current earnings forecast, is there relatively greater risk at the next earnings result of:(1 = downside skew risk to earnings, 3 = equal upside or downside risk to earnings, 5 = upside skew risk to earnings, N/A = no view) | 3 |
| 7. What's driving the difference? | |
| 8. Is there an upcoming catalyst for the company over the next three months? | |
| 9. Is there an actual or approximate date for the catalyst? | |
| 10. Is the catalyst date an actual or approximate date? | |
| 11. What is the catalyst? |
Required Disclosures
This document has been prepared by UBS Securities Pte. Ltd., Taipei Branch, an affiliate of UBS AG. UBS AG, its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates, including former Credit Suisse AG and its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as "UBS".
For information on the ways in which UBS manages conflicts and maintains independence of its UBS Global Research product; historical performance information; certain additional disclosures concerning UBS Global Research recommendations; and terms and conditions for certain third party data used in research report, please visit https://www.ubs.com/disclosures. Unless otherwise indicated, information and data in this report are based on company disclosures including but not limited to annual, interim, quarterly reports and other company announcements. The figures contained in performance charts refer to the past; past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Additional information will be made available upon request. UBS Securities Co. Limited is licensed to conduct securities investment consultancy businesses by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. UBS acts or may act as principal in the debt securities (or in related derivatives) that may be the subject of this report. This recommendation was finalized on: 14 September 2026 02:57 PM GMT. UBS has designated certain UBS Global Research department members as Derivatives Research Analysts where those department members publish research principally on the analysis of the price or market for a derivative, and provide information reasonably sufficient upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction. Where Derivatives Research Analysts co-author research reports with Equity Research Analysts or Economists, the Derivatives Research Analyst is responsible for the derivatives investment views, forecasts, and/or recommendations. Quantitative Research Review: UBS Global Research publishes a quantitative assessment of its analysts' responses to certain questions about the likelihood of an occurrence of a number of short term factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out in this note. For the latest responses, please see the Quantitative Research Review Addendum at the back of this report, where applicable. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS Global Research reports; and (ii) where no applicable research report was published that month, the Quantitative Research Review which can be found at https:// neo.ubs.com/quantitative, or contact your UBS sales representative for access to the report or the Quantitative Research Team on ubsquant-answers@ubs.com. A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your UBS sales representative for details and pricing or the Quantitative Research team on the email above.