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原始內容
First Read
APAC Tech
TW Summit Day 1 on Hardware/Components
Chassis/rail kit suppliers have started to ramp for new server platform
One chassis supplier has noted that, post solid inventory built in Q2, ODMs have slowed down pull-in momentum for one of the major US CSP ASIC suppliers (likely AWS, in our view) in Q3 due to supply bottleneck for memory and cooling components. Inventories are anticipated to be digested by September and anticipate ODM pull-in momentum to resume in September/October. Another supplier noted AWS general server volumes were also down in Q2 on component mismatch (citing memory, CPU, and MLCC shortages), but seeing shipment coming back from Q3. Meanwhile, one supplier noted it has begun to ramp chassis shipments for NVDA Vera Rubin platform with enterprise started pull-in earlier in Q226, followed by major CSPs' orders in Q326; and another supplier noted it anticipates to start shipping VR rail kits in volumes in Q326. Both suppliers noted they have witnessed stronger than expected strength for NVDA GB as well as HGX platform in H126; and picking up strong momentum from enterprise customers as well. The supply chain continues to point to robust AI server growth and healthy general server demand into H226; consistent with UBS expectations for King Slide and Chenbro AI server volumes to take off strongly into Sep/Q426, backed by their leading positions in key GPU and ASIC platforms, with favourable content uplifts.
Other highlights from the day one hardware meetings
1) ZDT anticipates optical module and server business will strengthen from Q226 and more than doubled in 2026 (optical module/server/IC substrate sales mix up from 12% in 2025 to 20%+/45-50% in 2026/2030F). It is building out its high-end PCB capacity, investing NT$80bn in 2026 with more strategic investments in 2027/2028 to focus on iHDI/mSAP, HLC, IC substrates, and advanced FPCs, with production to come online in phases through 2030. 2) Nan Juen noted Eagle Stream remain the mainstream this year but Birch Stream platform has started to take off in Q2/Q3. Small volumes of Vera Rubin rail kits started in Q3 with potential ASIC project to kick off in Q4. 3) Chenbro reiterated +40% YoY 2026 sales target and remained optimistic on 2027 outlook supported by strong chassis momentum from both CSPs/enterprises and rack business expansion (guiding rack sales contribution from 10-15% in 2026 to 15%+ in 2027F). 4) Lenovo targets to outgrow its view for 10%-20% YoY industry PC unit decline while data center business is seeing strong momentum from both CSP and ESMBs with strong AI order backlog and ISG restructuring move demonstrating strong margin expansion. 5) Compal sees stable general server demand and AI server picking up streams from neocloud and enterprise customers while seeing some progress with hyperscalers. It expects 2026 PC shipments to decline mid teens YoY with consumer models under pressure into H226 and seeing de-spec on SSD/DRAM for price-sensitive products. 6) Inventec saw strong growth across AI servers (B300 and higher rack business) and general servers including two top ASIC CPU projects; and expects NB sales to grow double digits YoY in 2026F as it volumes outgrow industry (down HSD YoY vs. market units down teens) on higher commercial exposure (60-70% mix) and higher ASPs.
Stock implications
We stay positive on hardware/component suppliers that commands leading position and/or winning share across major platforms with reasonable valuation and solid growth aspects (King Slide, Unimicron, Kinsus, and Chenbro); and remain Neutral on names with elevating cost pressures (Gigabyte and MSI).
Equities
Global
Technology
Diana Chang
Analyst diana.chang@ubs.com
+886-2-8722 7335
Randy Abrams
Analyst randy.abrams@ubs.com +886-2-8722 7338
Valuation Method and Risk Statement
Investing in the technology sector involves a high degree of risk. Rapid technological changes, increasing competition and exposure to macroeconomic cycles are among the many risks faced by investors in technology stocks. Moreover, it is extremely difficult to project the financial results of tech companies since their operating models are highly volatile and unpredictable. Finally, valuing technology stocks can prove challenging, as neither traditional nor non-traditional valuation measures have provided much insight into how these stocks trade. Valuation methodologies in the sector include target price-book-multiples based on the long term average ROE and the cost of equity.
Required Disclosures
This document has been prepared by UBS Securities Pte. Ltd., Taipei Branch, an affiliate of UBS AG. UBS AG, its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates, including former Credit Suisse AG and its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as "UBS".
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